Speculation: Acq./Rost. Bldg./Cap/Lines etc. Part LXXVI (Winning...MEH)

[g00n]

I don't know why I do this stuff at 430am instead of going to bed like a normal person, but what's done is done. Hopefully somebody finds it insightful/useful in gauging possible value.

Looking at the players similar to Alzner, I've found 6 player comparables and 1 team comparable. He also has a peer comparable, as Dmitry Kulikov will also be hitting the market this year. However, Kulikov will be entering his age 27 season at the beginning of his next contract. After signing his new deal, Karl will be entering his age 29 season.

The team comparable is obviously Orpik, GMBM gave him 5-27.5, a 5.5 cap hit and 8% of the cap for his age 34-38 seasons. His agent can point at that deal and say that's the minimum we want.

The player comparables are all similar aged defensemen who signed UFA deals. They are Marc Staal, Andrej Sekera, Marc Methot, Jason Demers, Niklas Hjalmarsson and Marc-Eduard Vlasic. I only chose these players by looking at them, it might be interesting to see how they compare to Alzner in twabby's stats.

Marc Staal signed a 6yr-34.2mil deal, 5.7 cap and 7.8% of cap, covering his age 28-33 seasons. He has a full NMC for all 6 years.
Andrej Sekera signed a 6yr-33mil deal, 5.5 cap and 7.5% of cap, covering his age 29-34 seasons. He has a full NMC for the first 4 years.
Marc Methot signed a 4yr-19.6mil deal, 4.9 cap and 6.5% of cap, covering his age 30-33 seasons. He has a 10 team NTC for all 4 years.
Jason Demers signed a 5yr-22.5mil deal, 4.5 cap and 6.1% of cap, covering his age 28-32 seasons. He has an 8 team NTC for 4 years.
Niklas Hjalmarsson signed a 5yr-20.5mil deal, 4.1 cap and 6.4% of cap, covering his age 27-31 seasons. He has a NMC for all 5 years.
Marc-Edouard Vlasic signed a 5yr-21.25mil deal, 4.25 cap and 7.1% of cap, covering his age 26-30 seasons. He has a NTC for all 5 years.

If we assume the cap will be flat and remain at 73 million, 8% of that is 5.84, 7.5% is 5.475, 7% is 5.11, 6.5% is 4.745, and 6% is 4.38. Right now, the Caps are on the hook for ~51mil of a 73mil cap for next year for 7 forwards, 4 defense and 1 goalie, so they have basically 70% of the cap spoken for, and 30% available.

Assuming all the math checks out, finally a post with the right idea. This is how it's actually done. Comparables and space.

A deal with the Caps will probably be close to $5M based on the sniff test as well as the above. Too much beyond that will be creeping toward overpayment and will largely depend on the market. All it takes is one GM with a huge gap at the top of his defensive depth chart to blow the whole curve.

 

[txpd]

I can buy the idea that Alzner's market price may be an overpayment relative to his "true value"... however, one would need to have a clear alternative -- can't just assume to be able to get a top-4 D at the snap of a finger. If you go after a legit top-4 UFA, you're pretty likely to end up playing a high price, anyway. If you go the trade route, you'll have to part with significant assets. Either way, you can easily end up with a worse outcome than if you kept your (somewhat overpaid) guy in the first place.

I'd much rather lean towards cutting costs by trading/not re-signing some of the forwards -- unless I had a very clear plan of how to replace Alzner with a cheaper/better top-4 guy.

Yes, this is all correct. Top 4 defensemen are very expensive on the ufa market. How much did McPhee pay for Orpik? How much did Holland pay for Mike Green? Trading for a legit top 4 d would cost real assets. Wouldn't you rather pay Alzner a million a season more and keep Vrana than have to trade him for a D? And lets be honest. Good defensemen on cap friendly contracts don't get traded.

Where your logic hits the rocks with at least twabby is that he doesn't see Alzner as a legit top 4 d. As he has said many times, the Caps could grab a Hainsey or a Seidenberg off the one year contract ufa market(the junk pile) and have a reasonable replacement for what Alzner does. Except maybe for Alzner's "supposed leadership".

 

[g00n]

These are all 5v5 numbers, so PP and PK time aren't factored in.

The stats aren't adjusted by competition or deployment, but looking at QoC and zone start stats you can see Alzner gets tough, but not abnormally tough minutes. Compared to other top shutdown players (including Niskanen), Alzner performs poorly. That's not what I want if I'm going to pay a guy $5.5M+ for 5+ years.

How does this measure out in quantifiable terms? What is "tough" vs "abnormally tough", and how many fractions of a point does one go up or down in on-ice GF/GA per 60 for each unit of toughness?

 

[txpd]

Assuming all the math checks out, finally a post with the right idea. This is how it's actually done. Comparables and space.

A deal with the Caps will probably be close to $5M based on the sniff test as well as the above. Too much beyond that will be creeping toward overpayment and will largely depend on the market. All it takes is one GM with a huge gap at the top of his defensive depth chart to blow the whole curve.

how does the early negotiating period for ufa's fit into the ex draft schedule?

 

[g00n]

how does the early negotiating period for ufa's fit into the ex draft schedule?

I don't think it matters as much as people are presuming when it comes to players like Alzner. 32 teams are going to end up, in total, surrendering a handful of defensemen near the bottom of their depth charts. It shouldn't make much of a difference for higher-demand players, especially defensemen who always have a market.

McPhee has rarely, if ever, been one of the top bidders in big name UFA sweepstakes so I don't expect him to break the bank for anyone. He may chase down one or two marketable names to sell tickets if the expansion field looks thin on star appeal. Alzner isn't in that class.

 

[Langway]

The two comparables I found a few days ago for defensive defensemen with similar underlying stats and usage this season were Jay Bouwmeester (5x$5.4M) and Danny DeKeyser (6x$5M). I believe DeKeyser's recent deal included one RFA season. 5/6x$5M is probably your floor and a weak UFA crop begs the possibility of Alzner getting Niskanen money and seven years, if teams get desperate.

Somewhere around $5.25M should be workable for the Caps but I still wonder, even if Orpik is moved, whether it's a dynamic enough blueline overall. They may have the shutdown covered from 1-3 but I'm not sure that's enough, particularly when coupled with a general lack of offensive cohesion. Bowey forcing the issue for a spot next year would be helpful.

Kuznetsov seems to be finding his game. Burakovsky is now the odd duck needing to find his game or risk getting sat (or worse). Thankfully Vrana may be ready to pick up the slack somewhat and at least up the competition.

More and more Grubauer is establishing himself as the player most likely to be selected by Vegas (if merit has its say). He'll be fairly cheap in the short-term and could be ready for a 1B type role.

 

[trick9]

The two comparables I found a few days ago for defensive defensemen with similar underlying stats and usage this season were Jay Bouwmeester (5x$5.4M) and Danny DeKeyser (6x$5M). I believe DeKeyser's recent deal included one RFA season. 5/6x$5M is probably your floor and a weak UFA crop begs the possibility of Alzner getting Niskanen money and seven years, if teams get desperate.

Somewhere around $5.25M should be workable for the Caps but I still wonder, even if Orpik is moved, whether it's a dynamic enough blueline overall. They may have the shutdown covered from 1-3 but I'm not sure that's enough, particularly when coupled with a general lack of offensive cohesion. Bowey forcing the issue for a spot next year would be helpful.

Kuznetsov seems to be finding his game. Burakovsky is now the odd duck needing to find his game or risk getting sat (or worse). Thankfully Vrana may be ready to pick up the slack somewhat and at least up the competition.

More and more Grubauer is establishing himself as the player most likely to be selected by Vegas (if merit has its say). He'll be fairly cheap in the short-term and could be ready for a 1B type role.

I wouldn't be shocked if Alzner ended up being cheaper than either of those two. Jay Bouwmeester, although older has participated in several best-on-best tournaments for Team Canada which is an easy sell for the agents to get more money. Same as Orpik.

Danny DeKeyser is a pretty good comparable. Slightly worse defensively but he has more of an offensive upside to him too. He had 31 points as an 24-year old. That's 10 more than Karl Alzner's career-high 21 points.

 

[Alexander the Gr8]

I don't think it matters as much as people are presuming when it comes to players like Alzner. 32 teams are going to end up, in total, surrendering a handful of defensemen near the bottom of their depth charts. It shouldn't make much of a difference for higher-demand players, especially defensemen who always have a market.

McPhee has rarely, if ever, been one of the top bidders in big name UFA sweepstakes so I don't expect him to break the bank for anyone. He may chase down one or two marketable names to sell tickets if the expansion field looks thin on star appeal. Alzner isn't in that class.

That was true when he was the Capitals GM. Now he's starting a new franchise with no players and $70+M of cap space. If he wants to attract fans in the first few seasons, he's got to get a star to run the show.

The top FA this summer is Panarin. If I'm GMGM, I break the bank for Panarin and offer him $7M per year.

 

[hockeykicker]

Doesn't look like niskanen is playing tomorrow. Not taking line rushes

 

[Barry Amsterdam]

That was true when he was the Capitals GM. Now he's starting a new franchise with no players and $70+M of cap space. If he wants to attract fans in the first few seasons, he's got to get a star to run the show.

The top FA this summer is Panarin. If I'm GMGM, I break the bank for Panarin and offer him $7M per year.

Edit: misread

 

[g00n]

That was true when he was the Capitals GM. Now he's starting a new franchise with no players and $70+M of cap space. If he wants to attract fans in the first few seasons, he's got to get a star to run the show.

The top FA this summer is Panarin. If I'm GMGM, I break the bank for Panarin and offer him $7M per year.

I addressed that in the sentences after what you bolded.

 

[hockeykicker]

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Assuming all the math checks out, finally a post with the right idea. This is how it's actually done. Comparables and space.

A deal with the Caps will probably be close to $5M based on the sniff test as well as the above. Too much beyond that will be creeping toward overpayment and will largely depend on the market. All it takes is one GM with a huge gap at the top of his defensive depth chart to blow the whole curve.

Or you can just post 5-5.5 per for 6 like I did.

 

[g00n]

Or you can just post 5-5.5 per for 6 like I did.

Well it was either that or post a wall of stat abuse claiming a souped-up version of +/- means he sucks and is worth around $4M. So I split the difference. Compromise!

 

[twabby]

How does this measure out in quantifiable terms? What is "tough" vs "abnormally tough", and how many fractions of a point does one go up or down in on-ice GF/GA per 60 for each unit of toughness?

It's a matter of comparing him to his peers rather than finding out how exactly each % of zone starts affects GF%, for instance.

In terms of offensive zone starts he is 113th of 152 on that list, and 40th of 152 in defensive zone starts. So it suggests a more defensive deployment, but he's still only in about the ~73rd percentile of defensive zone deployment which is what I mean by tough, but not "abnormally tough". Compared to those who have tougher deployment than him, Alzner generally doesn't perform as well in the goal-based metrics described in my earlier post.

Justin Braun and Josh Gorges are two players I think are very nice comparables for Alzner's style of play: good defensively (but not elite) and poor offensively. Their contracts were both long-term:

Gorges: 6 year UFA deal signed in 2012-13 with an AAV of $3.9M at age 28. In terms of % of the cap (2012-13's cap was $64.3M if you use the middle figure since the cap was screwed up that year), it would equate to a ~$4.42M deal in 2015-16.

Braun: 5 year UFA deal signed in 2015-16 with an AAV of $3.8M AAV at age 28.


These are the types of contracts that I'd be comfortable giving Alzner but it also must be noted that Gorges and Braun have also performed significantly better relative to their teammates than Alzner has in terms of goals, and equal or better in terms of shots. This is also despite the fact that both Gorges and Braun have had tougher zone starts and similar QoC to Alzner throughout their careers.

Alzner has also been very lucky to have incredible stability and talent with his defensive partners throughout his career. He's pretty much exclusively been with John Carlson and Matt Niskanen (and to a lesser extent, Mike Green).

Bottom line is that in my view, Alzner is not worth what he's reportedly seeking ($5.5M to $6.0M long-term) because he is a one-dimensional defensive defenseman who isn't actually elite defensively and is absolutely abysmal offensively and in general doesn't drive goal differential. I'd rather the Capitals look to either replace Alzner with a cheaper alternative like Ron Hainsey short-term (who absolutely is a comparable player and has led Carolina to be one of the best PKing teams in his time there despite having poor goaltending to support him), or go all-out and find a much better replacement via trade in what is likely to be a very busy offseason due to the expansion draft and shuffling contracts.

 

[Alexander the Gr8]

I addressed that in the sentences after what you bolded.

He's gonna chase more than just a marketable name or two. I think LV ends up netting the top rated forward and D available in free agency. With all the other teams' cap struggles, who can outbid them?

OT: It's December of the year 201X, which means that the Ovechkin haters are out in full force on the main board. This is right around the time of the year where he heats up and starts scoring like a machine, prompting an "Ovechkin roaring back" thread.

 

[Carlzner]

Wow.

 

[artilector]

The two comparables I found a few days ago for defensive defensemen with similar underlying stats and usage this season were Jay Bouwmeester (5x$5.4M) and Danny DeKeyser (6x$5M). I believe DeKeyser's recent deal included one RFA season. 5/6x$5M is probably your floor and a weak UFA crop begs the possibility of Alzner getting Niskanen money and seven years, if teams get desperate.

Somewhere around $5.25M should be workable for the Caps but I still wonder, even if Orpik is moved, whether it's a dynamic enough blueline overall. They may have the shutdown covered from 1-3 but I'm not sure that's enough, particularly when coupled with a general lack of offensive cohesion. Bowey forcing the issue for a spot next year would be helpful.

Kuznetsov seems to be finding his game. Burakovsky is now the odd duck needing to find his game or risk getting sat (or worse). Thankfully Vrana may be ready to pick up the slack somewhat and at least up the competition.

More and more Grubauer is establishing himself as the player most likely to be selected by Vegas (if merit has its say). He'll be fairly cheap in the short-term and could be ready for a 1B type role.

It's an interesting question - how much do individual dynamic D contribute to overall dynamism of a team, and whether having (more of) them can really take your possession/offensive game to another level, especially in playoff environment. If the Caps were to try to get more offense with Alzner's money, should they (theoretically) replace Alzner with a more offensively-capable D-man? Or should they replace him with a cheaper defensive guy and spend the extra money on forwards? Or would it be much better to leave Alzner be and improve the system somehow?

As an aside, think about the BB Caps, for example. Having just one "dynamic D" was no impediment to having a huge offense. And on more "standard" contenders, to my eyes getting goals from D depends more on the forwards' ability to generate traffic/deflections.. as far as transition and ability to tilt the ice/grab momentum, it seems to depend more on overall team speed/work-rate/tenacity than having some individual great puck-moving/supercruise-skating D that will single-handedly relieve pressure and get the puck going the other way.

 

[Hivemind]

@Vilica, what baseline did you use to establish those players as comparables? Almost all of them (with the exception of Marc Staal) are superior players to Alzner. Vlasic and Hjalmarsson in particular are strictly better than Alzner.

 

[twabby]

Extremely small sample, but Jakub Vrana is putting shots on goal at a rate only behind Ovechkin amongst Capitals players at 5v5. He also seems to be engaging himself physically and hasn't looked lost at all defensively (hasn't been on for a goal against yet). If he keeps it up I don't really see a reason to send him back to Hershey. He could provide legitimate scoring depth on the third line and could maybe fill in the top 6 if needed.

 

[artilector]

One positive thing that occurred to me -- the fact that Trotz is using a 3rd line with Vrana & Bura on it -- which, at least in terms of potential, is an offense-oriented line with no pretense to play "heavy". Regardless of whether they succeed, seems like some indication that Trotz/the Caps are open to trying a more dynamic approach, at least in terms of lines.

Doubt it can last (too little experience), but at least it's something.. 3 offensive lines, (on paper), baby!

 

[txpd]

Extremely small sample, but Jakub Vrana is putting shots on goal at a rate only behind Ovechkin amongst Capitals players at 5v5. He also seems to be engaging himself physically and hasn't looked lost at all defensively (hasn't been on for a goal against yet). If he keeps it up I don't really see a reason to send him back to Hershey. He could provide legitimate scoring depth on the third line and could maybe fill in the top 6 if needed.

Sanford has apparently scored 4 goals in 6 ahl games. Were they to bring him back, it would be Burakovsky that would get scratched. Interesting dynamic

 

[twabby]

They can't fit Sanford and Vrana under the cap IIRC. Either way I'd give Sanford more time in Hershey before giving him another shot.

 

[um]

Sanford did very little in his time here, let him get more experiance/confidence under his belt in the AHL. Vrana spent 1 1/4 seasons there, he's done his time.

 

[Calicaps]

moving right along: http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showthread.php?t=2162085