Line Combos: 2018-19 Starting Roster II

[Mortimer Snerd]

There’s no guarantee that had the same value to another team at the time though. I still think we need to wait to see what happens when the games start to really matter.

Of course there is no guarantee. There are never any guarantees. Did Hayes come with a guarantee?

He is probably going to have to be moved at the draft this year, so we were only ever keeping him for 1 more year. If he doesn't turn it on for the rest of this year, his 4.125 mil contract won't be easy to move.

 

[Duke749]

Of course there is no guarantee. There are never any guarantees. Did Hayes come with a guarantee?

He is probably going to have to be moved at the draft this year, so we were only ever keeping him for 1 more year. If he doesn't turn it on for the rest of this year, his 4.125 mil contract won't be easy to move.

Perrault was likely always going to be moved after this season one way or another. I don’t think it’ll be that hard. He’s still a solid player. The cap hit won’t be a big burden for a lot of teams.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Perrault was likely always going to be moved after this season one way or another. I don’t think it’ll be that hard. He’s still a solid player. The cap hit won’t be a big burden for a lot of teams.

Could be. We'll see.

 

[garret9]

Goals = scoring

Pretending we are in a world with no variance or luck and everything aside from talent between two players is exactly equal:

Player A plays 500 mins. He scores 5 goals. Goal differential -3.
Player B plays 50o mins. He scores 3 goals. Goal differential +3.

Player A scores more; Player B outscores more.

Player B is better.

 

[Neuf]

 

[Whileee]

Agree to disagree.

Fair enough... I'll just leave this here. Very un-Perreault like this year...

 

[Whileee]

I just checked, heck Perreault is actually performing just fine in individual shot conversion.

His individual expected Fenwick sh% is 6.33 and he's been shooting 8.79, only Jets higher were lucky-Lemieux, Scheifele, and Ehlers. Despite this, the team has only converted 4.53% while expected shooting percentage is 5.21% with Perreault on the ice.

So looks like it's not Perreault's individual shooting, whether by conversion or by shot choice, that has caused the dip.

He just doesn't seem to be creating a lot of good chances for his line .. certainly not as much as we're used to. And that penalty differential is pretty abysmal for a small, skilled forward.

 

[Maukkis]

He just doesn't seem to be creating a lot of good chances for his line .. certainly not as much as we're used to. And that penalty differential is pretty abysmal for a small, skilled forward.

His line has nobody to finish whatever he creates.

 

[garret9]

Fair enough... I'll just leave this here. Very un-Perreault like this year...

View attachment 194333

Again, as I have pointed out, Perreault has had On-Ice Sh% issues. He’s not as good but it’s only been a small difference.

And, as I have pointed out before also, EW’s WAR is highly impacted by on ice sh%.

If you want to look at the non-sh% aspects of EW’s WAR you use RAPM which says that Perreault is not playing as well but also still top 6 performer.

 

[Whileee]

Again, as I have pointed out, Perreault has had On-Ice Sh% issues. He’s not as good but it’s only been a small difference.

And, as I have pointed out before also, EW’s WAR is highly impacted by on ice sh%.

If you want to look at the non-sh% aspects of EW’s WAR you use RAPM which says that Perreault is not playing as well but also still top 6 performer.

My point is that I think his play has really dipped this season, and it's not just on ice sh%. His xGPM_60 has dipped to his second lowest total in his Winnipeg years, much lower than last season. He's taking more penalties and drawing fewer penalties per 60 than in any previous year and has the worst penalty differential among Jets' forwards by a good margin, and penalties drive me crazy.

 

[garret9]

My point is that I think his play has really dipped this season, and it's not just on ice sh%. His xGPM_60 has dipped to his second lowest total in his Winnipeg years, much lower than last season. He's taking more penalties and drawing fewer penalties per 60 than in any previous year and has the worst penalty differential among Jets' forwards by a good margin, and penalties drive me crazy.

I never argued his performance hasn't dipped.
I argued against him not still being one of the Jets better players and deserving to be scratched.

 

[Whileee]

I never argued his performance hasn't dipped.
I argued against him not still being one of the Jets better players and deserving to be scratched.

Shouldn't be scratched with this line-up, but as a thought experiment which forward would you scratch before him on the current roster?

 

[Adam da bomb]

Shouldn't be scratched with this line-up, but as a thought experiment which forward would you scratch before him on the current roster?

Prediction: Roslovic.

 

[Whileee]

Prediction: Roslovic.

Roslovic is easy.

I should have said which forwards. If Perreault is top-6 in performance, can we come up with at least 4-5 forwards that should be scratched before Perreault?

 

[Adam da bomb]

Roslovic is easy.

I should have said which forwards. If Perreault is top-6 in performance, can we come up with at least 4-5 forwards that should be scratched before Perreault?

I imagine Connor because of the numbers showing he is being outscored, despite the fact that he got the game tying goal.
So
Laine Scheif Wheeler
Perrault Hayes Ehlers
little Lowry Tanev/Connor
Connor Copp Roslovic.

 

[voyageur]

I still think you keep Little in the middle

Laine-Scheif-Wheeler
Connor-Hayes-Ehlers
Perreault-Little-Roslovic
Tanev-Lowry-Copp

By moving one of the top 6 wingers down to Little's line, you can create 3 scoring lines easy enough.

 

[Whileee]

Wasn't sure where to put this, but I think it's an interesting take on the perspectives about the role of centres and wingers. As I've posted before, I don't think that offensive productivity depends primarily on a C, if you have really good play-driving wingers. In most schemes, a C has a more important role in the defensive zone. Maybe it's less important to have an offensive #2C if you are loaded on the wing with play drivers and have C's that can play a strong game in the D zone.

 

[DRW204]

the difference in numbers that 55-26 put up with and with and w/o 27 are quite alarming. why the vast disparity in results? Is Ehlers that much stronger/toolsy offensively where this combo just flat out possesses the puck at a higher rate compared to 81 or 29?

 

[Duke749]

the difference in numbers that 55-26 put up with and with and w/o 27 are quite alarming. why the vast disparity in results? Is Ehlers that much stronger/toolsy offensively where this combo just flat out possesses the puck at a higher rate compared to 81 or 29?

He’s got a big brain

 

[DashingDane]

He’s got a big brain

I think you meant chin

 

[Gil Fisher]

Again, as I have pointed out, Perreault has had On-Ice Sh% issues. He’s not as good but it’s only been a small difference.

And, as I have pointed out before also, EW’s WAR is highly impacted by on ice sh%.

If you want to look at the non-sh% aspects of EW’s WAR you use RAPM which says that Perreault is not playing as well but also still top 6 performer.

Is on-ice sh% why Copp's 5v5 GAR looks soooo good?

 

[Whileee]

Is on-ice sh% why Copp's 5v5 GAR looks soooo good?

Partly, but he also leads Jets' forwards in xGPM_60, and it's not very close. He's having an outstanding season however look at it.

 

[Gil Fisher]

Partly, but he also leads Jets' forwards in xGPM_60, and it's not very close. He's having an outstanding season however look at it.

It would have been nice to see him get some 2nd line centre this year....but i guess this keeps his salary requests in check.

 

[10Ducky10]

If Little is to be utilized as a winger...

Laine Scheif Little
Copp Hayes Wheeler
MP Lowry Tanev
KC Roslo Ehlers

 

[Whileee]

Copp is leading the Jets' forwards in Evolving Hockey's expected goals for per 60 (xGF_60, RAPM) by a considerable margin. I'm not convinced that you couldn't put Copp between two very talented wingers like Ehlers and Connor and run that as your second line. He has speed, decent vision, some finishing ability and is outstanding defensively. Ehlers and Connor are dynamic enough to create offense.

Next year...

Laine-Scheifele-Wheeler
Connor-Copp-Ehlers
Vesalainen-Little-Roslovic
Perreault-Lowry-Appleton