Prospect Info: 2015-2016 Prospect Stats and Discussion

[BoldNewLettuce]

In my latest post at the bluebulletreport.com I delve into the expected draft value of a CHL forward selected in the top 90 overall. I have grouped the forwards based on both a statistical measurement called NHLP (my point prediction model for a CHL forwards best season in the NHL) and by draft selection. I than calculate the % of forwards that have played 100 NHL games and the average PPG of those forwards that do end up playing 100+ games.

These are the results:

To compare, these are the results for the expected value of all forwards in the top 90 (not just CHL).

To read the full post and how these results came about and how to utilize them best, click here.

how would I read that first line?

"Of players drafted 1st overall, 100% of those players playing over 100 games ....showed themselves capable of scoring 70 points in a season"

if so some of them would be redundant. As in....do you care if a player is capable of scoring both 60 points and 40 points?

 

[Caser]

Impressive. Is the B team just a practice team before the World championships? or does Russia have 2 teams?

B-team is a U25 Russia NT that was created to get younger players some practice on international stage, this team played friendly games against Hungary and Kazakhstan, probably there will be more games next season.

 

[BoldNewLettuce]

These commentators love Bear

 

[BarDownBobo]

John Marino and the Tri City Storm won the USHL's Clark Cup tonight. Marino only had two assists in 11 playoff games, but he had a solid regular season putting up 30 points in 56 games. He's definitely not on the level as fellow 2015 draftees Jones, Bear and Paigin; but I really feel he could be a solid prospect when he leaves Harvard in 4 years.

 

[Zaddy]

John Marino and the Tri City Storm won the USHL's Clark Cup tonight. Marino only had two assists in 11 playoff games, but he had a solid regular season putting up 30 points in 56 games. He's definitely not on the level as fellow 2015 draftees Jones, Bear and Paigin; but I really feel he could be a solid prospect when he leaves Harvard in 4 years.

Sweet. Always nice to see a prospect having success and winning. Never a bad thing. He's a project but after 4 years at college he'll probably have a good shot at being a bottom-pairing RHD if nothing else. Maybe he develops into a Mark Fayne type with a little more offense. That'd be very welcome for a 6th round pick.

 

[40oz]

I never put much stock into the estimated TOI for CHL players. Aside from that this is a pretty neat tool over at prospect-stats.com

link

 

[Aceboogie]

I never put much stock into the estimated TOI for CHL players. Aside from that this is a pretty neat tool over at prospect-stats.com

link

Caleb Jones actually had a mighty dandy year offensively. He had a great year even strength wise. Further to that he was 3rd highest scorer on his team, 2 points behind 2nd.

Hes also super young and this was his first season in WHL. Take Doughtery for reference . Taken 2nd round 51st in 2014, he had a full NCAA year at Wisconson before this year and Jones still outscored him

Id say 5x5 scoring for D is a lot more transferable to NHL than PP points are. And Jones was top 5 for WHL in this area, as a rookie. Next year him being close to PPG with a large majority at ES would be huge

As for Bear, he ran the show on PP. Best PP D in the league. If he wants to become a PP QB is NHL hes right on track. Both guys far outperforming draft positions tho

 

[nexttothemoon]

If all 3 of Bear/Jones/Paigin become NHL dmen... that would be a stunning draft and would make up for the multi-year dry spell in late rounds that has been ongoing in this org for so long now.

 

[Bryanbryoil]

If all 3 of Bear/Jones/Paigin become NHL dmen... that would be a stunning draft and would make up for the multi-year dry spell in late rounds that has been ongoing in this org for so long now.

That's probably wishful thinking IMO. If 1 makes it that's very good, if 2 make it that's awesome. If all 3 make it that's damn near like winning the lottery.

 

[Aceboogie]

If all 3 of Bear/Jones/Paigin become NHL dmen... that would be a stunning draft and would make up for the multi-year dry spell in late rounds that has been ongoing in this org for so long now.

2015 draft ending up with McDavid, and 3 NHL D would be like Montreals 2008 Draft of Price, Subban, Patches. Thatd be amazing

 

[40oz]

2015 draft ending up with McDavid, and 3 NHL D would be like Montreals 2008 Draft of Price, Subban, Patches. Thatd be amazing

Subban and Pacciorety were drafted in 2007 (McDonough too), Price was drafted in 2006.

 

[Seachd]

subban and pacciorety were drafted in 2007 (mcdonough too), price was drafted in 2006.

2005.

 

[40oz]

2005.

Damnit. I got too cocky. I'm gonna blame this one on the lockout.

 

[Aceboogie]

Update on Marino

http://oilersnation.com/2016/5/29/grand-marino



Luedeke is a scout for RedLine report

Marino is a longshots longshot. I could see 4 years in NCAA and then 2.5 in AHL. So 6.5 away from anything if all goes well. But best attribute a D can have is smarts. Maybe hell develop like Davidson has

 

[belair]

No news about it today, so I guess that playoff run wasn't enough to get Keven Bouchard an ELC from the Oilers?

 

[BarDownBobo]

No news about it today, so I guess that playoff run wasn't enough to get Keven Bouchard an ELC from the Oilers?

The official deadline is sometime tomorrow, probably 3pm EST like the trade deadline, but I don't imagine Bouchard getting a contract. Laurikainen and Ellis are much better prospects at this point in time.

 

[OilBuoy]

No news about it today, so I guess that playoff run wasn't enough to get Keven Bouchard an ELC from the Oilers?

The local writer who covers the Moncton Wildcats said in an article yesterday that Bouchard will be back with the team next year as one of their three overagers so I'm guessing he's already been told that he won't be getting a contract from the Oilers.

 

[Senor Catface]

Keven Bouchard is gone.

 

[Aceboogie]

Keven Bouchard is gone.

Tried his damn best to crack .900 but just never could. Bad pick

Passed up on Francis Perron (108 points) and QMJHL MVP and Watson (89 Points)

 

[Senor Catface]

http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showthread.php?t=1698557

Even when he was drafed people were like .

 

[Aceboogie]

http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showthread.php?t=1698557

Even when he was drafed people were like .

2013- good draft for us. No NHLers yet but solid pieces
2014- uhhh wtf happened her
2015- really good draft thus far

 

[The Nuge]

http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showthread.php?t=1698557

Even when he was drafed people were like .

Just saying, but my comment was

I was OK with the whole wait and see thing with Bouchard, but if this is a Chabot pick, we can pretty much assume he's a bust

2013- good draft for us. No NHLers yet but solid pieces
2014- uhhh wtf happened her
2015- really good draft thus far

Ya, 2014 was just a weird year. MacT actually had a really good looking haul his first draft, and then he just drafted busts like crazy the next year. At least he made the right pick with our 1st...

 

[McMozesmadness]

Whining about the '14 draft is ridiculous.

We had one pick in the first 3 rounds, which was Draisaitl??? Anyone dissapointed with that pick?

91- Lagesson - Looks like he has a good chance. That's all you can expect after round two.

111- Nagelvoort - Miss. Goalies are an inexact science. I'd prefer the NCAA UFA route, ie Ellis.

130- Coughlin - Even. We got this pick back. No harm no foul.

153- Vesel - Don't count him out. Skilled and hard working, but will take time. Look at Rust and Shearey for the Pens. Similar guys, similar route.

183- Bouchard - Miss. It's the 7th round. It's a goalie. He had a minuscule chance.

This draft was average IMO. Drai and Lagesson look like good picks Bouchard and Nagelvoort are misses and Vesel and Coughlin are average picks.

 

[Senor Catface]

Just saying, but my comment was




Ya, 2014 was just a weird year. MacT actually had a really good looking haul his first draft, and then he just drafted busts like crazy the next year. At least he made the right pick with our 1st...

Haha yeah, your comment stuck out. That's what we get for listening to Chabot!

 

[JordanGalhanth]

Haha yeah, your comment stuck out. That's what we get for listening to Chabot!

Ahhh, good old Chabot...the Dallas Eakins of goaltending coaches.

Seriously, I remember being at training camp in 2010 and watching him teaching one of our goalies (might have been Dubnyk) from the front row seats behind the net. Chabot was training the goalie to close off the short side of the net by getting down on his knees, dropping his stick, and grabbing the post with both hands to completely seal it off.

Maybe I'm crazy, but that technique didn't seem right to my untrained eye.