Speculation: Will The Canucks Make The Playoffs? | Warning Post #86

[BROCK HUGHES]

We are one goalie injury away from being a lottery team again. If any of the Sedins get hurt same thing.

Personally I am hoping for the stealth tank and a top 5 pick again. The club has to sell hope because we are not selling out when we are not winning. If we support the team when they are rebuilding and are vocal about it, maybe eventually they will do a proper tear down and rebuild.

I think this is far more probable than sneaking into 8th.

Well its going to be a long year.This team can not stay healthy at all.Both Edler and Tanev seem to be injured lots.Miller will some how get injured.So yeah i do see us competing for a lotto pick this year,but hey i could be wrong.

 

[mathonwy]

In terms of outcome? Not even in the slightest.

I dunno about you but for me hockey is supposed to be enjoyable.

And there's nothing enjoyable cheering my team to lose and there's nothing enjoyable getting stressed out watching the Canucks win meaningless post-TDL games because Jimbo didn't trade Hammer and traded for Granlund at the TDL.

Enjoyable means watching that tic-tac-goal play from the Sedins and seeing big smiles from both while they're celebrating another gorgeous goal.

Until the fat lady has truly sung (and it was pretty darn clear she had by last season's TDL), I'm not a fan of tank cheering regardless of how deep the draft is.

 

[mathonwy]

Well its going to be a long year.This team can not stay healthy at all.Both Edler and Tanev seem to be injured lots.Miller will some how get injured.So yeah i do see us competing for a lotto pick this year,but hey i could be wrong.

Gudbranson also comes with an injurious background.

Did you know the last time a top 4 Canuck defensemen played 80+ was Hammer and Edler in the 2011-12 season?

Bart played 80 games last season. Maybe we should have brought him back.

 

[opendoor]

I don't think we should overlook this, with all the reveling in how awful the canucks were last year

big circle = more important players
only Edm worse overall

Isn't that "more important players" metric the same one that had Sbisa's time missed this year being equivalent to losing one of the Sedins for 30 games or Tanev for 20 games simply because the Canucks are dumb enough to feed him a bunch of ice time?

 

[dwarf]

Finishing with a top 5 pick isn't a stealth tank, it's the result of an utter failure on management in building a hockey team when they're actually trying to win.

To me the idea of a stealth tank is management trying to pretend that they are competing to sell tickets. Shuffling the deck to create hype and sales.

When they are playing guys like Dorsett, Sbisa, and now Gudbrandson. I am seeing Goon power and something for the fans to cheer about. But not a lot of wins in the win column.

 

[racerjoe]

I don't think we should overlook this, with all the reveling in how awful the canucks were last year

big circle = more important players
only Edm worse overall

This chart is super flawed though. First most of the Canucks injuries happened when they were already out of the playoffs. Edler, Tanev, Even Sutter's second injury. Really anyone of importance who got hurt, was hurt when statistically we were well out of the playoffs. We looked like we were in it points wise, even though we were not when you looked at points percentage because we had played so many more games.

I remember people were pointing to that chart mid season when we were terrible, and showing how healthy we had been up to that point.

Isn't that "more important players" metric the same one that had Sbisa's time missed this year being equivalent to losing one of the Sedins for 30 games or Tanev for 20 games simply because the Canucks are dumb enough to feed him a bunch of ice time?

Yes it is. It was going to be my second point. You can't account for stupidity.

 

[MikeK]

Well its going to be a long year.This team can not stay healthy at all.Both Edler and Tanev seem to be injured lots.Miller will some how get injured.So yeah i do see us competing for a lotto pick this year,but hey i could be wrong.

It's almost a given that the team will suffer some sort of long term injury to one of the players we count on. It's inevitable with this team and the travel we do so it's just a matter of who and when. I will be shocked if this team is anywhere other than a lottery pick.

 

[Bougieman]

I dunno about you but for me hockey is supposed to be enjoyable.

And there's nothing enjoyable cheering my team to lose and there's nothing enjoyable getting stressed out watching the Canucks win meaningless post-TDL games because Jimbo didn't trade Hammer and traded for Granlund at the TDL.

Enjoyable means watching that tic-tac-goal play from the Sedins and seeing big smiles from both while they're celebrating another gorgeous goal.

Until the fat lady has truly sung (and it was pretty darn clear she had by last season's TDL), I'm not a fan of tank cheering regardless of how deep the draft is.

Exactly how I feel. Thank you for articulating it so adeptly.

 

[VanJack]

I dunno about you but for me hockey is supposed to be enjoyable.

And there's nothing enjoyable cheering my team to lose and there's nothing enjoyable getting stressed out watching the Canucks win meaningless post-TDL games because Jimbo didn't trade Hammer and traded for Granlund at the TDL.

Enjoyable means watching that tic-tac-goal play from the Sedins and seeing big smiles from both while they're celebrating another gorgeous goal.

Until the fat lady has truly sung (and it was pretty darn clear she had by last season's TDL), I'm not a fan of tank cheering regardless of how deep the draft is.

I hear you....but sometimes you just have to look at the bigger picture.....to me the perfect year would be the team crapping the bed out of the gate, and Willie getting axed....Green gets called up to coach and the team goes on a winning streak in essentially late-season garbage time, using the younger players....then it's on to the amateur draft to hopefully continue the rebuild with a lottery pick....no ill-will towards guys like the Sedins or Burrows, but they'll be long gone before this team is ever in the Stanley Cup conversation again.

 

[kurt]

I'd rather be disappointed and lose interest for 3 years every 15 years with confidence in a sensible long-term plan, than be disappointed for 10 years every 15 years and regularly question the reasoning of leadership.

 

[mathonwy]

I hear you....but sometimes you just have to look at the bigger picture.....to me the perfect year would be the team crapping the bed out of the gate, and Willie getting axed....Green gets called up to coach and the team goes on a winning streak in essentially late-season garbage time, using the younger players....then it's on to the amateur draft to hopefully continue the rebuild with a lottery pick....no ill-will towards guys like the Sedins or Burrows, but they'll be long gone before this team is ever in the Stanley Cup conversation again.

I can only cheer for realistic possibilities and the team crapping the bed right out of the gates, IMO, is not a realistic possibility. Eriksson is not moody Vrbata, as far as anyone knows, Sutter isn't hurt and a fresh Miller is a good Miller.

However... if they DO start off the season in shambles (IE, special teams are effed/Miller is a sieve/Gud doing a Sbisa imitiation/Dorsett on the first line than I will be first in line for the tank train.

 

[biturbo19]

I dunno about you but for me hockey is supposed to be enjoyable.

And there's nothing enjoyable cheering my team to lose and there's nothing enjoyable getting stressed out watching the Canucks win meaningless post-TDL games because Jimbo didn't trade Hammer and traded for Granlund at the TDL.

Enjoyable means watching that tic-tac-goal play from the Sedins and seeing big smiles from both while they're celebrating another gorgeous goal.

Until the fat lady has truly sung (and it was pretty darn clear she had by last season's TDL), I'm not a fan of tank cheering regardless of how deep the draft is.

In a somewhat bizarre twist, i seem to completely agree with you here. This is pretty much exactly how i feel.

I want to watch a team that sets out and is trying to win. A team that rolls into the season with high aspirations and does some really cool stuff on the ice that entertains me a lot. I want to cheer for that to win.

If it comes to the point of being a season beyond salvage, i have absolutely no qualms with seeing the team do what they did post deadline-ish time last season, where they basically sat down and decided to concede the season, start resting up and getting ready to reload for next year. Which involves playing a ton of youth and seeing what happens - which is predictably, a really poor record, and a better draft pick!

But that's pretty much ideal formula for a season.

Set out to make the playoffs. Watch them play hard. Watch them do cool things. Then...either watch playoffs. Or watch kids while the team sandbags the last 1/4 of the season. Once it's out of reach, it's out of reach...and i think it's human nature even amongst competitors like the Sedins to roll the throttle back a bit and save something for the next real opportunity to do something meaningful.

 

[JuniorNelson]

I feel it is predictable that if you ice a very small team they will be run in this division. You need to have some sort of deterrent or you will lose many players to injury and others will play through them, badly.

On this basis I believe the Canucks will keep returning the same result they have for years, now. Duh!

The Canucks have more issues than just being little. They are soft as a philosophical thing. They compound this with inappropriate coaching. You cannot play a slow, brittle top line in unsheltered situations and expect season long success. Repeating the process every year while spinning it as a new approach with new expectations is the definition of insane.

Canucks, in order to make the playoffs this season must first return intact from the new preseason tournament. That will happen! Then, they must get the coach fired. Going winless into game twenty should do it. Then, with new deployment the Sedin line must blossom and approach point a game production from all. Secondary scoring will need to emerge if they are going to work their way back into contention. Unlikely candidates must fill the uncast enforcer role, every night, without injury. Team toughness is unlikely unless the vets buy into it and lead by example. This possibility is extremely remote!

If these very unlikely events occur, they still need a hot goalie to go on a godly run and maintain it under playoff conditions. Several players must have a career year. If they do it, the playoffs can last as long as the frail old men can withstand it.

None of these things will happen and certainly not in concert. WD won't be fired until , IMO, February. JB won't be replaced in time to bolster the team's roster at the deadline. There are no weaker teams to feast upon, as in past playoff seasons.

It is very, very bleak.

 

[DS7]

I don't think we should overlook this, with all the reveling in how awful the canucks were last year

big circle = more important players
only Edm worse overall

This probably brings up another question, is this just because of the travel schedule or do the Canucks need to re-evaluate their training staff?

 

[dwarf]

Yeah, I also keep forgetting how brutal our coach is. The man simply does not learn from his mistakes. Vey was almost our first line center towards the end of the year, and now he is not even in the NHL. Again.

Desjardins is great for the 1234, but not for winning hockey games.

Here is my crystal ball.

Dorsett and Etem battling it out as the Sedin linemate. Sbisa top 3 left Dman, Miller playing first 20 games straight, then injured for 30.

Somehow the team hangs in the mix until a day after the trade deadline, so Jimbo and co. have excuse to not trade expiring contracts. Even if they are out of it, they will messier it up and get nothing.

Then manage to tank it down to 5th last. Lose Lottery and pick 8th.

 

[SillyRabbit]

I'd rather be disappointed and lose interest for 3 years every 15 years with confidence in a sensible long-term plan, than be disappointed for 10 years every 15 years and regularly question the reasoning of leadership.

This.

I'd rather us be unwatchable for 3-4 years if it meant we would have an exciting young talented team that could grow into a contender, a la Edmonton, Calgary, Toronto, etc.

 

[mathonwy]

This.

I'd rather us be unwatchable for 3-4 years if it meant we would have an exciting young talented team that could grow into a contender, a la Edmonton, Calgary, Toronto, etc.

History has already shown us that that you don't need one to have the other. EG. WCE era and then the Sedin era while having piss poor drafting (Burr being signed as an undrafted player, Kesler being drafted in the 20s, Hansen 287th overall, Hammer as a free agent, etc)

Edmonton has shown us that you can have top 10 picks coming out the butt hole and you can still suck eggs.

Eriksson is the right move from a team cohesion and prospect development point of view. We want as solid of a top 6 as possible to ensure our vets don't get discouraged and start tuning out. More importantly, a solid top 6 allows our youngsters to develop at a natural organic pace under sheltered minutes. Everything that DIDN'T happen last season but DID the season before.

When the vets did the heavy lifting in the 14-15 season, the youngsters were free of the burden of HAVING to score, free to make mistakes and free to just do their thing (which Horvat and Kenins did and Vey..sort of did). As well, Eriksson makes WD's job a whole lot easier because god knows, WD can use all the help he can get.

We don't need to be a bottom feeder to have a competitive team. We just need smart business people in our front office with good scouting / development systems.

The worst development environment is that of a losing one. Losing begets more losing begets apathy and when your vets start becoming apathetic, nobody learns a damn thing (EG. Virtanen and McCann). This is what happened last season and it sure wasn't pretty.

edit.

Hmm... I got Eriksson on the brain and forgot what thread I was in. Sorry bout that.

 

[bossram]

I dunno about you but for me hockey is supposed to be enjoyable.

And there's nothing enjoyable cheering my team to lose and there's nothing enjoyable getting stressed out watching the Canucks win meaningless post-TDL games because Jimbo didn't trade Hammer and traded for Granlund at the TDL.

Enjoyable means watching that tic-tac-goal play from the Sedins and seeing big smiles from both while they're celebrating another gorgeous goal.

Until the fat lady has truly sung (and it was pretty darn clear she had by last season's TDL), I'm not a fan of tank cheering regardless of how deep the draft is.

That's your view.

Personally, I'd get the most enjoyment from the Canucks winning the Stanley Cup. As currently constructed, they will not do that and do not have much hope of doing in that in the future.

I think a full-blown rebuild is more condusive to a Stanley Cup and thus, my own maximum enjoyment of the team.

 

[mathonwy]

That's your view.

Personally, I'd get the most enjoyment from the Canucks winning the Stanley Cup. As currently constructed, they will not do that and do not have much hope of doing in that in the future.

I think a full-blown rebuild is more condusive to a Stanley Cup and thus, my own maximum enjoyment of the team.

It certainly is. That's why I said for me.

Thanks for reinforcing it though.

Out of curiosity, what does a full-blown rebuild entail at this point of time?

Considering that Dorsett, Miller and Sbisa are pretty much trade immune right now because of their respective contracts, Sutter locked up at 4.375M till 20-21 and Eriksson locked up at 6M AAV till 21-22.

 

[bossram]

It certainly is. That's why I said for me.

Thanks for reinforcing it though.

Out of curiosity, what does a full-blown rebuild entail at this point of time?

Considering that Dorsett, Miller and Sbisa are pretty much trade immune right now because of their respective contracts, Sutter locked up at 4.375M till 20-21 and Eriksson locked up at 6M AAV till 21-22.

I would consider trading anyone outside of Horvat, Hutton, Tanev, Virtanen, other prospects for the right price. Even the Sedins. Someone like Edler should certainly be moved.

The reason we have such atrocious contracts on the team is directly attributable to management. The current direction of the team is just spinning its wheels in mediocrity.

 

[Biggest Canuck Fan]

Not that my 2 cents means anything, but as long as Willie is the coach the Canucks will be hard pressed to do something, simply because he has a tough time putting players in successful roles.

I think the Canucks are good enough to make the playoffs, but there is no way even if they get there they do anything... not until the young talent matures, and hey maybe we'll see that this season who knows.

 

[mathonwy]

In a somewhat bizarre twist, i seem to completely agree with you here. This is pretty much exactly how i feel.

I want to watch a team that sets out and is trying to win. A team that rolls into the season with high aspirations and does some really cool stuff on the ice that entertains me a lot. I want to cheer for that to win.

If it comes to the point of being a season beyond salvage, i have absolutely no qualms with seeing the team do what they did post deadline-ish time last season, where they basically sat down and decided to concede the season, start resting up and getting ready to reload for next year. Which involves playing a ton of youth and seeing what happens - which is predictably, a really poor record, and a better draft pick!

But that's pretty much ideal formula for a season.

Set out to make the playoffs. Watch them play hard. Watch them do cool things. Then...either watch playoffs. Or watch kids while the team sandbags the last 1/4 of the season. Once it's out of reach, it's out of reach...and i think it's human nature even amongst competitors like the Sedins to roll the throttle back a bit and save something for the next real opportunity to do something meaningful.

I knew one of these days the stars would align.



The big problem is the bolded part though.

Our management was completely and utterly clueless last season which culminated in absolutely nothing happening at the TDL.

This really is inexcusable. Any fool could have seen this coming in Christmas where we tanked the "must" game against Boston 0-4. When you got a team that is playing such unmotivated hockey so early in the season against a supposed rival the playoffs are a pipe dream (not to mention all of the BS side drama that was happening).

Management really screwed this team through their complete lack of team and market awareness. There is no plausible excuse for letting Vrbata and Hammer go for nothing. A competent executive would have been planning trade strategies and scenarios for both players in January (EG. Leafs trading Phaneuf at the beginning of February). The sooner we get new execs in our front office the better for everyone.

 

[y2kcanucks]

I dunno about you but for me hockey is supposed to be enjoyable.

And there's nothing enjoyable cheering my team to lose and there's nothing enjoyable getting stressed out watching the Canucks win meaningless post-TDL games because Jimbo didn't trade Hammer and traded for Granlund at the TDL.

Enjoyable means watching that tic-tac-goal play from the Sedins and seeing big smiles from both while they're celebrating another gorgeous goal.

Until the fat lady has truly sung (and it was pretty darn clear she had by last season's TDL), I'm not a fan of tank cheering regardless of how deep the draft is.

For me there's nothing enjoyable about watching these idiot managers destroying my favourite hockey team.

There's nothing enjoyable about blindly cheering on a team that I know doesn't stand a chance.

There's nothing enjoyable about getting excited for certain prospects only to see them given away by idiot management.

There's nothing enjoyable about cheering on for meaningless wins when that will only extend management's stay here, and will achieve nothing but a worse draft pick in the end. I'm not naive to think this team can legitimately compete in the playoffs.

 

[RandV]

For me there's nothing enjoyable about watching these idiot managers destroying my favourite hockey team.

There's nothing enjoyable about blindly cheering on a team that I know doesn't stand a chance.

There's nothing enjoyable about getting excited for certain prospects only to see them given away by idiot management.

There's nothing enjoyable about cheering on for meaningless wins when that will only extend management's stay here, and will achieve nothing but a worse draft pick in the end. I'm not naive to think this team can legitimately compete in the playoffs.

Pretty much. Was not fun watching Benning implode the team last summer, then seeing the entirely predictable results play through as the season went on. Where long time vets and useful players are tossed out for guys like Prust, Dorsett, Vey, Sbisa, and Bartkowski.

For me it's especially painful because these are the last few seasons of the Sedin's career, and we're going to have to watch them go out with a whimper or on another team.

 

[y2kcanucks]

Pretty much. Was not fun watching Benning implode the team last summer, then seeing the entirely predictable results play through as the season went on. Where long time vets and useful players are tossed out for guys like Prust, Dorsett, Vey, Sbisa, and Bartkowski.

For me it's especially painful because these are the last few seasons of the Sedin's career, and we're going to have to watch them go out with a whimper or on another team.

I don't really care about that. The Sedins aren't going to win a Cup here. This is a team that needs to rebuild but it seems like management thinks they can contend while the Sedins are still here. It's a complete joke and utter failure on their part at identifying how poor the team really is (mostly thanks to their own transactions).