The Advanced Stats Thread Episode VI: RIP To Our Databases

[SnowblindNYR]

Wow, that was really interesting. The relative curves matched my expectations across sports. The NFL draft is very deep, the NBA draft like everything NBA is a joke, and the NFL is in the middle.

 

[silverfish]

Wow, that was really interesting. The relative curves matched my expectations across sports. The NFL draft is very deep, the NBA draft like everything NBA is a joke, and the NFL is in the middle.

Basically it's come to the point where I'd rather have an extra 3rd and 4th than a 2nd round pick, and I feel like something like this is never going to be accepted in hockey.

 

[JimmyG89]

Basically it's come to the point where I'd rather have an extra 3rd and 4th than a 2nd round pick, and I feel like something like this is never going to be accepted in hockey.

If we didn't have so many picks already, and potentially more picks coming, I'd be down to move our last 1st into a 2nd and a 3rd/4th. Teams are always looking to move into those slots late in the 1st to get someone they really like.

I'm almost upset with the focus put on players like McDonagh and Zuccarello at the deadline that they couldn't work out a deal of a 5th for Desharnais. You'd figure someone would have taken him as an extra forward with PO experience.

 

[SnowblindNYR]

Basically it's come to the point where I'd rather have an extra 3rd and 4th than a 2nd round pick, and I feel like something like this is never going to be accepted in hockey.

Lots of scouts will worry about their job security.

 

[Filthy Dangles]

There is a gap between the 32OA and 63OA. larger than the 64OA and 95OA. The graphs demonstrate that. At that point, it's basically all the same.

That's why the 2nd round is still tricky.

A late 2nd is probably worth trading for a 3rd and 4th but, not maybe not an early 2nd. Depends on the talent available, and who you might have on your board with that pick obviously.

 

[silverfish]

If we didn't have so many picks already, and potentially more picks coming, I'd be down to move our last 1st into a 2nd and a 3rd/4th. Teams are always looking to move into those slots late in the 1st to get someone they really like.

I'm almost upset with the focus put on players like McDonagh and Zuccarello at the deadline that they couldn't work out a deal of a 5th for Desharnais. You'd figure someone would have taken him as an extra forward with PO experience.

Yep. I kind of feel like that sort of trade (DD for a late pick) makes sense for both the selling and buying team. Selling team likely gets more value from the 5th rounder. Buying team likely gets more value for DD. Just one of the rare win/wins.

Lots of scouts will worry about their job security.

Good. That means we're getting somewhere.

There is a gap between the 32OA and 63OA. larger than the 64OA and 95OA. The graphs demonstrate that. At that point, it's basically all the same.

That's why the 2nd round is still tricky.

A late 2nd is probably worth trading for a 3rd and 4th but, not maybe not an early 2nd. Depends on the talent available, and who you might have on your board with that pick obviously.

Fair enough.

 

[Machinehead]

If we didn't have so many picks already, and potentially more picks coming, I'd be down to move our last 1st into a 2nd and a 3rd/4th. Teams are always looking to move into those slots late in the 1st to get someone they really like.

I'm almost upset with the focus put on players like McDonagh and Zuccarello at the deadline that they couldn't work out a deal of a 5th for Desharnais. You'd figure someone would have taken him as an extra forward with PO experience.

Yeah but then some player who was never on our list will get drafted around our original spot and become an all-star an we'll hear about it for the next 25 years.

 

[JimmyG89]

I trust Gordie and company enough that if we get a ton of swings at a draft board, we're going to be around 40% on our quality picks.

 

[Mac n Gs]

I really wish they’d update those draft values charts. There’s just such a huge difference between prospects in the mid 90s and now. How are the projections looking when you use this past decade? I’d assume teams (I know Tampa does from those leaked models) have updated values

 

[silverfish]

Is there any evidence that Hank is 'overpaid' outside of the fact that recent cup winners have had goalies who make less money than he does?

Because as far as I can tell, no one in this generation of tenders (post-lockout) has done it better or as long as Hank has...

 

[Irishguy42]

Is there any evidence that Hank is 'overpaid' outside of the fact that recent cup winners have had goalies who make less money than he does?

Because as far as I can tell, no one in this generation of tenders (post-lockout) has done it better or as long as Hank has...

"kIng WItHoUt A RiNg"

 

[silverfish]

 

[Miamipuck]

The big red line is Hank's contract and you're showing how overpaid he is.

 

[silverfish]

O'Gara is worse than what everyone thought McIlrath was.

 

[JESSEWENEEDTOCOOK]

O'Gara is Stu Bickel lol

 

[Harbour Dog]

Perhaps he'll come around when AV pairs him with Shattenkirk and sits one of the other ne'er-do-wells.

 

[JESSEWENEEDTOCOOK]

Perhaps he'll come around when AV pairs him with Shattenkirk and sits one of the other ne'er-do-wells.

O'Gara-Shattenkirk
Staal-Kampfer
Skjei-Gilmour

 

[Harbour Dog]

O'Gara-Shattenkirk
Staal-Kampfer
Skjei-Gilmour

That shutdown second pairing has every top line in the league quaking in their loafers.

 

[Igor Shestyorkin]

Is there any evidence that Hank is 'overpaid' outside of the fact that recent cup winners have had goalies who make less money than he does?

Because as far as I can tell, no one in this generation of tenders (post-lockout) has done it better or as long as Hank has...

He's not overpaid. At all. I feel like people don't actually grasp how exponential the amount of shots and quality of shots Hank has faced over his career has been. His workload is almost too abnormally high for a goaltender, that of which has been a Top 3 goaltender in the league throughout that entirety.

 

[Igor Shestyorkin]

O'Gara is trash.

 

[Mac n Gs]

Sample size is still small, but 13 games now with Brady Skjei as a 1D and his numbers are still solid. Only thing that's low is his on-ice shooting%. Let's hope that trend continues, especially since he's been doing it with a skeleton roster.

Also, I wouldn't even both getting worked up over O'Gara. He's an AHL body that's just filler for the rest of the season. I'm not even sure he's in the organization by July.

 

[silverfish]

Sample size is still small, but 13 games now with Brady Skjei as a 1D and his numbers are still solid. Only thing that's low is his on-ice shooting%. Let's hope that trend continues, especially since he's been doing it with a skeleton roster.

Also, I wouldn't even both getting worked up over O'Gara. He's an AHL body that's just filler for the rest of the season. I'm not even sure he's in the organization by July.

Skjei is a major make or break factor in this rebuild. I'm betting the Rangers bet on him long-term. He needs to become that player for them. Another (albeit slightly worse) McDonagh. But if Skjei maxes out as a good 2LD rather than an average 1LD, this team is in trouble.

We have the top line (KZB). We have the 2C (Hayes). We've got some talent to fill out the rest of the lineup. It's going to come back to how the FO builds the defense. Retreads of guys like Staal and G? Or new blood in the mold of Stralman's?

Klefbom time.

 

[Irishguy42]

Please please please please Chiarelli. Be stupid for us.

 

[silverfish]

Also as an off-topic sidenote, I love reading people's predictions on what the roster is going to look like in the future and it only includes players currently in the organization, as if we never sign any FAs or make trades.

Oh, and all the prospects magically pan out. Lindgren, Rykov, Hajek are all locks. Hope so!

 

[Irishguy42]