Roster Building XIX - Did we blow the deadline? Need to ask the magic 8-ball

[Nikishin Go Boom]

With Jarvis and Necas upping their value over the last 2 months, we are likely looking at 14.5 million to keep both. That leaves 16.2 million, with KK, to fill the 3LW, top line winger, 4LW, 4RW, 2RD, 3LD, and 3RD. that money goes quickly.

Our 4th lines and 3rd pairing players are going to have to be at bargain prices to keep the talent needed in the top lines and pairings.

Without KK it gives us 20.2 to 21 million, depending on how we move him but adding the need for a 4C. We either us that money to increase the talent of depth or add more money that is available to 1LW/2RD.

Our best bet maybe finding a guy that is on his last year of his ELC and overpaying for him to give us considerable production at minimal price to put more money elsewhere.

Some depth guys who may take less money to chase a cup:

C: Tyler Johnson. Righty center type guy, good production, and decent FO guy.
winger: Okposo, Silfverberg, Christian Fischer
defense: TJ Brodie, Erik Johnson (could be Morrow insurance)

Guys who make take 1 year deals to get their value back up:
Debrusk, Zucker, Kylington

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

I still think that Ty Smith and Comtois were players the Canes acquired because they think they have future use for. Could end up being another case like Coghlan where they never really do, but I think they'll give them a chance to be a bottom 6 forward and a 6/7 D next year.

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

I still think that Ty Smith and Comtois were players the Canes acquired because they think they have future use for. Could end up being another case like Coghlan where they never really do, but I think they'll give them a chance to be a bottom 6 forward and a 6/7 D next year.

if we were trading Rees and Pono, getting Comtois was necessary to have some playoff depth.

 

[Chrispy]

We don’t strike me as a buy out management, living with a cap hit for that many years is a generation long reminder of this transaction. If you have to pay someone a little something to take him, you do it. If we can take someone else’s garbage and turn it to gold for us then we do that.

I don’t see a buyout and I don’t see them paying KK’s salary to be on the fourth line. They could ride it out a year then give him back the second line I suppose, but now that they’ve seen for a second time what having a better player in that spot can do I have a hard time thinking they’ll intentionally put KK in the 2C spot again.

I think it's an interesting question: what is an $835K cap hit annually for 12 years worth in terms of a draft pick attached to Kotkaniemi? I don't think it should be much, if anything.

<1% of the cap is a minimal outlay even if it's for a long time. They spent more than that this year on burying Raanta.

I think the $4M vs $4.8M cap hit savings is worth not attaching an asset to Kotkaniemi. In fact, a buyout would only be a $470K cap hit in 2028, 2029, and 2030 ($835K all other years.) But if you can deal him for future considerations or a middling prospect as @Justicebork suggests that would be better.

They can also continue to experiment as they can still buy out Kotkaniemi at 1/3 in 2024, 2025, and even June 2026. But I agree that acquiring Kuznetsov has accelerated the decision on Kotkaniemi. They can't afford to have Aho, Kuznetsov, Staal, Kotkaniemi, and RFA Drury next year.

 

[WreckingCrew]

With Jarvis and Necas upping their value over the last 2 months, we are likely looking at 14.5 million to keep both. That leaves 16.2 million, with KK, to fill the 3LW, top line winger, 4LW, 4RW, 2RD, 3LD, and 3RD. that money goes quickly.

Our 4th lines and 3rd pairing players are going to have to be at bargain prices to keep the talent needed in the top lines and pairings.

Without KK it gives us 20.2 to 21 million, depending on how we move him but adding the need for a 4C. We either us that money to increase the talent of depth or add more money that is available to 1LW/2RD.

Our best bet maybe finding a guy that is on his last year of his ELC and overpaying for him to give us considerable production at minimal price to put more money elsewhere.

Some depth guys who may take less money to chase a cup:

C: Tyler Johnson. Righty center type guy, good production, and decent FO guy.
winger: Okposo, Silfverberg, Christian Fischer
defense: TJ Brodie, Erik Johnson (could be Morrow insurance)

Guys who make take 1 year deals to get their value back up:
Debrusk, Zucker, Kylington

As much as I hate it, we almost have to do a "bridge" probably for Jarvis for a year or two. Orlov and Burns coming off the books after next season would give us an additional $13M to work with. I wouldn't mind KK being our 3C, but perhaps Drury is the better guy there long-term...I want to see KK succeed, but giving absolutely no offensive production is making him a buyout candidate.

 

[User13452]

I don’t see the front office or Dundon doing a buyout on KK at least not after this season. I don’t think Dundon would allow it. He’s still only 23 I think he gets another year or two

 

[Derailed75]

There is no decision to be made between them. If Guentzel is open to extending you do it 10 times out of 10 and wish Turbo the best of luck in his future endeavors

In a vacuum, yes. However I think you would get better production out of Turbo and the additional money you would have to spend. I think Turbo would stay for below market value and his market value is lower then Guentzels

 

[NotOpie]

Once again, you don't need to add assets to dump Kotkaniemi.

He can be bought out this June for an $835K payout and cap hit annually. That would give Carolina an additional $4M in cap space next season with zero assets given up.

Yup $835,000 for the 1st 3 seasons, then $455,00 for the next 3 seasons and then back to $835,000 for the remainder of the 12 years.

I think we're looking at the below.

Guentz - Aho - Jarvis
Svech - Kuzy - Necas
Martinook - Staal - Fast
Noesen - KK/Drury - TT

And it flips between KK and Drury depending on who is playing well, so likely Drury to start when he's back.

Noesen almost assuredly prices himself out of the market. I also think you flop flop TT and Fast. Staal's line needs one semi-scoring threat.

Rod likes Drury, which is an easy thing to see coming. He’d choose him over KK. One could move to wing though.

Drury played a fair amount of LW in both college and in Sweden. He's played some minutes at LW this season as well.

 

[Svechhammer]

Yup $835,000 for the 1st 3 seasons, then $455,00 for the next 3 seasons and then back to $835,000 for the remainder of the 12 years.

Noesen almost assuredly prices himself out of the market. I also think you flop flop TT and Fast. Staal's line needs one semi-scoring threat.

Drury played a fair amount of LW in both college and in Sweden. He's played some minutes at LW this season as well.

their usage right after Kuz suited up for us was that Drury is the center and KK is the wing. Tells you all you need to know about how the coaching staff views them right now

 

[robbieberns]

Regarding Jarvis and a potential bridge, I was wondenring if would be ok with 3 years @ 6 mil. He would still be getting good money in the summer, and means he’d be up to sign an 8 year deal for age 25-33. Canes save a bit for the next three years, it let’s Jarvis maximize his earnings by getting him paid well a little later into his 30s.

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

Regarding Jarvis and a potential bridge, I was wondenring if would be ok with 3 years @ 6 mil. He would still be getting good money in the summer, and means he’d be up to sign an 8 year deal for age 25-33. Canes save a bit for the next three years, it let’s Jarvis maximize his earnings by getting him paid well a little later into his 30s.

so a 3 year 6 bridge gives Jarvis all of the negotiating power in the next deal. He can go to Arb but even take his QO offer with no 2nd thought and get to FA. No chance we would ever get a discount for Jarvis' services.

 

[Big Daddy Cane]

Boldy seems like a solid comp for Jarvis. Comparable draft pedigree. Jarvis has more GP, but Boldy produced right away (62 points over his first 82 GP). He's at $7 mil per on a 7 year term.

 

[bleedgreen]

Hard to think we’d get Jarvis for less than 7 long term. Maybe 6.5. Question is we don’t really know how productive a forward he’s going to be. He’s with 6-7 a year but past that is a big guess. Of course we want to lock him in but it wouldn’t be weird for this to be his max production level. I think he looks like a 60’s pt guy generally for his prime, I don’t see him as a ppg type but you never know. 6.5-8 seems like the range.

 

[NotOpie]

their usage right after Kuz suited up for us was that Drury is the center and KK is the wing. Tells you all you need to know about how the coaching staff views them right now

Drury is actually better at the dot (54% vs 50%). I believe they both took draws. I also think that Jack rotated to the wing once possession was established....but perhaps I missed something. Regardless, for next year, neither is going to be the 2C.

I really like both players, but feel that KK has the higher ceiling if he can gain consistency. Jack is certainly the more consistent now. Time will tell. If both remain on the team, one will be 2C and the other 3C IMO.

 

[robbieberns]

so a 3 year 6 bridge gives Jarvis all of the negotiating power in the next deal. He can go to Arb but even take his QO offer with no 2nd thought and get to FA. No chance we would ever get a discount for Jarvis' services.

Fair enough, with that being the case let’s just get that 8 year deal done.

 

[Unsustainable]

2y bridge for Jarvis seems like the best bet, 2x5 maybe.

 

[NotOpie]

2y bridge for Jarvis seems like the best bet, 2x5 maybe.

Again, I don't think you have to go that high....I'm thinking $3.5 million to $4 million tops. We bridged Necas at 3 million the year after a 70 point season and that was only 2 years ago.

 

[spockBokk]

Again, I don't think you have to go that high....I'm thinking $3.5 million to $4 million tops. We bridged Necas at 3 million the year after a 70 point season and that was only 2 years ago.

Slight correction -Necas put up 71 on the first year of his bridge. He was coming off a disappointing season when he signed that deal.

Jarvis will be coming off a likely 60+ season. He’ll be looking for a lot more on a bridge imho.

 

[NotOpie]

Slight correction -Necas put up 71 on the first year of his bridge. He was coming off a disappointing season when he signed that deal.

Jarvis will be coming off a likely 60+ season. He’ll be looking for a lot more on a bridge imho.

You're right about Necas; got my years mixed. Prior to the 71 point season Necas scored at a 46, 63, and 42 point pace with 21-22 season characterized as a bit disappointing.

Jarvis's 1st 3 years in the league have him scoring at a 48 and 39 point pace prior to this season and he's on a 65 point pace this year. I believe you can see the similarities. Both players had a disappointing season prior to their "break out" season. Production-wise, from a points perspective, they are nearly the same. Hence, my point still stands, given their production, Jarvis deserves a bit of a bump over Necas on his bridge, but his results are just not that significantly different.

Like I said, give him a 2 year $3.5 million or $4 million per season bridge and it would be fair from an internal production point of view.

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

to maximize roster retention. Let just get silly here, yes this is silly.

We offer Necas a long term deal, he doenst want it so we go to Arb for a year. 1 x 5.5 is what he gets
We bridge Jarvis 2 x 4
We keep Martinook for around 1.5 million per for 4 years
Drury gets a 1.5 million deal for 1 year.
Chatty stays for 2 x 2.5 million
Then Guentzel stays for around Svech money.

That would leave us with 8 million to get 1 roster forward, 2 defenders, and a depth defender. Make it 12 million if we move KK. we could potentially really hurt ourselves down the road with these shrewd decisions but have another 34 million in cap space the next offseason to keep Slavin, Necas, and probably Burns too. Then another 5 cap jump again with Jarvis and Nikishin needing to be re-signed.

its a way to keep as many folks as possible to prevent crazy roster turnover and keep us at the top.

 

[Unsustainable]

to maximize roster retention. Let just get silly here, yes this is silly.

We offer Necas a long term deal, he doenst want it so we go to Arb for a year. 1 x 5.5 is what he gets
We bridge Jarvis 2 x 4
We keep Martinook for around 1.5 million per for 4 years
Drury gets a 1.5 million deal for 1 year.
Chatty stays for 2 x 2.5 million
Then Guentzel stays for around Svech money.

That would leave us with 8 million to get 1 roster forward, 2 defenders, and a depth defender. Make it 12 million if we move KK. we could potentially really hurt ourselves down the road with these shrewd decisions but have another 34 million in cap space the next offseason to keep Slavin, Necas, and probably Burns too. Then another 5 cap jump again with Jarvis and Nikishin needing to be re-signed.

its a way to keep as many folks as possible to prevent crazy roster turnover and keep us at the top.

Using your comps 8m left

 

[robbieberns]

35.72 in cap space next year, this is under the assumption KK gets moved with no retention and no salary coming back. Thinking to somewhere like SJ or Chicago who are desperate for any kind of skill at NHL level and who will have adequate cap space.

Guentzel - 8.5
Necas - 7.25
Jarvis - 7.25
Chatfield - 3.5
Drury - 2

After these (generous) deals, we’re left with 7.22 in cap with the following line up.

Guentzel - Aho - Jarvis
Svech - Kuzy - Necas
x - Staal - x
Lemieux - Drury - Fast
x

Slavin - Burns
Orlov - Chatfield
x - x
x

Freddie
Pyotr
Martin

I think at the end of the day either Guentzel doesn’t re-sign here or Necas gets moved. It seems like if they work hard they can maybe just have enough room to squeeze everyone in, but it would require a lot of ELC/league min vets to fill out the roster and I’m not sure Rod and the management group would be too fond of a top six heavy unbalanced roster.

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

35.72 in cap space next year, this is under the assumption KK gets moved with no retention and no salary coming back. Thinking to somewhere like SJ or Chicago who are desperate for any kind of skill at NHL level and who will have adequate cap space.

Guentzel - 8.5
Necas - 7.25
Jarvis - 7.25
Chatfield - 3.5
Drury - 2

After these (generous) deals, we’re left with 7.22 in cap with the following line up.

Guentzel - Aho - Jarvis
Svech - Kuzy - Necas
x - Staal - x
Lemieux - Drury - Fast
x

Slavin - Burns
Orlov - Chatfield
x - x
x

Freddie
Pyotr
Martin

I think at the end of the day either Guentzel doesn’t re-sign here or Necas gets moved. It seems like if they work hard they can maybe just have enough room to squeeze everyone in, but it would require a lot of ELC/league min vets to fill out the roster and I’m not sure Rod and the management group would be too fond of a top six heavy unbalanced roster.

We know martinook is coming back

 

[robbieberns]

We know martinook is coming back

don’t threaten me with a time

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

don’t threaten me with a time

I would be surprised that we keep both Necas and JG. Add in double surprised if we kept JG, Necas, and Jarvis on long term deals.

Imo its 2 of them long term or we go 1 long term (JG by default), a 2 year bridge for jarvis, and an arbitration 1 year for Necas.

Just not enough wiggle room for next season to keep all 3 long term.