18/19 MGMT thread VIIII

[Josepho]

Gaudette.

He's from New England but he played in Iowa during his draft season.

 

[Drop the Sopel]

I think you are just really underestimating how hard it is to play that many games. Realistically you would probably set the individual over/under at about 650 for those two players. That's 1,300 combined, which means that even if you get 500 games from Demko (Cory Schneider has 379) it STILL leaves you 200 games short, and you're banking on getting that from Forsling (21 games this season) and Tryamkin (0.)

Tryamkin and Forsling have already combined for 180 games...

Not to mention the game is far less physical and punishing now than ever before, while it keeps trending in that direction. Training, nutrition and supplementation is also lengthening athletes careers and look for this continue going forward.

2000 games is a reasonable projection IMO. We will be almost 1/3 of the way there at the end of this season, when these guys are still 22/23 years of age.

And the 2014 draft isn't even a top 3 Canuck draft for me under Benning...

 

[Melvin]

He's from New England but he played in Iowa during his draft season.

Oh, right.

Then I think the only other one is McNally.

 

[Melvin]

Tryamkin and Forsling have already combined for 180 games...

Not to mention the game is far less physical and punishing now than ever before, while it keeps trending in that direction. Training, nutrition and supplementation is also lengthening athletes careers and look for this continue going forward.

2000 games is a reasonable projection IMO. We will be almost 1/3 of the way there at the end of this season, when these guys are still 22/23 years of age.

And the 2014 draft isn't even a top 3 Canuck draft for me under Benning...

So you're expecting to get 2,000+ NHL games from 4 of the 5 drafts?

What is your source for the claim that careers are "lengthening?"

 

[Peen]

Brackett said that he didn't see Boeser play much, he was mostly focused on the New England area and wasn't named head of scouting until after that draft.

Vancouver's US scouting, in general, has been "good" going back to Brian Burke.

Ah, I gotcha.

Thanks

 

[Peen]

Benning generally goes into depth about the top 5 players every year on the radio....This does not indicate that he is going to select them..Benning was gushing about Matt Tkachuk in 2016,calling him one of the best players behind the oppositions net..

Look man, you can believe what you want. I'm not going to go through hundreds of hours from each year's months leading up to the draft for you for something that is common knowledge. And why would I even lie about something like this anyways? theres literally no reason to push that agenda

 

[Drop the Sopel]

So you're expecting to get 2,000+ NHL games from 4 of the 5 drafts?

What is your source for the claim that careers are "lengthening?"

No. But I am expecting Boeser to take a run at 500 career goals and Pettersson to take a run at 1000 NHL points. Too early to say if the 2018 draft is better than 2014 but I am very high on Hughes. Woo and Madden are very intriguing as well.

The improvements in nutrition, supplementation and training knowledge available will help athletes perform at a high level later into life. Improvements in medical procedures should help in this regard as well. Haven't looked for a source.

 

[Melvin]

So I looked at retired forwards who had played between 200 and 250 NHL games through their age 22 season but had fewer than 125 points. This is to try to isolate Virtanen and McCann's historical peers.

Unfortunately this only gave me 62 players, but just eye-balling it it seems to be a reasonable group. At the top end are guys like Shane Doan, Todd Bertuzzi, Adam Graves, Daymond Langkow, Brad May who all played 1,000+ NHL games. At the low end is Grigorenko who went to Russia after his age-22, which Virtanen and McCann aren't likely to do. Excluding him, the average is 719 NHL games. The median player is Chad Kilger, 714 NHL games.

So that's interesting. Higher than I would have guessed. Of the 61 players not counting Grigorenko, 17 of them made it to the 900 game mark. So I think 1,500 combined games for the two of them is a reasonable middle-ground. I would still take the under on 2,000 total but maybe it's not as outlandish as I originally thought.

 

[4Twenty]

No. But I am expecting Boeser to take a run at 500 career goals and Pettersson to take a run at 1000 NHL points. Too early to say if the 2018 draft is better than 2014 but I am very high on Hughes. Woo and Madden are very intriguing as well.

The improvements in nutrition, supplementation and training knowledge available will help athletes perform at a high level later into life. Improvements in medical procedures should help in this regard as well. Haven't looked for a source.

You're certainly lofty in your projections and expectations.

45 NHL players have ever hit 500 goals. I like Brock as much as the next guy, but I probably would've used "one of the better goal scorers during his career" as a benchmark, because it takes talent and longevity to reach those massive milestones. Kids already missed 1/4 of the games available to him 1.5 years into his career.

 

[Melvin]

No. But I am expecting Boeser to take a run at 500 career goals and Pettersson to take a run at 1000 NHL points. Too early to say if the 2018 draft is better than 2014 but I am very high on Hughes. Woo and Madden are very intriguing as well.

The improvements in nutrition, supplementation and training knowledge available will help athletes perform at a high level later into life. Improvements in medical procedures should help in this regard as well. Haven't looked for a source.

In theory, sure. But until I see some actual data I don't buy it. Better nutrition+training also makes the game harder and harder to play, which ages people out faster if they can't keep up and lose their jobs to younger players.

 

[Pastor Of Muppetz]

I really hate that saying we picking tkachuk and Nylander or Ehlers would have prevented the Pettersson pick. That's such flawed logic imo and it keeps getting repeated as an excuse.

Nylander and Tkachuk and the Sedins..?..Not flawed logic at all..We would not have been picking 5th in 2017..that’s for sure

 

[Pastor Of Muppetz]

Look man, you can believe what you want. I'm not going to go through hundreds of hours from each year's months leading up to the draft for you for something that is common knowledge. And why would I even lie about something like this anyways? theres literally no reason to push that agenda

It’s not common knowledge no matter how many times you keep saying it is..JB also personally scouted Heiskanen as well

 

[Bojack Horvatman]

I really hate that saying we picking tkachuk and Nylander or Ehlers would have prevented the Pettersson pick. That's such flawed logic imo and it keeps getting repeated as an excuse.

It's like saying it's a good thing that Gillis was a bad drafter or, we wouldn't have Pettersson. The worst part is that the same people will complain about people "using hindsight" when judging Benning acquisitions, when this is precisely that.

 

[Melvin]

No. But I am expecting Boeser to take a run at 500 career goals and Pettersson to take a run at 1000 NHL points. Too early to say if the 2018 draft is better than 2014 but I am very high on Hughes. Woo and Madden are very intriguing as well.

The improvements in nutrition, supplementation and training knowledge available will help athletes perform at a high level later into life. Improvements in medical procedures should help in this regard as well. Haven't looked for a source.

Come on, man. You're expecting 500ish goals? That's a hell of an expectation.

 

[Drop the Sopel]

You're certainly lofty in your projections and expectations.

'Take a run at those totals' implies those are their ceilings. Health will always be the make or break factor in career accomplishments for guys this talented. Assuming they aren't decimated with injuries I would hope they strive for those 'lofty' goals. But yeah, they are best case scenarios. They are also special cases in that Pettersson stepped in at 19 and is on pace for close to a 50-50 rookie season, while Brock stepped in and got to 50 goals in only 110 games. What if they haven't peaked at 20 and 21 respectively? They also did it with one of, if not the worst offensive bluelines in the NHL.

Where would you rank the 2014 draft of Benning's 5 to date?

For me it's-
2017
2015
2018
2014
2016

Obviously it could look very different in the future.

 

[xtra]

It’s not common knowledge no matter how many times you keep saying it is..JB also personally scouted Heiskanen as well

Do you think if heiskannen or makar we’re there at 5 they take pettersson after saying for years they needed an offensive dman?

I don’t believe that Peterson’s was their #1 choice, here’s an article that follows that thought:

Redirect Notice

 

[I in the Eye]

Nylander and Tkachuk and the Sedins..?..Not flawed logic at all..We would not have been picking 5th in 2017..that’s for sure

Nobody knows how the draft lottery would have turned out if run again.

 

[MS]

No. But I am expecting Boeser to take a run at 500 career goals and Pettersson to take a run at 1000 NHL points. Too early to say if the 2018 draft is better than 2014 but I am very high on Hughes. Woo and Madden are very intriguing as well.

The improvements in nutrition, supplementation and training knowledge available will help athletes perform at a high level later into life. Improvements in medical procedures should help in this regard as well. Haven't looked for a source.

Careers are getting shorter right now after lengthening in the 1990s.

In 2005-06 there were 24 players aged 37 or older in the NHL. This year there are 11.

It’s a young guy’s sport right now. The dumbest thing most GMs keep doing is offering money and term to non-superstar players past age 30.

 

[RandV]

Brackett said that he didn't see Boeser play much, he was mostly focused on the New England area and wasn't named head of scouting until after that draft.

Vancouver's US scouting, in general, has been "good" going back to Brian Burke.

Yes starting with Burke we've always been pretty good at drafting from the US and Europe, with the biggest area of failure being the WHL and QMJHL.

While there's an overwhelming case for Virtanen being a Benning pick and Pettersson a Brackett one, Boeser is a bit more obscure but I think this is one that you can easily give to Benning/Weisbrod. He was a good US college kid who didn't skate or rattle the boards like Virtanen but he could rip the puck with the best of them and had a feel good story on par with Mackenzie Stewart. Alongside Virtanen and apparently Juolevi (I'll never understand this one), Boeser is a perfect archetype Benning pick.

 

[Pastor Of Muppetz]

Do you think if heiskannen or makar we’re there at 5 they take pettersson after saying for years they needed an offensive dman?

I don’t believe that Peterson’s was their #1 choice, here’s an article that follows that thought:

Redirect Notice

I don’t disagree that they may have been looking for a 1D before a 1C..my point is that it wasn’t necessarily Makar..

 

[xtra]

Maybe an idea should be to do a sampling of this 2000 game theory if I could get the raw data it’s something I wouldn’t mind doing but I’d be slow at it.

An article (albeit from 2013) says the average nhl career is 5.5 years which is 450 games if they play every game
NFL, MLB, NHL, MLS & NBA: Which Leagues and Players Make the Most Money?

A team would have to draft 5 average nhl players to meet that mark. Of course that doesn’t account for quality of games as for example jakes 18/19 year old season was probably below replacement level.

This could be an interesting idea to look into

 

[4Twenty]

Nylander and Tkachuk and the Sedins..?..Not flawed logic at all..We would not have been picking 5th in 2017..that’s for sure

The top 3 picks in 2017 all won the lottery and moved up from where they finished in the standings. They may not have been picking 5th, but they still could've had a shot at Pettersson.

That said if it was just Tkachuk, I don't think he really moves the needle all that much on his own in 2017....my reasoning for this, is the next season a 40 goal pace rookie got added to the Canucks and they were 4 points better.

We cannot be certain one way or the other if the addition of a one of those prospects takes away the teams shot at Pettersson....but I am amused that this is the new positive slant to the team making a bad selection at 5th overall.

 

[Pastor Of Muppetz]

Nobody knows how the draft lottery would have turned out if run again.

What we do know is that Nylander,Tkachuk,Sedins and Horvat is a pretty serious top 6

 

[Askel]

Benning generally goes into depth about the top 5 players every year on the radio....This does not indicate that he is going to select them..Benning was gushing about Matt Tkachuk in 2016,calling him one of the best players behind the oppositions net..

And he still choose Joulevi over him.

 

[4Twenty]

'Take a run at those totals' implies those are their ceilings. Health will always be the make or break factor in career accomplishments for guys this talented. Assuming they aren't decimated with injuries I would hope they strive for those 'lofty' goals. But yeah, they are best case scenarios. They are also special cases in that Pettersson stepped in at 19 and is on pace for close to a 50-50 rookie season, while Brock stepped in and got to 50 goals in only 110 games. What if they haven't peaked at 20 and 21 respectively? They also did it with one of, if not the worst offensive bluelines in the NHL.

Where would you rank the 2014 draft of Benning's 5 to date?

For me it's-
2017
2015
2018
2014
2016

Obviously it could look very different in the future.

18's too soon to judge and 14 isn't really his so that looks about right. 16 is really bad, especially knowing what type of hockey we had to witness for the reward after it all being a vanilla dman who probably wouldn't go in the first round if the draft was re-done.