18/19 MGMT thread VIIII

[Melvin]

You're certainly lofty in your projections and expectations.

45 NHL players have ever hit 500 goals. I like Brock as much as the next guy, but I probably would've used "one of the better goal scorers during his career" as a benchmark, because it takes talent and longevity to reach those massive milestones. Kids already missed 1/4 of the games available to him 1.5 years into his career.

Here is how Brock ranks among those players, in terms of goals through age-21:

Player	GP	G	G/GP	TotalGP	TotalG	G/GP post-21
Wayne Gretzky	399	315	0.79	1487	894	0.53
Dale Hawerchuk	319	175	0.55	1188	518	0.39
Mario Lemieux	215	145	0.67	915	690	0.78
Mark Messier	354	134	0.38	1756	694	0.40
Jeremy Roenick	257	129	0.50	1363	513	0.35
Jaromir Jagr	311	125	0.40	1733	766	0.45
Michel Goulet	311	124	0.40	1089	548	0.54
Mike Bossy	153	122	0.80	752	573	0.75
Pierre Turgeon	314	120	0.38	1294	515	0.40
Steve Yzerman	291	114	0.39	1514	692	0.47
Mike Gartner	235	111	0.47	1432	708	0.50
Joe Sakic	230	110	0.48	1378	625	0.45
Bryan Trottier	233	108	0.46	1279	524	0.40
Mats Sundin	240	103	0.43	1346	564	0.42
Ron Francis	290	103	0.36	1731	549	0.31
Bobby Hull	277	101	0.36	1063	610	0.65
Alex Ovechkin	163	98	0.60	1003	607	0.61
Luc Robitaille	159	98	0.00	1431	668	0.45
Mike Modano	235	90	0.38	1499	561	0.37
Brendan Shanahan	281	88	0.31	1524	656	0.46
Dave Andreychuk	185	83	0.45	1639	640	0.38
Patrick Marleau	317	76	0.24	1575	535	0.36
Marian Hossa	226	76	0.34	1309	525	0.41
Dino Ciccarelli	108	73	0.68	1232	608	0.48
Keith Tkachuk	184	72	0.39	1201	538	0.46
Gordie Howe	228	70	0.31	1767	801	0.47
Marcel Dionne	155	68	0.44	1348	731	0.56
Gilbert Perreault	154	64	0.42	1191	512	0.43
Jari Kurri	147	64	0.44	1251	601	0.49
Pat Verbeek	239	63	0.26	1424	522	0.39
Jarome Iginla	234	62	0.26	1554	625	0.43
Frank Mahovlich	203	61	0.30	1181	533	0.48
Guy Lafleur	142	57	0.40	1126	560	0.51
Joe Nieuwendyk	84	56	0.67	1257	564	0.43
Stan Mikita	206	52	0.25	1394	541	0.41
Brock Boeser	110(+)	50(+)	0.45
Mark Recchi	89	31	0.35	1652	577	0.35
Lanny McDonald	134	31	0.23	1111	500	0.48
John Bucyk	104	11	0.11	1540	556	0.38
Jean Beliveau	5	6	1.20	1125	507	0.45
Maurice Richard	16	5	0.31	978	544	0.56
Phil Esposito	27	3	0.11	1282	717	0.57
Brett Hull	0	0	-	1269	741	0.58

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

He has a higher velocity than a lot of these guys so far but he still has some serious catching up to do.

 

[Jack Burton]

I'm coining it first!

I'm a Weisbro!

 

[4Twenty]

It’s not common knowledge no matter how many times you keep saying it is..JB also personally scouted Heiskanen as well

Yeah I wouldn't say it's common knowledge but they definitely telegraphed the way they were going....how many times did Benning say Right shot PP QB leading up to that draft.

And similarly they telegraphed Juolevi in 2016....I cannot recall the exact insinuations, but it wasn't out of the blue that many people felt leading up to the draft that Juolevi was their target. It was pretty obvious they were going for a dman at the very least.

 

[Drop the Sopel]

Careers are getting shorter right now after lengthening in the 1990s.

In 2005-06 there were 24 players aged 37 or older in the NHL. This year there are 11.

It’s a young guy’s sport right now. The dumbest thing most GMs keep doing is offering money and term to non-superstar players past age 30.

It's true. But the guys in their late thirties didn't grow up in the same era of advancements in training/diet/information. If you're a young person today there are a lot of steps you know to take to help with anti-aging and improving performance. I'm 39 and did many things wrong when it comes to nutrition/training when I was in my 20's and early 30's. Things I'v corrected in recent years due to the proliferation of information. I would imagine being an early 20's athlete today that is doing everything right in these areas will be better off than the older generation that didn't have a lifetime of this knowledge.

Not to mention I set the cut off for Virtanen and McCann at 30. Which is a young age to assume they will age out of the league...

 

[I in the Eye]

What we do know is that Nylander,Tkachuk,Sedins and Horvat is a pretty serious top 6

Well, yeah. Would have been great. Tkachuk would be the top 6 winger Benning says he is looking for now. Pettersson was undervalued because he is slight in frame. Canucks were even confident that they could move down a bit and still grab him, until the Rangers moved up. It is not a foregone conclusion that through a different path, Pettersson couldn't have been drafted. Run the draft again, or slip Pettersson down a bit... or move the Canucks up, down, or stay the same in the standings... saying that Pettersson could only have been drafted in our reality is not correct. We don't know what would happen in an alternate reality.

 

[4Twenty]

And he still choose Joulevi over him.

I actually believe the quote was "best player from the top of the circles and down". Which is exactly why I wanted him and why it sucks seeing him do what he does in Calgary of all places.

 

[RandV]

Careers are getting shorter right now after lengthening in the 1990s.

In 2005-06 there were 24 players aged 37 or older in the NHL. This year there are 11.

It’s a young guy’s sport right now. The dumbest thing most GMs keep doing is offering money and term to non-superstar players past age 30.

Not necessarily disagreeing with you but I'm not convinced that much of this effect isn't just statistical noise. If you want to talk about 37+ players now, you're looking at the draft class between 1996-2000 which was a notably poor period for talent. I'd predict in 5 years that number is going to be much higher simply because there's much better players available.

 

[Askel]

Not necessarily disagreeing with you but I'm not convinced that much of this effect isn't just statistical noise. If you want to talk about 37+ players now, you're looking at the draft class between 1996-2000 which was a notably poor period for talent. I'd predict in 5 years that number is going to be much higher simply because there's much better players available.

And one more team might add to that.

 

[Melvin]

18's too soon to judge and 14 isn't really his so that looks about right. 16 is really bad, especially knowing what type of hockey we had to witness for the reward after it all being a vanilla dman who probably wouldn't go in the first round if the draft was re-done.

with OJ out for the year , Vancouver will end up being one of 7 teams to not have any players from that draft play in the NHL yet.

The others:
Pittsburgh (first pick was 55th overall.)
Washington (28th)
Dallas (25th)
L.A. (51st)
NYI (19th)
NYR (81st)

 

[4Twenty]

Not necessarily disagreeing with you but I'm not convinced that much of this effect isn't just statistical noise. If you want to talk about 37+ players now, you're looking at the draft class between 1996-2000 which was a notably poor period for talent. I'd predict in 5 years that number is going to be much higher simply because there's much better players available.

That seems arbitrary.

I have a hard time believing it's statistical noise. Looks like pretty normal age related decline to me. There are 6 players left in the NHL from 2000 draft, 7 from 2001, and 8 from 2002.

Quite a few more from 2003, but lots of these guys look done and are only still playing because of the money they're owed.

 

[Melvin]

Not necessarily disagreeing with you but I'm not convinced that much of this effect isn't just statistical noise. If you want to talk about 37+ players now, you're looking at the draft class between 1996-2000 which was a notably poor period for talent. I'd predict in 5 years that number is going to be much higher simply because there's much better players available.

What's that? We want a graph? You got it!

Interesting. Basically nobody played into their late-30's in the '80s. Gilbert Perreault was the only 35-year-old to play a full season in 1985. Then it started happening more and more frequently in the late '90s and into the 00's where it sort of leveled off and has been declining since 2010.

EDIT: I changed it from age-37 to age-35 as it gave a smoother curve while showing the same trends.

 

[MS]

It's true. But the guys in their late thirties didn't grow up in the same era of advancements in training/diet/information. If you're a young person today there are a lot of steps you know to take to help with anti-aging and improving performance. I'm 39 and did many things wrong when it comes to nutrition/training when I was in my 20's and early 30's. Things I'v corrected in recent years due to the proliferation of information. I would imagine being an early 20's athlete today that is doing everything right in these areas will be better off than the older generation that didn't have a lifetime of this knowledge.

Not to mention I set the cut off for Virtanen and McCann at 30. Which is a young age to assume they will age out of the league...

Every player who is 35 or 38 now has played their entire career with huge focus on diet/nutrition. And again, careers are getting shorter, not longer. This isn’t a thing.

Not necessarily disagreeing with you but I'm not convinced that much of this effect isn't just statistical noise. If you want to talk about 37+ players now, you're looking at the draft class between 1996-2000 which was a notably poor period for talent. I'd predict in 5 years that number is going to be much higher simply because there's much better players available.

Maybe to an extent, but not to the extent of the drop we’ve seen in the last decade.

I mean, look at that ‘super’ 2003 draft. Those guys are 33-34 now and most have fallen off horribly. Guys like Kesler, Phaneuf, Carter, Perry look touch and go to make it to 35. A couple guys (Burns, Bergeron, Pavelski) are still going strong but it isn’t like we’re going to see 10+ guys left from that draft at age 38.

 

[Ryp37]

He didn't just see something in Judd. He took him from part time scout to the top of the staff. The youngest guy there leap-frogged long tenured, old school hockey guys that had been part of the scouting staff for forever. Was a ballsy choice, no question.

And most importantly, Benning made the major changes very quickly. He didn't take 4-5 years to figure it out.

He replaced a Gillis hire who was only in that role for 2 years. Leap frogging Delore isn't anything to write home about. Crawford did as well, whoopee.

Don't feel like quoting everyone but Ted Hampson discovered Boeser, Friedman credited him

Also

 

[Peen]

It’s not common knowledge no matter how many times you keep saying it is..JB also personally scouted Heiskanen as well

I literally said Heiskanen along with Makar.

Are you blind?

 

[Drop the Sopel]

Every player who is 35 or 38 now has played their entire career with huge focus on diet/nutrition. And again, careers are getting shorter, not longer. This isn’t a thing.

Nutrition and training advice has come along way over the last 15 years. We have no idea how it will affect the longevity of guys that are in their early 20's right now. It hasn't had time to play out yet. The way high level athletes look at performance right now is very different from what we were taught 15 years ago.

Do you really believe guys like Virtanen and McCann won't be able to play past the age of 29-30? 37, sure. 30? I just don't see the logical argument to be made.

 

[Melvin]

Nutrition and training advice has come along way over the last 15 years. We have no idea how it will affect the longevity of guys that are in their early 20's right now. It hasn't had time to play out yet. The way high level athletes look at performance right now is very different from what we were taught 15 years ago.

Do you really believe guys like Virtanen and McCann won't be able to play past the age of 29-30? 37, sure. 30? I just don't see the logical argument to be made.

You said that "[t]raining, nutrition and supplementation is also lengthening athletes careers" and I simply asked you where you got this information from.

You had those two averaging 70 games/year to 30 which is as unlikely as them not playing after 30.

 

[Drop the Sopel]

You said that "[t]raining, nutrition and supplementation is also lengthening athletes careers" and I simply asked you where you got this information from.

You had those two averaging 70 games/year to 30 which is as unlikely as them not playing after 30.

Mostly just anecdotal. 15 years ago being told that a whole grain bagel and large glass of orange juice in the morning before training was a good start to the day! Fast forward to the age of 39 and I'm noticeably stronger, significantly leaner and easily in the best shape of my life. Not by working out more often, but by having better science backed training/nutrition advice and focusing on reducing inflammation in the body. Time restricted eating, consuming significantly less carbohydrates, more fat and training in short intervals with high intensity. Athletes today in general are taking better care of their bodies than they were 15 years ago. This should serve them well coming out of their 20's. You see the oldest Canucks putting up the best fitness scores consistently. The Sedins, Tanev, Beagle etc...

I didn't even bring up the one thing that causes most guys to have the game pass them by - their lack of footspeed. On that front, Jake Virtanen is one of the fastest, most powerful skaters in the game. Jared McCann is a tremendous skater as well. If we were talking about big bodies with mediocre strides, sure, question whether they can play to the age of 30. I wouldn't be betting against these 2 high end skaters that have the defensive chops to excel in a checking role if their hands start to fade.

 

[Melvin]

Mostly just anecdotal. 15 years ago being told that a whole grain bagel and large glass of orange juice in the morning before training was a good start to the day! Fast forward to the age of 39 and I'm noticeably stronger, significantly leaner and easily in the best shape of my life. Not by working out more often, but by having better science backed training/nutrition advice and focusing on reducing inflammation in the body. Time restricted eating, consuming significantly less carbohydrates, more fat and training in short intervals with high intensity. Athletes today in general are taking better care of their bodies than they were 15 years ago. This should serve them well coming out of their 20's. You see the oldest Canucks putting up the best fitness scores consistently. The Sedins, Tanev, Beagle etc...

I didn't even bring up the one thing that causes most guys to have the game pass them by - their lack of footspeed. On that front, Jake Virtanen is one of the fastest, most powerful skaters in the game. Jared McCann is a tremendous skater as well. If we were talking about big bodies with mediocre strides, sure, question whether they can play to the age of 30. I wouldn't be betting against these 2 high end skaters that have the defensive chops to excel in a checking role if their hands start to fade.

Being in great shape is a factor in longevity but it's only one of many. The Sedins were still in terrific shape when they retired. Chris Higgins was still in great shape. How fast is your skating now compared to 15 years ago? The game is so fast now; these guys lose a step and they are toast.

Being in good shape, unless you're Jake Dotchin all players are in great shape. This doesn't mean that more players are now playing into their 40's; the evidence so far is to the contrary. PLayers playing in their late 30's peaked in the 70's when conditioning was a joke compared to now. It's only a piece and arguably not even a very large piece.

Fair enough about Virtanen/McCann. I've made my case on them already. I never said they couldn't play past 30, just that a median projection shouldn't be 875 games each, closer to 700.

 

[Drop the Sopel]

Fair enough about Virtanen/McCann. I've made my case on them already. I never said they couldn't play past 30, just that a median projection shouldn't be 875 games each, closer to 700.

Yeah, I projected them both at 750 games. So we were on the same page after all. Give or take half a season's worth of games over the course of their careers.

I was a shitty skater at 19, 29 and 39! That's why I'm a ball hockey player now and only play ice hockey shinny with my daughter.

 

[Melvin]

Yeah, I projected them both at 750 games. So we were on the same page after all. Give or take half a season's worth of games over the course of their careers.

I was a ****ty skater at 19, 29 and 39! That's why I'm a ball hockey player now and only play ice hockey shinny with my daughter.

You said 1750 combined, which is an average of 875 each. Maybe I misunderstood what you meant.

 

[Drop the Sopel]

You said 1750 combined, which is an average of 875 each. Maybe I misunderstood what you meant.

I was thinking 8 more years X 70 games = 560 more games each. Would take them to 30 years of age. And they both sit right around 200 games right now. 760 each.

Added Tryamkin and Forsling's games to the total and kept in mind there is still 30 games left in this season to get to 1750...

 

[Melvin]

I was thinking 8 more years X 70 games = 560 more games each. Would take them to 30 years of age. And they both sit right around 200 games right now. 760 each.

Added Tryamkin and Forsling's games to the total and kept in mind there is still 30 games left in this season to get to 1750...

Ah, gotcha.

Very few players can average 70 games/season until they are 30.

 

[Drop the Sopel]

Ah, gotcha.

Very few players can average 70 games/season until they are 30.

Yeah, I stopped counting at 30 because it leaves a few year buffer for playing beyond the age of 30, which many forwards do. 60 games a year 'til the age of 31 etc... 55 games a year until the age of 32...

And it's probably a bit early to write Forsling off as not playing another NHL game at the age of 22. Which I also did to add another buffer to keep that 2000 game estimate in line.

 

[PG Canuck]

 

[tyhee]

As I write this it is now 34 days since Nilsson was traded for McKenna, all for the purpose of getting Thatcher to the NHL, where with over a month gone since his promotion he has played one NHL game.

In that time Nilsson has played 8 games for the Senators and done well, with a 2.53 GAA, .922 GAA and 3.34 goals saved above average, all according to hockey-reference.com.

It seems really strange that the Canucks couldn't wait until they got the right deal for Nilsson, that is any deal that would have given them a decent AHL goalie on an NHL contract. Now they've got no backup in the NHL (so had to resort to recalling DiPietro on an emergency basis from the OHL (where recently he's been splitting time with a goalie whose stats have been better than his, perhaps due to fatigue on DiPietro's part)) and the Comets have an ECHL starter and PTO backup, with no other goaltender in the system.

At the time the Canucks made the trade they were already down to three healthy goalies on NHL contracts, Markstrom, Nilsson and Demko. They had one goalie on an AHL contract playing in the ECHL and one goalie already out for the season due to injury. There were at least two NHL teams (Phi and Tor) who had injury troubles in goal and needed backups.

None of what has happened was difficult to foresee. It isn't particularly bad luck. There were some among us who expected McKenna to be claimed on waivers (I had posted expecting Toronto to claim him-but it never got as far as the Leafs because Philadelphia had priority.) That having happened and the Canucks being down to 2 NHL goalies, it isn't particularly surprising that in about five weeks after getting into that position, a Canuck goalie got hurt.

It strikes me as an incredible level of incompetence to move Nilsson for nothing, completely screwing the system's goaltending depth, instead of waiting to make the right deal. They may survive it ok, but once again, as has happened from time to time through the years watching this management, it is truly amazing the level of incompetence that has been put on display.

Those of us who consider the Canucks' management incompetent have different main trigger points, as distinguished from all those other things we just shake our heads about. Mine are the extensions given Dorsett and Sbisa, the Gudbranson trade, the Sutter trade, the Eriksson signing, the comment that brought a fine for tampering, the signing of Tryamkin to the wrong number of seasons for an elc and now the Nilsson for nothing trade. Those may not be the most significant in terms of long-term effect on the franchise, but they are the ones that to me most clearly indicate something is wrong.