Line Combos: 2018-19 Starting Roster II

[GNP]

I don’t get why people think he’s not been playing well when players are still playing better with him than without him...

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I guess "statistically" it looks that way to you. Just watching the games though, Perrault doesn't look like a dominate force out there at all. He's more of a mucker, and skates around causing havoc. He sort of plays like Tanev--at 4 times the cost. He's ok --works hard and all, but for $4 mil per year, I think we can spend the money more wisely. I think with even money on both players--I'd take Tanev who makes $ 1.1 mil per year.

I think he'll be traded after this season is over.

 

[Jetshockey]

Ehlers scheifele wheeler
Connor hayes laine
Perreault little roslovic
copp lowry tanev

 

[Whileee]

I just meant that I would rather be a team that competes every year and eventually wins a cup than the team that wins a cup right away and is a bottom feeder for the next 10 years

I didnt mean follow how they built.
Washington might've had a cup sooner if they didnt give up futures

Jets won't be a bottom feeder for a long time with a core that includes Scheifele, Laine, Ehlers, Connor, Roslovic, Lowry, Copp, Morrissey, Hellebuyck, etc. Very good teams have been built around a lot less than that. The Jets need to solve their Trouba issue, but he's a valuable asset that they should be able to use to make things work. Add to that a pretty good pipeline with Vesalainen, Niku, Samberg, Appleton, Poolman, Kovacevic, Chisholm, Berdin, etc. and they are miles and miles ahead of where the franchise's prospect pool was in 2011.

Clearly, they need to balance and want to ensure not only short-term success, but also long-term competitiveness. Hoping to be compete every year and "eventually win a cup" is a pretty uncertain strategy. When you have a young core like the Jets have, it makes sense to try to capitalize and increase odds of success during the prime window, especially in a salary cap world. I think the Jets will continue to put a lot of resources into scouting and development and churn out some good players beyond the 1st round. With a strong core and prospect pool like they have now, they don't need to hit on too many gems to really have an impact. For example, if Niku and Samberg turn into bona fide top-4 D as it seems they might, that will carry them forward as a competitive team for some time to come.

 

[Whileee]

I don’t get why people think he’s not been playing well when players are still playing better with him than without him...

His impact has diminished substantially this season, and I think that some of those "with and without" metrics can be a bit deceiving. Little does way better with Perreault than without, but what have been Little's counterfactuals? Laine, and Connor, who have been bringing everyone's shot metrics down this season. Tanev and Lowry haven't been better with Perreault. Also, he's continued to have the reverse Midas touch when it comes to goal differentials (underperforms in relation to expectations based on shot metrics). At some point maybe it's scoring / offensive talent that's lacking, not luck. Take away his PP contributions this year and he's not that much better than replacement level 5v5 (based on a GAR analysis).

Eye test tells me that he isn't making as much happen offensively, has been less good at zone exits, and is taking too many penalties for a player of his ilk.

I hope he turns it around and becomes the really effective forward he has been (maybe with Little and lesser competition). Having a killer 3/4 line with Perreault and Little could be a secret sauce for the Jets down the stretch and into the playoffs.

 

[jetsforever]

The main question at this point seems to be which of the three young wingers goes on the top line
I'm hoping Laine stays for now, and Ehlers gets a shot if Laine comes down
Knowing Maurice, Connor will be there before too long though

 

[DashingDane]

The main question at this point seems to be which of the three young wingers goes on the top line
I'm hoping Laine stays for now, and Ehlers gets a shot if Laine comes down
Knowing Maurice, Connor will be there before too long though

I hope Laine stays as well but would take the bet that Connor is back up there as early as tomorrow.

I'd like to see this

Laine - Scheifele - Wheeler
Connor - Hayes - Rosie
Frenchie - Little - Ehlers
Tanev - Lurch - Copp

 

[Arthur Fonzarelli]

I hope Laine stays as well but would take the bet that Connor is back up there as early as tomorrow.

I'd like to see this

Laine - Scheifele - Wheeler
Connor - Hayes - Rosie
Frenchie - Little - Ehlers
Tanev - Lurch - Copp

TLC has always been CLT. Lets' not confuse people.

Petan took more shifts at RW this season (virtually none) than Copp has in his career.

 

[grieves]

I hope Laine stays as well but would take the bet that Connor is back up there as early as tomorrow.

I'd like to see this

Laine - Scheifele - Wheeler
Connor - Hayes - Rosie
Frenchie - Little - Ehlers
Tanev - Lurch - Copp

This would have to mean a balanced TOI for all lines. Top-9-heavy deployment.

I would probably experiment with the RW positions in your lineup to see what works best but otherwise I kind of like it. I wouldn't be married to Wheeler on the first line for instance. Maybe after trial and error he goes back there but he can't be a piece that doesn't move just because.

But then again we really don't have much time for experimenting so maybe my plan is actually not feasible at all anymore unless we really start getting on that now (our position in the league would actually allow it). I dunno.

 

[voyageur]

I am so proud of Chevy for making smart moves. As much as I liked Stone, I kept thinking, where and how does he fit?

Way I see it

Ehlers-Scheif-Wheeler
Connor-Hayes-Laine
Perreault-Little-Roslovic
Tanev-Lowry-Copp
------------------------------
Appleton as 1st call up, Hendricks for the odd game, Lindholm as depth.

Forwards can be moved around. I prefer Ehlers to Laine on the top line, because of the speed. Hayes with Laine because of the size. Bottom 2 lines because of chemistry. But there are different looks that can be tried, including uniting Ehlers-Laine, Connor-Roslovic or Hayes on the wing, and Copp in the middle.

Morrissey-Trouba
Beaulieu-Buff
Kulikov-Myers
--------------------
Chiarot-Niku
Morrow-Poolman
Kiselevich

I know people will say wtf, Beaulieu with Buff. I've seen Beaulieu play enough to know that he has some tools in the toolbox, his skating is top notch, but the mental lapses are killer. For me it is a competition. His skating puts him ahead of Benny in my view. He's also a big hitter. Niku is a great skater too, but I still see him as #4 on the right side, at least that is how he has been deployed. He may move to LD, whether or not he can play with Buff is a complete unknown, so I won't say yea or nay until I see it. The fact we have Morrow and Poolman as our 5th pairing when Nashville didn't upgrade their d makes me very optimistic.


Hellebuyck
Brossoit
----------------
Comrie

That is pretty good depth for a playoff run

I think we have strength at forward, through 4 lines, enough good defensemen to balance out the flaws in others, that we have made ourselves serious contenders at this deadline. Can't say favourites, especially with refereeing, but a team to reckon with.

 

[garret9]

His impact has diminished substantially this season, and I think that some of those "with and without" metrics can be a bit deceiving. Little does way better with Perreault than without, but what have been Little's counterfactuals? Laine, and Connor, who have been bringing everyone's shot metrics down this season. Tanev and Lowry haven't been better with Perreault. Also, he's continued to have the reverse Midas touch when it comes to goal differentials (underperforms in relation to expectations based on shot metrics). At some point maybe it's scoring / offensive talent that's lacking, not luck. Take away his PP contributions this year and he's not that much better than replacement level 5v5 (based on a GAR analysis).

Eye test tells me that he isn't making as much happen offensively, has been less good at zone exits, and is taking too many penalties for a player of his ilk.

I hope he turns it around and becomes the really effective forward he has been (maybe with Little and lesser competition). Having a killer 3/4 line with Perreault and Little could be a secret sauce for the Jets down the stretch and into the playoffs.

Agree to disagree.

 

[FonRiesen]

I've been finished with any line combo that includes Schiefele - Wheeler since the end of December. They NEED to be split up at 5v5, if for no other reason than to even out ice time (but there are many other reasons, too!).

 

[garret9]

That 3rd line is much better with Copp than Perrault. Little and Laine played better this season with Roslovic than him.

A wise stat person I know once said this:

Now if we use RAPM, which looks at how much players do better with and without someone, but also adjusts for factors like the other linemates, linematching, schedule, etc...

1) Perreault has had a better impact than Connor in Corsi, xGoals.... AND actual goal differential. In fact, Connor sits in bottom 5/15 for the Jets in all 3 measures. Yet no one is asking him out of the top six.
2) Laine literately sits in last of the Jets 15 forward skaters in all 3 measures.
3) Little is same in goals but lower in xGoals and Corsi.

 

[Ukkosenjumala]

Perreault doesn't seem to drive the play like he used to, last match was pretty usual for him lately with the play dying on his stick. I think he's the odd man out going forward (Not that he isn't a better player than some others on the team). I would stack the 2nd line with Connor Hayes and Ehlers right now.

 

[Neuf]

Perreault doesn't seem to drive the play like he used to, last match was pretty usual for him lately with the play dying on his stick. I think he's the odd man out going forward (Not that he isn't a better player than some others on the team). I would stack the 2nd line with Connor Hayes and Ehlers right now.

I agree with getting Hayes the best of the best to work with to get him settled. I'd do that second line and bump MP down.

 

[Adam da bomb]

A wise stat person I know once said this:

Now if we use RAPM, which looks at how much players do better with and without someone, but also adjusts for factors like the other linemates, linematching, schedule, etc...

1) Perreault has had a better impact than Connor in Corsi, xGoals.... AND actual goal differential. In fact, Connor sits in bottom 5/15 for the Jets in all 3 measures. Yet no one is asking him out of the top six.
2) Laine literately sits in last of the Jets 15 forward skaters in all 3 measures.
3) Little is same in goals but lower in xGoals and Corsi.

A) are you comparing a Vet to kids who are only goin to get better and be future of org? When was the last time Perrault scored? Laine got a goal and assist last game. Connor had several points 2 games before that. They also don't make that spinorama pass. Perrault vs little. Perrault is no centre. If Perrault wants to play centre let him. ... crickets. By eye-test Perrault is slower has no shot. Are you serious no one has wanted Laine out of top 6? There were calls to bench him during slump. Everyone has mentioned Connor has been weak in his own end. The upside he gets goals.

 

[garret9]

A) are you comparing a Vet to kids who are only goin to get better and be future of org? When was the last time Perrault scored? Laine got a goal and assist last game. Connor had several points 2 games before that. They also don't make that spinorama pass. Perrault vs little. Perrault is no centre. If Perrault wants to play centre let him. ... crickets. By eye-test Perrault is slower has no shot. Are you serious no one has wanted Laine out of top 6? There were calls to bench him during slump. Everyone has mentioned Connor has been weak in his own end. The upside he gets goals.

Goals but being outscored < fewer goals but outscoring

 

[Duke749]

I don’t think Perreault has been going all out this year. I think he’s one of the guys trying to save themselves. Lowry is another.

 

[garret9]

I don’t think Perreault has been going all out this year. I think he’s one of the guys trying to save themselves. Lowry is another.

Like I’m not arguing Perreault hasn’t been as good this year. In numbers that he normally dominates in he’s just “one of the better ones.” That’s a step back, no question.

But his on ice sh% is in the tank and he’s not the one making every one of his linemates shot when and how they are.

A lot of perception being swayed by %s once again.

 

[Duke749]

Like I’m not arguing Perreault hasn’t been as good this year. In numbers that he normally dominates in he’s just “one of the better ones.” That’s a step back, no question.

But his on ice sh% is in the tank and he’s not the one making every one of his linemates shot when and how they are.

A lot of perception being swayed by %s once again.

For me (eye test alone), he hasn’t been getting into the dirty areas as much or laying his body in the line as much. The S% numbers are always intriguing.

 

[garret9]

For me (eye test alone), he hasn’t been getting into the dirty areas as much or laying his body in the line as much. The S% numbers are always intriguing.

Issue is his sh% going down isn't the only thing, but his linemates *and more so than any one individual can have an impact on*.
Some of the downturn is aging, which we have and should expected.
Most of it is PDO though, and that will bounce up.

 

[Duke749]

Issue is his sh% going down isn't the only thing, but his linemates *and more so than any one individual can have an impact on*.
Some of the downturn is aging, which we have and should expected.
Most of it is PDO though, and that will bounce up.

Hopefully right around the middle of April.

 

[garret9]

Hopefully right around the middle of April.

I just checked, heck Perreault is actually performing just fine in individual shot conversion.

His individual expected Fenwick sh% is 6.33 and he's been shooting 8.79, only Jets higher were lucky-Lemieux, Scheifele, and Ehlers. Despite this, the team has only converted 4.53% while expected shooting percentage is 5.21% with Perreault on the ice.

So looks like it's not Perreault's individual shooting, whether by conversion or by shot choice, that has caused the dip.

 

[Adam da bomb]

Goals but being outscored < fewer goals but outscoring

Goals = scoring

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

For me (eye test alone), he hasn’t been getting into the dirty areas as much or laying his body in the line as much. The S% numbers are always intriguing.

This is something that was bound to happen when Perreault decided he didn't want to be injured so much of the time. The style that made him so good also landed him on the injured list.

Should have been traded at the last draft while his value was still relatively high. Could have kept Armia.

 

[Duke749]

This is something that was bound to happen when Perreault decided he didn't want to be injured so much of the time. The style that made him so good also landed him on the injured list.

Should have been traded at the last draft while his value was still relatively high. Could have kept Armia.

There’s no guarantee that had the same value to another team at the time though. I still think we need to wait to see what happens when the games start to really matter.