Salary Cap: Salary Cap & Roster Building | Nine Mile Skid on a Ten Mile Ride

[Ryder71]

I’d want Strome with Maroon. I’d do Sheary with a 2nd. Not the 1st though.

I don't like Strome, he has too many uneven efforts. I don't trust his work ethic.

 

[Riptide]

He was at a new club to start then got injured and had a crap coach. When Sully took over Bonino had 23 points in 35 games.

Meh... that was when HBK blew up. Kessel also had 42 pts in 52 games when Sullivan took over. We spent the next year trying to replicate that and it never happened.

 

[Ryder71]

He put up 29 points in 63 games. That's a 37pt pace - which incidentally is what he put up in 16/17. If that's not "effective" for a #3C then you have some incredibly unrealistic expectations for that position in general.

Here's what you're not understanding and it's something that I've been very consistent on. I don't want a ''typical'' 3c. I want to acquire a person to play 3C, but it doesn't mean his talent and offensive acumen can't exceed what that position typically entails. After all our back and forths you should realize that's what I was referring to. Now, is it gonna be easy to get such a player? Obviously not. But again JR really wanted Duchene. And while I believe that ship has sailed I'm sure he'd like to improve upon Sheahan.

Bozak would be a good get but again the leafs really don't want to trade with us. So while you're touting all these run of the mill 3c's, I set the bar higher. And until the deadline comes and goes I'll hold out a modicum of hope that we could acquire such a player. And if it doesn't happen then I'll expect a short playoff run and hope we regroup for next season.

 

[Tom Hanks]

Meh... that was when HBK blew up. Kessel also had 42 pts in 52 games when Sullivan took over. We spent the next year trying to replicate that and it never happened.

Yeah HBK was awesome and we all, including him benefited from it. He was still good before and after that though. That was his peak for sure. Down the stretch and 2016 playoffs was amazing and he was a huge part of why we won.

 

[Tom Hanks]

So while you're touting all these run of the mill 3c's, I set the bar higher. And until the deadline comes and goes I'll hold out a modicum of hope that we could acquire such a player. And if it doesn't happen then I'll expect a short playoff run and hope we regroup for next season.

Be prepared to be disappointed then

Rip is mentioning these centres because that’s reality. He, me, you, we all want a great 3C. JR’s been trying for 6-7 months. He got Sheahan because we couldn’t hold on any longer with our centre depth.

 

[Ryder71]

Be prepared to be disappointed then

Rip is mentioning these centres because that’s reality. He, me, you, we all want a great 3C. JR’s been trying for 6-7 months. He got Sheahan because we couldn’t hold on any longer with our centre depth.

Well, the reality is that we don't conclusively know if or what JR is able to pull off. We got Shultz for a 3rd rounder. Daley for Scuderi. And if you look at Sheahan he came rather cheaply and has played well. So, while it does look problematic and highly unlikely, it's not completely out of the question. Because, and as I said, Sheahan simply isn't good enough in that role (3C) come playoff time.

Furthermore I don't think those expectations or more accurately my hopes, are any more unrealistic than trying to go for a threepeat. And yet we all hold out hope for that.

 

[Tom Hanks]

Well, the reality is that we don't conclusively know if or what JR is able to pull off. We got Shultz for a 3rd rounder. Daley for Scuderi. And if you look at Sheahan he came rather cheaply and has played well. So, while it does look problematic and highly unlikely, it's not completely out of the question. Because, and as I said, Sheahan simply isn't good enough in that role (3C) come playoff time.

Furthermore I don't think those expectations or more accurately my hopes, are any more unrealistic than trying to go for a threepeat. And yet we all hold out hope for that.

Not great examples we brought in two struggling players and it benefited the other team to do the trade (that’s an important factor). Schultz was on a big decline and was having his worst season and Edmonton did not want to re sign him.
Daley was also having a bad season and Chicago needed a bit of cap relief to fit another player in their line up.

Do you want to bring in a comparable centre in a similar situation (awful year, declining rapidly) and take that risk? It sounds the opposite of what you want.

 

[Tender Rip]

Well, the reality is that we don't know if or what JR is able to pull off.

That is always true. But there is a very small group of teams that look to be genuinely out of the running, and outside of a team or two that'll join these before the deadline, we should at least consider that moves would have to be hockey trades that do not impair the other sides playoff possibilities - because such scenarios would not be realistic at all.

Ie. those out of it will sell for futures. Those who are not will only be relevant for hockey trades (or your crap for my crap scenery changes that might or might not pan out).

I am honestly getting hooked on the idea of Plekanec. The man is a very good defensive player and while his offense has taken a nose dive, that is also because of a much lower shooting percentage than usual, much less PP time and the fact that Montreal is on the whole a terrible team offensively.

Indeed, he is one of their top scorers ES. He has 14 points in 3rd, Line mate Gallagher is leading the Habs with 16 (with Danault) and his other linemate Byron is 4th with 13. Add to this that Pleks is +4 on a -21 team despite having tough match-ups and being greatly relied upon to win defensive draws/getting few OZ starts (being +53% on draws).... and being a character vet who is good on the PK...

I think we are going to have a hard time getting better than that for this season. He has the mind and creativity to set up good players as well. Could be some Cullen stuff there if we were lucky, and who knows... might stick around for a year on the cheap if contending is fun.

 

[Riptide]

Yeah for sure. Bonino is a good 3C. Good history of production in both regular season and playoffs (outside of Pitt) Smart, can play with talent, goes to the net, good defensively, scores goals (clutch ones too).

I’m not sure why we are talking about him anymore let’s move on.

Glad we established that.

Because I wanted to establish the baseline. If player A is putting up the same stats as player B and not getting the same advantages player A had (#1 winger, etc)... why is player A "okay" and player B "sub par" ?? And if player B is putting up better stats then player C (who's considered "ideal")... and similar stats to player D (who's also considered "ideal") while again not getting the same advantages they are... why does player B not get the same credit?

It wasn't to lament on Bonino specifically, but just trying to get some examples of the "baseline" as to what's a "good 3C" and what's a "subpar 3C".

So while you're touting all these run of the mill 3c's, I set the bar higher.

No you don't.

Sorry, let me re-phrase that. You only think you do. At least based on their actual numbers and the names you've given us.

Here's what you're not understanding and it's something that I've been very consistent on. I don't want a ''typical'' 3c.

Then why do you want Bjugstad, Bozak or Pageau? Brassard I get - he's a #2C. But the rest? Based on their actual numbers and not one's opinion, they've very very similar to Sheahan.

Here's the following players and their ES production (or pace if they missed significant time) and zone starts:

Bonino 2015/16: 8g, 34pt pace, 45.1%
Bonino 2016/17: 11g, 25pt, 43%
Bjugstad 17/18: 17g, 33pt pace, 47.3% (playing as a winger)
Bjugstad 15/16: 11g, 23pt pace, 44.7% (playing as a center)
Pageau 2016/17: 12g, 31pt, 42.8%
Pageau 2017/18: 10g, 27pt pace, 40.7%
Bozak 2016/17: 11g, 37pt, 52.6%
Bozak 2017/18: 13g, 33.5pt pace, 57.8%

Average of ^^: 11.6g, 30.3 points, 46.75%

Sheahan 17/18: 9g, 30.5pt pace, 33.5%
Plekanec 17/18: 8g, 31.2pt pace, 42.1%

There's only three outliers in that list. Sheahan with his 33.5% zone starts while putting up similar numbers to those above, Bozak with a 37 ES pt season while getting 57.8% zone starts and Bjugstad and his 17 goal pace while playing as a winger. Everything else is basically the same. But Sheahan sucks and is subpar while the rest are ideal and amazing.

You can cry to the heavens that Sheahan "isn't good enough"... but based on the very names you've provided... the ONLY difference is 2.6 goals over 82 games while getting 16.25% better zone starts. That's it. Everything else is the f***ing same - other than their last names. But one is a "low end 3C" and the rest are "good gets" and "not typical 3Cs".

Edit. I added Plekanec to the above list.

 

[Ryder71]

Not great examples we brought in two struggling players and it benefited the other team to do the trade (that’s an important factor). Schultz was on a big decline and was having his worst season and Edmonton did not want to re sign him.
Daley was also having a bad season and Chicago needed a bit of cap relief to fit another player in their line up.

Do you want to bring in a comparable centre in a similar situation (awful year, declining rapidly) and take that risk? It sounds the opposite of what you want.

In the first two deals I referenced, those moves came out of nowhere and yet yielded big impacts. The Sheahan deal was widely speculated about but JR got good return relative to what he gave up. My point was that deals can come out of nowhere and that JR has a recent history with us of getting good value. So I view those as good signs. Of course it remains to be seen if he has anything he can get done in the next few weeks. I'm just not gonna count him out, or expect him to settle. Maybe it will turn out that way, but I don't think that's his mindset just yet.

 

[Ryder71]

Glad we established that.

Because I wanted to establish the baseline. If player A is putting up the same stats as player B and not getting the same advantages player A had (#1 winger, etc)... why is player A "okay" and player B "sub par" ?? And if player B is putting up better stats then player C (who's considered "ideal")... and similar stats to player D (who's also considered "ideal") while again not getting the same advantages they are... why does player B not get the same credit?


No you don't.

Sorry, let me re-phrase that. You only think you do. At least based on their actual numbers and the names you've given us.


Then why do you want Bjugstad, Bozak or Pageau? Brassard I get - he's a #2C. But the rest? Based on their actual numbers and not one's opinion, they've very very similar to Sheahan.

Here's the following players and their ES production (or pace if they missed significant time) and zone starts:

Bonino 2015/16: 8g, 34pt pace, 45.1%
Bonino 2016/17: 11g, 25pt, 43%
Bjugstad 17/18: 17g, 33pt pace, 47.3% (playing as a winger)
Bjugstad 15/16: 11g, 23pt pace, 44.7% (playing as a center)
Pageau 2016/17: 12g, 31pt, 42.8%
Pageau 2017/18: 10g, 27pt pace, 40.7%
Bozak 2016/17: 11g, 37pt, 52.6%
Bozak 2017/18: 13g, 33.5pt pace, 57.8%

Average of ^^: 11.6g, 30.3 points, 46.75%

Sheahan 17/18: 9g, 30.5pt pace, 33.5%
Plekanec 17/18: 8g, 31.2pt pace, 42.1%

There's only three outliers in that list. Sheahan with his 33.5% zone starts while putting up similar numbers to those above, Bozak with a 37 ES pt season while getting 57.8% zone starts and Bjugstad and his 17 goal pace while playing as a winger. Everything else is basically the same. But Sheahan sucks and is subpar while the rest are ideal and amazing.

You can cry to the heavens that Sheahan "isn't good enough"... but based on the very names you've provided... the ONLY difference is 2.6 goals over 82 games while getting 16.25% better zone starts. That's it. Everything else is the ****ing same - other than their last names. But one is a "low end 3C" and the rest are "good gets" and "not typical 3Cs".

Edit. I added Plekanec to the above list.

Sheahan doesn't suck, but he shouldn't be our 3c. In addition you excluded Brassard from my list, why? Because he didn't fit your narrative, and when you exclude a player like that then you're moving the goalposts and presenting an uneven argument. You should be better than that. Beyond that in every case the players I selected had better goal totals. In addition you're not looking at their total production because you know your argument wouldn't hold water. Look at their total production.

Again you're cherry picking the stats you like and excluding others. Bozak had 55 points last year. Do the numbers properly then get back to me. There's a reason why players like Bozak would get more offensive zone starts, it's because the coach knows he's a more offensively gifted player.

 

[Ryder71]

Bozak 44 GP 8g 16a 24 points
Bozak 78 GP 18g 37a 55 points

Sheahan 43GP 4g 10a 14 points
Sheahan 80GP 2g 11a 13 points

Here's their totals for the last two seasons. To act as if these two players are close in offensive acumen is a joke!

I'll add the other three

Brassard 42GP 12g 16a 28 points
Brassard 81GP 14g 25a 39point
Pageau 42GP 6g 9a 15 points
Pageau 82GP 12g 21a 33points
Bjugstad 42GP 9g 11a 20 points

 

[Peat]

So while you're touting all these run of the mill 3c's, I set the bar higher. And until the deadline comes and goes I'll hold out a modicum of hope that we could acquire such a player. And if it doesn't happen then I'll expect a short playoff run and hope we regroup for next season.

We won the cup last year with a 3C doing .33 ppg. That's about average for what a cup winning 3C does. As such, I don't see why an average 3C is the herald of a short cup run.

Also, given that Bonino had at least sporadic top 6 scoring ability, but never put up a good clip when a defensive 3C, I'm not sure that getting a hyper talented 3C is going to yield the results people expect. Karlsson at Vegas is another example of role dictating scoring.

Edit: Bozak is only 3 goals and an assist ahead of sheahan at ES. And he's unlikely to be in much of a position to post many PP points here.

 

[Ryder71]

We won the cup last year with a 3C doing .33 ppg. That's about average for what a cup winning 3C does. As such, I don't see why an average 3C is the herald of a short cup run.

Also, given that Bonino had at least sporadic top 6 scoring ability, but never put up a good clip when a defensive 3C, I'm not sure that getting a hyper talented 3C is going to yield the results people expect. Karlsson at Vegas is another example of role dictating scoring.

Edit: Bozak is only 3 goals and an assist ahead of sheahan at ES. And he's unlikely to be in much of a position to post many PP points here.

And yet he's still ahead of Sheahan isn't he? Why do we have to minimize Bozak? Also can we be sure he wouldn't get PP time? That's conjecture and as great as our PP is, three quarters of the time they fail which means that the 2hd unit often gets a look. Beyond that Bozak is the better talent. Again if you look at the totality of the the players respective skillset it's not even remotely close if you're being honest about it.

 

[cygnus47]

Bjugstad
Brassard
Bozak
Nelson
Pageau
Gagner
RNH

Anyone else? Regardless of whether they're realistic?

 

[Riptide]

Sheahan doesn't suck, but he shouldn't be our 3c. In addition you excluded Brassard from my list, why? Because he didn't fit your narrative, and when you exclude a player like that then you're moving the goalposts and presenting an uneven argument.

No I excluded him for 3 reasons. 1) He's a 2c and not a 3C - that's very clear based on his numbers. 2) He's significantly better than the others you named which were all fairly comparable. And 3) because according to his own GM he's "not available" and "isn't being traded."

Lastly... he didn't even fit YOUR narrative. You listed three "3Cs" and one "2C". The latter is a given that we'd all want him to be our 3C. Unfortunately the odds are stupidly remote, so I focused on the guys that were more realistic, and who were actual comparables instead of the golden unicorn that was the exception.

You should be better than that. Beyond that in every case the players I selected had better goal totals. In addition you're not looking at their total production because you know your argument wouldn't hold water. Look at their total production.

Again you're cherry picking the stats you like and excluding others. Bozak had 55 points last year. Do the numbers properly then get back to me. There's a reason why players like Bozak would get more offensive zone starts, it's because the coach knows he's a more offensively gifted player.

Not at even strength they didn't. Which means the only way those names hold any water as being "better" is when you compare apples to oranges. Because when you compare the same stats, it's all the same. But then that doesn't work for you does it?

55 points only matters if you think he's going to get 2:22 of PP time a game as one of the top 2 forwards here in Pittsburgh - something Bonino didn't even get - and that's when we weren't running the f*** out of our #1PP. Which means their "total production" is irrelevant when said player won't get the same PP minutes. Want to take a guess on what sort of PP time Bozak would get in Pittsburgh? Guentzel - our 5th forward on PP TOI doesn't even get 2:22 a game. Sheary our #6F on the PP? Less than 1:20 a game. Comparing someone with PP minutes to someone without, you look at what you can - their ES production. If these players are "so much better" then their ES stats will show it, and they shouldn't be dependent on PP minutes to boost their numbers - something that they will certainly not get here. And if they do get it, they sure as f*** won't be tied as the #2 forward in PP minutes. Why I even have to explain this I do not know - this is stupidly simple - or at least it should be.

As for their zone starts - you're only partially right. Do you know who else gets high OZ starts? Players who are shit defensively, and cannot be trusted to take a faceoff in their own zone. You'd think Toronto - a team with 3 high end centers would put their best two in the offensive zone - but they didn't. Why? Because one of them cannot be trusted in the DZ - so they give those starts to someone else. Why do you think Guentzel saw 70% the last 4 games, Sheahan saw 22% and Crosby 44%? Because the latter two can be trusted defensively and the former cannot. It also begs the question... on a team with Crosby and Malkin - players who are very gifted offensively, who you want to start in the OZ... why the f*** would you want someone else challenging them for OZ starts? You want someone who can start in the DZ and still put up points. The very last thing you want is someone dependent on OZ starts to put up points.

 

[Riptide]

Bozak 44 GP 8g 16a 24 points
Bozak 78 GP 18g 37a 55 points

Sheahan 43GP 4g 10a 14 points
Sheahan 80GP 2g 11a 13 points

Here's their totals for the last two seasons. To act as if these two players are close in offensive acumen is a joke!

I'll add the other three

Brassard 42GP 12g 16a 28 points
Brassard 81GP 14g 25a 39point
Pageau 42GP 6g 9a 15 points
Pageau 82GP 12g 21a 33points
Bjugstad 42GP 9g 11a 20 points

Interesting that when you bring up last year's numbers, you don't bring up Bjugstads... At least I was honest enough with myself to overlook that. But then I guess a player who was only on pace to score 21 points doesn't fit your nartative does it?

Also... why do we care what Sheahan did in Detroit on a different team in a different role? The important thing is what he's actually doing here in Pittsburgh. But again, that doesn't fit your narrative. The numbers say otherwise, but of course those need to be dismissed. It's rather sad.

 

[Riptide]

Bjugstad
Brassard
Bozak
Nelson
Pageau
Gagner
RNH

Anyone else? Regardless of whether they're realistic?

Out of those the only 3 who are realistic that I'd want are Bjugstad, Pageau and Bozak. Nelson won't get traded to us.

Thornton or Tavares. Unfortunately they're about as realistic as RNH and Brassard.

 

[Riptide]

And yet he's still ahead of Sheahan isn't he? Why do we have to minimize Bozak? Also can we be sure he wouldn't get PP time? That's conjecture and as great as our PP is, three quarters of the time they fail which means that the 2hd unit often gets a look. Beyond that Bozak is the better talent. Again if you look at the totality of the the players respective skillset it's not even remotely close if you're being honest about it.

I'm not minimizing anyone. I pulled the exact same stats for each player.

If you're being honest, you'd compare apples to apples, and at least be open to looking at the same stats for each player.

Yeah Kessel played with him, and?

You can't see for a second how that would be an advantage for a player offensively? You talk about being "honest about it" then on the same page you're acting as dense as possible. Two players put up stupidly similar numbers... one had the advantage of playing along side Kessel for the vast majority of his time here... and you act like it's nothing... Common man, wake up.

 

[Peat]

And yet he's still ahead of Sheahan isn't he? Why do we have to minimize Bozak? Also can we be sure he wouldn't get PP time? That's conjecture and as great as our PP is, three quarters of the time they fail which means that the 2hd unit often gets a look. Beyond that Bozak is the better talent. Again if you look at the totality of the the players respective skillset it's not even remotely close if you're being honest about it.

I never said he wasn't ahead.

I was implying that they are close at the moment in counter to your point that saying they're close is a joke. And I'll say it out loud. Right now they're close.

Riptide's gone into detail about the power play usage Bozak can expect here so I shan't repeat it - I don't expect any player to prosper hugely on the power play with that. I don't think our 2nd PP unit has really prospered at all since Sully arrived except for the brief spell when Streit was QBing it.

Is Bozak a better offensive talent? From what I've seen, yes. Is he a significantly better 3C for ES offence than Sheahan? Depends on your measuring scale I guess. Bozak is consistently good for mid 30s ES scoring as a 3C (which is really good) but he also gets zone starts that the average Pittsburgh 3C can only dream of. Its also on average, about 5-6 points ahead of where Sheahan is measuring to be, which may not be significant (most of them goals though, which is significant).

And the zone starts thing is pretty important, because unless we somehow get so hot that there's plenty of offensive zone starts for the top three lines, someone's still got to take defensive draws. Either 3C has to score their points with largely defensive starts... or they get good starts, but Crosby pays the price. And I'm not really fond of that idea. Would Bozak still get 35ish ES points with 60% defensive starts? Not a lot of players do that I'm aware of. Kadri managed it last season, but he's on pace for 30 at the moment.

Is Bozak flat out the better talent? Dunno. The fact Sheahan can be trusted in his own zone and Bozak can't is a pretty big deal, maybe enough to outweigh the difference in offence.

This isn't me being down on Bozak or trying to minimise him either. Just looking at him as an example and measuring stick of 3C ES play and seeing where Sheahan measures up.

 

[wej20]

Bjugstad
Brassard
Bozak
Nelson
Pageau
Gagner
RNH

Anyone else? Regardless of whether they're realistic?

Plekanec

 

[Shady Machine]

Interesting that when you bring up last year's numbers, you don't bring up Bjugstads... At least I was honest enough with myself to overlook that. But then I guess a player who was only on pace to score 21 points doesn't fit your nartative does it?

Also... why do we care what Sheahan did in Detroit on a different team in a different role? The important thing is what he's actually doing here in Pittsburgh. But again, that doesn't fit your narrative. The numbers say otherwise, but of course those need to be dismissed. It's rather sad.

How do we compare the quality of players if we can't use their history on other teams? Sheahan is playing well here NOW, but you are trying to use Sheahan's current pace on the Penguins vs other centers historical production on other teams. Don't you think that's a tad misleading? Compare Sheahan's production over the past 3 years, regardless of team vs the other centers' historical production over the same period of time. That's the right way to do it.

 

[Ryder71]

Interesting that when you bring up last year's numbers, you don't bring up Bjugstads... At least I was honest enough with myself to overlook that. But then I guess a player who was only on pace to score 21 points doesn't fit your nartative does it?

Also... why do we care what Sheahan did in Detroit on a different team in a different role? The important thing is what he's actually doing here in Pittsburgh. But again, that doesn't fit your narrative. The numbers say otherwise, but of course those need to be dismissed. It's rather sad.

See, that's an unbalanced argument, if you're gonna use the players last couple of years I cited, you have to do the same for Sheahan. And Sheahan has 6 goals over his last 123 games. No matter how to try to manipulate the criteria, not one player I mentioned is even close to that level of futility. Even in Bjugstads bad year last season he had 7 goals in 54 games. But if you want to go on and push this ridiculous narrative go ahead, because it's crazy, it really is.

 

[Shady Machine]

And the zone starts thing is pretty important, because unless we somehow get so hot that there's plenty of offensive zone starts for the top three lines, someone's still got to take defensive draws. Either 3C has to score their points with largely defensive starts... or they get good starts, but Crosby pays the price. And I'm not really fond of that idea. Would Bozak still get 35ish ES points with 60% defensive starts? Not a lot of players do that I'm aware of. Kadri managed it last season, but he's on pace for 30 at the moment.

Is Bozak flat out the better talent? Dunno. The fact Sheahan can be trusted in his own zone and Bozak can't is a pretty big deal, maybe enough to outweigh the difference in offence.

This isn't me being down on Bozak or trying to minimise him either. Just looking at him as an example and measuring stick of 3C ES play and seeing where Sheahan measures up.

If you get Bozak, it's to create a dynamic 3rd line with Kessel and they will get heavy Ozone starts. Crosby will "pay the price", but it will likely be the best move for the team. Sheahan heavy Dzone starts, then Crosby and Malkin next, and Bozak the least.

It may not be the ideal solution, but if he's the best player available at the most reasonable price, I'd pull the trigger.

 

[Shady Machine]

See, that's an unbalanced argument, if you're gonna use the players last couple of years I cited, you have to do the same for Sheahan. And Sheahan has 6 goals over his last 123 games. No matter how to try to manipulate the criteria, not one player I mentioned is even close to that level of futility.

True and I agree, but you do have to consider, to Rip's point, the different role Sheahan played the last 2 years in Detroit. He fell out of favor with the coach, much of it due to poor play I would guess, but that impacted his ice time and role considerably. So it's fair to say that with more trust and ice time he could increase his production. So far that has held true in Pittsburgh.

Of course, to your point, if we give that benefit to Sheahan we would need to somehow account for that with the other players which Rip doesn't.