So you don't even watch the games? Rafalski is a very good defenseman, maybe not better than Lidstrom but my point was to illustrate how his stats are better. Which leads to people thinking stats tell all. I think you need to relax a bit man.
2011 - Worst Norris Trophy Winner?
- Thread starter Dennis Bonvie
- Start date
So you don't even watch the games? Rafalski is a very good defenseman, maybe not better than Lidstrom but my point was to illustrate how his stats are better. Which leads to people thinking stats tell all. I think you need to relax a bit man.
Dennis Bonvie
Registered User
Here are the worst +/- ratings for Norris Trophy winners:
1980-81 -16 Randy Carlye
1997-98 - 3 Rob Blake
1982-83 0 Rod Langway
1981-82 + 1 Doug Wilson (had 39 goals)
2000-01 + 9 Nick Lidstrom
1975-76 +12 Dennis Potvin (98 points, 31 goals)
2001-02 +13 Nick Lidstrom
1992-93 +14 Chris Chelios
1983-84 +14 Rod Langway
1994-95 +18 Paul Coffey (half season)
In 44 years (as far back as I could get +/-) only 10 seasons have seen a Norris winner under +20. Only two seasons with minuses. And 1980-81 thru 1983-84 accounts for 4 of the ten years.
Read into it whatever. It still seems to me this is a historically bad year for the Norris Trophy.
Blizzard
Registered User
- Feb 22, 2010
- 347
- 1
Letang hasn't even been the best defensemen on his own team since the beginning of the new year.
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The top plus/minus has leveled off quite a bit from the high point of the Bruin and Montreal 100plus guys in the early 70's so it's not really a fair comp IMO.
Dennis Bonvie
Registered User
How so?
Potvin's +12 is one of the worst and that was before Robinson's +120.
Pronger had a +52 the year before Lidstrom's +9.
3 of the last 7 years Lidstrom has won with a +40.
3 of the 4 worst were from the early 80's.
I'm talking on an overall level not just the individual guy that wins the Norris. I just don't think that we should put too much emphasis on the plus/minus stat as it doesn't always tells us very much about the player in question.
Darrelle Lundqvist
Swagelin
To explain Lidström's poor +/-, I think it's very important to look at the context of teammates and opposition:
Season|+/-|QUALCOMP|QUALTEAM
07/08|40|0.156|0.461
08/09|31|0.086|0.381
09/10|22|0.061|0.380
10/11| -1 |0.129| 0.013
Seems like the sharp decrease in quality of teammates is an important determinant for his bad +/-. That also means, of course, that his nice +/- numbers previous years were largely influenced by him playing with top quality teammates.
07/08|40|0.156|0.461
08/09|31|0.086|0.381
09/10|22|0.061|0.380
10/11| -1 |0.129| 0.013
Seems like the sharp decrease in quality of teammates is an important determinant for his bad +/-. That also means, of course, that his nice +/- numbers previous years were largely influenced by him playing with top quality teammates.
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I believe Lidstrom leads all Detroit blueliners in defensive zone faceoffs. There's a site that tracks that sort of ****. I'm sure a Red Wings fan will post it.
jkrx
Registered User
- Feb 4, 2010
- 4,337
- 21
Don't post evidence that doesn't support Mr. Bonvies claims, he will only disregard it.
TheDevilMadeMe
Registered User
Dennis Bonvie
Registered User
To tell you the truth, I don't even know what the chart was suppose to prove.
But in a discussion of Nik Lidstrom I find it odd that the guy with the avatar of the Red Wings carrying the Cup is claiming someone with no horse in the race disregards "evidence".
TheDevilMadeMe
Registered User
Most wings fans agree lidstrom is still great but slowing down right? The fact that he's still a favorite definitely shows thy this is a weak year.
Weaker than some of the year in the early 80s? I'm not sure of that.
Weaker than some of the year in the early 80s? I'm not sure of that.
JackSlater
Registered User
- Apr 27, 2010
- 18,099
- 12,748
I would put the last few years as the weakest for defencemen since the 60s... although better than that period.
TheDevilMadeMe
Registered User
I really don't think last year was weak at all. Lidstrom was probably better than he is this year and finished 4th. Pronger was also probably better than lidstrom This year and was 5th I think. Hell, if Boyle had the season he had last year this year, he'd be in the discussion to win the thing.
I don't have any stats to back this up but I was thinking today with AO going down for 7-10 days with an injury that has been lingering all year and the Dman parade that it has been in Vancouver this year if injuries are affecting the quality of the race as well as other factors like overall parity in the league?
Just some food for thought, might apply more to forwards than Dmen this year with Malkin, Crosby, AO and Parise off the top of my head.
Just some food for thought, might apply more to forwards than Dmen this year with Malkin, Crosby, AO and Parise off the top of my head.
TheDevilMadeMe
Registered User
Good point on injuries. Pronger is the one relevant defenseman I can think of who was taken down by injury.
RabbinsDuck
Registered User
Datsyuk went down midway through on pace for his best year ever; Hossa went down after a hot start
Doughty, Suter, Green, Rafalski, Edler, Phaneuf, Campbell all missed time as well.
I got ripped apart for saying there is an argument that Rafalski is having a better year than Lidstrom. Rafalski would be right up there in the finalists had he not missed quite a few games.
I'd love to hear that argument.
I would agree that Rafalski has been better than Lidstrom offensively this year. His passes are a big driver of the Red Wings' offence. Unfortunately, he has been really weak defensively. Lidstrom, Kronwall and Stuart are all clearly better defensively. Many Wings fans would also put Salei and lately even Kindl on that list.
I doubt anyone on the Wings board would hold Rafalski's overall season over Lidstrom's.
Correct me if I'm wrong, but I think it is the relative +/- of teammates weighted with the amount of time they spend together with the player in question, Lidström in this case. That would mean that Lidström's poor QUALTEAM could actually be caused by himself since he obviously influences the +/- of his teammates. I think they should adjust the numbers for that but it doesn't seem to be the case.
overpass
Registered User
- Jun 7, 2007
- 5,271
- 2,808
You're right, it's just a single iteration for QUALTEAM and QUALCOMP. So players affect their teammates' plus-minus which affects their QUALTEAM.
The site proprietor has said he would prefer to run multiple iterations but does not have the computing power available.
Dennis Bonvie
Registered User
Agreed, injuries are indeed a factor.
If Drew Dougherty didn't start the year off injured perhaps he would be a favorite at this point.
Not saying that he is better. I was talking in terms of the Norris trophy because people only look at stats including +/-. Rafalski is not weak defensively, he is not amazing but I would say better than Kronwall. Stuart is very solid defensively. Kronwall can throw big hits, but he is out of position a lot.
