You start out with a blatant untruth "+/- does not randomly fluctuate".
Yes, it does. For every player ever. Unless you are prepared to tell me how Lidstrom was +40 in 03 while being a +9 in 01 and a +13 in 02. Please explain to me how Lidstrom's individual overall play made such a striking difference.
+/- fluctuates, and obviously luck is a factor, as it is in almost everything, but it does not randomly fluctuate as you said. GF and GA are not random numbers.
some players are better at keeping play in the offensive zone. some players are better at breaking up attacks. some players are not good at keeping play in the offensive zone. some players control the puck and tempo very well. some players create more GF or fewer GA. teammates and style of play are also obviously very important, and +/- is not really an individual stat.
imo, lidstrom was better in '03 than in '01 or '02, and '03 was probably his best season. was more defensive minded and took fewer chances offensively. DRW were also the highest scoring team in '03, unlike '01 or '02, and lidstrom got more +'s. in '01, lidstrom relied more on PP for points, and murphy was not as good at the end of his career. in '02, DRW were too loose, often winning on talent rather than hard work, and coasted often.
osgood was also not very good in '01. imo, legace was better in '01, and i don't think osgood was dumped entirely b/c hasek was available.
DRW goal differential at ES
'01: +21
'02: +39
'03: +45
lidstrom's +/- since '06 has been higher b/c DRW have combined puck pressure with puck possession. puck support also better. datsyuk and zetterberg are also very important.
rafalski's +/- is better than lidstrom's this season b/c he faces weaker opposition, b/c he moves the puck more quickly out of his zone (partly b/c he is faster) and b/c he is more offensive minded and more involved in offense at ES.
early this season i speculated that playing with stuart, a good defensive player, but who spends too much time in his own end, could be reducing lidstrom's effectiveness. but that was probably not right, since lidstrom was not any better with kronwall or ericsson.
You have consistently denigrated Lidstrom's defensive play this season; not by comparing him to his current peers, but by comparing him to his previous self. As if Lidstrom needs to beat his 35 year-old self in order to justify winning the Norris this year.
you can say it is denigration, but i would say it is an accurate description. i have posted on lidstrom's play throughout the season, about individual games and about the season generally. as far as i know, you have only posted the most general comments that lidstrom has been great defensively, but nothing specific. i don't think i have seen you comment in a GDT at all, or comment about any individual game. i think my assessment is far more accurate and far more consistent with lidstrom's numbers than yours.
i think most of my comments have not compared lidstrom to anyone. it is clear to me that opponents regularly forecheck against lidstrom effectively and create pressure from below the goal line; and that F's too often skate by lidstrom along the boards or across the circles. i have pointed out several times when lidstrom let his man get behind him in the neutral zone, or when he was watching the puck instead of his man, or when he did not take out his man by the net, etc.
i have not seen very many games of other teams this season, which makes comparison to peers more difficult, but lidstrom has not seemed as effective defensively as other top d-men.
No one is denying Lidstrom is not currently one of the best all-time defensively this year, only stating he is still amongst the best in the league currently. You have yet to offer up anyone close to his offensive production who surpasses him defensively.
i don't like that kind of approach to awards. for most d-men, points are highly related to F's, and are not really created by d-men. it is less true of more offensive minded d-men like green.
i think suter and weber have both been better than lidstrom this season. but nashville is a much lower scoring team with far less talent at F. i think chara has been better than lidstrom. chara and weber have more points at ES than lidstrom, but less points on PP.
lidstrom was better last season (49p) than this season (on pace for 65p).
i thought duncan keith could have been a norris finalist in '09, even though he did not have a large number of points (partly b/c he was on 2nd PP). but his level of play was very good.
i thought pronger and lidstrom were better choices for norris finalists last season, even though they had less points. doughty had more PPTOI and a smaller defensive role than pronger or lidstrom.
letang was often mentioned as a norris finalist, but his stats changed much after crosby got injured. i have only seen a few games of pittsburgh, but letang seemed about the same, other than being under pressure more without crosby, and having less time and chances in the offensive zone.
imo, only aspect of lidstrom's play this season that is elite is PP. i don't think that should win a norris.
Lidstrom currently (defensively) is like Gretzky in a 130+ pt season... Not where he was in his prime, but still amongst the best in the league. Sure, it is a big drop off, but when your peak is so high, you have a long way to fall before the rest catch up. Couple that with heading the pack offensively, and I am still waiting to hear whom you think the Norris goes to.
130p is not amongst the best, since very few players have scored 130p, and only time gretzky scored 130p, he won the art ross.
i am not at all sure lidstrom is amongst the best defensively this season, and i would say it is more like a 80p season.
I will remind you, the players recently voted Lidstrom as the 2nd most "tough" defenseman to play against, behind only Chara.
i don't think that is very important, since there is a much larger amount of evidence available.
they voted niedermayer one of the best shutdown d-men last season, but i don't think niedermayer was ever one of the best shutdown d-men. those polls seem mostly based on reputation. niedermayer was not a better shutdown d-man in 2010 than keith, who seems to have got 0 votes, or suter (apparently also 0 votes). i would not have put weber above those 2, or above pronger, but players did.