Speculation: Acq./Rost. Bldg./Cap/Lines etc. Part LXXVI (Winning...MEH)

[AlexBrovechkin8]

IDK where else to post this, but I just wanted to mention how incredible Green has been for the wings this season.

His skating is soooo silky smooth to the point of where its beautiful to watch, also great hands

he struggled last year - which kinda makes sense, moving to a new team after a decade - but this year he's looked awesome. Should have had his 2nd hat trick of the season last night, but his 3rd goal was called off for goalie interference b/c our player was in the blue paint despite not interfering with the goalie. So dumb!

I wish he could be part of a better organization, he deserves more than our sad excuse of a team atm

You should send this as a personal message to Mr Gone.

 

[txpd]

I think he meant in the Oshie/Williams role.

That answer is easy too. Ovechkin is easily the best perimeter shooter in the team. He can routinely score from out there. while there are numerous people that can score in the slot hole.

That and we all know that Ov would never get a pass in that spot. unless the idea is to use Ov as a decoy

 

[txpd]

... and then on to whichever team claims them.

Burakovsky, the one likely to get the Hershey ticket, is still on his ELC. His ticket is free.

 

[HecticGlow]

Burakovsky, the one likely to get the Hershey ticket, is still on his ELC. His ticket is free.

Being on an ELC isn't a factor in waiver eligibility - it's the number of NHL games played, and the number of seasons you've been a pro for. Capfriendly.com suggests Andre has already played too many games, and would therefore be waiver eligible.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

His specialty is internet doctoring, not waiver eligibility.

 

[txpd]

His specialty is internet doctoring, not waiver eligibility.

well...dang. I didn't think either was going to be farmed anyway. benched, yes. sent to Hershey doesn't make a lot of sense.

meanwhile Oshie will be at 10 games missed on Sunday this week. His week to week is into the 3rd week.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

I was with you early on with the 3 weeks being a good possibility. Shoulder injuries linger. When's the retro IR move have to happen by I wonder?

 

[Hivemind]

edit; beaten to the punch

 

[SpinningEdge]

When Oshie is back - these are lines I'd like to see

Ovi - Kuzy - Oshie
Burro - Backstrom - Williams
Johansson - Eller - Vrana
Winnik - Beagle - Wilson

 

[trick9]

Shot attempts (5-on-5):

1. Dmitri Orlov - 404 (1 goal)
2. John Carlson - 392 (0 goals)
3. Matt Niskanen - 372 (0 goals)
4. Karl Alzner - 344 (2 goals)
5. Brooks Orpik - 320 (0 goals)
(6. Alex Ovechkin - 313 (12 goals) )

#winningformula

 

[twabby]

I assume those are on-ice shot attempts, because they certainly aren't individual shot attempts. That list doesn't mean anything (aside from the defense's lack of goal scoring). It really just represents TOI.

 

[Alexander the Gr8]

Shot attempts (5-on-5):

1. Dmitri Orlov - 404 (1 goal)
2. John Carlson - 392 (0 goals)
3. Matt Niskanen - 372 (0 goals)
4. Karl Alzner - 344 (2 goals)
5. Brooks Orpik - 320 (0 goals)
(6. Alex Ovechkin - 313 (12 goals) )

#winningformula

It would be interesting to compare their shot attempts vs their shots on goal. You'd know roughly how many of these shot attempts ended up on the glass or on the opponents' shin pads.

 

[Hivemind]

It would be interesting to compare their shot attempts vs their shots on goal. You'd know roughly how many of these shot attempts ended up on the glass or on the opponents' shin pads.

Those aren't shot attempts from that individual player, they're shot attempts the Capitals took while that player was on the ice. As twabby mentioned, it's going to correlate pretty heavily with time on ice.

 

[Hivemind]

Here's the actual Capitals leaders in individual 5-on-5 Shot Attempts

1. Alexander Ovechkin - 109
2. Matt Niskanen - 81
2. John Carlson - 81
4. Justin Williams - 78
5. Andre Burakovsky - 71

http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/rat...d=30&type=individual&sort=icorsi&sortdir=DESC

Here's the Capitals leaders in unblocked individual 5-on-5 Shot Attempts:

1. Alex Ovechkin - 78
2. Justin Williams - 62
3. John Carlson - 54
4. Matt Niskanen - 52
5. Nicklas Backstrom - 50

http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/rat...30&type=individual&sort=ifenwick&sortdir=DESC


Here's the Capitals leaders in individual 5-on-5 Shots on Goal:

1. Alex Ovechkin - 54
2. Justin Williams - 43
3. Nicklas Backstrom - 41
4. Matt Niskanen - 37
5. Andre Burakovsky - 33

http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/rat...d=30&type=individual&sort=ishots&sortdir=DESC

 

[twabby]

Hivemind already posted it for 5v5, but I did all-situations (rather than 5v5 only, since power play misses are very apparent):

Player Name|Shots on goal|Missed shots|Blocked shots|Total shot attempts|% of shots on goal|% of shots missed|% of shots blocked
BACKSTROM, NICKLAS|52|12|11|75|69.33%|16.00%|14.67%
JOHANSSON, MARCUS|43|12|17|72|59.72%|16.67%|23.61%
OSHIE, TJ|37|15|8|60|61.67%|25.00%|13.33%
OVECHKIN, ALEX|95|47|50|192|49.48%|24.48%|26.04%
BEAGLE, JAY|36|7|5|48|75.00%|14.58%|10.42%
BURAKOVSKY, ANDRE|40|17|30|87|45.98%|19.54%|34.48%
WINNIK, DANIEL|12|6|2|20|60.00%|30.00%|10.00%
KUZNETSOV, EVGENY|40|17|28|85|47.06%|20.00%|32.94%
CONNOLLY, BRETT|22|5|8|35|62.86%|14.29%|22.86%
CARLSON, JOHN|59|39|34|132|44.70%|29.55%|25.76%
ORLOV, DMITRY|39|17|20|76|51.32%|22.37%|26.32%
SCHMIDT, NATE|24|10|17|51|47.06%|19.61%|33.33%
NISKANEN, MATT|47|23|39|109|43.12%|21.10%|35.78%
ORPIK, BROOKS|26|9|20|55|47.27%|16.36%|36.36%
WILLIAMS, JUSTIN|52|30|21|103|50.49%|29.13%|20.39%
ELLER, LARS|30|17|15|62|48.39%|27.42%|24.19%
ALZNER, KARL|27|10|16|53|50.94%|18.87%|30.19%
SANFORD, ZACHARY|17|6|9|32|53.13%|18.75%|28.13%
WILSON, TOM|25|5|13|43|58.14%|11.63%|30.23%

Sorting by % of shots on goal, it's no surprise to see Carlson and Niskanen at the bottom (to be fair, you would expect defensemen to be near the bottom, but they still seem to be missing a lot of shots for being the two PP point-men). Also no surprise to see Backstrom near the top to which I say: keep shooting the puck Nick.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

See if anyone gets this....

 

[Alexander the Gr8]

Hivemind already posted it for 5v5, but I did all-situations (rather than 5v5 only, since power play misses are very apparent):

Player Name|Shots on goal|Missed shots|Blocked shots|Total shot attempts|% of shots on goal|% of shots missed|% of shots blocked
BACKSTROM, NICKLAS|52|12|11|75|69.33%|16.00%|14.67%
JOHANSSON, MARCUS|43|12|17|72|59.72%|16.67%|23.61%
OSHIE, TJ|37|15|8|60|61.67%|25.00%|13.33%
OVECHKIN, ALEX|95|47|50|192|49.48%|24.48%|26.04%
BEAGLE, JAY|36|7|5|48|75.00%|14.58%|10.42%
BURAKOVSKY, ANDRE|40|17|30|87|45.98%|19.54%|34.48%
WINNIK, DANIEL|12|6|2|20|60.00%|30.00%|10.00%
KUZNETSOV, EVGENY|40|17|28|85|47.06%|20.00%|32.94%
CONNOLLY, BRETT|22|5|8|35|62.86%|14.29%|22.86%
CARLSON, JOHN|59|39|34|132|44.70%|29.55%|25.76%
ORLOV, DMITRY|39|17|20|76|51.32%|22.37%|26.32%
SCHMIDT, NATE|24|10|17|51|47.06%|19.61%|33.33%
NISKANEN, MATT|47|23|39|109|43.12%|21.10%|35.78%
ORPIK, BROOKS|26|9|20|55|47.27%|16.36%|36.36%
WILLIAMS, JUSTIN|52|30|21|103|50.49%|29.13%|20.39%
ELLER, LARS|30|17|15|62|48.39%|27.42%|24.19%
ALZNER, KARL|27|10|16|53|50.94%|18.87%|30.19%
SANFORD, ZACHARY|17|6|9|32|53.13%|18.75%|28.13%
WILSON, TOM|25|5|13|43|58.14%|11.63%|30.23%

Sorting by % of shots on goal, it's no surprise to see Carlson and Niskanen at the bottom (to be fair, you would expect defensemen to be near the bottom, but they still seem to be missing a lot of shots for being the two PP point-men). Also no surprise to see Backstrom near the top to which I say: keep shooting the puck Nick.

Excellent work twabby. So Carlson misses 1/3 shots high or wide. God his accuracy is garbage, he shoots hard but shooting a 100 mph slap shot wide is useless. No surprise seeing Kuzy and Burt at the bottom, they shoot when they should pass and vice versa.

 

[g00n]

You'd expect to see d-men getting a higher percentage of shots blocked. But Kuz and Bura are among the worst on the team. I doubt defenses are focusing on blocking their shots more than other players, so they're just not taking the quality shots or else they're not placing them well enough. They're pressing pretty hard. Can't even get half their shots on net, and then 1/3 of those are blocked. Bad.

Look at the percentages for NB, Beagle, Oshie and Mojo. Pretty good. Now look at the on-net % for Beagle and NB. Tells the story.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Interesting trade discussion on Trade boards. Mat Dumba, upgrade over Orlov? Loved him at draft time, but haven't seen him play much this year. The ask is a decent RW.

1 more year left at $2.55 cap hit, then a RFA. Scored 8 his first full season, 10g 26 pts the last year.

Pack your bags Burt!


Interested to hear opinions. What do his underlying numbers look like?

 

[txpd]

dumba is probably not an upgrade offensively and right now that is the issue. trade for him and him be better than orlov and he is the guy snagged in the ex draft.

the salary cap would be an issue if burt was going. it would have to be burt and winnik

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Does he need to be an upgrade offensively (10+16 is pretty good for his first real full season (81 games)? If he's an upgrade defensively and is a lateral move on the other side of the ice, seems like a win.

 

[txpd]

Does he need to be an upgrade offensively (10+16 is pretty good for his first real full season (81 games)? If he's an upgrade defensively and is a lateral move on the other side of the ice, seems like a win.

would you trade burakovsky for a rental?

 

[Capathetic]

It still amazes me the Alzner is the goals leader from the defense. Carlson gets the most opertunities while Schmidt has had the best chances to put them in this season imo. Orlov has created some great chances of late too.

This has to turn around at some point. It's funny that prior to this season Trotz mentioned more scoring from the defense this year and they've gone this dry.

 

[Hivemind]

I really wish either BehindTheNet or SportingCharts was updating their shooting data for 2016-17. At the very least I'd like to add an adverage shot distance column to twabby's chart. But SportingCharts used to have so much more data, including heat maps for shots.

 

[twabby]

I really wish either BehindTheNet or SportingCharts was updating their shooting data for 2016-17. At the very least I'd like to add an adverage shot distance column to twabby's chart. But SportingCharts used to have so much more data, including heat maps for shots.

corsica.hockey has average shot distances but sadly no heat map or location data. Adding the shot distance column:

Player Name|Shots on goal|Missed shots|Blocked shots|Total shot attempts|% of shots on goal|% of shots missed|% of shots blocked|Avg. shot distance
BACKSTROM, NICKLAS|52|12|11|75|69.33%|16.00%|14.67%|30.12
JOHANSSON, MARCUS|43|12|17|72|59.72%|16.67%|23.61%|24.67
OSHIE, TJ|37|15|8|60|61.67%|25.00%|13.33%|23.67
OVECHKIN, ALEX|95|47|50|192|49.48%|24.48%|26.04%|33.65
BEAGLE, JAY|36|7|5|48|75.00%|14.58%|10.42%|25.69
BURAKOVSKY, ANDRE|40|17|30|87|45.98%|19.54%|34.48%|29.32
WINNIK, DANIEL|12|6|2|20|60.00%|30.00%|10.00%|30.17
KUZNETSOV, EVGENY|40|17|28|85|47.06%|20.00%|32.94%|30.27
CONNOLLY, BRETT|22|5|8|35|62.86%|14.29%|22.86%|23.93
CARLSON, JOHN|59|39|34|132|44.70%|29.55%|25.76%|51.48
ORLOV, DMITRY|39|17|20|76|51.32%|22.37%|26.32%|44.04
SCHMIDT, NATE|24|10|17|51|47.06%|19.61%|33.33%|48.85
NISKANEN, MATT|47|23|39|109|43.12%|21.10%|35.78%|48.21
ORPIK, BROOKS|26|9|20|55|47.27%|16.36%|36.36%|52.37
WILLIAMS, JUSTIN|52|30|21|103|50.49%|29.13%|20.39%|26.47
ELLER, LARS|30|17|15|62|48.39%|27.42%|24.19%|27.09
ALZNER, KARL|27|10|16|53|50.94%|18.87%|30.19%|50.51
SANFORD, ZACHARY|17|6|9|32|53.13%|18.75%|28.13%|28.71
WILSON, TOM|25|5|13|43|58.14%|11.63%|30.23%|26.11

No surprise to see the likes of Oshie, Beagle, and Johansson near the top of the list and it's not really a surprise to see Ovechkin as the forward whose shots are farthest away. Even during his career years Ovechkin's shots tend to be from distance because, well, he shoots from everywhere.