18/19 MGMT thread VIIII

[Melvin]

I like when people say Benning saw something in Judd

If by saw something you mean Judd was bringing good picks/recommendations and was therefore promoted then yeah he “saw something” in the same way a boss promotes his most efficient worker

Managing people is tough and it might be something Benning is actually good at.

 

[Drop the Sopel]

Good to see you again, DTS.



Plenty have teams have drafted 5 players in a draft, using a loose definition of "NHL player": NYI in 2008, OTT in 2011, CBJ in 2002, Florida in 2011, LAK in 2009, Chicago in 2003, WSH in 2004 .... This is just some recent examples. I don't know why "first 5 picks" matters and Benning had two first-rounders in that draft anyway which obviously increases the odds.

Given that it was his first draft, and that Benning swiftly traded two of those players (and hasn't traded a single drafted player since,) tells you that he wasn't too enamored with those selections anyway.

I've posted the numbers in terms of nhl player vs expected players given where the Canucks have picked, and it's pretty much exactly average overall.

Cheers.

Fair enough. But that's only like 7 examples in close to 500 odd drafts if you go back to the early 2000's... Unless you just didn't bother listing a bunch of other examples, which is possible. I just looked back and saw the Canucks didn't do it in the last 20 years.

Like I said, it's possible he didn't have a major hand in 2014. He was new on the scene. Tough to say.

If you could re-do the Canucks 2015-18 drafts and hand pick any scouting staff in the NHL to do it, would you? I wouldn't.

IMO that's a tremendous feather in the cap of the amateur group.

 

[Motte and Bailey]

Good to see you again, DTS.



Plenty have teams have drafted 5 players in a draft, using a loose definition of "NHL player": NYI in 2008, OTT in 2011, CBJ in 2002, Florida in 2011, LAK in 2009, Chicago in 2003, WSH in 2004 .... This is just some recent examples. I don't know why "first 5 picks" matters and Benning had two first-rounders in that draft anyway which obviously increases the odds.

Given that it was his first draft, and that Benning swiftly traded two of those players (and hasn't traded a single drafted player since,) tells you that he wasn't too enamored with those selections anyway.

I've posted the numbers in terms of nhl player vs expected players given where the Canucks have picked, and it's pretty much exactly average overall.

Plenty of teams according to you is 7 teams in the last 16 years which is 480 team drafts which is about 1.5%?

Plenty = 1.5% percentile ???

Nonsense!

 

[Melvin]

Cheers.

Fair enough. But that's only like 7 examples in close to 500 odd drafts if you go back to the early 2000's... Unless you just didn't bother listing a bunch of other examples, which is possible. I just looked back and saw the Canucks didn't do it in the last 20 years.

Those were just some recent examples. Here's the full list since 2000, using "30 games" as a baseline:

year team players
2008 NYI 8
2011 OTT 8
2002 CBJ 7
2003 EDM 7
2010 FLA 7
2011 FLA 6
2009 LAK 6
2004 MIN 6
2003 CHI 6
2001 OTT 6
2009 NSH 6
2003 PHI 6
2001 TOR 6
2006 TOR 6
2004 WSH 6
2012 WSH 5
2008 TBL 5
2004 PHX 5
2003 PIT 5
2007 STL 5
2009 NYI 5
2012 NSH 5
2001 NYR 5
2005 NYR 5
2008 OTT 5
2009 OTT 5
2004 CHI 5
2011 CHI 5
2002 CHI 5
2011 ANA 5
2003 BOS 5
2013 BUF 5
2007 LAK 5
2003 MTL 5
2004 MTL 5
2002 DET 5
2011 DET 5

It works out to about two teams per draft.

You're right that Vancouver isn't in this list. But Dave Nonis got 4 NHL players in his first draft (and had a much better draft overall, I'd say,) and it didn't prove to be any indication that he was some drafting savant. I think Benning trading Forsling and McCann shortly after the draft says a lot, just personally. You're also counting Demko who has played 2 NHL games.

Like I said, it's possible he didn't have a major hand in 2014. He was new on the scene. Tough to say.

If you could re-do the Canucks 2015-18 drafts and hand pick any scouting staff in the NHL to do it, would you? I wouldn't.

I don't know, maybe. I consider drafting to be almost 100% luck so I'd have to calculate the odds of getting a better result by just doing it again.

 

[Drop the Sopel]

I like when people say Benning saw something in Judd

If by saw something you mean Judd was bringing good picks/recommendations and was therefore promoted then yeah he “saw something” in the same way a boss promotes his most efficient worker

He didn't just see something in Judd. He took him from part time scout to the top of the staff. The youngest guy there leap-frogged long tenured, old school hockey guys that had been part of the scouting staff for forever. Was a ballsy choice, no question.

And most importantly, Benning made the major changes very quickly. He didn't take 4-5 years to figure it out.

 

[Motte and Bailey]

30gp lol

 

[4Twenty]

If you could re-do the Canucks 2015-18 drafts and hand pick any scouting staff in the NHL to do it, would you? I wouldn't.

IMO that's a tremendous feather in the cap of the amateur group.

I still don't know how you make that parallel?

Boeser and Pettersson? Is it assumed these players wouldn't be targeted by others, because other than that, what is there?

Is this one of those trick questions where if you pick Tkachuk you don't get Pettersson?

15 looks to have a star, and Gaudette looks like an NHLer, but probably never more than a 3rd liner.
16, you've admitted is a dud.
17, a superstar and the next highest picks are struggling in the minors.
18 too soon to judge.

Why wouldn't you trade it with teams/staffs that have a better history of ability to draft talent. Your whole claim seems built on two selections.

 

[Drop the Sopel]

Those were just some recent examples. Here's the full list since 2000, using "30 games" as a baseline:

But Dave Nonis got 4 NHL players in his first draft (and had a much better draft overall, I'd say,) and it didn't prove to be any indication that he was some drafting savant.

Has anyone besides Benning done it since he was hired?

You're right about Nonis. But Benning HAS been able to back it up with some amazing drafts since. 2 of the best finds in franchise history.

Maybe Benning is just the luckiest drafter we have ever had, who knows. But you don't mess with success. Keep the lucky rabbit's foot around, in a diminished role where has shown his value.

 

[F A N]

He didn't just see something in Judd. He took him from part time scout to the top of the staff. The youngest guy there leap-frogged long tenured, old school hockey guys that had been part of the scouting staff for forever. Was a ballsy choice, no question.

And most importantly, Benning made the major changes very quickly. He didn't take 4-5 years to figure it out.

Exactly. Been saying this for a long time.

 

[Phenomenon13]

I really hate that saying we picking tkachuk and Nylander or Ehlers would have prevented the Pettersson pick. That's such flawed logic imo and it keeps getting repeated as an excuse.

 

[Hit the post]

And most importantly, Benning made the major changes very quickly. He didn't take 4-5 years to figure it out.

Just took him 4 years to figure out Willie was a horrible NHL head coach.

 

[Drop the Sopel]

Boeser and Pettersson? Is it assumed these players wouldn't be targeted by others, because other than that, what is there?

Is this one of those trick questions where if you pick Tkachuk you don't get Pettersson?

Why wouldn't you trade it with teams/staffs that have a better history of ability to draft talent. Your whole claim seems built on two selections.

No assumptions at all. No trick question. You get the same picks in all 4 drafts and you get to pick whichever staff you want to make all those selections. Would you un-do Benning's body of work and take the chance you will outperform him?

For me it's a no-brainer. Others may feel differently. That's fine.

 

[Melvin]

Has anyone besides Benning done it since he was hired?

You're right about Nonis. But Benning HAS been able to back it up with some amazing drafts since. 2 of the best finds in franchise history.

Maybe Benning is just the luckiest drafter we have ever had, who knows. But you don't mess with success. Keep the lucky rabbit's foot around, in a diminished role where has shown his value.

The problem is that you are using special criteria to define "NHL player" which isn't easily applied to teams you don't follow as closely. This is called special pleading. How many other teams have a Nikita Tryamkin who you are counting because he is good enough to be in the NHL but doesn't want to play here, or a Thatcher Demko who you are projecting as an NHL player even though he hasn't proven that yet.

Both Ottawa and Arizona drafted 5 players in 2015 who have played in the NHL. Is Kyle Copabianco an NHL player? I dunno, but if you're counting Demko and Tryamkin then I guess so? And Forsling, for that matter.

EDIT: And Forsling for that matter. Only 2 of these players are actual proven NHL regulars at this time. Both were selected with first round picks and one was traded away shortly after the draft. The other was taken 6th overall and merely looks like an OK selection.

 

[Motte and Bailey]

I'd say, if anything, promote Benning to do the high level stuff that his sublime vision is best suited for. Let Benning control the scouting and amateur scouting, the culture, and the shape of the team. Let someone like Yzerman do the grunt work, negotiating contracts and working the phones and make deals for maximum value then present them to Benning for approval to say yay or nay. I wouldn't hate that. I don't think it's necessary though because when someone is really good at something and has mastered it like Benning has with scouting it shows they can learn how to do other things at a high level too. That Horvat contract is a beauty. FA contracts are market value, you'd like to see discounts but it is what it is. We'll see what Benning's made of contract wise this summer with Boeser's extension.

 

[Drop the Sopel]

Just took him 4 years to figure out Willie was a horrible NHL head coach.

Willie got 100 points out of a thin group his first season behind the bench. He was hired and fired by Trevor Linden and only coached for 3 seasons...

 

[4Twenty]

Has anyone besides Benning done it since he was hired?

You're right about Nonis. But Benning HAS been able to back it up with some amazing drafts since. 2 of the best finds in franchise history.

Maybe Benning is just the luckiest drafter we have ever had, who knows. But you don't mess with success. Keep the lucky rabbit's foot around, in a diminished role where has shown his value.

The Ducks 2014 draft...Ritchie, Pettersson, Montour and Kase.

 

[Hit the post]

Willie got 100 points out of a thin group his first season behind the bench. He was hired and fired by Trevor Linden and only coached for 3 seasons...

My mistake then, only 3 years not 4. If both Sedins were in the top ten in points in the NHL (like they were under Willie that first year) with Torts, we would’ve made the playoffs that year as well. Combine that with Lack having a career high year = 100 points.

He stinks as a NHL head coach. The GM has the authority to fire the head coach. Does he ask Trev for permission to use the washroom?

 

[Drop the Sopel]

The problem is that you are using special criteria to define "NHL player" which isn't easily applied to teams you don't follow as closely. This is called special pleading. How many other teams have a Nikita Tryamkin who you are counting because he is good enough to be in the NHL but doesn't want to play here, or a Thatcher Demko who you are projecting as an NHL player even though he hasn't proven that yet.

Both Ottawa and Arizona drafted 5 players in 2015 who have played in the NHL. Is Kyle Copabianco an NHL player? I dunno, but if you're counting Demko and Tryamkin then I guess so? And Forsling, for that matter.

EDIT: And Forsling for that matter. Only 2 of these players are actual NHL regulars at this time. Both were selected with first round picks and one was traded away shortly after the draft. The other was taken 6th overall and merely looks like an OK selection.

Tryamkin is an NHL player on ability IMO. He's not in the NHL for personal reasons. I expect him back in the near future as well.

Fair enough on Demko. Goalies are tough to project, but everything he's done up to this point makes him appear destined for a lengthy NHL career.

How comfortable would you be willing to bet this group doesn't have 5 guys play 50 or more NHL games? I'm guessing not very. For good reason.

 

[Drop the Sopel]

My mistake then, only 3 years not 4.
He stinks as a NHL head coach.

The GM has the authority to fire the head coach. Does he ask Trev for permission to use the washroom?

Willie sucked.

But it's been reported Trevor refused to fire him when ownership wanted him gone. Trevor was Jim's boss.

 

[4Twenty]

No assumptions at all. No trick question. You get the same picks in all 4 drafts and you get to pick whichever staff you want to make all those selections. Would you un-do Benning's body of work and take the chance you will outperform him?

For me it's a no-brainer. Others may feel differently. That's fine.

Yeah, I would take the chance personally. The body of work (which I don't even think the GM has much to do with) isn't all that impressive. It's built on 2 guys.

 

[Drop the Sopel]

The Ducks 2014 draft...Ritchie, Pettersson, Montour and Kase.

Good draft. But they didn't find 5 NHL players.

 

[Melvin]

Tryamkin is an NHL player on ability IMO. He's not in the NHL for personal reasons. I expect him back in the near future as well.

Fair enough on Demko. Goalies are tough to project, but everything he's done up to this point makes him appear destined for a lengthy NHL career.

How comfortable would you be willing to bet this group doesn't have 5 guys play 50 or more NHL games? I'm guessing not very. For good reason.

That's not my point though.

In order for this to mean anything you need to compare to other teams, which means you need to apply the same standard. You are counting 3 guys as NHL players who are not currently playing every day in the NHL. IF you apply that same standard to other teams, then how many do they have?

If you apply a more objective standard (taking say 50 games as a proven NHL player) then Vancouver doesn't have 5 either.

 

[I in the Eye]

Willie sucked.

But it's been reported Trevor refused to fire him when ownership wanted him gone. Trevor was Jim's boss.

Are you sure it wasn't Trevor who promoted Brackett?

 

[Melvin]

Good draft. But they didn't find 5 NHL players.

They only had 5 picks and 4 of them are everyday NHL players this season. I'd argue that's more impressive.

 

[4Twenty]

Good draft. But they didn't find 5 NHL players.

Fair enough.

I think 2015 and 2017 are actually better drafts because they actually got high end talent.

So far 14 (not even a Benning draft) has two 3rd liners, two bottom pair defensman and a backup goalie. Yes it's better than Vancouver's historical drafting, but it doesn't even push the needle of getting the team going in the right direction. It's actually really scary if you look at who Melvin's potato drafts that year....that would be a homerun of a draft.