Quality of goal-scorer is an important consideration when projecting rockets. I also discussed the specific situations that would impact raw totals next year in another one of my posts.
Why would he get 6 minutes of PP time? Nobody gets 6 minutes of PP time anymore. I expect him to get more than he's gotten so far.
He isn't going to get 6 minutes, which was my point. Thus it was an irrelevant for that poster to bring it up.
It really isn't. Jamie Benn has won an Art Ross and Jonathan Cheechoo has won a rocket, few people would probably cite them as top-5 quality players. Projecting a players scoring doesn't really help you project rockets outright, unless you just assume everything else remains equal for all the other players in the league. That method should be reserved for University economics courses. We can discuss the specific situations that resolved for OV to score 65 goals, or Kucherov to score 128 points, but it doesn't mean it's repeatable. Due to his ability Matthews should get above average scoring placements which will increase his chances of getting a rocket, but it doesn't mean you can project how many rockets or what year he will win them. I could outline some specific situations for Laine to score 60 goals, but what does that prove?
No different than the McDavid argument I posed to that other poster who was too lazy to read my post. McDavid has been consistently 1/2 over the last four years in PPG, and has only two Art Ross, he could never win another one, and his usage really doesn't change. I was in many threads where Matthews and McDavids usage was discussed, same with Draisaitl vs Matthews. People always like to argue, if this guy scores at X pace, and you give him +4 minutes of TOI - "look at this linear rise in production". You can't assert that. As soon as you change the situations in which that data was generated, it's no longer valid in the new environment. If Matthews has 18 minutes TOI for 3 seasons, and produces at the stats you show, it's created in that environment. When you change the environment by a significant margin (+20-30%), how are those stats at all relevant to future outcomes?
Nadal is the king of Roland Garros (clay surface), he didn't even lose a single set in the most recent tournament, and has tournament winning streaks of 4, 4, 5 (so he has won the tournament 13 times). If he won hard courts like he wins Roland, he would be the Wayne Gretzky of Tennis.
I do find it funny that "he will never win" is leading with 33.7% of the votes. For sure it is a possibility, but the most likely one? Doesn't seem accurate. It will always be a difficult feat going against every other player in the NHL, but with the goal scoring promise Matthews has shown in his first four seasons, I can't see him retiring without a Rocket, barring major injury issues.
It could be as early as this upcoming season for sure. His 47 goals last season were literally only one back of the title shared by Ovechkin & Pastrnak. His 1.92 G/60 last season (all-situations) was 4th in the NHL behind those two + Zibanejad.
With a full season of getting more minutes (which started to happen under Keefe), there's no reason to think he won't be in the mix. He went from playing ~18:00 per game under Babcock, to playing ~21:00 per game under Keefe. He's was only 22 years old last season, and most players don't peak until 24-25, so I imagine he will continue to improve still somewhat. In the last three seasons total, only Ovechkin (1.87) has outscored Matthews (1.84) at an hourly rate in all situations, and Ovechkin isn't getting any younger.
With the NHL's schedule likely shortened, Pastrnak out with injury (his biggest competition potentially missing a few games to start the season), and his propensity for starting the season scorching hot...absolutely he could win the Rocket in 20/21. If not, I'm pretty sure he'll finish his career with at least one eventually, especially now that he's getting the minutes he deserves.
Honestly people need to stop leaning on this strawman.
"Will never win" as the top poll option is an illusion....
Will never win = 34.2%
Will win = 65.8%.
When you have 6 options that relate to him winning, but at different times, then it shouldn't' be a surprise the only option contrary to that has more votes on it's own - since it consolidates all opposing views. If you actually look at the options as binary, then him winning a rocket has been chosen the most, people just disagree about when.
So many posters are arguing against phantom Matthews hate. The majority of voters agree with you he will finish with at least one rocket.
