Speculation: Acq./Rost. Bldg./Cap/Lines etc. Part LXXVI (Winning...MEH)

[Jags]

I'd caution against reading too much into the data for a few reasons.

First off, some of the bottom six guys have pretty small samples. Winnik has a mere 20 shot attempts, so each shot represents a 5% swing in his stats. Missing just 2 shots would drop him 7 spots on the list. While I haven't done any studies to see where shot rates stabilize, my gut guess is that I wouldn't count on players with fewer than 60 or 70 attempts having stable shot numbers.

Secondly, usage can skew things a bit. While powerplay numbers are important, how a player is used on the powerplay can also impact their numbers.

There's plenty to be gleaned, but take it with a grain of salt for some of the players with lower quantities of attempts and specialized roles.

This, especially when it comes to our defenders.

Being down on Carlson's shot stats, for example, doesn't take into account what it takes to shoot accurately from the point.

First of all, sometimes you're trying to miss; you're looking for the deflection or the bounce back from the boards.

Secondly, you're almost always shooting at a very small target because of all the moving obstacles in front of you. So you're shooting at a sliver of a fraction of a glimpse, hoping to (luckily) thread that needle or, again, to get a little help from a deflection.

And third, there's also the "you could kill someone" factor when taking those crazy slaps from the perimeter. So it's not just that you're consciously pulling it to try to score or increase the likelihood of a deflection, you're also trying not to hit anyone. Not only because blocked shots are a bummer, but also because you can really hurt people, especially your own guys that are less likely to see it coming..

Lots of fans just see the cannon blasts from the point and think they're less accurate because of the power and distance, or because John Carlson "sucks," but it's WAY more complicated than that. These aren't the one-timers Ovi fires from his office with no one in front of him and the goalie lurching to cover. This is firing into crowded areas where you routinely need help or luck to score at all.

 

[Ridley Simon]

I could see trading Wilson to Vegas for some cap relief (depending on if McPhee would be interested in him) but there's no way he will be selected by Vegas in the expansion draft when Grubauer, Orlov, and Schmidt will likely be available and offer far more on the ice.

You are supposing a lot. McPhee loves Wilson. So much so as to deal Forsberg to clear space for him. I think George would be sorely tempted to take Wilson.

Orlov is an RFA with negative George history
Grubauer is one of many many G options he will have
Schmidt is possible, but he may need young big F's with upside

 

[Ridley Simon]

I would agree with this except Burakovsky as two goals in the first game and nothing since. Williams has 2 goals. Eller has 2 goals. I am not sure that Wilson's lack of finish is a result of his lack of game or if its more like what is going on with the other 3 who have all developed an offensive game.

He was directly responsible for opening up the passing lane on Beagle's goal in the last game as a for instance.

Maybe he is not going to make it offensively but to conclude that would make case that Burakovsky was a flash in the pan and Williams is over the hill.

1 is not like the other 3.

Williams has proven everything there is to prove. Benefit of doubt.

Eller and Burakovsky have both had offensive seasons before this to date. Benefit of doubt.

Wilson has Tex mandated presason slot in top 9. Benefit of.....ah, nevermind.

 

[Ridley Simon]

I can't be the only one that thinks Trotz is not the best coach to make Wilson an offensive dynamo. Look at the past half season of Kuz and Bura and heck even Orlov, and adjust expectations accordingly for Willie. Also hurting him is that we are competing on a team spent to the cap; he cannot even get a sniff on a PP in all but one game a year.

I am no fool and realize his limitations, but my point may still stand. Embracing the defensive side of the game keeps Barry all fuzzy and warm so that is what he focuses on.

That one game a year on the PP? late in game 6 vs Pitt when the season was on the line

Your point is always..... It's All Barry's Fault.

Every post.

 

[Jags]

I can't be the only one that thinks Trotz is not the best coach to make Wilson an offensive dynamo.

When has a coach ever made someone an offensive dynamo? NHL players generally come to the league fully cooked. Sure, you might help a 20-goal guy get 30, but you're NEVER going to turn a 1-goal guy into "an offensive dynamo."

If you ever saw Wilson play prior to the NHL, you'd know that he always played a rough-and-tumble game, and his offensive upside very often came from the havoc he could create being physically superior to most guys around him. That's not true in the NHL. His offensive breakout happened in his third year in the OHL, which, frankly, very often doesn't translate into NHL success.

To succeed at the NHL level, he has to finely tune his offensive awareness. He can't just rely on being a bull in a china shop all the time. He has a good shot, good offensive instincts, and certainly the physical tools to succeed. And we HAVE seen him make significant strides on the forecheck and PK, so his game IS developing.

Most NHL players develop at a rate far more like Marcus Johansson's than Alex Ovechkin's. Look at where MoJo is today versus 4 years ago. He might be our best player so far this year, and he's gotten gradually better every year he's been in the league.

Wilson is 4 years younger with less offensive upside. Those of you hoping that Wilson was an undeveloped Milan Lucic or Cam Neely were deluding yourselves. He's not that guy. Never was. Yes, there's a chance that MAYBE he could end up scoring 20 goals, give or take. He could develop into a Ward/Brouwer type of guy, which would be great. But he could top out in the Chimera category -- more one-dimensional but still stalwart and valuable in his own way.

He was a first-rounder because he was a prototypical physical specimen. He's very much like Ovechkin in the way he's built, his zeal for the game, his physical style... All of that was absolutely NHL-ready. The rest was hope. The hope that he could find an impressive offensive gear at the NHL level, but that was far from a lock. His last year in Plymouth shocked everyone and profoundly affected his draft position. But that performance was way more about him clearly being a man among children than him being a future NHL superstar.

 

[amjay13]

When has a coach ever made someone an offensive dynamo? NHL players generally come to the league fully cooked. Sure, you might help a 20-goal guy get 30, but you're NEVER going to turn a 1-goal guy into "an offensive dynamo."

If you ever saw Wilson play prior to the NHL, you'd know that he always played a rough-and-tumble game, and his offensive upside very often came from the havoc he could create being physically superior to most guys around him. That's not true in the NHL. His offensive breakout happened in his third year in the OHL, which, frankly, very often doesn't translate into NHL success.

To succeed at the NHL level, he has to finely tune his offensive awareness. He can't just rely on being a bull in a china shop all the time. He has a good shot, good offensive instincts, and certainly the physical tools to succeed. And we HAVE seen him make significant strides on the forecheck and PK, so his game IS developing.

Most NHL players develop at a rate far more like Marcus Johansson's than Alex Ovechkin's. Look at where MoJo is today versus 4 years ago. He might be our best player so far this year, and he's gotten gradually better every year he's been in the league.

Wilson is 4 years younger with less offensive upside. Those of you hoping that Wilson was an undeveloped Milan Lucic or Cam Neely were deluding yourselves. He's not that guy. Never was. Yes, there's a chance that MAYBE he could end up scoring 20 goals, give or take. He could develop into a Ward/Brouwer type of guy, which would be great. But he could top out in the Chimera category -- more one-dimensional but still stalwart and valuable in his own way.

He was a first-rounder because he was a prototypical physical specimen. He's very much like Ovechkin in the way he's built, his zeal for the game, his physical style... All of that was absolutely NHL-ready. The rest was hope. The hope that he could find an impressive offensive gear at the NHL level, but that was far from a lock. His last year in Plymouth shocked everyone and profoundly affected his draft position. But that performance was way more about him clearly being a man among children than him being a future NHL superstar.

He was drafted prior to his last year in Plymouth. His draft year he went 9-18-27.

 

[Jags]

He was drafted prior to his last year in Plymouth. His draft year he went 9-18-27.

My memory isn't what it used to be. Sorry about that.

The fact remains that he stood out in the OHL because he was a man among boys. He was born with a hearty frame that he's always put to good use physically, and his offensive prowess in Plymouth was more a result of that than anything else. He never had much in the way of mesmerizing offensive skill, just a strong positional game and a quick, physical style that pays dividends when no one in your league can knock you off the puck.

He has to earn it in the NHL, so he struggles offensively. It remains to be seen if he has the intelligence, offensive IQ, and fortitude to overcome that.

 

[txpd]

1 is not like the other 3.

Williams has proven everything there is to prove. Benefit of doubt.

Eller and Burakovsky have both had offensive seasons before this to date. Benefit of doubt.

Wilson has Tex mandated presason slot in top 9. Benefit of.....ah, nevermind.

I'd like to see Wilson finish more. One game can make a big difference as seen with Williams last night.

Meanwhile, night in and night out Beagle's line is the most consistant on the team and Wilson is a prime part of that. I am certainly not ready to chuck him.

But then again, Ive been saying the Beagle should have been left alone to 3C and to use the cap space elsewhere.

 

[HecticGlow]

Wilson and Winnik are both overpaid relative to their roles, but broadly excel in those roles. Eller is a little overpaid for his role, but is seriously underperforming in it. His role is essentially the same as Wilson and Winnik - 4th line PKer - except he has less grit than them.

 

[Dr John Carlson]

Tom Wilson is on pace for 3 points. I wouldn't call that excelling in his role. His PKing is valuable to an extent but his offensive output probably makes him a net negative right now.

 

[hockeykicker]

Niskanen hurt and is not traveling to buffalo

 

[twabby]

Hopefully it's not long-term because it certainly looked like a concussion and who knows with those.

I'd guess:

27-74
44-9
4-88

Possibly replacing Chorney with Bowey/some other callup from Hershey. I wouldn't mind 44-88 staying together as the second pair and dropping Orlov to the third pair either.

Carlson needs to give a solid effort now that Niskanen is out.

 

[Alexander the Gr8]

Hopefully it's not long-term because it certainly looked like a concussion and who knows with those.

I'd guess:

27-74
44-9
4-88

Possibly replacing Chorney with Bowey/some other callup from Hershey. Carlson needs to give a solid effort now that Niskanen is out.

I'd be open to calling up Bowey, surely that will motivate the group to perform better. He could also take over the PP duties for the 2nd wave.

 

[hockeykicker]

I'd be open to calling up Bowey, surely that will motivate the group to perform better. He could also take over the PP duties for the 2nd wave.

Do they have cap space?

 

[twabby]

Bowey would certainly make sense since he is a right-shot. But I don't follow Hershey so I don't really have a strong opinion.

^^^ and yes they have cap space per Isabelle on twitter.

 

[Alexander the Gr8]

Do they have cap space?

We sent down Sanford and Carey, and we called up Vrana. I'd imagine we have the space to call up Bowey.

 

[txpd]

Caps are 2 points off the division lead with a game in hand on Pittsburgh. They are 2pt off of second with 2 games in hand on the Rangers. Columbus has a game in hand and 1pt on the Caps. Flyers are tied with the Caps, but give 3 games in hand to Washington.

This will be a good time to battle thru this injury issue and for more of the log jams to break.

 

[Hivemind]

We sent down Sanford and Carey, and we called up Vrana. I'd imagine we have the space to call up Bowey.

Sanford and Vrana are near washes in terms of salary (Sanford makes $12K more). Carey has a league minimum $575K cap hit. Bowey makes $703K in the NHL. So the your mental math you're basing your assertion on doesn't check out.

However, they do have enough cushion left to barely wedge Bowey in at this point, but it would effectively eat up the remainder of their cap space (per CapFriendly). They do not have enough cap space to have Vrana and Sanford up simultaneously.


That extra few hundred thousand that Wilson got that people said wasn't a big deal is rather restrictive for their call-ups right now, and if they ice a 23 man roster essentially negates any deadline cap aggregation .

 

[SpinningEdge]

One huge issue no one is bringing up about Caps struggles is it puts GMBM in a tough spot. He will have to put focus on improving a team not quite there with zero cap space. That takes a lot of time, creativity, etc.

We have serious guys we need to keep right now and we are 1/3 through season without signing anyone.

If GMBM let's Alzner leave, he should be fired. He's a UFA and IMO vital to Caps blue line. Each day that passes worries me more and more. We saw how long it took to deal with orlov, Johansson, etc. he's got much bigger plate this year with upcoming free agents...

As the season goes on negotiations won't happen because focus will need to be on ice without outside distractions. GMBM needs to quit twiddling his thumbs between sept - Jan every year and do something.

 

[Alexander the Gr8]

Sanford and Vrana are near washes in terms of salary (Sanford makes $12K more). Carey has a league minimum $575K cap hit. Bowey makes $703K in the NHL. So the your mental math you're basing your assertion on doesn't check out.

However, they do have enough cushion left to barely wedge Bowey in at this point, but it would effectively eat up the remainder of their cap space (per CapFriendly). They do not have enough cap space to have Vrana and Sanford up simultaneously.


That extra few hundred thousand that Wilson got that people said wasn't a big deal is rather restrictive for their call-ups right now, and if they ice a 23 man roster essentially negates any deadline cap aggregation .

I knew we had a little margin in our cap structure which we could eat up in situations like this one.
In hindsight, considering the price we paid for Eller, the Habs should've retained a little.

The Connolly signing doesn't look very good either.

One huge issue no one is bringing up about Caps struggles is it puts GMBM in a tough spot. He will have to put focus on improving a team not quite there with zero cap space. That takes a lot of time, creativity, etc.

We have serious guys we need to keep right now and we are 1/3 through season without signing anyone.

If GMBM let's Alzner leave, he should be fired. He's a UFA and IMO vital to Caps blue line. Each day that passes worries me more and more. We saw how long it took to deal with orlov, Johansson, etc. he's got much bigger plate this year with upcoming free agents...

As the season goes on negotiations won't happen because focus will need to be on ice without outside distractions. GMBM needs to quit twiddling his thumbs between sept - Jan every year and do something.

This offseason will be crazy, it will define the remainder of the Ovechkin era.

 

[twabby]

One huge issue no one is bringing up about Caps struggles is it puts GMBM in a tough spot. He will have to put focus on improving a team not quite there with zero cap space. That takes a lot of time, creativity, etc.

We have serious guys we need to keep right now and we are 1/3 through season without signing anyone.

If GMBM let's Alzner leave, he should be fired. He's a UFA and IMO vital to Caps blue line. Each day that passes worries me more and more. We saw how long it took to deal with orlov, Johansson, etc. he's got much bigger plate this year with upcoming free agents...

As the season goes on negotiations won't happen because focus will need to be on ice without outside distractions. GMBM needs to quit twiddling his thumbs between sept - Jan every year and do something.

I think signing Alzner to a deal similar to the one being reported ($5.5M to $6.0M long term) would be even worse than letting him walk. IMO Niskanen absolutely carries him and there will be similar, cheaper replacements available on the market. A name I threw out already was Ron Hainsey.

 

[chilimac]

Nisky "absolutely carries " Alzner ???
wow.
Well, thanks for informing me of this. I guess I can watch tomorrow's
game with an all new focus. I've just got to see Nisky "absolutely carry"
a guy who hasnt missed a game since when... the Reagan administration??
lol.
whatever.

 

[txpd]

I think signing Alzner to a deal similar to the one being reported ($5.5M to $6.0M long term) would be even worse than letting him walk. IMO Niskanen absolutely carries him and there will be similar, cheaper replacements available on the market. A name I threw out already was Ron Hainsey.

its not worth arguing about, buddy, but you are lost on Karl Alzner. He does not need and is not being carried by another defenseman.
the funny things is that nhl teams would lineup to sign Alzner at that price.

 

[Hivemind]

Nisky "absolutely carries " Alzner ???
wow.
Well, thanks for informing me of this. I guess I can watch tomorrow's
game with an all new focus. I've just got to see Nisky "absolutely carry"
a guy who hasnt missed a game since when... the Reagan administration??
lol.
whatever.

I'm confused as to how Alzner's ability to avoid missing games relates to his ability to be a shutdown defender.

 

[trick9]

Replacing Karl Alzner with Ron Hainsey is like replacing Milan Lucic with Tom Wilson.