When will Matthews win his first Rocket?

[Dekes For Days]

Less special-teams dependent or they just can’t draw calls?

Less special teams dependent. A team like Toronto gets less PPs and takes less penalties. Matthews draws way more calls than he takes, unlike somebody like Ovechkin, yet doesn't get the same time to pad his stats. Essentially what you're doing by only looking at raw totals is rewarding somebody like Ovechkin for taking penalties.

It’s ludicrous to say that one team is less dependent on special teams because every team would love to have the chance to go on the PP as much as they would.

Teams like going on the PP. Teams don't like being on the PK. Both PP and PK opportunities correlate together in the NHL. A team that gets more PP time doesn't necessarily get any positive team impact from that when they are getting more PK time as well. That's why it's more important to produce at a good rate. You can't just rely on getting a bunch more PPs than everybody. Your need to produce at a better rate than the other team does when they get their PP opportunities.

PP is such an important aspect of the game especially when playoff time arrives and the whistles are held.

What I just mentioned is only amplified in the playoffs, when the opportunities may be more rare and/or even more even over a series. There aren't unlimited chances. There isn't unlimited time. Your opponent is likely getting an equal chance. A player who gets higher raw PP totals solely as a result of PP time is not a better option there to benefit your team than somebody who produces better relative to the minutes they get.

 

[canuckking1]

Goal scoring is talent and imo needs to be proven over a body of work, not just a single season. if someone is producing better 5v5 g/60 and PP g/60 over a body of like 3+ seasons then absolutely imo that player will be a better goal scorer than any rocket winner in a year who happened to have shit tons of PP time that year.

Yes the guy who's won the last 3 goal-scoring titles doesn't have the body of work

 

[Varan]

Yes the guy who's won the last 3 goal-scoring titles doesn't have the body of work

I’m crying LMAO

 

[Iapyi]

I mean, sure. But Draisaitl is a 50 goal scorer, something Matthews has never done yet. The rocket is a tough trophy to get so while I am sure Auston will be a contender, I don’t think he will EVER win it.

YEAH!! I mean if he hasn't won one by now, he already turned 23 over a month ago, how would anyone EVER expect he will EVER win one now. Best deduction EVER!!!!

 

[BoredBrandonPridham]

Yes the guy who's won the last 3 goal-scoring titles doesn't have the body of work

that post is more about conflating pp and 5v5 scoring. the reason body of work is mentioned is because scoring rates need to be taken with sufficient sample.

 

[Dache]

I explained this in the following post in the discussion. They are the same principles.

Stop leaving out parts of my post that are relevant to my point. You’ve been told not to do this many times already. Missing games entirely and the ppg associated with that is not the same principal as p60, I’ve seen you argue against ppg vs p60 many times

 

[Dache]

The fact that there are 80 votes to him never winning just shows how terrible this website is lol.

80 people out all of the people on this website is a very small number. There are probably 80 outspoken leaf fans that everyone is told to ignore cause they’re not speaking for all leaf fans. Also, just because someone votes he won’t win a rocket doesn’t mean they’re saying he’s a bad goal scorer in any way. Maybe they feel he’ll have injuries, or just feel his competition is so good they’re not convinced he’ll win one. It’s not always about hating on the leafs.

 

[Dache]

The issue is that players are being penalized for the PP, not because they are "not good on it", but solely because their team is less special-teams dependent, and they don't get to pad their stats with it, for reasons that have nothing to do with their individual player quality. Your evaluation of who is "good" at the PP, and how good, is entirely based on one stat that is heavily skewed by TOI impacts.

You whole view on who is good on it is also entirely based on one stat. So what’s your point?

 

[Dekes For Days]

Missing games entirely and the ppg associated with that is not the same principal as p60

It is the same principle. Post #176 goes more in-depth if you're interested.

You whole view on who is good on it is also entirely based on one stat.

Not only is that not true, but the stats I use acknowledge the TOI impacts that heavily skew raw PP totals.

 

[Dache]

YEAH!! I mean if he hasn't won one by now, he already turned 23 over a month ago, how would anyone EVER expect he will EVER win one now. Best deduction EVER!!!!

Why are you making up things that this poster didn’t say? He never made any claim about age, yet you bring that up and don’t address any of the points he did bring up.

 

[Dache]

Less special teams dependent. A team like Toronto gets less PPs and takes less penalties.

Then I guess Matthews gets an advantage by not having to pk because there aren’t many times his team has to pk, and he gets more chances at es than other players.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Then I guess Matthews gets an advantage by not having to pk because there aren’t many times his team has to pk,
and he gets more chances at es than other players.

Most superstars have limited PK time regardless, and see much less impact in that than the PP. Less special teams time for a team doesn't necessarily mean more ES time for an individual, but it sounds like you made a great argument in favour of looking at per-60 metrics and considering TOI impacts!

 

[Dache]

Most superstars have limited PK time regardless, and see much less impact in that than the PP. Less special teams time for a team doesn't necessarily mean more ES time for an individual, but it sounds like you made a great argument in favour of looking at per-60 metrics and considering TOI impacts!

No actually, what I’m saying is there are way more variables than you’re counting with just flat p60 stats. You claim they have more context, but in reality they have far less. No individual stat has all the context you claim. They’re all flawed in their own way, that’s why you don’t win with the games by having the best p60, or the best xgf, or high danger scoring opportunities, they all help sure but that’s not what wins the game. Real goals, that are actually scored. Raw totals that you hate so much are what actually count.

 

[dubey]

He will win this upcoming season

 

[KrisLetAngry]

I don't have a shoe in this race but some of these posts are something special.

I expect Matthews to get a rocket or 2 during his career.

Thing about it though is even if you are one of the best goal scorers other players get hot and all they need to do is score 1 more than you.

Matthews is a top 10 C in the league
Some cases could be made as a 5.

driastl did score 50 goals and got hot. To be honest I can see Driastl

 

[Dekes For Days]

You claim they have more context, but in reality they have far less.

No, that is false. It inherently acknowledges TOI impacts, which is critical context that raw totals do not include.

Real goals, that are actually scored.

Per 60 production metrics are 100% based on real goals that are actually scored. It's just a way of looking at it that more accurately represents individual production ability.

 

[Dache]

For the last time. Stop removing portions of my posts that are relevant to my point

No, that is false. It inherently acknowledges TOI impacts, which is critical context that raw totals do not include.

What portions of the game do raw totals not include. They are the entire game, every minute of every game is included in raw totals, unlike your selected portions of p60

Per 60 production metrics are 100% based on real goals that are actually scored. It's just a way of looking at it that more accurately represents individual production ability.

Yes. They are based on real goals, similar to how some movies are based on real events. They have relevant information but should not be taken as the be all end all for information on that topic.

 

[Iapyi]

Why are you making up things that this poster didn’t say? He never made any claim about age, yet you bring that up and don’t address any of the points he did bring up.

lol. Take a breathe grasshopper, your natural angst is showing through again. If you can't see the obvious co-relation to age based on what he said I can't help you. [nor would I waste my time trying to anyway as your posting historys clear cut bias is quite transparent]

 

[Dache]

lol. Take a breathe grasshopper, your natural angst is showing through again. If you can't see the obvious co-relation to age based on what he said I can't help you. [nor would I waste my time trying to anyway as your posting historys clear cut bias is quite transparent]

Oh god. Do you ever have a post that isn’t condescending? I have no angst towards you. If anything it’s just just a feeling of sadness that you have the limited opinions that you do.

 

[Dekes For Days]

What portions of the game do raw totals not include.

It does not include the context of TOI information, which can skew raw totals for individuals significantly.

They are the entire game, every minute of every game is included in raw totals, unlike your selected portions of p60

Every minute of every game is represented in P/60 as well.

Yes. They are based on real goals, similar to how some movies are based on real events.

No, they are based on real goals, just like raw totals. They both use the exact same goal information; per-60 measures just include additional information that is important for accurate evaluations.

 

[Iapyi]

Oh god. Do you ever have a post that isn’t condescending? I have no angst towards you. If anything it’s just just a feeling of sadness that you have the limited opinions that you do.

lol. What a weak attempt at deflection. Here is the post I quoted :

I mean, sure. But Draisaitl is a 50 goal scorer, something Matthews has never done yet. The rocket is a tough trophy to get so while I am sure Auston will be a contender, I don’t think he will ever win it.

Try to explain exactly what point I missed out on. LOL LOL LLOL LOL

 

[Oilers Propagandist]

YEAH!! I mean if he hasn't won one by now, he already turned 23 over a month ago, how would anyone EVER expect he will EVER win one now. Best deduction EVER!!!!

Agree mate, glad we’re on the same page.

 

[Dache]

lol. What a weak attempt at deflection. Here is the post I quoted :



Try to explain exactly what point I missed out on. LOL LOL LLOL LOL

You missed every point that poster made and turned the whole post into something about age, something it never was. Then when you get called out on it you turn to insults. Which looking at YOUR post history, is actually something common unlike this bias or hate that you always claim of me yet can never substantiate

 

[Rants Mulliniks]

80 people out all of the people on this website is a very small number. There are probably 80 outspoken leaf fans that everyone is told to ignore cause they’re not speaking for all leaf fans. Also, just because someone votes he won’t win a rocket doesn’t mean they’re saying he’s a bad goal scorer in any way. Maybe they feel he’ll have injuries, or just feel his competition is so good they’re not convinced he’ll win one. It’s not always about hating on the leafs.

Not everyone on the website voted which makes it a moot point as a denominator. You can pretend it doesn't exist but all you need to to is go back to the polls where 75% voted Marner is a 4th liner or even remark how there is zero threads on Barzal being RFA yet were over 20 complete threads when Nylander was. Like it or lump it, Leafs are in everyone's heads (despite the complaints not wanting to see it).

 

[Dache]

It does not include the context of TOI information, which can skew raw totals for individuals significantly.

Nothing is “skewed” they are the actual total, what has been actually scored for the entirety of the game. What skews things is taking portions of that are trying to prorate it over the course of the entire game.

Every minute of every game is represented in P/60 as well.

Yes, if you include all aspects of the game. You unfortunately do not, and again you try to prorate the portions that you do count to equate to a whole game

No, they are based on real goals, just like raw totals. They both use the exact same goal information; per-60 measures just include additional information that is important for accurate evaluations.

False. They leave out many external factors that you have been shown countless times. If they were more accurate as you claim then that would be how games are decided or at the very least they would be an iron clad prediction of the outcome. Yet someone over and over again they are not.