I think you're just caught up in semantics then. When people like Dekes and I are trying to argue who the best goal scorer in the league is, ability is the whole story. To us, the best goal scorer in the league is the one with the best goal scoring ability. That's it.
We say in our opinion that Matthews is the best goal scorer in the league, and as such is bound to win multiple rockets in his career. We make a distinction between who wins the rocket in a given year, and who might have the best goal scoring ability, because those objectively have different definitions. Ability is just ability and statistically is currently best approximated using 5v5 g/60 and PP g/60 when there is sufficient sample available to eliminate variance. Rocket is a combination of ability and usage, which like you said a player that has great ability to score tends to be used in situations that allow them to use that ability the most, but there are factors that materially contribute to power play time specifically are out of the hands of the player. Thus, material aspects of winning the rocket are in fact out of the hands of the player, which doesn't say anything about their ability.
You guys are arguing two different things.
If the ability is not enough to overcome the external aspects, how can you assert that the player is "bound" to win multiple rockets? The rocket isn't just about ability and usage of the player, it's also about the same factors for all players in the race.
McDavid is a good example of this when considering the Art Ross. Most people would agree that he is the best producer in the league based on ability. However, when he won two in a row, one could surmise that he would be "bound" to win multiple more. The next three years showed that his ability was not enough to overcome the field, so we must also conclude that while he may still win multiple more, he may also never win another one. Talking only about usage is too simplified, because McDavids usage really hasn't changed, he gets monster PP time, monster ES time. His opportunity is the same.
What is being argued is a false premise, because even if Matthews usage changes, it is no guarantee the usage of field will not also change. Since the poll is not asking who is the best goal scorer, I don't see the relevance that ability has in the discussion. Stats didn't predict Draisaitl last year, just as they didn't predict Kucherov the year before. In my mind, Matthews is not the best by ability (still OV), and the difference between him and everyone not named OV, is not enough to take him over the field. I flipped a coin and picked the 22/23 season, for the same reason you think he can win multiple, but "bound" is too strong a word. I think he will win at least one, but that cannot be substantiated by anything since we cannot quantify the factors outside of his or any players control.
It's a totally different discussion about who is the best by ability, but not really that relevant to the poll.
EDIT - your other post to me:
Not 6 minutes because the league hands out half the number of penalties than they did in those days. He doesn't need 6 minutes per game though to win the rocket. If he gets into top-20 overall in PP time in the league (he was 35th last season) and stays in the top-10 in overall 5v5 ice time (he was 3rd in the league last season) he's pretty much a lock for the rocket imo.
Matthews was on the ice for 70% of Leafs' PP time last season (most on the team) but the team as a whole again was bottom of the league in PP time (26th). If Leafs change their game style to one where game management will dish more special teams, then that'll be enough. Keefe's Marlies teams were in the top of the league in special teams as well, and has shown he is not afraid to stack Matthews' time on the PP, so that's why I think he wins the rocket this upcoming season.
Banking on them predicting the Refs game managing tactics seems fruitless, to say the least. Reffing is also not the same in the AHL as the NHL, since you inherently have much worse players who take more liberties due to the general skill in the league. Keefe not a vindictive ahole, like Babcock was, so that's a point in his favour for usage.
I don't think your wrong to pick next year, I don't think anyone is really wrong for any option, it's a huge crap shoot that can't be predicted.