F Alexis Lafreniere - Rimouski Oceanic, QMJHL (2020 Draft)

[Killerjas]

How many games are there left? Could Alexis get to 100 points?

 

[aigledefeu]

How many games are there left? Could Alexis get to 100 points?

9 games to play, he could hit 90 pts but he would need to have 3ppg until the end of the year to reach 100 points.

 

[93LEAFS]

According to my software the season he is having right now is equivalent to a 60-60-72-132 season on his draft eligible year (with equivalent linemates), could be more if he were to be playing with better ones, with good linemates (just good, not very good ones) on his draft eligible year it would be equivalent to 60-62-80-142 season.

Yeah, my guess though is that doesn’t happen for a couple reasons. I find a lot of projections like that can inflate the numbers of late vs early birthdays (look at Tavares projected numbers). The other issue is that most 16 year olds (especially late birthdays) see significant ice-time increases as they get older which is built into projection models (as we don’t have reliable TOI stats). A guy who walks in and gets first line minutes, won’t see this effect.

Lafreniere is talented enough to prove me wrong on this. He’s clearly an elite talent.

 

[ProspectsFanatic]

Yeah, my guess though is that doesn’t happen for a couple reasons. I find a lot of projections like that can inflate the numbers of late vs early birthdays (look at Tavares projected numbers). The other issue is that most 16 year olds (especially late birthdays) see significant ice-time increases as they get older which is built into projection models (as we don’t have reliable TOI stats). A guy who walks in and gets first line minutes, won’t see this effect.

Lafreniere is talented enough to prove me wrong on this. He’s clearly an elite talent.

The projection does take into account the late birthday and the ice-time as well. I still somewhat doubt he will get those type of numbers since with any type of small injury or moments of lack of motivation it will make it very hard to average 2ppg every night, he might also be over-performing right now which are inflating the numbers. But you never know, he may just be too good for the league when reaching that age. Look at Heponiemi numbers right now, maybe Lafraniere could do similar numbers a year or so younger.

 

[93LEAFS]

The projection does take into account the late birthday and the ice-time as well. I still somewhat doubt he will get those type of numbers since with any type of small injury or moments of lack of motivation it will make it very hard to average 2ppg every night, he might also be over-performing right now which are inflating the numbers. But you never know, he may just be too good for the league when reaching that age. Look at Heponiemi numbers right now, maybe Lafraniere could do similar numbers a year or so younger.

Yeah, I assumed there was an age adjustment.

Just wondering how are you tracking ice-time? As far as I know there is no publicly vailable source that tracks it. Most seem to be using estimates based on tools created in the 90’s, which are better than nothing but not fully reliable.

 

[ProspectsFanatic]

Yeah, I assumed there was an age adjustment.

Just wondering how are you tracking ice-time? As far as I know there is no public ally available source that tracks it. Most seem to be using estimates based on tools created in the 90’s, which are better than nothing but not fully reliable.

I don't enter the exact ice-time since as you noted we don't have the information available, so instead I look at the point production, particularly PP production, in comparison with the depth chart of the organization he is playing on to make the best assumption. I then put the player within a certain group; 1st line minutes, 1st/2nd in between, 2nd line, etc. There is also an option of full ice time which is superior to 1st line which I rarely use. So the variable isn't perfectly representative, but since so many variables are also being factored in in the final score, possibly being slightly off on a variable of that sort does not affect the final score in any significative way.

 

[markrander87]

 

[Killerjas]

Seems like a humble guy, not cocky whatsoever. Anyone who is closer to Alexis who can say whether his attitude is good?

Please not have the personality of Shinkaruk...

 

[schnapshot]

Seems like a humble guy, not cocky whatsoever. Anyone who is closer to Alexis who can say whether his attitude is good?

Please not have the personality of Shinkaruk...

What’s up with Shinkaruk?

Lafreniere had an interview on TV last year based on his Midget AAA season and he seems like a grounded guy. Wants to get better, very demanding of himself, the kind of stuff you like to see about a young prospect.

 

[93LEAFS]

What’s up with Shinkaruk?

He had an interview on TV last year based on his Midget AAA season and he seems like a grounded guy. Wants to get better, very demanding of himself, the guy of stuff you like to see about a young prospect.

Disliked by teammates, viewed as an A-hole and self centered.

 

[schnapshot]

Disliked by teammates, viewed as an A-hole and self centered.

Source?

 

[93LEAFS]

Source?

Don’t have one, but that’s what people meant when they said “character concerns” or bad interview at the draft.

This is about Shinkaruk, I have no idea about Lafreniere.

 

[Emerz]

Scored his 40th goal tonight, has 8 games left in the regular season after this one, 50 is a possibility.

 

[Mike Mike Caron]

Scored his 40th goal tonight, has 8 games left in the regular season after this one, 50 is a possibility.

First 16 years old to score 40 goals since Sid.

 

[Adonis Creed]

41 now... absolute 5 vs 5 MAESTRO. Rimouski is now 2nd....prolly top 5 youngest team in CHL too lol..

When is Colten Ellis draftable...great goalie prospect

 

[Habs76]

41 now... absolute 5 vs 5 MAESTRO. Rimouski is now 2nd....prolly top 5 youngest team in CHL too lol..

When is Colten Ellis draftable...great goalie prospect

Ellis is eligible next year

 

[Breakfast of Champs]

First 16 years old to score 40 goals since Sid.

one more and he ties Lecavalier as a 16 year old, and the top 3 in the past 30 years would then all be from the Oceanic

 

[Artorius Horus T]

This kid is going to be something truly special, i think its a no brainer.
Not his goals, points alone, but how he plays, me like a lot

 

[InTkachukWeTrust]

Really hope Montreal doesn’t get this kid

 

[The Great Weal]

Really hope Montreal doesn’t get this kid

We would trade him for Abdelkader.

 

[InTkachukWeTrust]

We would trade him for Abdelkader.

At least you’d have the money to sign him haha

 

[The Great Weal]

At least you’d have the money to sign him haha

At this rate, the Habs have enough cap space to buy the Sens.

 

[newfy]

Saw Bob Mackenzie actually tweeted something about him. Its weird that hes doing this well, is so young, but isnt getting coverage at all or mentioned on TSN. He could make the world junior team next year, 2 years before his draft and still no hype from the media. I expect that will change next year because of the season he is having. Lack of attention is probably because he passed on getting exceptional status

 

[Fogelhund]

Saw Bob Mackenzie actually tweeted something about him. Its weird that hes doing this well, is so young, but isnt getting coverage at all or mentioned on TSN. He could make the world junior team next year, 2 years before his draft and still no hype from the media. I expect that will change next year because of the season he is having. Lack of attention is probably because he passed on getting exceptional status

Well... to be fair, he is THREE drafts away from now, and the media doesn't have much to benefit as of yet, in hyping people to watch the draft lottery and draft itself, that far in advance. But, guys like Bob McKenzie have been tweeting about him, since late 2016 I think. Not frequently or anything, but he has had mentions. THREE drafts away, is a lifetime in the hockey world, but the hype will certainly begin, probably starting to build up steam about a year from now, and then taking off, after the 2019 draft year.

 

[schnapshot]

Lack of attention is probably because he passed on getting exceptional status

Maybe. I remember Veleno getting tons of TSN hype right before he got his exceptional status. Yet his 16 yo season was nothing compared Lafreniere’s...