Prospect Info: 2015-2016 Prospect Stats and Discussion

[Blue Bullet]

It is popular these days to do a value chart for draft selections. Recently on TSN, Travis Yost did one based on adjusted games played which is a good starting point. However, it misses the fact that games played only measure the quantity not the quality of games played. For those following along to my blog, you will know that most of my research has been in trying to group forwards and defenseman based on quality of play using career avg PPG for forwards and career ATOI for defensemen. Combining my work with the fantastic work done by Michael Schuckers I was able to come up with a value chart for first year eligible forwards and defenseman. These are the results:

I also look into some trade scenarios for the 2016 draft using my draft pick value chart. For example, if the Leafs traded down to 2nd overall Yost suggests all the Jets need to add is the 96th overall pick. My chart suggests otherwise.

To read more, CLICK HERE

 

[Aceboogie]

It is popular these days to do a value chart for draft selections. Recently on TSN, Travis Yost did one based on adjusted games played which is a good starting point. However, it misses the fact that games played only measure the quantity not the quality of games played. For those following along to my blog, you will know that most of my research has been in trying to group forwards and defenseman based on quality of play using career avg PPG for forwards and career ATOI for defensemen. Combining my work with the fantastic work done by Michael Schuckers I was able to come up with a value chart for first year eligible forwards and defenseman. These are the results:

I also look into some trade scenarios for the 2016 draft using my draft pick value chart. For example, if the Leafs traded down to 2nd overall Yost suggests all the Jets need to add is the 96th overall pick. My chart suggests otherwise.

To read more, CLICK HERE

Awesome! this addressed my major issues with draft position values (no quality of GP). Ill be using this is the future for sure

One quick note, that drop from 7 to 8 is crazy

 

[suddeninterest]

From quickly looking at the numbers I see

1. The value starts to even out after pick 2 (~40 point drop from 1 to 3 and ~ 40 point drop from 3 to 12). Which I would agree with for this draft, I don't think the drop is as large between Pulj and the next tier as it is between Matthews/Laine and Pulj/the next tier.
2. There is actually a significant advantage to holding a top 4 pick instead of a top 5. 9 points difference between 4 and 5 which is similar to 8 points between 3 and 4. 5-7 are all similar value with another drop at 7 to 8.
3. After pick 9 the value begins to decrease very slowly (1 to 2 points or less per selection).
4. The first few picks in the second round hold significantly more value relative to other picks in the second round.

So what this brief look tells me is that if we are trading down in terms of pure picks, we shouldn't be going below 7th, and the 20th for Ari to move up is perfectly fair value. Our second rounder is a reasonably valuable asset and shouldn't be just a throw in.

 

[TonyAndrock]

I compiled lists for all the AHL Western Conference teams in terms of who's under contract for next season and all the free agents. They can be found here: http://highlandparkhockey.blogspot.com/2016/06/offseason-guide-part-2-ahl-free-agents.html

Any corrections I need to make with Bakersfield's list?

Bakersfield Condors (Edmonton Oilers)

Under Contract

Forwards: Scott Allen (AHL), Joey Benik (AHL), Drake Caggiula, Gregory Chase, Braden Christoffer, Ryan Hamilton (2-year AHL deal), Jujhar Khaira, Mitchell Moroz, Kyle Platzer, Patrick Russell, Jere Sallinen, Anton Slepyshev and Bogdan Yakimov

Defensemen: Ben Betker, Caleb Jones, Joey Laleggia, Griffin Reinhart, Dillon Simpson

Goaltenders: Nick Ellis and Eetu Laurikainen

Impending Free Agents

NHL UFA: defensemen Brad Hunt and Nikita Nikitin and forwards Rob Klinkhammer and Andrew Miller

NHL RFA: goaltender Niklas Lundstrom (signed 1-year deal with IF Björklöven in Sweden2), defensemen David Musil, Jordan Oesterle and forwards Kessy Kale and Tyler Pitlick

AHL UFA: goaltender Ty Rimmer, defenseman Nick Pageau and forwards Josh Currie, Matthew Ford, Alexis Loiseau, Philip McRae, Kyle Platzer, Marc-Olivier Roy and Joshua Winquist

 

[Paralyzer]

I compiled lists for all the AHL Western Conference teams in terms of who's under contract for next season and all the free agents. They can be found here: http://highlandparkhockey.blogspot.com/2016/06/offseason-guide-part-2-ahl-free-agents.html

Any corrections I need to make with Bakersfield's list?

Bakersfield Condors (Edmonton Oilers)

Under Contract

Forwards: Scott Allen (AHL), Joey Benik (AHL), Drake Caggiula, Gregory Chase, Braden Christoffer, Ryan Hamilton (2-year AHL deal), Jujhar Khaira, Mitchell Moroz, Kyle Platzer, Patrick Russell, Jere Sallinen, Anton Slepyshev and Bogdan Yakimov

Defensemen: Ben Betker, Caleb Jones, Joey Laleggia, Griffin Reinhart, Dillon Simpson

Goaltenders: Nick Ellis and Eetu Laurikainen

Impending Free Agents

NHL UFA: defensemen Brad Hunt and Nikita Nikitin and forwards Rob Klinkhammer and Andrew Miller

NHL RFA: goaltender Niklas Lundstrom (signed 1-year deal with IF Björklöven in Sweden2), defensemen David Musil, Jordan Oesterle and forwards Kessy Kale and Tyler Pitlick

AHL UFA: goaltender Ty Rimmer, defenseman Nick Pageau and forwards Josh Currie, Matthew Ford, Alexis Loiseau, Philip McRae, Kyle Platzer, Marc-Olivier Roy and Joshua Winquist

How come Platzer is under contract and a AHL UFA at the same time?

 

[McMozesmadness]

Ethan Bear was not invited to Canada's World Junior summer development camp.

 

[JordanGalhanth]

Ethan Bear was not invited to Canada's World Junior summer development camp.

Typical. As bad as the Oilers OBC was, the Team Canada OBC gives them a serious run for their money.

 

[suddeninterest]

I wouldn't be too concerned, if he starts the season really strong and goes ppg+ while improving his skating/strength a little (2 things within the realm of possibility) he should get a selection invite I would think. To be fair, his offense really exploded this season and I think people (Oiler brass included) wanna see that it wasn't a fluke/flash in the pan and that he can continue it, and improve his 5v5 numbers as well.

 

[Aceboogie]

Ethan Bear was not invited to Canada's World Junior summer development camp.

Thats pretty surprising although Canada does have strong D. I had him as their PP specialist D considering he tore up WHL last year on PP. He was pretty muh outright best D on PP in WHL and maybe even CHL last year. Didnt have him as a top 4 D on that team. So maybe they found better options

 

[40oz]

Thats pretty surprising although Canada does have strong D. I had him as their PP specialist D considering he tore up WHL last year on PP. He was pretty muh outright best D on PP in WHL and maybe even CHL last year. Didnt have him as a top 4 D on that team. So maybe they found better options

Plus his chemistry with Barzal, you think HC would value that.



edit:
If you're into fancy stats for prospects, here's the DraftBuzz Hockey Prospect Volatility Index. They ranked Ethan Bear as the #1 Darkhorse Defenseman.

http://www.draftbuzzhockey.com/#!dgs-1-7/cuzj

 

[Zaddy]

http://teamusa.usahockey.com/page/show/2602432-original-u-s-camp-roster

Caleb Jones invited to the US roster at least. He should have a reasonably good chance at making the team I would think. Interesting to note is that Sean Day got an invite.

 

[Bryanbryoil]

Ethan Bear was not invited to Canada's World Junior summer development camp.

Who were the D and more specifically the RD that were invited?

 

[Zaddy]

Who were the D and more specifically the RD that were invited?

http://www.hockeycanada.ca/en-ca/Team-Canada/Men/Junior/2016-17/Camps/Roster-Development

RHD's:

Dante Fabbro (Penticton Vees, BCHL)
Callan Foote (Kelowna Rockets, WHL)
Connor Hobbs (Regina Pats, WHL)
Noah Juulsen (Everett Silvertips, WHL)
Jeremy Roy (Sherbrooke Phoenix, QMJHL)
Philippe Myers (Rouyn-Noranda Huskies, QMJHL)
Matthew Spencer (Peterborough Petes, OHL)

Bit weird three WHL guys make it over Bear. Callan Foote isn't even eligible to play in the WJC as he's an american and has only played 1 year in Canada.

 

[Beacon]

Ed strikes oil again with Jesse. The past is horrible, but the future looks amazing for this team. Multiple Cups in the future so long as no rash moves are made out of frustration with the past. Just let the youth develop. Too much talent for it to not work out.

 

[Talisman]

does Anybody have clue how Ethan bear is progressing?.

 

[ChaoticOrange]

What do you think of this lineup?

Maroon-McD-Puljujärvi
Hall-Draisaitl-???
Pouliot-RNH-???
Benson-???-???

Davidson-???
Oesterle-???
Niemelainen-???

It would get buried unless the three defensive ??? are Subban, Josi, and Hamonic. Full stop.

 

[40oz]

Looks like the Oilers have invited Alexandre Fortin to camp



http://www.eliteprospects.com/player.php?player=213752

 

[Zaddy]

Looks like the Oilers have invited Alexandre Fortin to camp



http://www.eliteprospects.com/player.php?player=213752

Watched him a little bit in the Mem Cup. Good player, could make an impression at camp.

 

[aspin]

Does anybody have a link to the orientation camp invitee list?

 

[BarDownBobo]

Does anybody have a link to the orientation camp invitee list?

http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showthread.php?t=2100017

 

[Caser]

After missing this season due to injury, Daniil Zharkov has signed a 1-year deal with Torpedo team in KHL.

 

[40oz]

After missing this season due to injury, Daniil Zharkov has signed a 1-year deal with Torpedo team in KHL.

Really hope he rebounds, seems like a good kid.

 

[Brock]

http://ohlprospects.blogspot.ca/2016/07/30-teams-in-30-days-edmonton-oilers.html

Each summer I review the progress, rank, and provide prognostication on each NHL team's OHL prospects. Edmonton is today (Niemelainen and Wells).

 

[BoldNewLettuce]

http://ohlprospects.blogspot.ca/2016/07/30-teams-in-30-days-edmonton-oilers.html

Each summer I review the progress, rank, and provide prognostication on each NHL team's OHL prospects. Edmonton is today (Niemelainen and Wells).

http://ohlprospects.blogspot.ca/2016/07/30-teams-in-30-days-edmonton-oilers.html

as do I.

 

[40oz]

No Oilers prospects at the WJC summer camp for Team Canada, but they should have players on two teams playing exhibition games in Plymouth next week. Caleb Jones for the US and Niemelainen and Rasanen for Finland.

US Roster and game schedule
Finland Roster