Speculation: Acq./Rost. Bldg./Cap/Lines etc. Part LXXVI (Winning...MEH)

[Hivemind]

I love Alzner, but we as Caps fans (myself included) definitely overrate him.

 

[Dr John Carlson]

If NHL teams are lining up to sign Alzner at 6 million, I would happily let them take him. He isn't a 6 million dollar player, especially not on a long-term deal.

 

[txpd]

I love Alzner, but we as Caps fans (myself included) definitely overrate him.

overrate him how? how is he rated and how should he be rated in your opinion?

 

[twabby]

its not worth arguing about, buddy, but you are lost on Karl Alzner. He does not need and is not being carried by another defenseman.
the funny things is that nhl teams would lineup to sign Alzner at that price.

He doesn't need to be carried to contribute, sure. But Niskanen has elevated the perception of Alzner greatly IMO and that's what I meant by "carrying" him so I should have been more clear. Alzner is probably best suited as a second pairing defensive D and first unit PKer and those absolutely are not worth $5.5M+ long term, especially when alternatives are out there for much cheaper.

People forget that Niskanen was one of the best defensive defensemen in the league before he got to Washington while Alzner was very middling in that regard. Meanwhile, Alzner has consistently been non-existent in the offensive zone while Niskanen has had mixed success offensively throughout his career. That's why I attribute most of the pairing's defensive success to Niskanen rather than Alzner.

This is part of the reason I wanted to see Alzner apart from Niskanen to see what sort of defensive impact he has on a player like John Carlson who is certainly no Matt Niskanen when it comes to defense.

 

[txpd]

If NHL teams are lining up to sign Alzner at 6 million, I would happily let them take him. He isn't a 6 million dollar player, especially not on a long-term deal.

And...can you think of a top 4 shut down defender defenseman that you could get that is both as good as Alzner and significantly cheaper. accent on that you could get.

 

[trick9]

I love Alzner, but we as Caps fans (myself included) definitely overrate him.

Agreed.

Although most people propably just agrees that this team is not going to win without him. The LHD depth behind him is non-existant for the future, and the LHD FA market is absolutely brutal. Lucas Johansen is a bright spot but i don't expect him to be a major performer at the NHL level for atleast 3 more years. Jonas Siegenthaler is a bit of a wild-card but i'm not sure if he has top-4 potential.

 

[g00n]

overrate him how? how is he rated and how should he be rated in your opinion?

http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showthread.php?t=2122549&highlight=alzner

some light reading

 

[trick9]

He doesn't need to be carried to contribute, sure. But Niskanen has elevated the perception of Alzner greatly IMO and that's what I meant by "carrying" him so I should have been more clear. Alzner is probably best suited as a second pairing defensive D and first unit PKer and those absolutely are not worth $5.5M+ long term, especially when alternatives are out there for much cheaper.

People forget that Niskanen was one of the best defensive defensemen in the league before he got to Washington while Alzner was very middling in that regard. That's why I attribute most of the pairing's defensive success to Niskanen rather than Alzner.

This is part of the reason I wanted to see Alzner apart from Niskanen to see what sort of defensive impact he has on a player like John Carlson who is certainly no Matt Niskanen when it comes to defense.

Most non-Caps fans actually saw Karl Alzner as one of the best defensive players in the league and Matt Niskanen as the solid two-way defender who caught tons of points in his FA year because Letang was out and the points were raining in because he got to play PP1 with Malkin and Crosby. Nobody thought of Niskanen as one of the best defensive D's in the league in his Penguins days.

 

[txpd]

He doesn't need to be carried to contribute, sure. But Niskanen has elevated the perception of Alzner greatly IMO and that's what I meant by "carrying" him so I should have been more clear. Alzner is probably best suited as a second pairing defensive D and first unit PKer and those absolutely are not worth $5.5M+ long term, especially when alternatives are out there for much cheaper.

People forget that Niskanen was one of the best defensive defensemen in the league before he got to Washington while Alzner was very middling in that regard. That's why I attribute most of the pairing's defensive success to Niskanen rather than Alzner.

best suited for the second pair. just to be clear on your definition of that. 1st pair is who you match up against Bergeron, Stamkos, McDavid, and so on. You would use Orlov rather than Alzner for that?

Or are you saying that 1st pair is an offensive pair and that you match up pair is the 2nd?

Is Carlson now going to carry Alzner?

Do you think Alzner could be reasonably replaced by a series of one year contract aging veterans like Hainsey?

 

[txpd]

http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showthread.php?t=2122549&highlight=alzner

some light reading

not sure those guys know what they are talking about. they are calling him a top pair d and so on. didn't see anyone on the first page at least that said he was overrated. they are not in the game, so what can they know. eh?

 

[g00n]

not sure those guys know what they are talking about. they are calling him a top pair d and so on. didn't see anyone on the first page at least that said he was overrated. they are not in the game, so what can they know. eh?

There are more caps fans on the later pages, yourself included. Just showing how people value him within a wide range.

 

[maybam]

I usually agree with twabby, but I think you are way off base on Alzner. He has been the Caps best and most consistent shutdown d man since he graduated from the bears. He is not someone who will ever put up points, but he eats minutes and almost always makes the most correct and safest decisions.

And I don't know what you are watching if you think Niskanen is somehow carrying Alzner. if anything Alzner has elevated every offensive D he has played with.

 

[twabby]

best suited for the second pair. just to be clear on your definition of that. 1st pair is who you match up against Bergeron, Stamkos, McDavid, and so on. You would use Orlov rather than Alzner for that?

No. Alzner's still better than Orlov.

Or are you saying that 1st pair is an offensive pair and that you match up pair is the 2nd?

Ideally, yes. This is how Chicago and San Jose deploy players like Burns/Clasic and Keith/Hjalmarsson to pretty good success.

Is Carlson now going to carry Alzner?

I'm interested to see how the pairing does. Carlson right now isn't set to carry anyone.

Do you think Alzner could be reasonably replaced by a series of one year contract aging veterans like Hainsey?

Yes, that's exactly my point. I don't really think Alzner is anything special other than being an iron-man which is notable but ultimately doesn't mean much when it comes to playoff success.

 

[Carlzner]

 

[Dr John Carlson]

And...can you think of a top 4 shut down defender defenseman that you could get that is both as good as Alzner and significantly cheaper. accent on that you could get.

A shut-down defender as good as him, probably not. But I wouldn't want to overpay significantly to keep him, especially not with who's coming off the books this offseason. If Alzner thinks he can get 6 mil per on the open market, I'd look to replace him with a cheaper two-way guy. That would probably have to come via trade because the defenseman FA crop looks somewhat weak outside of Shattenkirk.

 

[twabby]

Most non-Caps fans actually saw Karl Alzner as one of the best defensive players in the league and Matt Niskanen as the solid two-way defender who caught tons of points in his FA year because Letang was out and the points were raining in because he got to play PP1 with Malkin and Crosby. Nobody thought of Niskanen as one of the best defensive D's in the league in his Penguins days.

His perception was a two-way defender but he absolutely was (and still is) one of the strongest defensive defensemen if you look at the stats. It's yet another failing of the eye-test amongst fans because no one saw him as a great defensive player despite clearly being one by the numbers. His defense is often praised now (perhaps because his point totals dropped once coming to DC) but it's nothing new for him. It's not like Alzner flipped a switch in Niskanen's defensive game.

I usually agree with twabby, but I think you are way off base on Alzner. He has been the Caps best and most consistent shutdown d man since he graduated from the bears. He is not someone who will ever put up points, but he eats minutes and almost always makes the most correct and safest decisions.

And I don't know what you are watching if you think Niskanen is somehow carrying Alzner. if anything Alzner has elevated every offensive D he has played with.

He might make the safe plays, but that's not good enough as a first pairing defenseman. You need to be able to make good and dynamic plays, especially at a big price tag, and Alzner does not do this.

And the bolded statement is a tough sell considering Niskanen's even strength points per game took a nose-dive as soon as he arrived in Washington playing almost exclusively beside Alzner and because throughout his career, the Capitals have scored less while Alzner was on the ice than any regular defenseman.

 

[Ovechtrick89*]

Ovechkin forget your pizza

https://youtu.be/1rayBepKecQ

 

[Hivemind]

overrate him how? how is he rated and how should he be rated in your opinion?

Broadly speaking, Caps fans have largely called him a top pairing shutdown defender. They refer to Alzner as a defenseman they aren't afraid to match against the opponent's top forwards.

While there's merit that he has indeed filled that role for the Capitals, he has rarely thrived in it. And he's done better when other defensemen allowed him to slide into a lower role. For instance, Orpik's value in his first season in Washington wasn't that Orpik was excelling in a shutdown role (he wasn't), but that he allowed Alzner to get easier match-ups and perform better in that role.

To use a baseball analogy, Alzner is an inning eating starting pitcher. He's not your ace, and teams are going to score runs on him. He lacks the high end skill to be a significant playmaker (on either end of the ice), but at the same time he can skate plenty of minutes largely without disaster.

In order to really be worth the $6M rumors, he'd need to be able to produce better results against top competition. Unfortunately that hasn't been the case so far. This is especially true when you compare him to guys like Hjalmarsson ($4.1M), Vlasic ($4.25M), and Tanev ($4.45M).

Agreed.

Although most people propably just agrees that this team is not going to win without him. The LHD depth behind him is non-existant for the future, and the LHD FA market is absolutely brutal. Lucas Johansen is a bright spot but i don't expect him to be a major performer at the NHL level for atleast 3 more years. Jonas Siegenthaler is a bit of a wild-card but i'm not sure if he has top-4 potential.

Agreed with this. It would take some creative thinking in order to fill the vacuum he'd leave behind without hampering the team.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

A shut-down defender as good as him, probably not. But I wouldn't want to overpay significantly to keep him, especially not with who's coming off the books this offseason. If Alzner thinks he can get 6 mil per on the open market, I'd look to replace him with a cheaper two-way guy. That would probably have to come via trade because the defenseman FA crop looks somewhat weak outside of Shattenkirk.

So we lose Alzner AND we have to pony up to get a more affordable but probably not as good defensively replacement via a likely costly trade?

Sounds like a lose-lose.

 

[Hivemind]

So we lose Alzner AND we have to pony up to get a more affordable but probably not as good defensively replacement via a likely costly trade?

Sounds like a lose-lose.

Consider that overspending on Alzner means they have to subtract from elsewhere on the roster.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Subtract what...$1.5 mil worth of cap space? $6 mil vs. 4.5.

If it's that vs having to go trade for a proven guy who can capably fill his role, I'd stroke the check myself. You're trying to trade for a good player and contract in a thin market.

Sign Alzner and this nonsense can go away.

 

[txpd]

Yes, that's exactly my point. I don't really think Alzner is anything special other than being an iron-man which is notable but ultimately doesn't mean much when it comes to playoff success.

 

[Hivemind]

Subtract what...$1.5 mil worth of cap space? $6 mil vs. 4.5.

If it's that vs having to go trade for a proven guy who can capably fill his role, I'd stroke the check myself. You're trying to trade for a good player and contract in a thin market.

Sign Alzner and this nonsense can go away.

That same logic applies to whichever other position you have to shave that $1.5M budget away from. For instance, first line right wing.

 

[txpd]

That same logic applies to whichever other position you have to shave that $1.5M budget away from. For instance, first line right wing.

my basic rule on this is that legit top 4 defensemen are hard to get. they are very hard and rare to trade for. they are hard to get via UFA market and then they are very expensive.

If Orpik is over the hill and traded for not much to move his contract this off season, and Alzner leaves as a UFA. Who plays defense on this team? Legit top 4 defensemen.

There are a lot of teams out there that need top 4 defensemen. More than one. The Caps have 4 good one's. Letting Alzner go would very likely be a big step backward.

Unless you think Alzner can be replaced by a year to year Scott Hannan type.

 

[Dr John Carlson]

So we lose Alzner AND we have to pony up to get a more affordable but probably not as good defensively replacement via a likely costly trade?

Sounds like a lose-lose.

Not as good defensively but better in transition, which this team needs more of from the backend. Use the saved cap space to improve other areas of the roster. Seems reasonable.

Again this assumes Alzner is at 6 million + per year on a long-term contract. If he's willing to re-sign at ~5 mil per then I'd do that.