Speculation: Will The Canucks Make The Playoffs? | Warning Post #86

[dwarf]

We are one goalie injury away from being a lottery team again. If any of the Sedins get hurt same thing.

Personally I am hoping for the stealth tank and a top 5 pick again. The club has to sell hope because we are not selling out when we are not winning. If we support the team when they are rebuilding and are vocal about it, maybe eventually they will do a proper tear down and rebuild.

I think this is far more probable than sneaking into 8th.

 

[y2kcanucks]

It's funny that people say this because I feel like many on HFVAN are incredibly pessimistic. Easy to be a negative nancy and say the team will suck based on last year, but there are arguments to suggest that the Canucks will not come 3rd last.

Teams we can beat:
Leafs are still going through the rebuild phase.
Edmonton still doesn't have a solid defense which will continue to be their downfall.
Columbus did not add anyone out of note and lost Tyutin.
Winnipeg lost Ladd last year but gained Laine this year - wash at best
Colorado has not done that much to improve their roster
Buffalo still needs a legitimate #1 goalie - Johnson is on Calgary
Boston is also one team I think will fall a lot - lots of overachieving players from last year

I think we can finish outside of the top 5 for sure with this roster, and that's assuming there is limited growth from the younger players on our team.

All those teams, except maybe Toronto, are better than the Canucks. That's not being overly pessimistic, that's being realistic.

Edmonton still could use another defenseman, but adding Larson and a full year of McDavid will help them.

Laine is not a wash on Ladd. Laine has a lot more talent and will bring more offense than Ladd brought last year. Ladd has him on leadership though. They also will be adding Kyle Connor to their offense. If they go with Hellebyuck in net they'll be fine.

Columbus is a solid team that really should be a lot better than they have been, with the talent they have. Ditto for Colorado. The talent on both these teams far surpasses Vancouver.

Buffalo, without their "legitimate number 1 goalie" was better than Vancouver last year. Adding Okposo, and more experience for Reinhart and Eichel and they'll be better than us.

Boston could be a bad team, but I think they're still better than us. Nonetheless, their fans shouldn't be happy with how their team has been built.

 

[y2kcanucks]

We are one goalie injury away from being a lottery team again. If any of the Sedins get hurt same thing.

Personally I am hoping for the stealth tank and a top 5 pick again. The club has to sell hope because we are not selling out when we are not winning. If we support the team when they are rebuilding and are vocal about it, maybe eventually they will do a proper tear down and rebuild.

I think this is far more probable than sneaking into 8th.

Finishing with a top 5 pick isn't a stealth tank, it's the result of an utter failure on management in building a hockey team when they're actually trying to win.

 

[MikeK]

It's funny that people say this because I feel like many on HFVAN are incredibly pessimistic. Easy to be a negative nancy and say the team will suck based on last year, but there are arguments to suggest that the Canucks will not come 3rd last.

Teams we can beat:
Leafs are still going through the rebuild phase.
Edmonton still doesn't have a solid defense which will continue to be their downfall.
Columbus did not add anyone out of note and lost Tyutin.
Winnipeg lost Ladd last year but gained Laine this year - wash at best
Colorado has not done that much to improve their roster
Buffalo still needs a legitimate #1 goalie - Johnson is on Calgary
Boston is also one team I think will fall a lot - lots of overachieving players from last year

I think we can finish outside of the top 5 for sure with this roster, and that's assuming there is limited growth from the younger players on our team.

We'll see. I don't see this team doing much at all. Injuries are always a factor with this team. Always. We are an injury or 2 away from last year.

 

[rypper]

Finishing with a top 5 pick isn't a stealth tank, it's the result of an utter failure on management in building a hockey team when they're actually trying to win.

I'm guessing he means stealth tank, much like this past season was a stealth tank. Where the tank was stealthy to every member of our management group, despite thier best efforts, we tanked anyways.

 

[Fat Tony]

It's funny that people say this because I feel like many on HFVAN are incredibly pessimistic. Easy to be a negative nancy and say the team will suck based on last year

Yet it was also easy to be pessimistic after the year before that.

I think we can finish outside of the top 5 for sure with this roster, and that's assuming there is limited growth from the younger players on our team.

Right in the dead zone. How is that an optimistic view?

 

[jimslob]

I think it's a lot more likely that the Canucks underperform relative to expectations than overachieve. A poor start and the team could be floundering and in lottery territory by Christmas. No doubt the coach-firing bullet will be used, but mid-season coaching changes almost never have a positive impact on a team's record. We'll see how badly things unravel in the second half of the season. If the club continues to play ****** veterans through garbage time instead of calling up young players and giving them solid looks, and if Benning somehow botches another TDL, I can't imagine how the management team makes it through next summer without changes.

LA hired Sutter mid season and won their first cup.
Pittsburgh changed coaches mid season and won the cup this year.

 

[kurt]

Copy/pasting my post from another thread:

------------

Well, it all depends on how you handicap Pacific Division teams.

Here's how I see it. Sorry, I don't know how to format tables so this might not be tidy.

Team (wins last year) >> upside/downside

Kings (48 wins) >> +3/-9
Sharks (46 wins) >> +5/-3
Ducks (46 wins) >> +4/-12
Coyotes (35 wins) >> +6/-3
Flames (35 wins) >> +7/-2
Canucks (31 wins) >> +8/-2
Oilers (31 wins) >> +12/-1

That's just a rough gut feel based on where rosters are now, but a lot can change. It also assumes teams stay healthy, which never happens. As you can see, I'm focusing on wins instead of points, to avoid and ignore the OT loss crapshoot of points. Given the above, if Canucks max their possible upside and the Ducks max their possible downside, the Canucks could sneak in. I think there could be an interesting race for that #3 spot. By no means am I saying the Canucks are the favourite to get it, in fact I think they probably have the lowest chance of getting it, but they could.

 

[PM]

Smith. Who knows what he will do.

He was outplayed by Domingue last year who got almost half the games, partially because Smith was injured. If he falters again I'm sure they will just stick to Domingue more.

 

[PM]

If a lengthy injury happens to a goalie, a Sedin or any of our four best defensemen we are in serious trouble (pizza man back in the top-4). It's likely at least two of the above happen given the annual fragility of our defense and the Sedins and Miller getting up there in age. Too much has to go right for us and too much has to go wrong for everyone else for us to even be a bubble team in my opinion. Playoffs are a pipe dream, it's not happening.

 

[Get North]

I think we can make the playoffs, it won't be easy, but if the PP clicks and the core group stay fairly healthy for the first half of the season then it's doable. It's not as simple as comparing this to the playoff team we had 2 seasons ago, but I think we match up similar with that team.

Vrbata had 63 points, I think Eriksson can match that but at least get 50 points. Horvat with 2 years experience>rookie Horvat. Hansen had a career year last season, if he keeps it up into next season then that's better than his 14/15 season. We're adding Gudbranson, Hutton, Tryamkin onto the defence replacing Bieksa, Hamhuis, Weber. Hopefully if Sutter stays healthy he can match Bonino's 39 points in 75 games.

I like this team more than the 14-15 team. Sedins are a little older, but guys like Virtanen and Rodin can really up their production IMO.

 

[y2kcanucks]

LA hired Sutter mid season and won their first cup.
Pittsburgh changed coaches mid season and won the cup this year.

Those were actually good hockey teams though. The Vancouver Canucks are without a doubt a bad hockey team.

 

[I in the Eye]

With luck on their side, next year's version of the canucks will miss the playoffs convincingly... With luck not on their side, next year's version of the canucks will miss the playoffs spectacularly...

My prediction, the canucks miss the playoffs next season somewhere between convincingly and spectacularly...

 

[SillyRabbit]

Making the playoffs next year would be a huge disappointment.

We are a team on the downswing, not the upswing. Aiming for the playoffs is a waste of a season. We need high and numerous draft picks, not to get eliminated in the first round.

It's not like we have a young foundation of rookies/ELC players who could use some playoff experience. We are in the complete opposite boat.

 

[ProstheticConscience]

IF (big, big if. You all saw it):

--rookies continue improving enough to make a real contribution
--our d gets better with Gudbranson being better than Bartkowski and/or Weber (and I know his numbers aren't great but seriously, how the hell can he be worse than either of them), Hutton taking a step up with more reliable help, and a full season of Tryamkin around
--Eriksson meshes with the Sedins and that line stays a bonafide NHL first line
--the goalies continue to hold the fort
--injuries don't cripple us,

then...

I can easily see this team improving just enough to miss the playoffs in the last week or two of the season, right after Benning either traded draft picks and/or a couple of our very, very few young decent prospects for a rental, or just stood pat at the trade deadline.

 

[me2]

Finishing with a top 5 pick isn't a stealth tank, it's the result of an utter failure on management in building a hockey team when they're actually trying to win.

Sure not the true sense of stealth tank but stealthy because managment didn't see it coming.

 

[mathonwy]

We are one goalie injury away from being a lottery team again. If any of the Sedins get hurt same thing.

Personally I am hoping for the stealth tank and a top 5 pick again. The club has to sell hope because we are not selling out when we are not winning. If we support the team when they are rebuilding and are vocal about it, maybe eventually they will do a proper tear down and rebuild.

I think this is far more probable than sneaking into 8th.

The only way I can support a stealth tank is if we go down swinging.

The games that were played after this past season's TDL were terrible and unwatchable. Every game that I saw the Sedins mailing it in I died a little bit on the inside.

On the flip side....

If the team just starts bagging it from the get go by reeling off 10 straight losses then WD will definitely get the axe and that's a good thing.

Hmm...

 

[Bougieman]

I really don't think this is a bottom five team like a lot of people are saying, but I think even less likely is a trip to the playoffs. More likely middle of the pack of the teams that don't make it.

There are just way too many things that have to go flawlessly for the Canucks to make it. And things never go flawlessly for us. You guys know that.

 

[Bougieman]

And can we take it easy with all the "tank" obsessing this upcoming season, please? Even if we finish dead last, Canucks luck dictates that we're losing the lottery, so stop pointlessly praying for losses around here all the time. It makes this board really depressing to visit.

 

[Fat Tony]

And can we take it easy with all the "tank" obsessing this upcoming season, please? Even if we finish dead last, Canucks luck dictates that we're losing the lottery, so stop pointlessly praying for losses around here all the time. It makes this board really depressing to visit.

Losing the lottery at 30th overall is a lot different than losing it at 17th.

 

[brokenhole]

LA hired Sutter mid season and won their first cup.
Pittsburgh changed coaches mid season and won the cup this year.

The Canuck's don't have anything that remotely resembles those teams. L.A. just ground down teams with size and a d-man who could play 30 minutes a night without breaking a sweat as well as a healthy d-corps. The also had Quick who went all superman that playoff. Pits had twice the speed of the Canucks on all lines as well as Crosby, Malkin, Letang, Kessel as well as a goalie that went all world. Coaching change might get the Canucks the 24th pick but probably the 12-15th...purgatory.

 

[NYVanfan]

I don't think we should overlook this, with all the reveling in how awful the canucks were last year

big circle = more important players
only Edm worse overall

 

[Win One Before I Die]

I think if they put Virtanen in the AHL and now that McCann is gone, we can actually get some vets in there. These guy were not ready last year, and management accepted it would be a **** season so there they were.

With a Gudbranson on defense and hoping we get less injuries, we will fight for a wild card spot.

Look for Markstrom to have a big year.

 

[mathonwy]

Losing the lottery at 30th overall is a lot different than losing it at 17th.

Cheering for a tank at game 1 is a lot different than cheering for a tank at game 70.

 

[Fat Tony]

Cheering for a tank at game 1 is a lot different than cheering for a tank at game 70.

In terms of outcome? Not even in the slightest.