Speculation: Will The Canucks Make The Playoffs? | Warning Post #86

[CherryToke]

well im just going to point out that Vrbata shot at 6.5% which if he had shot at his career average he would have had 18 goals.

Now if Loui erikson shot at his 13.5% career average instead of the inflated 16.9% he did he would have had 25 goals. So basically we gained 7 goals over 82 games and people think that we have drastically improved.

Im going to go with we miss the playoffs big time probably bottom 3 in the league with Willie as the head coach.

If by chance Willie gets fired mid way through I can see us surging to 8th last in the league with competent coaching

You are ignoring the impact Eriksson has defensively vs Vrbaba. That is an upgrade to say the least.

 

[y2kcanucks]

You are ignoring the impact Eriksson has defensively vs Vrbaba. That is an upgrade to say the least.

And you're ignoring the impact Gudbranson has defensively vs. Hamhuis. That's a huge downgrade to say the least.

 

[CherryToke]

And you're ignoring the impact Gudbranson has defensively vs. Hamhuis. That's a huge downgrade to say the least.

we are taking about Eriksson vs Vrbata here. I never brought up Hamuis or Gud. Take a hike.

 

[y2kcanucks]

we are taking about Eriksson vs Vrbata here. I never brought up Hamuis or Gud. Take a hike.

Unfortunately for you we're talking about the same team and the team's chances of making the playoffs. If you want to look at just two players fine. But if you want to look at the bigger picture it's quite ugly. Your snarkiness suggests you don't like being proven wrong.

 

[CherryToke]

Unfortunately for you we're talking about the same team and the team's chances of making the playoffs. If you want to look at just two players fine. But if you want to look at the bigger picture it's quite ugly. Your snarkiness suggests you don't like being proven wrong.

I was simply pointing out the fact that Eriksson is an upgrade over Vrbata defensively. If you are comparing those two players, that shouldn't be left out. So unless you have something to say about that discussion. Take a hike!

 

[sting101]

Definitely think were better than ARI CGY COL.(14 13 12)

SJ ANA NASH STL DALL are far superior(1-5)

LA and CHI (6 7) have some huge issues. the Hawks have lost 35 goals, more depth and are in cap hell. A repeat of all their top players health and production is necessary to avoid a massive drop off. 90pts might be a reality if they can't do some cap magic and improve the roster.

LA should be fine but they definitely are starting to look really slow. Sutter's system and their core will assure a 95-100 pt team imo.

MINN is a team in retool mode. Steal and Stewart are decent players but SLOW and they have no real push in any key spots on the roster. they will stay competitive but i would expect 85-90pts again.

EDM and WPG and VCR are primed for some big changes.

EDM- may have the McDavid factor and Lucic and Larsson added but it came at a steep price. Hall was an elite player lost, the defense is improved but is still inexperienced and their forwards are laughable 2 way players. Maroon Kassian Lucic RNH Eberle Yakupov???? ouch its still a big work in progress.... but i guess they could dominate with an incredible core if the rest of that pathetic roster doesn't wreck it all with dumb penalties and weak effort. GF 203 GA 245 last yr. will score a few more.....how many more can they keep out???

WPG- My vote for most improved team. LAINE EHLERS CONNOR LITTLE healthy, MATTHIAS HOWDEN. Easily a 95-100 pt team with respectable goaltending IMO.

VCR- ERIKSSON SUTTER EDLER GUDBRANSON should have a far more significant impact than HAMHUIS VRBATA and injury replacements. lets be honest though.....were really relying on HORVAT BAERTSCHI VIRTANEN and RODIN GRANLUND LARSEN to have a significant impact. optimistically being healthy and heavy dose of progression and we can contend for 7th/8th. A far cry from days of yore but the new reality

 

[Bleach Clean]

Bubble team. Could go either way.

Who else do you see on the "Bubble" that the Canucks could unseat? MIN? NSH?

I think SJ, ANA, LA, DAL, STL and CHI are good bets to repeat their appearance next year. NSH should make it with the addition of Subban and a full year of Johansen. Which leaves MIN...?

Not even close! How will they improve nearly as much as other non-playoff teams, let alone the ones that are already good.
...
A better question is who will the Canucks finish in front of in their conference. I'd like to hear those arguments.

As would I. I'd like the hear the rationale behind proclaiming the team makes it while taking into account the actual competition, not just in a vacuum.

Yes.

Who are they supplanting in your opinion?

Edit: Their best chance is for the team to ride conversion rates to belie their possession metrics, and to have an unexpected fall from MIN, LA or NSH.

 

[Bleach Clean]

It's incredible that anyone thinks a "good sign going forward" would be to tank again in 2-4 years. I have yet to see someone "lean in" to the Oilers/Flames extended tank as a good thing like this?

I thought the same, but left it alone on the first pass.

The logic here is, if I'm understanding it correctly: If the kids show well and they just barely miss (bubble) or barely make it, then that bodes well for the post-Sedin future where the team still bottoms out. They miss the playoffs, well then it was because the kids weren't good enough and we needed the top pick anyways... Win-Win.

 

[Evolu7ion]

Definitely think were better than ARI CGY COL.(14 13 12)

SJ ANA NASH STL DALL are far superior(1-5)

LA and CHI (6 7) have some huge issues. the Hawks have lost 35 goals, more depth and are in cap hell. A repeat of all their top players health and production is necessary to avoid a massive drop off. 90pts might be a reality if they can't do some cap magic and improve the roster.

LA should be fine but they definitely are starting to look really slow. Sutter's system and their core will assure a 95-100 pt team imo.

MINN is a team in retool mode. Steal and Stewart are decent players but SLOW and they have no real push in any key spots on the roster. they will stay competitive but i would expect 85-90pts again.

EDM and WPG and VCR are primed for some big changes.

EDM- may have the McDavid factor and Lucic and Larsson added but it came at a steep price. Hall was an elite player lost, the defense is improved but is still inexperienced and their forwards are laughable 2 way players. Maroon Kassian Lucic RNH Eberle Yakupov???? ouch its still a big work in progress.... but i guess they could dominate with an incredible core if the rest of that pathetic roster doesn't wreck it all with dumb penalties and weak effort. GF 203 GA 245 last yr. will score a few more.....how many more can they keep out???

WPG- My vote for most improved team. LAINE EHLERS CONNOR LITTLE healthy, MATTHIAS HOWDEN. Easily a 95-100 pt team with respectable goaltending IMO.

VCR- ERIKSSON SUTTER EDLER GUDBRANSON should have a far more significant impact than HAMHUIS VRBATA and injury replacements. lets be honest though.....were really relying on HORVAT BAERTSCHI VIRTANEN and RODIN GRANLUND LARSEN to have a significant impact. optimistically being healthy and heavy dose of progression and we can contend for 7th/8th. A far cry from days of yore but the new reality

I don't think we'll be better than Calgary. CGY just added Brian Elliot, they'll have Giordano back for a full season and healthy, and have Sam Bennett ready to take a big jump forward. Calgary is better at every single position IMO expect perhaps winger depth... not that that matters a whole lot anyways.

I also don't think we're better than Colorado, the AVs have way too much talent to struggle again. Mackinnon and Duchene down the middle is pretty solid.

 

[GrogZilla]

If they had resigned Hamhuis & got an NHL coach then i'd think they had a decent chance at the playoffs.

As it is I seriously doubt Willie can 1 2 3 4 this team into the playoffs.

 

[Bleach Clean]

Take the Gambling/OT talk to PM people. Stay on topic.

 

[Evolu7ion]

1) The defensive core of Tanev/Edler/RealGud/Hutton/Tryamkin/ will be one of the league's worst defensive groups, and will be complete ineffective at preventing prime high % goal scoring chances.

2) Markstrom/Miller won't be good enough to steal games and bail out the defensive deficiency noted in 1) above.

3) The offensive group won't be able to outscore its way out of trouble to make up for the goaltending and defensive inadequacy in 1) and 2) above.

4) A lack of puck possession ability will compound all three points above, and make the negative impact even worse.

The end result - bottom 3 in the league. Sorry to be such a pessimist, but at the end of the day I really just believe I'm being realistic. And hey, at least this time around we may end up with a true lottery pick and Benning's head on a spike at the end of the season

 

[Nick Lang]

While it is pretty bad, the depth at forward looks downright amazing compared to what they have on defense. If the coach and management had a brain, they could form 2 passable lines for the top 6 with Sutter anchoring a hard minute 3rd line. That probably won't happen, given that they see Sutter as the offensive #2 guy, but at least it's possible to imagine a mediocre forward lineup.

On the back end, there's really no even passable solution with the personnel the team has right now. Despite giving up valuable assets to improve the present iteration of the defense, somehow this team is still one injury away from a guy like Sbisa in the top 4. Three offseasons into his tenure and it's looking like Benning doesn't have the faintest clue how to assemble an NHL defense.

I completely disagree. This defense is a complete reflection of Gillis locking every one up to NTC term.

 

[Proto]

I completely disagree. This defense is a complete reflection of Gillis locking every one up to NTC term.

lmfao this is the coldest, oldest take.

 

[Proto]

I thought the same, but left it alone on the first pass.

The logic here is, if I'm understanding it correctly: If the kids show well and they just barely miss (bubble) or barely make it, then that bodes well for the post-Sedin future where the team still bottoms out. They miss the playoffs, well then it was because the kids weren't good enough and we needed the top pick anyways... Win-Win.

Yeah but when your best-case scenarios are "our youth/team is still bad and we end up sucking so we get high picks accidentally" or "they're good and we're still rebuilding for another 5 years" those are two pretty bleak options

 

[wonton15]

Maybe if Sbisa wasn't on this team, Hamhuis was re-signed for Sbisa's money and Willie wasn't our coach

 

[MS]

I completely disagree. This defense is a complete reflection of Gillis locking every one up to NTC term.

LOL. Are you actually being serious here?

There is 1 guy on the 15-16 blueline signed by Gillis (Edler) and his contract is hardly a problem.

Our defense sucks because Jim Benning is a bad GM and a bad talent evaluator who has acquired bad players.

 

[Peter Bazooka]

The Canucks will barely make the playoffs after an improbable hot streak at the end of the season and get bounced in four games.

 

[quat]

I completely disagree. This defense is a complete reflection of Gillis locking every one up to NTC term.

So, essentially, anything bad with the team = Gillis fault and anything good with the team = Benning? If that's your logic, then I can understand your post, otherwise, it's completely nonsensical.

 

[Jabba The Hutton]

I think the upgrades to our team will land us in the bottom 10 range. Just not enough depth to overcome any injuries. I do think we will perform better than last year though. Excited to see if the Horvat-Baertschi duo can consistently perform like they did in 2016 (which was around a 40pt pace for bae and 55 pt pace for horvat).

 

[opendoor]

I completely disagree. This defense is a complete reflection of Gillis locking every one up to NTC term.

There's 1 contract on defense left from Gillis. This is Benning's defense and he's obviously proud of it based on the fact that last year he thought Weber or Bartkowski in the top 4 was a recipe for a 100 point team.

 

[banme*]

Who are they supplanting in your opinion?

Edit: Their best chance is for the team to ride conversion rates to belie their possession metrics, and to have an unexpected fall from MIN, LA or NSH.

My thought process is:

I like posting dissenting opinions, whether they reflect my true opinion or not. YMMV.

 

[NuxFan09]

Nah. There's a chance they improve a bit but they're not making the playoffs. Not even close.

 

[y2kcanucks]

Nah. There's a chance they improve a bit but they're not making the playoffs. Not even close.

Yup. This is a better question for a team like Calgary. A good team that was sunk by awful goaltending that has now addressed that problem. Personally not sure about Elliott outside of Hitch's system but we'll see. Either way they're much closer than we are.

 

[PM]

Benning hasn't signed a worthwhile player without giving them a NTC so far so I'm not sure how anyone can still blame the NTC on Gillis. Anyone reasonable anyways.

Not sure why anyone would think we would be better than the Coyotes this year. They were better than us last year, have a bunch of young high impact players ready to take the next step this season (Domi, Strome, Devorak, Rieder, Deangelo, Chychrun? OEL is still only 24...), they also had key injuries last year just like us (shocking that we are not the only team to experience injuries...), have a MUCH better coach and they added another top-4 defenseman in Goligoski with the only subtraction being Boedker back at the deadline.

They are in a much, much better position than us now and going forward. Their only disadvantage is money but their roster cap hits are so low that it shouldn't be an issue for at least a few years.