When will Matthews win his first Rocket?

[Varan]

Stop leaving out parts of my post that are relevant to my point. You’ve been told not to do this many times already. Missing games entirely and the ppg associated with that is not the same principal as p60, I’ve seen you argue against ppg vs p60 many times

He did the same with my posts. Left out 2 key parts (one which he already did in another thread)

 

[Dache]

Not everyone on the website voted which makes it a moot point as a denominator. You can pretend it doesn't exist but all you need to to is go back to the polls where 75% voted Marner is a 4th liner or even remark how there is zero threads on Barzal being RFA yet were over 20 complete threads when Nylander was. Like it or lump it, Leafs are in everyone's heads (despite the complaints not wanting to see it).

Marner was on the 4th line for a time being so I don’t understand how that’s any indication of anything? And you’re going to point to leaf hate for why the Nylander threads are longer than Barzal? There are just as many if not more posts in those threads pumping Nylander and the leafs in general. So maybe it’s a leaf bias thing? Also Barzal isn’t coming down to the last possible second, nor is the New York media pumping the scenario out on Sportsnet or TSN constantly. You’re taking every single scenario and looking for reasons as to why it can be an anti leaf thing when it’s not

 

[Dache]

He did the same with my posts. Left out 2 key parts (one which he already did in another thread)

He does it constantly.

 

[Varan]

He does it constantly.

It’s annoying and hypocritical when you want to have a “discussion”

 

[Dekes For Days]

Nothing is “skewed”

Yes, raw totals are skewed by TOI impacts, and as a result, are not representative of production ability.

Yes, if you include all aspects of the game. You unfortunately do not, and again you try to prorate the portions that you do count to equate to a whole game

Every minute of every game is represented when using P/60 as well; it is no different.

They leave out many external factors that you have been shown countless times.

It includes all external factors that raw totals do, as well as the critical external factor of TOI impacts, that is not considered in raw totals.

 

[Dache]

Yes, raw totals are skewed by TOI impacts, and as a result, are not representative of production ability.

No one is arguing Matthews ability. I’ve never seen a single post on here say he doesn’t have the ability to win a rocket. Unfortunately ability isn’t the whole story

Every minute of every game is represented when using P/60 as well; it is no different.

Again, yes p60 can include every minute. However you do not include all of these minutes and more so prorate other to try to push the outcome

It includes all external factors that raw totals do, as well as the critical external factor of TOI impacts, that is not considered in raw totals.

Really? All external factors? It includes fatigue? Injuries? No it excludes them and assumes that the don’t exist or that they are equal for everyone when that is not reality

 

[Dekes For Days]

Unfortunately ability isn’t the whole story

No, ability is not the whole story for the purposes of this thread, but ability is the first step, and per-60 measures are a more accurate representation of ability than raw totals. I have addressed the factors aside from ability relevant to this thread, and have already referenced you to that post of mine.

Again, yes p60 can include every minute. However you do not include all of these minutes

Yes, I do include all minutes.

Really? All external factors? It includes fatigue? Injuries?

They are not factors that are represented in raw totals, though they are factors that I have addressed and discussed in evaluations when it is relevant.

 

[BoredBrandonPridham]

Unfortunately ability isn’t the whole story

I think you're just caught up in semantics then. When people like Dekes and I are trying to argue who the best goal scorer in the league is, ability is the whole story. To us, the best goal scorer in the league is the one with the best goal scoring ability. That's it.

We say in our opinion that Matthews is the best goal scorer in the league, and as such is bound to win multiple rockets in his career. We make a distinction between who wins the rocket in a given year, and who might have the best goal scoring ability, because those objectively have different definitions. Ability is just ability and statistically is currently best approximated using 5v5 g/60 and PP g/60 when there is sufficient sample available to eliminate variance. Rocket is a combination of ability and usage, which like you said a player that has great ability to score tends to be used in situations that allow them to use that ability the most, but there are factors that materially contribute to power play time specifically are out of the hands of the player. Thus, material aspects of winning the rocket are in fact out of the hands of the player, which doesn't say anything about their ability.

You guys are arguing two different things.

 

[North Cole]

Yeah, it's pretty comical that some still stick to raw goals for their conclusions when we see discrepancies like this:

PP TOI/GP, first 4 seasons of career

Kovalchuk: 6:05
Ovechkin: 5:49
Matthews: 2:36

Literally less than half.

That makes Matthews a better "goalscorer" by rates comparison, but doesn't have much to do with the rocket question. Those guys were one man armies in their first four years. The first two/three years a coach like Bab isn't gonna play him over the vets on the PP and those two guys likely would have had the same issue. But in the coming years, do you expect to see Matthews getting 6 minutes of powerplay time?

The Trashers had literally no one else on their PP who score goals near Kovy, and Washington had the best goal scorer of all time. Toronto has options, so that will always reduce his ice time. That's before even mentioning how many PPO teams got post lockout.

 

[BoredBrandonPridham]

But in the coming years, do you expect to see Matthews getting 6 minutes of powerplay time?

Not 6 minutes because the league hands out half the number of penalties than they did in those days. He doesn't need 6 minutes per game though to win the rocket. If he gets into top-20 overall in PP time in the league (he was 35th last season) and stays in the top-10 in overall 5v5 ice time (he was 3rd in the league last season) he's pretty much a lock for the rocket imo.

Matthews was on the ice for 70% of Leafs' PP time last season (most on the team) but the team as a whole again was bottom of the league in PP time (26th). If Leafs change their game style to one where game management will dish more special teams, then that'll be enough. Keefe's Marlies teams were in the top of the league in special teams as well, and has shown he is not afraid to stack Matthews' time on the PP, so that's why I think he wins the rocket this upcoming season.

 

[North Cole]

I think you're just caught up in semantics then. When people like Dekes and I are trying to argue who the best goal scorer in the league is, ability is the whole story. To us, the best goal scorer in the league is the one with the best goal scoring ability. That's it.

We say in our opinion that Matthews is the best goal scorer in the league, and as such is bound to win multiple rockets in his career. We make a distinction between who wins the rocket in a given year, and who might have the best goal scoring ability, because those objectively have different definitions. Ability is just ability and statistically is currently best approximated using 5v5 g/60 and PP g/60 when there is sufficient sample available to eliminate variance. Rocket is a combination of ability and usage, which like you said a player that has great ability to score tends to be used in situations that allow them to use that ability the most, but there are factors that materially contribute to power play time specifically are out of the hands of the player. Thus, material aspects of winning the rocket are in fact out of the hands of the player, which doesn't say anything about their ability.

You guys are arguing two different things.

If the ability is not enough to overcome the external aspects, how can you assert that the player is "bound" to win multiple rockets? The rocket isn't just about ability and usage of the player, it's also about the same factors for all players in the race.

McDavid is a good example of this when considering the Art Ross. Most people would agree that he is the best producer in the league based on ability. However, when he won two in a row, one could surmise that he would be "bound" to win multiple more. The next three years showed that his ability was not enough to overcome the field, so we must also conclude that while he may still win multiple more, he may also never win another one. Talking only about usage is too simplified, because McDavids usage really hasn't changed, he gets monster PP time, monster ES time. His opportunity is the same.

What is being argued is a false premise, because even if Matthews usage changes, it is no guarantee the usage of field will not also change. Since the poll is not asking who is the best goal scorer, I don't see the relevance that ability has in the discussion. Stats didn't predict Draisaitl last year, just as they didn't predict Kucherov the year before. In my mind, Matthews is not the best by ability (still OV), and the difference between him and everyone not named OV, is not enough to take him over the field. I flipped a coin and picked the 22/23 season, for the same reason you think he can win multiple, but "bound" is too strong a word. I think he will win at least one, but that cannot be substantiated by anything since we cannot quantify the factors outside of his or any players control.

It's a totally different discussion about who is the best by ability, but not really that relevant to the poll.

EDIT - your other post to me:

Not 6 minutes because the league hands out half the number of penalties than they did in those days. He doesn't need 6 minutes per game though to win the rocket. If he gets into top-20 overall in PP time in the league (he was 35th last season) and stays in the top-10 in overall 5v5 ice time (he was 3rd in the league last season) he's pretty much a lock for the rocket imo.

Matthews was on the ice for 70% of Leafs' PP time last season (most on the team) but the team as a whole again was bottom of the league in PP time (26th). If Leafs change their game style to one where game management will dish more special teams, then that'll be enough. Keefe's Marlies teams were in the top of the league in special teams as well, and has shown he is not afraid to stack Matthews' time on the PP, so that's why I think he wins the rocket this upcoming season.

Banking on them predicting the Refs game managing tactics seems fruitless, to say the least. Reffing is also not the same in the AHL as the NHL, since you inherently have much worse players who take more liberties due to the general skill in the league. Keefe not a vindictive ahole, like Babcock was, so that's a point in his favour for usage.

I don't think your wrong to pick next year, I don't think anyone is really wrong for any option, it's a huge crap shoot that can't be predicted.

 

[BoredBrandonPridham]

If the ability is not enough to overcome the external aspects, how can you assert that the player is "bound" to win multiple rockets? The rocket isn't just about ability and usage of the player, it's also about the same factors for all players in the race.

McDavid is a good example of this when considering the Art Ross. Most people would agree that he is the best producer in the league based on ability. However, when he won two in a row, one could surmise that he would be "bound" to win multiple more. The next three years showed that his ability was not enough to overcome the field, so we must also conclude that while he may still win multiple more, he may also never win another one. Talking only about usage is too simplified, because McDavids usage really hasn't changed, he gets monster PP time, monster ES time. His opportunity is the same.

What is being argued is a false premise, because even if Matthews usage changes, it is no guarantee the usage of field will not also change. Since the poll is not asking who is the best goal scorer, I don't see the relevance that ability has in the discussion. Stats didn't predict Draisaitl last year, just as they didn't predict Kucherov the year before. In my mind, Matthews is not the best by ability (still OV), and the difference between him and everyone not named OV, is not enough to take him over the field. I flipped a coin and picked the 22/23 season, for the same reason you think he can win multiple, but "bound" is too strong a word. I think he will win at least one, but that cannot be substantiated by anything since we cannot quantify the factors outside of his or any players control.

It's a totally different discussion about who is the best by ability, but not really that relevant to the poll.

the thread is a poll, everyone you're talking with here has voted and have provided the reasons why we think matthews will win rocket(s). saying that the best scorers don't always win the rocket, or the best all around offensive players don't always win the art ross isn't a very interesting argument against that vote. of course anything could happen, big deal. matthews most likely wins rocket(s) which ever way you want to slice it. sorry if you said more than that, but i didn't really get through your full post because it didn't start out very interesting.

 

[Dache]

Yes, I do include all minutes.

False. You do not include all minutes.

They are not factors that are represented in raw totals, though they are factors that I have addressed and discussed in evaluations when it is relevant.

How is fatigue and injuries not represented in raw totals. If you get tired and come off the ice it preform poorly your raw totals are affected, if you get injured and can’t play your raw totals are affected. However if you get injured and cannot contribute to your team your p60 is not affected. So clearly it does not take into account all external factors as you claim.

 

[Dache]

I think you're just caught up in semantics then. When people like Dekes and I are trying to argue who the best goal scorer in the league is, ability is the whole story. To us, the best goal scorer in the league is the one with the best goal scoring ability. That's it.

Then you both should be arguing that McDavid is the best goal scorer, because if he gave up all other statistics and only tried to score goals. He has the ability to score the most. So then it’s irrelevant that he doesn’t actually have any stats to prove it, his ability shows that he could.

 

[Arthur Morgan]

wow majority vote is on He Never Will?
Is Matthews not one of the top natural goal scorers in the league?
OV should start to settle down a little I dunno if hes got many elite elite years left. I could see his goal totals start to lower a tiny bit but even if it doesnt I feel Matthews is close to on par with him
after that Pastrnak is around the top? I assume once Bergeron is gone or retires hes going to take a major production hit.

Matthews a 40 goal scorer when he was 18. appears to be over his injuries. I dunno how anyone cant expect him to win at least a Rocket in his career. who else is really a major challenge for the rocket?

 

[North Cole]

the thread is a poll, everyone you're talking with here has voted and have provided the reasons why we think matthews will win rocket(s). saying that the best scorers don't always win the rocket, or the best all around offensive players don't always win the art ross isn't a very interesting argument against that vote. of course anything could happen, big deal. matthews most likely wins rocket(s) which ever way you want to slice it. sorry if you said more than that, but i didn't really get through your full post because it didn't start out very interesting.

Selective reading, that's cute. You brought up "external factors" so not my fault if that avenue is boring. I could say the same about your post opening with - "this is a poll"...I voted in it, so I think that's obvious. I don't find the hot hand fallacy very interesting either, but here we are.

 

[Mickey Marner]

wow majority vote is on He Never Will?
Is Matthews not one of the top natural goal scorers in the league?
OV should start to settle down a little I dunno if hes got many elite elite years left. I could see his goal totals start to lower a tiny bit but even if it doesnt I feel Matthews is close to on par with him
after that Pastrnak is around the top? I assume once Bergeron is gone or retires hes going to take a major production hit.

Matthews a 40 goal scorer when he was 18. appears to be over his injuries. I dunno how anyone cant expect him to win at least a Rocket in his career. who else is really a major challenge for the rocket?

As of right now, the majority (65.9%) think he will, their votes are just distributed amongst six options.

 

[Arthur Morgan]

As of right now, the majority (65.9%) think he will, their votes are just distributed amongst six options.

fair enough lol but still crazy to think with his natural goal scoring that he wont win a rocket at some point in his career. guys only 22 years old.

 

[Dache]

fair enough lol but still crazy to think with his natural goal scoring that he wont win a rocket at some point in his career. guys only 22 years old.

23

 

[DowJones]

I have been reading this forum almost daily since 2009, and 2 of the things I learned after (way) too much time spent:

1. Always bet for the field. The field is a always a strong competitor. The field is never sick. The field never has a bad year. The field is never injured. The field always have a career year. The field always have a Joker card.

2. The exception to rule 1. is OV winning the rocket.

 

[Dekes For Days]

That makes Matthews a better "goalscorer" by rates comparison, but doesn't have much to do with the rocket question.

Quality of goal-scorer is an important consideration when projecting rockets. I also discussed the specific situations that would impact raw totals next year in another one of my posts.

But in the coming years, do you expect to see Matthews getting 6 minutes of powerplay time?

Why would he get 6 minutes of PP time? Nobody gets 6 minutes of PP time anymore. I expect him to get more than he's gotten so far.

 

[Dekes For Days]

You do not include all minutes.

Yes, I do include all minutes.

How is fatigue and injuries not represented in raw totals.

If you see a guy has 70 points, what does that tell you about his supposed fatigue level or injuries sustained?

Then you both should be arguing that McDavid is the best goal scorer, because if he gave up all other statistics and only tried to score goals. He has the ability to score the most.

McDavid has not shown the ability to score the most goals.

 

[Tage2Tuch]

Next season.

Matthews has scored more goals than any other player in the NHL since he started other than OV. He is by far the very best young goal scorer in the game today. The stats prove it, opinion means nothing. The #’s do not lie.

Yeah but the stat you just said means nothing as to why he'd win it next season or he would of already won one.

Its not based on the metric in your example, it's who has the most from this date to this day.

Many great goal scorers never win. I'm not saying he wont, I'm just saying he's not a lock like some are claiming, I think people have issue with the way some of these are titled. "When will he win his 1st" (As if it's a lock that he wins multiple)He very well could and probably will but its like that thread when the Leafs signed Tavares. (How many cups wll leafs win in next ten years) Win ONE fist. Here we are few years later and not even a round which is crazy coinsidering they've been a top ten team in those years.

So like that, with this, some have a Win ONE first mentalitty, then if it was asked how many more will he win and people would be far more receptive because as you say the numbers dont lie. That's where the disconnect seems to be. No one is disputing his ability to score goals but it has to be at the right time and considering he is facing literally every player in the league at the start of each season doesen't make him a lock in any year actually. I think he will win a couple. First being in 2 or 3 years.

 

[67Leafs67]

I do find it funny that "he will never win" is leading with 33.7% of the votes. For sure it is a possibility, but the most likely one? Doesn't seem accurate. It will always be a difficult feat going against every other player in the NHL, but with the goal scoring promise Matthews has shown in his first four seasons, I can't see him retiring without a Rocket, barring major injury issues.

It could be as early as this upcoming season for sure. His 47 goals last season were literally only one back of the title shared by Ovechkin & Pastrnak. His 1.92 G/60 last season (all-situations) was 4th in the NHL behind those two + Zibanejad.

With a full season of getting more minutes (which started to happen under Keefe), there's no reason to think he won't be in the mix. He went from playing ~18:00 per game under Babcock, to playing ~21:00 per game under Keefe. He's was only 22 years old last season, and most players don't peak until 24-25, so I imagine he will continue to improve still somewhat. In the last three seasons total, only Ovechkin (1.87) has outscored Matthews (1.84) at an hourly rate in all situations, and Ovechkin isn't getting any younger.

With the NHL's schedule likely shortened, Pastrnak out with injury (his biggest competition potentially missing a few games to start the season), and his propensity for starting the season scorching hot...absolutely he could win the Rocket in 20/21. If not, I'm pretty sure he'll finish his career with at least one eventually, especially now that he's getting the minutes he deserves.

 

[Dache]

Visit dictionary.com and look up "irony" as well as "hypocrisy ".

Visit dictionary.com and look up “condescending“ as well as “victim complex”