Roster Building XIX - Did we blow the deadline? Need to ask the magic 8-ball

[Evgeny Oliker]

With goalies alternating starts, is that going to continue with Andersen starting against Boston on Thursday?


Thanks

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

With goalies alternating starts, is that going to continue with Andersen starting against Boston on Thursday?


Thanks

Let me point you to the response I gave you back in February.

I'd recommend you follow Walt Ruff on twitter. You'll get more information from him than you will get here.

WaltRuff

 

[Blueline Bomber]

Let me point you to the response I gave you back in February.

But his fantasy team needs to know before Walt announced anything on Twitter.

 

[Unsustainable]

8.75m aav for 8 years is equal to 10m aav over 7. Guentzel should get that contract.

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

8.75m aav for 8 years is equal to 10m aav over 7. Guentzel should get that contract.

Too much

 

[cptjeff]

Too much

LOL wut? If anything, that's a discount from what he gets on the open market.

Guys like Guentzel don't come cheap and the cap is going up. If he was going to sign at a discount he would have already done it in Pittsburgh. People here need to get used to the idea that not every elite offensive player is going to take the discount Aho took.

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

LOL wut? If anything, that's a discount from what he gets on the open market.

Guys like Guentzel don't come cheap and the cap is going up. If he was going to sign at a discount he would have already done it in Pittsburgh. People here need to get used to the idea that not every elite offensive player is going to take the discount Aho took.

If someone wants to give him 10 million on the open market, please go there. Paying almost 9 million until he is 38 is bad.

Give him a high paying 3-4 year with declining money the last 4 years. Bring his aav down so we can afford a team around him. The growing cap can help hide his aav as his performance declines from 35-38

edit: the max we should offer is 4 x 9.5 million, 2 years of 7.5 million, 1 x 5 and 1 x 2.5. That would bring the money to 60.5 million or 7.56 million aav. That would mean a 8.64 million aav for 7 years. Ideally his 8 year aav should be around 7.25 million or lower.

 

[NotOpie]

I'm still in the camp that we will see Jake walk this Summer.

However,I did run some numbers a while back and we can sign Guentzel to something like an $8.25 million contract, bridge Jarvis for $3.5 -$4 million, sign Necas to an 8 x $7 million deal, keep Drury for $1.75 million, sign Chatfield for $3 million per for 3-4 years, re-sign Martinook for his current salary ($1.8 million) and keep Spencer Martin as a 3rd tender.

We'd also have about $4 million to spend on a 4th line (assume Lemieux is part of that line) and fill out our 3rd pairing defense for about $3 million.

That would be 13 forwards and 7 defenders (assuming Coghlan as the 7th) and 3 goalies.

We would lose Pesce, Skjei, and Tuevo.

So we would look something like this:

Guentzel/Aho/Jarvis
Svechnikov/Kuznetzov/Necas
Martinook/Staal/Fast
Lemieux/Drury/Kotkaniemi
13th forward

Slavin/Burns
Orlov/Chatfield
UFA/Morrow or UFA
Coghlan

Kochetkov
Andersen
Martin

That would leave us around $700k.

EDIT: forgot our sweet Russian in the first iteration; added back in. He was, however, included in the salary calculations

 

[MinJaBen]

I'm still in the camp that we will see Jake walk this Summer.

However,I did run some numbers a while back and we can sign Guentzel to something like an $8.25 million contract, bridge Jarvis for $3.5 -$4 million, sign Necas to an 8 x $7 million deal, keep Drury for $1.75 million, sign Chatfield for $3 million per for 3-4 years, re-sign Martinook for his current salary ($1.8 million) and keep Spencer Martin as a 3rd tender.

We'd also have about $4 million to spend on a 4th line (assume Lemieux is part of that line) and fill out our 3rd pairing defense for about $3 million.

That would be 13 forwards and 7 defenders (assuming Coghlan as the 7th) and 3 goalies.

We would lose Pesce, Skjei, and Tuevo.

So we would look something like this:

Guentzel/Aho/Jarvis
Drury/Kuznetzov/Necas
Martinook/Staal/Fast
Lemieux/Kotkaniemi/UFA or Rookie
13th forward

Slavin/Burns
Orlov/Chatfield
UFA/Morrow or UFA
Coghlan

Kochetkov
Andersen
Martin

That would leave us around $700k

Damn. Gonna miss Svech….

 

[Lempo]

Damn. Gonna miss Svech….

Forgot about 'drei

 

[cptjeff]

If someone wants to give him 10 million on the open market, please go there. Paying almost 9 million until he is 38 is bad.

Give him a high paying 3-4 year with declining money the last 4 years. Bring his aav down so we can afford a team around him. The growing cap can help hide his aav as his performance declines from 35-38

edit: the max we should offer is 4 x 9.5 million, 2 years of 7.5 million, 1 x 5 and 1 x 2.5. That would bring the money to 60.5 million or 7.56 million aav. That would mean a 8.64 million aav for 7 years. Ideally his 8 year aav should be around 7.25 million or lower.

He's a premium scorer who also plays a legitimately complete game. Exactly the guy we've been lusting after for a decade. We're already seeing the results. You're not going to find guys like that in the bargain bin. If the term is a little too long- so what. It's your best chance to nab a guy like that in forever. You take it.

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

S

He's a premium scorer who also plays a legitimately complete game. Exactly the guy we've been lusting after for a decade. We're already seeing the results. You're not going to find guys like that in the bargain bin. If the term is a little too long- so what. It's your best chance to nab a guy like that in forever. You take it.

no one is saying pay him bargain bin deal. 8 x 8.75 is Atlanta rapper money.

Basing long term success off of a small size with us isn’t very smart either.

8 x 7.56 million is more than enough for a likely decline production forward

 

[Chan790]

8 x 7.56 million is more than enough for a likely decline production forward

Is it enough to keep him? I don't think it is.

I'm yet to hear how anyone expects to replace him if we don't re-sign him. He's not superfluous.

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

Is it enough to keep him? I don't think it is.

I'm yet to hear how anyone expects to replace him if we don't re-sign him. He's not superfluous.

If someone wants to pay him than 7 x 9 then they can be my guest. He’ll be worth it for the first 3-4, then he won’t be

 

[MinJaBen]

If someone wants to pay him than 7 x 9 then they can be my guest. He’ll be worth it for the first 3-4, then he won’t be

Well, what if we just offer 8 x 8.2? He’d make 2.6 M more than the other offer over the two contracts, which may be more than he’d get for a single year at the end of the 7 year contract.

 

[cptjeff]

If someone wants to pay him than 7 x 9 then they can be my guest. He’ll be worth it for the first 3-4, then he won’t be

He's worth substantially more than 9m for those first 4 years. He's a 12m guy for those years. Maybe he's a 6m guy by the end, but he won't be a 4th liner by any means.

But you're also thinking in prices from 5 or 10 years ago. Do I think that these numbers are getting insane, and that teams are bilking the fans? Sure. But we're a year away from what's expected to be a pretty large jump in the cap, and that is absolutely priced into what free agents like Guentzel will be asking for.

You will never get a UFA player of the caliber of Guentzel for 10m or less in this era unless they discount. It simply will not ever happen, and you need to come to terms with that. Aho is just short of a $10m player with a discount, and Guentzel will be asking for something in that range or more. $7.56m is an utter joke. He will not be signing for that, or anything remotely close to it.

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

He's worth substantially more than 9m for those first 4 years. He's a 12m guy for those years. Maybe he's a 6m guy by the end, but he won't be a 4th liner by any means.

But you're also thinking in prices from 5 years ago. Do I think that these numbers are getting insane, and that teams are bilking the fans? Sure. But we're a year away from what's expected to be a pretty large jump in the cap, and that is absolutely priced into what free agents like Guentzel will be asking for.

You will never get a UFA player of the caliber of Guentzel for 10m or less in this era unless they discount. It simply will not ever happen, and you need to come to terms with that. Aho is just short of a $10m player, and Guentzel will be asking for something in that range or more. $7.56m is an utter joke. He will not be signing for that, or anything remotely close to it.

Guentzel has never broken 90 points, why in the world would he ever be worth 12 million per? You should have at least 1 season of 100 points to get that level of pay. He has had the pace for 90 twice but can’t stay healthy. Man guentzel is great but he isn’t a top 20 player in the league deserving of a 8 figure annual salary. I welcome JG to go elsewhere if some team wants to pay him 10 million a year, needless to say 12.

Health concerns, never reached 90 points, and going to be 30 before the deal starts. Just not worth 70+ million. Debatable if he is worth 64 million

 

[cptjeff]

Guentzel has never broken 90 points, why in the world would he ever be worth 12 million per? He has had the pace twice but can’t stay healthy. Man guentzel is great but he isn’t a top 20 player in the league deserving of a 8 figure annual salary. I welcome JG to go elsewhere if some team wants to pay him 10 million a year, needless to say 12. Yea dougies offer was given the joke title too.

Guentzel is near identical statistically to Aho, who took a deal a hair shy of $10 in what was widely acknowledged to be a bit of a discount. Guentzel is signing his deal a year later, much closer to the moment when the cap is expected to jump by a significant percentage, and with competitive bidding from other teams, rather than negotiating with a single team.

Seriously, contract values have gone up significantly from when Dougie signed his contract. Again, you are thinking in terms of what contracts were worth 5-10 years ago, not what contracts are worth now.

If you think he's signing for anything starting in an 8, much less a 7, you are a lunatic. Prices have gone up. It's coming out of our pockets. Either stop buying tickets, beer, and jerseys or get over it and start to account for it in your valuation of players.

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

Guentzel is near identical statistically to Aho, who took a deal a hair shy of $10 in what was widely acknowledged to be a bit of a discount. Guentzel is signing his deal a year later, much closer to the moment when the cap is expected to jump by a significant percentage, and with competitive bidding from other teams, rather than negotiating with a single team.

Seriously, contract values have gone up significantly from when Dougie signed his contract. Again, you are thinking in terms of what contracts were worth 5-10 years ago, not what contracts are worth now.

Im not though. What other winger is getting 10+ million at age 30 for 7 years and never touched 90? Or the equivalent over 11% of the cap? I’ll wait. Heck I’ll settle for a 28-29 year old winger get the that much without touching 90. Then factor in this isnt a team paying the “suck tax.”

Aho is 2.5 years younger and a center so, poor comparison

The best comparison I can find would be Duchene ( bad center comparison) who got over 9% of the cap at age 28. He lasted 5 years on his and was bought out. That would be the equivalent of a 8.592 million aav at a 87.5 million cap. That would equate to a 7.833 aav 8 year deal. That is without considering JG will be 2 years older so any more consistent production argument is lost to his age would decrease the value of the deal. So my number isn’t a joke when in comparison.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

Is it enough to keep him? I don't think it is.

I'm yet to hear how anyone expects to replace him if we don't re-sign him. He's not superfluous.

While not necessary superfluous, it's fair to note that from that Dec 12 players only meeting until March 9th (before Guentzel's 1st game with Carolina), the Canes were the best team in the NHL over that stretch and had a .743 points % over 37 games.

So they had been playing at a 122 point pace without Guetnzel. Even if I look at the full season to that point, they were playing at a 108 point pace. I wouldn't call him superfluous, but let's not act like the team will be in trouble if they lost him either.

Guentzel was acquired for 1 thing, the playoffs.

With all the free agents, the team isn't going to be the same team next year with or without Guentzel so it's hard to predict how they would replace him, or any of the other free agents because it's a bigger picture. I'm confident that they'll figure something out regardless, and if it's not working, they'll make moves like they frequently do.

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

Looking at contract max for Guentzel

9 million x 5, 10.28%, 45 total
8.5 x 6, 9.7%, 51 total
8 x 7, 9%, 56 total
7.5 x 8, 8.5%, 60 total

Looking at wingers, 35 of them have an above 8% cap hit and the vast majority of them are younger than Guentzel right now and much younger when signing their big deal.

Cap hit percentage is how comps are made. This deals seem to fit in nicely with the rest of the league without taking much of a discount due to age.

 

[NotOpie]

My guess is that a trade is more in line with how the Canes will fill any gap given my belief Guentzel will price himself out of this market. If you peruse the UFA forwards available, there's no real replacement.

I do believe there are a lot of moving parts with regard to any potential Jake re-signing - Necas, Jarvis, Drury extensions most importantly. My guess is there is one last effort to sign one or both of Skjei and Pesce to shorter term deals....but the dollars might preclude that regardless.

Gonna be an interesting few days prior to the draft.

 

[jiitu]

I could believe, TT could take long, but cheaper contract and I would prefer hom instead of Necas, who is great player, but at the same time bit irresponsible for defence direction. I believe, Necas is simply too expensive for right worth. I think this time he really will want his money and go after it. And he has the right and i think its not that bad for canes especially if can resign Jake.

I wish really also to resign Skej, Marty and Chat. Jarvis is not gonna come cheap either but hopefully would be ready for some sort of bridge.

Good arguments with Jake to both direction. After those arguments maybe some 8x8.25 would be good effort, maybe some more but I also agree that 8x9+ is too much at least. Most probably someone will be ready to offer him way too much and thqt will not happen. Not least Pittsburgh, especialy with current GM. But with 8 years deal and tempting with contender team, canes could have some chances, we will see. Maybe.

 

[moses malone 12]

Guentzel has never broken 90 points, why in the world would he ever be worth 12 million per? You should have at least 1 season of 100 points to get that level of pay. He has had the pace for 90 twice but can’t stay healthy. Man guentzel is great but he isn’t a top 20 player in the league deserving of a 8 figure annual salary. I welcome JG to go elsewhere if some team wants to pay him 10 million a year, needless to say 12.

Health concerns, never reached 90 points, and going to be 30 before the deal starts. Just not worth 70+ million. Debatable if he is worth 64 million

dundon will pay if we win the cup this year. book it.

 

[Svechhammer]

We finally get an elite playmaker and scorer and you're already talking about letting him walk because he might want a big contract?

My goodness, you have a roster like ours and a front office like ours (extremely good at filling out the margins with bargain bin adds) just so that you can bring in an elite level player like this, pay him top dollar, and be great in the long term.

I mean I remember when people thought the Jordan Staal contract would be a terrible thing for the team by the time it was in it's last couple years, and that ended up being a complete nothingburger because of the rising cap. Exact same thing would be the case if you give Guentzel what he deserves.

Quite frankly we deserve to see everything start to unravel if we are too f***ing cheap to pay him market value this off-season.