Speculation: Will The Canucks Make The Playoffs? | Warning Post #86

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LeftCoast

Registered User
Aug 1, 2006
9,052
304
Vancouver
I think it's possible, but it depends on a bunch of positive developments and a lot of luck.

Looking at the rest of the division:

  • Does Edmonton get better - with a full year of McDavid and the addition of Lucic, Puljujarvi and Larsson and another year of NHL experience for the likes of Draisaitl, Klefbom and Nurse? They keep promising to turn the corner, but ...
  • What trajectories are Anaheim, Los Angeles and Calgary on? You could make the case for either improvement or a decline.
  • Has San Jose truely broken through and retooled on the fly? Can they expect consistently high performance out of talented and deep, but aging line up?
  • What kind of team does it take to win in the Pacific Division? If you can only choose 2 of Big, Fast or Skilled, which do you go with, and which ever way, does it work in the playoffs?

Looking internally:

Can our younger and bigger defense make up for the loss of Hamhuis? Last year's D was decimated by injuries and lacked depth after Hamhuis, Edler and Tanev. If the core stays healthy, Ben Hutton is able to build on his rookie season and Gudbranson provides the physical, shut down presence they acquired him for, the net effect could be better than what we had on most game days last season. Bartkowski was dreadful, Sbisa was exposed to too high minutes and Weber took a major step backwards. If Tryamkin can be effective and physical in a 3rd pairing role, and Larsson can provide some puck movement and offense without being a liability this should be an improvement over Bart and Weber.

Can we score enough? The Sedins started the season well, but injuries and wear and tear have caught up to them and they have tailed off drastically in the 2nd half of the last several seasons. If Loui Eriksson can rejuvenate them while taking some of the defensive pressure off of them, perhaps they can be close to PPG players again. Are Sutter and Hansen 2nd line players? With some protection, can Horvat take the next step as a 200 ft. Centre? Can Baertchi and Virtanen build on last season? Is Rodin or for that matter Etem NHLers?

Our goal tending seems to be in good condition. Miller can be outstanding for 30 to 50 games and Markstrom is going to push him for starts. But how will WD deploy them?

I think many of the pieces are there, but it's going to take positive answers to most of those questions and some help from within the division.
 

MS

1%er
Mar 18, 2002
53,740
84,818
Vancouver, BC
It would be pretty shocking, but it's never impossible.

We'd need a ton of things to go really, really right in order for it to happen, though. Would need to be bottom-5 in the league in man-games missed and have multiple players have unexpected breakout seasons.

Really, this is probably about an 85 point, 12th place team.
 

opendoor

Registered User
Dec 12, 2006
11,719
1,403
A big issue is we still lack NHL caliber depth at forward...

We'll be in trouble if run into multiple injuries at once upfront.

While it is pretty bad, the depth at forward looks downright amazing compared to what they have on defense. If the coach and management had a brain, they could form 2 passable lines for the top 6 with Sutter anchoring a hard minute 3rd line. That probably won't happen, given that they see Sutter as the offensive #2 guy, but at least it's possible to imagine a mediocre forward lineup.

On the back end, there's really no even passable solution with the personnel the team has right now. Despite giving up valuable assets to improve the present iteration of the defense, somehow this team is still one injury away from a guy like Sbisa in the top 4. Three offseasons into his tenure and it's looking like Benning doesn't have the faintest clue how to assemble an NHL defense.
 

Trelane

Registered User
Feb 12, 2013
1,987
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Salusa Secundus
I put our playoff chances at 40%.

-there are enough 2nd and 3rd year kids in the line up to offset Sedin decline and Hansen's high shooting %
-Eriksson, Rodin and Larsson should handily outscore Vrbata, Higgins and Bartkowski
-most improvement likely to come from healthy Edler and Sutter

There is comfort knowing that, as always, at least two of Leafs, Oilers, Jets and Flames will be worse than us despite their sexier, lottery enhanced prospects and supposedly competent management teams. :)
 

MS

1%er
Mar 18, 2002
53,740
84,818
Vancouver, BC
There is comfort knowing that, as always, at least two of Leafs, Oilers, Jets and Flames will be worse than us despite their sexier, lottery enhanced prospects and supposedly competent management teams. :)

Leafs will probably be worse than us, but they're ok with that.

I'd be surprised if any of those other teams were worse than us next year.
 

Evolu7ion

#firelindenning
Sep 20, 2010
3,726
7
Victoria, BC
People are really underestimating the accuracy of Vegas house. The guys/gals who create those odds are absolute sharks... they don't screw up. Canucks are literally LAST... we have the worst odds out of any team in the league at winning the cup, which would require making the playoffs.
 
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y2kcanucks

Le Sex God
Aug 3, 2006
71,229
10,319
Surrey, BC
Leafs will probably be worse than us, but they're ok with that.

I'd be surprised if any of those other teams were worse than us next year.

I don't even know how probable that is. Adding Auston Matthews and Fredrik Anderson will help. They won't be great but I don't think it's a guarantee that they'll be worse than us.

With a key injury or two I could easily see the Canucks being the worst team in the NHL. I'm fairly confident they'll be the worst team in the West.
 

coastal_nuck

Registered User
Jun 28, 2006
1,284
217
My prediction is no. And I certainly hope we fall completely flat this year. We need whatever we can to get it through these thick heads that a rebuild is necessary.
 

coldsteel79

Registered User
Sep 28, 2015
1,967
70
sask
People are really underestimating the accuracy of Vegas house. The guys/gals who create those odds are absolute sharks... they don't screw up. Canucks are literally LAST... we have the worst odds out of any team in the league at winning the cup, which would require making the playoffs.
Time to make some bets then
 

PM

Glass not 1/2 full
Apr 8, 2014
9,869
1,664
People are really underestimating the accuracy of Vegas house. The guys/gals who create those odds are absolute sharks... they don't screw up. Canucks are literally LAST... we have the worst odds out of any team in the league at winning the cup, which would require making the playoffs.

Pfft get your fancy math stats out of here. I only bet on the eye test gut feel betting sites.
 

Jimson Hogarth*

Registered User
Nov 21, 2013
12,858
3
I think it's likely they finish somewhere between 13th and 27th overall. It's a tight league- a few wins against certain teams could put you right in the playoff race. On the other hand a few losses to those same teams could mean another bottom 6 finish.
 

VanillaCoke

Registered User
Oct 30, 2013
25,459
11,923
Sadly enough if we'd kept hammer and ditched Luca somehow wed be alot closer to the playoffs.
 

xtra

Registered User
May 19, 2002
8,323
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well im just going to point out that Vrbata shot at 6.5% which if he had shot at his career average he would have had 18 goals.

Now if Loui erikson shot at his 13.5% career average instead of the inflated 16.9% he did he would have had 25 goals. So basically we gained 7 goals over 82 games and people think that we have drastically improved.

Im going to go with we miss the playoffs big time probably bottom 3 in the league with Willie as the head coach.

If by chance Willie gets fired mid way through I can see us surging to 8th last in the league with competent coaching
 

ginner classic

Dammit Jim!
Mar 4, 2002
10,637
936
Douglas Park
I'd give us about a 10% chance to make the playoffs. We ended the year last in fancy stats and are starting the year 29th in the ESPN power rankings. Even if you squint think we are better than the rest of the world does, and we stay healthy, we still won't be climbing over the pile of teams ahead of us.

I think we finish 12th in the west and 23rd overall as long as we stay relatively injury free. The top teams in the west are weaker than last year but the bottom teams got a whole bunch better.

WEST
Anaheim
Nashville
Chicago
Dallas
San Jose
LA
Minnesota
St Louis
--------------
Winnipeg
Calgary
Edmonton
Vancouver
Colorado
Arizona
 

Proto

Registered User
Jan 30, 2010
11,523
1
Yep. I think that's actually a pretty good spot for us to be in right now. If the kids don't show well -we're toast. And that means we likely need the top end pick. If they do show well, it'll be a good sign going forward and we can likely wait until the twins bow out to start bottoming out again.

It's incredible that anyone thinks a "good sign going forward" would be to tank again in 2-4 years. I have yet to see someone "lean in" to the Oilers/Flames extended tank as a good thing like this? :amazed:
 
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