18/19 MGMT thread VIIII

[Hit the post]

Fair enough on Demko. Goalies are tough to project, but everything he's done up to this point makes him appear destined for a lengthy NHL career..

Canucks track record on developing goalie prospects has been fairly good. I like the odds (particularly when you factor in pedigree).

Is 50 NHL games really much of a benchmark though? Frankie Corrado looked fairly good in the few post-season NHL games he was in as a rookie and has managed to play 76 games in the NHL.

 

[Peen]

I still haven't seen a source for this..?

Lol. It's the same combination of what happened before we picked Virtanen and Juolevi. Media was suggesting we liked him on the radio, canucks scouts had been spotted at Makar's games quite often, and management openly stating their fandom of the player. Plus, they also really suggested they wanted a defenseman. My pure guess is that they knew Heiskanen would go higher, but that maybe Makar would drop to five.

But what isn't a guess is that he liked him.

Same way there were rumors about Hughes before this draft.

Really, the two firsts that there hasn't been much given to the public on were what would happen if Heiskanen/Makar weren't there and the 2015 draft (but we picked like 23 or something)



Here's a snapshot of what I found in one search. I'm sure you could find a million more. Province, Brough, Benning himself among the sources.

 

[Josepho]

Weren't the rumours mostly that our interviews with Hughes didn't go well?

I knew as the pick was happening that it would be Hughes because of what Burke said but going into the day I was pretty sure it was going to be Dobson or Tkachuk.

 

[xtra]

Overall though the arguements that he’s a savant at drafting (but ignore the oj/Jake selections with clearly better players available) doesn’t absolve him from being terrible at everything else.

 

[Peen]

Also, I'd back off the 2014 draft a bit.

It was in itself a good draft regardless of the Virtanen reach. But, we essentially gave away Forsling and McCann, and then barely played Tryamkin who was clearly our second or third best RHD. He did not deserve the minuscule minutes and occasional benching.

So, it was a good draft that we wasted away assets from after the fact. Plus, we traded a third and second for Linden Vey and Dorsett that draft.

Could have been a lot better, but poor asset management negates that whole draft for me.

 

[4Twenty]

Look at Gillis' 2011 draft....4 guys got NHL games. YAY!!!!

Was 2001 a good draft for the Canucks because they got games out of 4 draftees or was it good because they picked two 800 game NHLers. I'd argue because of the two quality players (Umberger and Bieksa) and not because Fedor Fedorov played 18 games and Jason King played 59.

 

[Peen]

Weren't the rumours mostly that our interviews with Hughes didn't go well?

I knew as the pick was happening that it would be Hughes because of what Burke said but going into the day I was pretty sure it was going to be Dobson or Tkachuk.

I don't remember that Hughes rumor. But I'll take your word for it. I remember the repeated need for an offensive defenseman stuff, however.

 

[Drop the Sopel]

Are you sure it wasn't Trevor who promoted Brackett?

Benning was brought in to improve the scouting and all reports had him diving head long into that endeavour from day 1. He was even critcized for spending too much of his time focusing on the amateur side of things.

Trevor had no background in scouting whatsoever, whether on a personal level or with building a staff.

 

[Melvin]

Also, I'd back off the 2014 draft a bit.

It was in itself a good draft regardless of the Virtanen reach. But, we essentially gave away Forsling and McCann, and then barely played Tryamkin who was clearly our second or third best RHD. He did not deserve the minuscule minutes and occasional benching.

So, it was a good draft that we wasted away assets from after the fact. Plus, we traded a third and second for Linden Vey and Dorsett that draft.

Could have been a lot better, but poor asset management negates that whole draft for me.

Also, I know that Judd Brackett is some sort of a folk hero around here but he was promoted to head of amateur scouting after the 2015 draft to the results of "his" drafting so far have not been overly impressive. Some good prospects who have mostly faceplanted as professionals so far and Pettersson.

 

[4Twenty]

Also, I know that Judd Brackett is some sort of a folk hero around here but he was promoted to head of amateur scouting after the 2015 draft to the results of "his" drafting so far have not been overly impressive. Some good prospects who have mostly faceplanted as professionals so far and Pettersson.

I do recall Linden specifically saying they went all in on analytics for the 2017 draft, so while the prospects aren't stepping up, the process seems to be better, and maybe that all stemmed from botching the Juolevi pick.

Brackett is getting treated like Gradin did for decades before, really only having pumped the Twins tires and pushing for Edler in 2004. He's basically got Boeser.

I do like the process they seem to be drafting with now, but in terms of actual results the jury is still out.

 

[Drop the Sopel]

Look at Gillis' 2011 draft....4 guys got NHL games. YAY!!!!

Was 2001 a good draft for the Canucks because they got games out of 4 draftees or was it good because they picked two 800 game NHLers. I'd argue because of the two quality players (Umberger and Bieksa) and not because Fedor Fedorov played 18 games and Jason King played 59.

Finding players that play in the NHL is a good thing. The over/under on that 2014 draft looks like it will be around 2000 man games. We can try to find a way to criticize that, but it wouldn't be wise.

 

[F A N]

Weren't the rumours mostly that our interviews with Hughes didn't go well?

I knew as the pick was happening that it would be Hughes because of what Burke said but going into the day I was pretty sure it was going to be Dobson or Tkachuk.

Those rumors were probably fake news. But ya given what Burke said on air it seemed like they had ranked Hughes pretty high and didn't expect there to be a better player available if Hughes is still there at 7.

 

[kanuck87]

They only had 5 picks and 4 of them are everyday NHL players this season. I'd argue that's more impressive.

Lol, Anaheim got 4 NHLers from that draft. Two of which, Kase and Montour, might be better than anyone that we drafted that season.

Their draft class definitely looks more impressive than ours at the moment. It's not even close.

 

[Melvin]

Finding players that play in the NHL is a good thing. The over/under on that 2014 draft looks like it will be around 2000 man games. We can try to find a way to criticize that, but it wouldn't be wise.

.....I'll take the under.

 

[4Twenty]

Finding players that play in the NHL is a good thing. The over/under on that 2014 draft looks like it will be around 2000 man games. We can try to find a way to criticize that, but it wouldn't be wise.

Of those canucks picks, you think they'll play 2000 games?

Why wouldn't it be wise, when Melvin's potato drafted Nylander, Pastrnak and Brayden Point. If we're analyzing the draft we look at who they took, and who they had the chance to take.

Quality almost always usurps quantity.

 

[Drop the Sopel]

Of those canucks picks, you think they'll play 2000 games?

Yeah, based on where that draft is tracking, 2000 games is where I would set the over/under. 50% chance it tops 2000 man games.

A bunch of teams have had a better draft than the Canucks 2014 draft since then. That doesn't mean it's not a solid body of work.

 

[Melvin]

Yeah, based on where that draft is tracking, 2000 games is where I would set the over/under. 50% chance it tops 2000 man games.

A bunch of teams have had a better draft than the Canucks 2014 draft since then. That doesn't mean it's not a solid body of work.

2000 may be your projection but you have to admit it is optimistic and in no way would any non-Canucks fan set the over/under anywhere near that.

I will put $500 on the under.

If 2,000 is the mean projection than what is the optimistic one? 4,000? 5,000?

 

[Peen]

Also, I know that Judd Brackett is some sort of a folk hero around here but he was promoted to head of amateur scouting after the 2015 draft to the results of "his" drafting so far have not been overly impressive. Some good prospects who have mostly faceplanted as professionals so far and Pettersson.

I'm fairly certain Brackett has most say in the US picks.

Demko, Boeser, Gaudette, Lockwood, Rathbone, Hughes, Madden

Currently, that group seems to be tracking well.

I think that's why he's on a pedestal right now.

 

[Drop the Sopel]

2000 may be your projection but you have to admit it is optimistic and in no way would any non-Canucks fan set the over/under anywhere near that.

I will put $500 on the under.

If 2,000 is the mean projection than what is the optimistic one? 4,000? 5,000?

You haven't convinced me why 2000 is an inflated projection. Would love to hear your argument.

The drafted players are 22-23 years of age and we are coming up on 600 man games played already.

If Virtanen and McCann only play until the age of 30 and only average 70 games a season we're up to around 1750 NHL games.

Then you have Thatcher Demko to account for. Even if he's just a career NHL backup you're looking at 250 odd games. Ndver mind him developing into a starter.

So you're betting Tryamkin never comes back to the NHL and Gustav Forsling never has a career from here on out to have a safe probability to stay under 2000 man games.

Not to mention where the numbers go if McCann and Virtanen play their 31, 22, 33 year old seasons etc...

 

[Melvin]

I'm fairly certain Brackett has most say in the US picks.

Demko, Boeser, Gaudette, Lockwood, Rathbone, Hughes, Madden

Currently, that group seems to be tracking well.

I think that's why he's on a pedestal right now.

Brackett said that he didn't see Boeser play much, he was mostly focused on the New England area and wasn't named head of scouting until after that draft.

Vancouver's US scouting, in general, has been "good" going back to Brian Burke.

 

[Josepho]

aren't rathbone (who weisbrod, not brackett, was heavily pushing for) and demko the only new england area picks that we've made in the past 20 years.

in the potentially-scripted 2018 mic'd up video brackett seemed pretty fixated on madden (not a new england area pick) though.

 

[Pastor Of Muppetz]

Lol. It's the same combination of what happened before we picked Virtanen and Juolevi. Media was suggesting we liked him on the radio, canucks scouts had been spotted at Makar's games quite often, and management openly stating their fandom of the player. Plus, they also really suggested they wanted a defenseman. My pure guess is that they knew Heiskanen would go higher, but that maybe Makar would drop to five.

But what isn't a guess is that he liked him.

Same way there were rumors about Hughes before this draft.

Really, the two firsts that there hasn't been much given to the public on were what would happen if Heiskanen/Makar weren't there and the 2015 draft (but we picked like 23 or something)



Here's a snapshot of what I found in one search. I'm sure you could find a million more. Province, Brough, Benning himself among the sources.

Benning generally goes into depth about the top 5 players every year on the radio....This does not indicate that he is going to select them..Benning was gushing about Matt Tkachuk in 2016,calling him one of the best players behind the oppositions net..

 

[Melvin]

You haven't convinced me why 2000 is an inflated projection. Would love to hear your argument.

The drafted players are 22-23 years of age and we are coming up on 600 man games played already.

If Virtanen and McCann only play until the age of 30 and only average 70 games a season we're up to around 1750 NHL games.

Then you have Thatcher Demko to account for. Even if he's just a career NHL backup you're looking at 250 odd games. Ndver mind him developing into a starter.

So you're betting Tryamkin never comes back to the NHL and Gustav Forsling never has a career from here on out to have a safe probability to stay under 2000 man games.

Not to mention where the numbers go if McCann and Virtanen play their 31, 22, 33 year old seasons etc...

Sure. But there's also the possibility that one of them suffers a serious injury, misses an entire season or worse, has to retire at 27 ala Cody Hodgson. The odds of that happening are low but have to be factored into a mean projection. 875 NHL games is a LOT of games, especially for players who aren't top-line scorers. Just look at the quality depth guys from the Canucks 2011 team and see how many of them never got there: Samuelsson, Lapierre, Higgins, Torres, Hansen; these guys were all very good 3rd line type players and all were done after around 600 games. Even a guy like Burrows who had a one-of-a-kind remarkable career barely got to the 900 game mark.

I think you are just really underestimating how hard it is to play that many games. Realistically you would probably set the individual over/under at about 650 for those two players. That's 1,300 combined, which means that even if you get 500 games from Demko (Cory Schneider has 379) it STILL leaves you 200 games short, and you're banking on getting that from Forsling (21 games this season) and Tryamkin (0.)

I mean, maybe I was overly harsh but it just seems like way too high to set as a *median.*

It does raise an interesting question though. What is the average number of games played for players who had X games through their age Y season, where X is Jake Virtanen's games played and Y is, uh, his age.

I'll get back to you on that. Well, back to me since I asked it. I'll get back to me on that.

 

[Melvin]

aren't rathbone (who weisbrod, not brackett, was heavily pushing for) and demko the only new england area picks that we've made in the past 20 years.

in the potentially-scripted 2018 mic'd up video brackett seemed pretty fixated on madden (not a new england area pick) though.

Gaudette.

 

[Pastor Of Muppetz]

Weren't the rumours mostly that our interviews with Hughes didn't go well?

I knew as the pick was happening that it would be Hughes because of what Burke said but going into the day I was pretty sure it was going to be Dobson or Tkachuk.

Incorrect...Weisbrod is very tight with the Hughes family....Benning told Hughes father that Quinn would not get past the Canucks if he was still available.