Speculation: Acq./Rost. Bldg./Cap/Lines etc. Part LXXVI (Winning...MEH)

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trick9

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Jun 2, 2013
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That same logic applies to whichever other position you have to shave that $1.5M budget away from. For instance, first line right wing.

Much rather cheap out on the 4th line than top-4 D when you only have 3 of those on the roster to begin with. It's pretty much impossible to win with just 2 legit top-4 D's.
 

MW6

Registered User
Oct 21, 2011
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Not sure how you mirror pp1 with pp2. Are you talking about an entirely different formation? If this is the Caps base 1-3-1 set with Ovechkin in his one timer hole. You have Orlov as the first shooting option on pp2. You have a right shot at the top of the set that cant pass for the one timer without turning his body. you have Oshie, a forward in the Carlson spot meaning he is the defenseman. You also have Williams on the halfway running the play.

Are you sure? or did you mean something else?

I guess I should've been more clear with the setup (on capfriendly the setup is 3-2 no matter what team)

PP1
Mojo/Kuzy
Ovechkin-Wilson/Connolly-Backstrom
Carlson

PP2
Williams
Oshie-Burakovsky/Vrana-Vrana/Burakovsky
Orlov


Backstrom is the playmaker on the first unit and Oshie on the second.

And to whomever asked about keeping Mojo/Kuzy of the PP, I'd like to quote Einstein: "Insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results." If it's struggling, why not try something different.
 

Revelation

Registered User
Aug 15, 2016
5,298
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What you just described is basically a GMGM dumpster dive.

So... instead of paying great players that play extremely well for us we should... dumpster dive.

OK, got it. Great plan

All the great players are coveted by every single team and overvalued to death. The teams that win are the ones that find bargains that fit their system.

Hornqvist for Neal -> improvement
Daley for Scuderi -> huge improvement
Hagelin for Perron -> huge improvement
Ian Cole -> improvement
Justin Schultz -> fit on the team

Not a coincidence. You just forgot what it feels like to have a GM with analytical skills.

Caps could have easily outbid the pens for any of the bottom 4 players and gotten Kessel too... but no lets blow our load on Orpik.
 

HecticGlow

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Mar 14, 2016
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Regarding fitting in Alzner, Oshie and Kuzy under the cap, I think what's arguably changed (at least on this forum) is Mojo is increasingly becoming a guy we can't afford, and whose cap hit is good value for what he brings but still a significant amount. Some on here seemed to assume he'd be traded next offseason to make room.

As it stands, the players we can't afford to lose without spending a few seasons in the wilderness are:

  • Holtby
  • Ovi
  • Backstrom
  • Oshie
  • Niskanen
  • Alzner
  • Mojo
  • Kuzy (assuming his strong play returns)

Add in to that cheap young skaters - like Burakovsky, Vrana and Schmidt - and you've got a team.

The big question, though, is what strings would come attached to an Oshie or Alzner contract (thinking NTC and NMCs)? Yet at the same time if we let Oshie and Williams walk, where are our strong right hand shot forwards (for the powerplay of nowhere else)?

Whatever we pay Alzner we'll be paying Carlson within a year or two, while still having term on Orpik and Niskanen. I'm not sure how we'll be able to pay four Ds $5m+ each. But no one is projecting Bowey as a Carlson replacement, that I can see.
 

HecticGlow

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And to whomever asked about keeping Mojo/Kuzy of the PP, I'd like to quote Einstein: "Insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results." If it's struggling, why not try something different.

Yet you keep Burakovsky - who has never clicked on the powerplay and has now been removed twice for poor performance - on PP2? Either the system is the problem or the players are - and if it's the system there's no logic behind removing one of Mojo or Kuzy. Also the notion that Oshie would be the playmaker (and Wilson/Connolly would be on PP1) suggests you don't really understand the players strengths and weaknesses.
 

txpd

Registered User
Jan 25, 2003
69,649
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New Bern, NC
I guess I should've been more clear with the setup (on capfriendly the setup is 3-2 no matter what team)

PP1
Mojo/Kuzy
Ovechkin-Wilson/Connolly-Backstrom
Carlson

PP2
Williams
Oshie-Burakovsky/Vrana-Vrana/Burakovsky
Orlov


Backstrom is the playmaker on the first unit and Oshie on the second.

And to whomever asked about keeping Mojo/Kuzy of the PP, I'd like to quote Einstein: "Insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results." If it's struggling, why not try something different.

The Caps best pp shooter is Ovechkin. The second best is Oshie. You both take him off pp1 and move him from shooter to playmaker. You have Vrana and Burakovsky on the one timer slot without any evidence that either of them can do that. You are also giving the first shooting option on a pp unit to players who in one case has never scored an nhl goal and in the other case hasn't scored one in 24 straight games. You bring up the word "Insanity"

Then there is the idea of taking Johansson off the pp entirely. I can live with, though wouldn't recommend giving either Vrana or Burt Kuzy's pp ice time. He is struggling. Johansson is having his best season and you would take him off the pp to try something different?
 

CapitalsCupReality

It’s Go Time!!
Feb 27, 2002
64,388
19,089
Regarding fitting in Alzner, Oshie and Kuzy under the cap, I think what's arguably changed (at least on this forum) is Mojo is increasingly becoming a guy we can't afford, and whose cap hit is good value for what he brings but still a significant amount. Some on here seemed to assume he'd be traded next offseason to make room.

As it stands, the players we can't afford to lose without spending a few seasons in the wilderness are:

  • Holtby
  • Ovi
  • Backstrom
  • Oshie
  • Niskanen
  • Alzner
  • Mojo
  • Kuzy (assuming his strong play returns)

Add in to that cheap young skaters - like Burakovsky, Vrana and Schmidt - and you've got a team.

The big question, though, is what strings would come attached to an Oshie or Alzner contract (thinking NTC and NMCs)? Yet at the same time if we let Oshie and Williams walk, where are our strong right hand shot forwards (for the powerplay of nowhere else)?

Whatever we pay Alzner we'll be paying Carlson within a year or two, while still having term on Orpik and Niskanen. I'm not sure how we'll be able to pay four Ds $5m+ each. But no one is projecting Bowey as a Carlson replacement, that I can see.

If Orpik is ever getting bought out, it's probably that last year when they have to resign Carlson. Hell Lars Eller better wake the F up or he's going to find himself getting bought out next year.
 

Carlzner

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Oct 31, 2011
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Good dumpster diving is not a bad plan. For example Rangers signed Michael Grabner who is ones of the fastest players in the league and fits like a glove to their speedy system. Penguins got Trevor Daley for pretty much nothing because the Blackhawks pretty brutally mishandling him. Quenneville played him on the wrong side and he was always a pretty bad fit to that system because he's an offensive D man that wasn't trusted at all in Chicago. He started nearly 70% on the offensive zone and Quenneville didn't really care that he had 56.4 CF% because he wants his D's to be defense-first kind of players. Penguins didn't care about that too much.

Just year before moving to the Blackhawks Daley was on Stars top-pairing.

If you trust your scouting and coaches you can make a pretty good finds from dumpster diving.

So which dumpster dives have been wins for our pro scouts? You know, the pro scouts that this board thinks can replace Oshie and Alzner with dumpster dives. Surely they have some kind of successful track record for this board to make these claims, right?
 

twabby

Registered User
Mar 9, 2010
13,625
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The more I think about it, the more I think signing Alzner to a big, long-term contract would be a terrible move.

Since people here tend to be hostile towards any sort of analytical argument, I decided to just look at stats most people can agree on: goals. Over large periods of time looking at goals is probably equally, if not more valid than looking at shot-attempts (Corsi) because the sample sizes become large enough that good and bad luck tend to even out. The results for Alzner are not good:

http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/rat...5000&teamid=0&type=goals&sort=A60&sortdir=ASC

Sorting by various columns, we find that Alzner is:

129th of 152 in on-ice goals for/60 (amongst qualified defensemen)
27th of 152 in on-ice goals against/60
79th of 152 in on-ice goals % (exactly 50%)

151st of 152 in on-ice goals for/60 relative to teammates (i.e. do teammates score more or less while Alzner's on the ice vs. off the ice)
35th of 152 in on-ice goals against/60 relative to teammates
136th of 152 in on-ice goals % relative to teammates

So as expected, Alzner fares well on the defensive side of things. He limits goals against both in raw numbers and relative to his teammates. But he is absolutely crippling offensively, so much so that his goal differential on really good regular season Capitals teams (only missed the playoffs once during his time) is only 50% and relative to his teammates, his goal differential is one of the worst on the list. He's amongst such notables as Roman Polak, Hal Gill, Deryk Engelland, Kevin Bieksa, and other notable bad players.

I've thought that Matt Niskanen has helped improve the perception of Alzner, so I looked at his rankings and they are as follows:

60th (of 152)
19th
21st
81st
15th
31st

The bolded puts Niskanen near players such as Ryan Suter, Mike Green, Drew Doughty, TJ Brodie, and Duncan Keith.

So in terms purely of on-ice goal differential relative to his teammates, Niskanen has clearly been the better performer than Alzner over their careers.

Even if you choose to look at shot-based metrics rather than goal-based ones, corsi and expected goals paint a similar picture of Alzner: that he's pretty good defensively but absolutely deficient in the offensive end.

I can get behind keeping Alzner for his PKing abilities and supposed leadership at like $4M, but I can't get behind paying him a huge sum of money for a long period of time when the results at even strength just haven't been there throughout his career. He is deployed in a more defensive role than average, but so are players like Vlasic, Tanev, Hjalmarsson, Klein, Braun, Hamhuis, etc. and they are paid nowhere near what Alzner's rumored to receive and they all perform better than him in terms of goal differential.

Just because the Capitals currently have no one better in the system to replace him doesn't mean they should overpay him. There will be other options out there (either via trade or UFA, especially with the looming expansion draft) and that's why it's especially important for them to both see Alzner apart from Niskanen and to also see what else they have in their young defensemen.
 
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txpd

Registered User
Jan 25, 2003
69,649
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New Bern, NC
So which dumpster dives have been wins for our pro scouts? You know, the pro scouts that this board thinks can replace Oshie and Alzner with dumpster dives. Surely they have some kind of successful track record for this board to make these claims, right?

Except when you honestly don't think Alzner is any good. then its easy.
 

hockeyfan88

Registered User
Dec 14, 2015
578
1
Except when you honestly don't think Alzner is any good. then its easy.

He's not saying anything like that. He's arguing that Alzner's near elite defensive ability do NOT outweigh his offensive deficiencies in terms of goal differential.

And that's why twabby thinks the Caps should not overpay Alzner because that will cripple the team in the future, probably causing them to lose a better player like Johansson, Kuznetsov, etc.

I'm not sure I agree with him either, but his reasoning and arguments are pretty solid.
 

CapitalsCupReality

It’s Go Time!!
Feb 27, 2002
64,388
19,089
Remind me again what the price tag SHOULD be for a shutdown pairing Defensive Defender in his prime. And please don't refer to contracts that were signed over 3 years ago unless you're adjusting for league inflation in your price tag.

I wouldn't want to pay Alzner $6 mil per, but $5-$5.5 for 6 years, I'd sign him.

Front load it as much as you can, let him get him money banked early and if his game deteriorates, you don't have a lot of backloaded salary to buy out.

6 years $30-$33 mil I think is fine. He'll have just turned 35 his last year, so he could probably squeek out a year or two afterwards.
 
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RandyHolt

Keep truckin'
Nov 3, 2006
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As a part of determining Alzners price, I feel like we need to look at the direction of the league. Have the recent cups winners featured a guy like him, at his expected price tag of ~6M, and were they keys to the cup?

The game has changed a lot in recent years. Every Caps game is less physical than the last one. Scoring seems more difficult than ever. Defense is now offense. Yet we can barely score every playoffs.

We will always have a defense first minded coach, or will BMac be looking for a bigger fleet of PMDs over McPhee, who was happy with one per pair. These playoffs may decide his fate. A contract like his must be forward looking, for we are largely signing him for the rest of his career.

Letting Alzner walk would certainly change the dynamic of the team. I wonder if he will demand top dollar after taking a friendly deal for the betterment of the team. It obviously failed. Sarge got paid more than he is.

I wonder how much Rod Langway would make in todays game. I am still stinging from seeing Stevens go. Homegrown players are an interesting dynamic, for I think owners do have an eye on fan opinions.
 
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txpd

Registered User
Jan 25, 2003
69,649
14,131
New Bern, NC
He's not saying anything like that. He's arguing that Alzner's near elite defensive ability do NOT outweigh his offensive deficiencies in terms of goal differential.

And that's why twabby thinks the Caps should not overpay Alzner because that will cripple the team in the future, probably causing them to lose a better player like Johansson, Kuznetsov, etc.

I'm not sure I agree with him either, but his reasoning and arguments are pretty solid.

No, he is saying exactly asked. Asked straight forward if Alzner could be replaced by a series of aging veterans on one year, low dollar contracts, he said yes.

what is your definition of overpay? is the same as market value? Twabs said he could stand $4m per on a shorter term than is realistic. is paying 60% of market value overpaying or underpaying?

I would be if you asked twabby, would he rather get Alzner for 5 or 6 years at a team friendly contract, he would still rather he walk to be replaced with an offensive defenseman.
 

Calicaps

NFA
Aug 3, 2006
21,816
14,097
Almost Canada
The more I think about it, the more I think signing Alzner to a big, long-term contract would be a terrible move.

Since people here tend to be hostile towards any sort of analytical argument, I decided to just look at stats most people can agree on: goals. Over large periods of time looking at goals is probably equally, if not more valid than looking at shot-attempts (Corsi) because the sample sizes become large enough that good and bad luck tend to even out. The results for Alzner are not good:

http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/rat...5000&teamid=0&type=goals&sort=A60&sortdir=ASC

Sorting by various columns, we find that Alzner is:

129th of 152 in on-ice goals for/60 (amongst qualified defensemen)
27th of 152 in on-ice goals against/60
79th of 152 in on-ice goals % (exactly 50%)

151st of 152 in on-ice goals for/60 relative to teammates (i.e. do teammates score more or less while Alzner's on the ice vs. off the ice)
35th of 152 in on-ice goals against/60 relative to teammates
136th of 152 in on-ice goals % relative to teammates

So as expected, Alzner fares well on the defensive side of things. He limits goals against both in raw numbers and relative to his teammates. But he is absolutely crippling offensively, so much so that his goal differential on really good regular season Capitals teams (only missed the playoffs once during his time) is only 50% and relative to his teammates, his goal differential is one of the worst on the list. He's amongst such notables as Roman Polak, Hal Gill, Deryk Engelland, Kevin Bieksa, and other notable bad players.

I've thought that Matt Niskanen has helped improve the perception of Alzner, so I looked at his rankings and they are as follows:

60th (of 152)
19th
21st
81st
15th
31st

The bolded puts Niskanen near players such as Ryan Suter, Mike Green, Drew Doughty, TJ Brodie, and Duncan Keith.

So in terms purely of on-ice goal differential relative to his teammates, Niskanen has clearly been the better performer than Alzner over their careers.

Even if you choose to look at shot-based metrics rather than goal-based ones, corsi and expected goals paint a similar picture of Alzner: that he's pretty good defensively but absolutely deficient in the offensive end.

I can get behind keeping Alzner for his PKing abilities and supposed leadership at like $4M, but I can't get behind paying him a huge sum of money for a long period of time when the results at even strength just haven't been there throughout his career. He is deployed in a more defensive role than average, but so are players like Vlasic, Tanev, Hjalmarsson, Klein, Braun, Hamhuis, etc. and they are paid nowhere near what Alzner's rumored to receive and they all perform better than him in terms of goal differential.

Just because the Capitals currently have no one better in the system to replace him doesn't mean they should overpay him. There will be other options out there (either via trade or UFA, especially with the looming expansion draft) and that's why it's especially important for them to both see Alzner apart from Niskanen and to also see what else they have in their young defensemen.

Do these stats account for PP time? Nisky gets PP mins on a unit that until this season has been tops in the league. Alzner gets no PP minutes. But Alzner (and Niskanen) plays against the highest QOC at ES and the most PK minutes. Do those facts affect these metrics?
 

Hivemind

We're Touched
Oct 8, 2010
37,009
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Philadelphia
Do these stats account for PP time? Nisky gets PP mins on a unit that until this season has been tops in the league. Alzner gets no PP minutes. But Alzner (and Niskanen) plays against the highest QOC at ES and the most PK minutes. Do those facts affect these metrics?
twabby knows enough not to incorporate PP stats into that picture. Plus virtually every stats site will default to either even-strength or 5-on-5.
 

twabby

Registered User
Mar 9, 2010
13,625
14,445
Do these stats account for PP time? Nisky gets PP mins on a unit that until this season has been tops in the league. Alzner gets no PP minutes. But Alzner (and Niskanen) plays against the highest QOC at ES and the most PK minutes. Do those facts affect these metrics?

These are all 5v5 numbers, so PP and PK time aren't factored in.

The stats aren't adjusted by competition or deployment, but looking at QoC and zone start stats you can see Alzner gets tough, but not abnormally tough minutes. Compared to other top shutdown players (including Niskanen), Alzner performs poorly. That's not what I want if I'm going to pay a guy $5.5M+ for 5+ years.
 

Calicaps

NFA
Aug 3, 2006
21,816
14,097
Almost Canada
twabby knows enough not to incorporate PP stats into that picture. Plus virtually every stats site will default to either even-strength or 5-on-5.

I don't know anything about fancy stats so wouldn't know to omit special teams. That's why I asked.

These are all 5v5 numbers, so PP and PK time aren't factored in.

The stats aren't adjusted by competition or deployment, but looking at QoC and zone start stats you can see Alzner gets tough, but not abnormally tough minutes. Compared to other top shutdown players (including Niskanen), Alzner performs poorly. That's not what I want if I'm going to pay a guy $5.5M+ for 5+ years.

Ok thanks.
 

artilector

Registered User
Jan 11, 2006
8,351
1,187
I can buy the idea that Alzner's market price may be an overpayment relative to his "true value"... however, one would need to have a clear alternative -- can't just assume to be able to get a top-4 D at the snap of a finger. If you go after a legit top-4 UFA, you're pretty likely to end up playing a high price, anyway. If you go the trade route, you'll have to part with significant assets. Either way, you can easily end up with a worse outcome than if you kept your (somewhat overpaid) guy in the first place.

I'd much rather lean towards cutting costs by trading/not re-signing some of the forwards -- unless I had a very clear plan of how to replace Alzner with a cheaper/better top-4 guy.
 

Vilica

Registered User
Jun 1, 2014
425
487
I don't know why I do this stuff at 430am instead of going to bed like a normal person, but what's done is done. Hopefully somebody finds it insightful/useful in gauging possible value.

Looking at the players similar to Alzner, I've found 6 player comparables and 1 team comparable. He also has a peer comparable, as Dmitry Kulikov will also be hitting the market this year. However, Kulikov will be entering his age 27 season at the beginning of his next contract. After signing his new deal, Karl will be entering his age 29 season.

The team comparable is obviously Orpik, GMBM gave him 5-27.5, a 5.5 cap hit and 8% of the cap for his age 34-38 seasons. His agent can point at that deal and say that's the minimum we want.

The player comparables are all similar aged defensemen who signed UFA deals. They are Marc Staal, Andrej Sekera, Marc Methot, Jason Demers, Niklas Hjalmarsson and Marc-Eduard Vlasic. I only chose these players by looking at them, it might be interesting to see how they compare to Alzner in twabby's stats.

Marc Staal signed a 6yr-34.2mil deal, 5.7 cap and 7.8% of cap, covering his age 28-33 seasons. He has a full NMC for all 6 years.
Andrej Sekera signed a 6yr-33mil deal, 5.5 cap and 7.5% of cap, covering his age 29-34 seasons. He has a full NMC for the first 4 years.
Marc Methot signed a 4yr-19.6mil deal, 4.9 cap and 6.5% of cap, covering his age 30-33 seasons. He has a 10 team NTC for all 4 years.
Jason Demers signed a 5yr-22.5mil deal, 4.5 cap and 6.1% of cap, covering his age 28-32 seasons. He has an 8 team NTC for 4 years.
Niklas Hjalmarsson signed a 5yr-20.5mil deal, 4.1 cap and 6.4% of cap, covering his age 27-31 seasons. He has a NMC for all 5 years.
Marc-Edouard Vlasic signed a 5yr-21.25mil deal, 4.25 cap and 7.1% of cap, covering his age 26-30 seasons. He has a NTC for all 5 years.

If we assume the cap will be flat and remain at 73 million, 8% of that is 5.84, 7.5% is 5.475, 7% is 5.11, 6.5% is 4.745, and 6% is 4.38. Right now, the Caps are on the hook for ~51mil of a 73mil cap for next year for 7 forwards, 4 defense and 1 goalie, so they have basically 70% of the cap spoken for, and 30% available.
 

trick9

Registered User
Jun 2, 2013
12,076
4,949
So which dumpster dives have been wins for our pro scouts? You know, the pro scouts that this board thinks can replace Oshie and Alzner with dumpster dives. Surely they have some kind of successful track record for this board to make these claims, right?

None really.

I didn't say it was a good plan with the current pro scouting for the Capitals. :laugh:
 
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