Speculation: Acq./Rost. Bldg./Cap/Lines etc. Part LXXVI (Winning...MEH)

[Ovechkins Wodka]

Looking at twabby stats makes Justin Williams look really good. High volume of shots from inside the net. A vet like him it's only a matter of time they start going in.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

would you trade burakovsky for a rental?

Dumba isn't a rental, but no.

 

[Hivemind]

Looking at twabby stats makes Justin Williams look really good. High volume of shots from inside the net. A vet like him it's only a matter of time they start going in.

His game the other night where had a half dozen great chances, and even a goal waved off because of the clock, was enough to restore some of my faith in JDub. Hopefully there's more of that ahead and he starts potting them.

 

[Alexander the Gr8]

corsica.hockey has average shot distances but sadly no heat map or location data. Adding the shot distance column:

Player Name|Shots on goal|Missed shots|Blocked shots|Total shot attempts|% of shots on goal|% of shots missed|% of shots blocked|Avg. shot distance
BACKSTROM, NICKLAS|52|12|11|75|69.33%|16.00%|14.67%|30.12
JOHANSSON, MARCUS|43|12|17|72|59.72%|16.67%|23.61%|24.67
OSHIE, TJ|37|15|8|60|61.67%|25.00%|13.33%|23.67
OVECHKIN, ALEX|95|47|50|192|49.48%|24.48%|26.04%|33.65
BEAGLE, JAY|36|7|5|48|75.00%|14.58%|10.42%|25.69
BURAKOVSKY, ANDRE|40|17|30|87|45.98%|19.54%|34.48%|29.32
WINNIK, DANIEL|12|6|2|20|60.00%|30.00%|10.00%|30.17
KUZNETSOV, EVGENY|40|17|28|85|47.06%|20.00%|32.94%|30.27
CONNOLLY, BRETT|22|5|8|35|62.86%|14.29%|22.86%|23.93
CARLSON, JOHN|59|39|34|132|44.70%|29.55%|25.76%|51.48
ORLOV, DMITRY|39|17|20|76|51.32%|22.37%|26.32%|44.04
SCHMIDT, NATE|24|10|17|51|47.06%|19.61%|33.33%|48.85
NISKANEN, MATT|47|23|39|109|43.12%|21.10%|35.78%|48.21
ORPIK, BROOKS|26|9|20|55|47.27%|16.36%|36.36%|52.37
WILLIAMS, JUSTIN|52|30|21|103|50.49%|29.13%|20.39%|26.47
ELLER, LARS|30|17|15|62|48.39%|27.42%|24.19%|27.09
ALZNER, KARL|27|10|16|53|50.94%|18.87%|30.19%|50.51
SANFORD, ZACHARY|17|6|9|32|53.13%|18.75%|28.13%|28.71
WILSON, TOM|25|5|13|43|58.14%|11.63%|30.23%|26.11

No surprise to see the likes of Oshie, Beagle, and Johansson near the top of the list and it's not really a surprise to see Ovechkin as the forward whose shots are farthest away. Even during his career years Ovechkin's shots tend to be from distance because, well, he shoots from everywhere.

This is great, again very good work. By looking at the % of shot missed and relating it to distance, it really helps defining our shooters. This is my analysis on each player's shooting tendencies, ranked from closest to farthest average shot distance:

-Oshie: Snipes the glass from close range. Nothing that we didn't know from the eye test, his shot leaves a lot to be desired.
-Connolly: Not a bad shooter, tends to get blocked despite shooting from close range.
-Johansson: See Connolly, but with twice as many shot attempts.
-Beagle: Beags is our best net front presence, hence the very high quality of shots.
-Wilson: Shin pad sniper, gets blocked 30% of the time.
-Williams: Very inaccurate, misses the net far too much.
-Eller: One of our worst shooters, he misses as much as anyone from close range and never pulls the trigger from far out.
-Sanford: Pretty accurate but shoots from a good distance and therefore allows the defense to block his shots. If we bring him back from Hershey, he needs to muscle his way to prime scoring areas and the goals will come. He has the size and strength to do so.
-Burakovsky: All he does is hit shin pads and when he doesn't, it's high and wide. In terms of power, his wrist shot is absolutely insane, but even I can aim better than that. No wonder he hasn't scored in 20+ games.
-Winnik: Never gets blocked but misses the net a ton. He's shooting the puck from far out and from bad angles it seems. He's our #1 player when it comes to low percentage shots. He has a very low sample size, but it won't get any bigger with the little ice time he has.
-Kuznetsov: Our worst shooting forward next to Eller, nothing else need to be said. Everything has been awful about Kuzy's game for the past 50 games. Shooting is no exception.
-Ovechkin: Easily our best shooter overall, nothing to complain about. He has more shots on goal than any of his teammates in shot attempts except Williams. He tends to get blocked quite often and misses the net from time to time, but no player in the league receives more attention from the opposition when it comes to shooting.

-Orlov: Unsuprisingly a very good shooter, our best shooter on defense. His shot distance is right between a forward's and a defensemen's, it's good to have him join the rush from time to time.
-Niskanen: His shot has been way off the mark this year, which is surprising. Last year when Carlson went down and Nisky was running the PP, it seemed like he could get the puck through traffic with ease for a tip-in by Oshie. I'm not sure if those count as shot attempts though. He likes to shoot the puck, always a plus
-Schmidt: Same as Niskanen, but with 50% less shot attempts. He doesn't have a Niscannon, I understand if he's uncertain about getting it through traffic.
-Alzner: Like everything about Alzner's game, he gets the puck on net in simple fashion for a rebound. He doesn't actually try to score, he just places it on goal and sometimes hits the back of the net. Playing the left side of the ice at all times, he rarely has the opportunity to take a one timer, which is unfortunate.
-Carlson: Awful, nothing else to be said. He tries to shoot all the time but his shots are all over the place. He should look for deflections instead, like yesterday.
-Orpik: He might as well stop shooting, he's never dangerous with the puck on his stick.

Missing:
-Backstrom: Please shoot more #19.

 

[Hivemind]

I'd caution against reading too much into the data for a few reasons.

First off, some of the bottom six guys have pretty small samples. Winnik has a mere 20 shot attempts, so each shot represents a 5% swing in his stats. Missing just 2 shots would drop him 7 spots on the list. While I haven't done any studies to see where shot rates stabilize, my gut guess is that I wouldn't count on players with fewer than 60 or 70 attempts having stable shot numbers.

Secondly, usage can skew things a bit. While powerplay numbers are important, how a player is used on the powerplay can also impact their numbers.

There's plenty to be gleaned, but take it with a grain of salt for some of the players with lower quantities of attempts and specialized roles.

 

[Revelation]

Aside from not being better than Orlov Dumba is a righty and would be behind Carlson and Niskanen. Might as well call up Bowey he may well be as good as Dumba we just don't know it yet.

 

[HecticGlow]

Aside from not being better than Orlov Dumba is a righty and would be behind Carlson and Niskanen. Might as well call up Bowey he may well be as good as Dumba we just don't know it yet.

I really don't think we need to change the D at this point - we're still one of the best teams in GA (with strong goaltending too). I think the problem is more that we pass a lot to the point men to shoot - we're too scared of losing possession to make the pass to the guy closer to the net, because opposing teams are collapsing in front of the goaltender.

I think what we really need is our D to actually join the rush and be that fourth guy more often - if the Schmidt/Orpik pairing can make this work, there's absolutely no reason the other two pairs can't as well. Especially with a Niskanen-Orlov pairing, I'm hopeful Orlov will get involved more offensively knowing one of our best defensive players (especially at 2-on-1s) is protecting the net.

 

[txpd]

Dumba isn't a rental, but no.

Dumba would likely be picked in the ex draft. thus making him a rental. The Caps are still going to protect Niskanen, Carlson and Alzner. If Dumba is better than Orlov he jumps into the Orlov slot for being first choice on the Caps unprotected list.

 

[txpd]

-Orpik: He might as well stop shooting, he's never dangerous with the puck on his stick..

A lot of this team analysis was overly harsh. Even Oshie who is awesome leaves a lot to be desired.

Did you watch the Buffalo game? Did you see Beagle's goal and where the puck game from?

 

[g00n]

I don't think we add D other than maybe a depth guy. Maybe. Probably a bottom 6 forward.

Not a groundbreaking theory, I know.

 

[g00n]

A lot of this team analysis was overly harsh. Even Oshie who is awesome leaves a lot to be desired.

Did you watch the Buffalo game? Did you see Beagle's goal and where the puck game from?

Oshie has great hands. So good they more than make up for his Bambi on ice skating

 

[txpd]

Oshie has great hands. So good they more than make up for his Bambi on ice skating

nobody's perfect. I was referring to the comment about his shot leaving a lot to be desired.

 

[g00n]

nobody's perfect. I was referring to the comment about his shot leaving a lot to be desired.

so was I

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Dumba would likely be picked in the ex draft. thus making him a rental. The Caps are still going to protect Niskanen, Carlson and Alzner. If Dumba is better than Orlov he jumps into the Orlov slot for being first choice on the Caps unprotected list.

It's always the worst case scenario to make your case. We have no idea what will happen with Alzner.

Obviously you don't make that move just to lose him.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

I don't think we add D other than maybe a depth guy. Maybe. Probably a bottom 6 forward.

Not a groundbreaking theory, I know.

Sounds familiar. GMGM approves.

 

[amjay13]

Unrelated to anything currently being discussed but at this point I think it is safe to say Wilson's offensive game is not going to develop. I'm a huge fan of his style of play but decent 3rd liner is going to be his ceiling. Perhaps he has a year where he nets 10 goals but that'll be about it. 1 goal in 24 games this year getting more minutes than before. Disappointing given his 7-16-23 line last year. Had he built on that I'd be far more encouraged.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

What he needs is a bad team who will gift him a top-6 spot and let him sink or swim.


Vegas anyone?

 

[twabby]

I could see trading Wilson to Vegas for some cap relief (depending on if McPhee would be interested in him) but there's no way he will be selected by Vegas in the expansion draft when Grubauer, Orlov, and Schmidt will likely be available and offer far more on the ice.

 

[txpd]

It's always the worst case scenario to make your case. We have no idea what will happen with Alzner.

Obviously you don't make that move just to lose him.

no, we don't know. you would think that maclellan knows though. if he thinks he is losing alzner, dumba is then replacing alzner and not upgrading orlov. which is see as a step backwards.

if I have a choice, I choose alzner over dumba.

continuing with that path, if the caps figure to resign alzner, then dumba is as I said, likely to be the chosen player in the ex draft and we are back to my point.

 

[txpd]

Unrelated to anything currently being discussed but at this point I think it is safe to say Wilson's offensive game is not going to develop......1 goal in 24 games this year getting more minutes than before..

I would agree with this except Burakovsky as two goals in the first game and nothing since. Williams has 2 goals. Eller has 2 goals. I am not sure that Wilson's lack of finish is a result of his lack of game or if its more like what is going on with the other 3 who have all developed an offensive game.

He was directly responsible for opening up the passing lane on Beagle's goal in the last game as a for instance.

Maybe he is not going to make it offensively but to conclude that would make case that Burakovsky was a flash in the pan and Williams is over the hill.

 

[Alexander the Gr8]

A lot of this team analysis was overly harsh. Even Oshie who is awesome leaves a lot to be desired.

Did you watch the Buffalo game? Did you see Beagle's goal and where the puck game from?

Yep, I saw it. It was a shot pass on Beagle's tape, a very nice play. Orpik can't shoot to score though. He's got 3 goals in the 3 seasons he's played for us.

The truth is that the team is not very good at shooting. Our shooting numbers from last year's hot streak appear to be a fluke now.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

no, we don't know. you would think that maclellan knows though. if he thinks he is losing alzner, dumba is then replacing alzner and not upgrading orlov. which is see as a step backwards.

if I have a choice, I choose alzner over dumba.

continuing with that path, if the caps figure to resign alzner, then dumba is as I said, likely to be the chosen player in the ex draft and we are back to my point.

Dumba would not be "replacing" Alzner. Therefor discussions about who you would prefer are pointless. I'd prefer to keep Alzner too. GMBM may well have an extension already negotiated, or Alzner may very well go to UFA and then he may be lost. My dream scenario is Alzner is happy, doesn't want to move no matter what, goes to UFA status which allows us to not protect him and protect someone else, he then resigns AFTER. Would require a serious handshake deal and Alzner refusing other offers that WOULD come.

Dumba's comparable role is Orlov and that's who's role he would assume if he were acquired and Orlov were gone via the expansion. Dumba would assume Alzner's retention spot and that's about it in the Alzner vs Dumba discussion.

 

[txpd]

Yep, I saw it. It was a shot pass on Beagle's tape, a very nice play. Orpik can't shoot to score though. He's got 3 goals in the 3 seasons he's played for us.

The truth is that the team is not very good at shooting. Our shooting numbers from last year's hot streak appear to be a fluke now.

iirc one of Burakovsky's goals came on a similar play by Orpik. The comment I was referring to was that there is no danger when the puck is on Oprik's stick. That's false. As recently as the last game the puck came off his stick and ended up in the back of the net.

No...he doesn't score. That wasn't to point being made

 

[txpd]

Dumba would not be "replacing" Alzner. Therefor discussions about who you would prefer are pointless. I'd prefer to keep Alzner too. GMBM may well have an extension already negotiated, or Alzner may very well go to UFA and then he may be lost. My dream scenario is Alzner is happy, doesn't want to move no matter what, goes to UFA status which allows us to not protect him and protect someone else, he then resigns AFTER. Would require a serious handshake deal and Alzner refusing other offers that WOULD come.

Dumba's comparable role is Orlov and that's who's role he would assume if he were acquired and Orlov were gone via the expansion. Dumba would assume Alzner's retention spot and that's about it in the Alzner vs Dumba discussion.

ok...meanwhile I find it much more plausible that Alzner will sign a long term extension in January or Februay. If he is unsigned as of the ex draft, he is not coming back. my guess. but everyone should have dreams

 

[RandyHolt]

I can't be the only one that thinks Trotz is not the best coach to make Wilson an offensive dynamo. Look at the past half season of Kuz and Bura and heck even Orlov, and adjust expectations accordingly for Willie. Also hurting him is that we are competing on a team spent to the cap; he cannot even get a sniff on a PP in all but one game a year.

I am no fool and realize his limitations, but my point may still stand. Embracing the defensive side of the game keeps Barry all fuzzy and warm so that is what he focuses on.

That one game a year on the PP? late in game 6 vs Pitt when the season was on the line