Player Discussion: 2019-2020 Goaltending

[AlphaLackey]

The book is much larger than 6 preseason periods. Maybe this previous tale was not a best seller so is being forgotten....

2018-19 Reg Season: Brossoit was .925 . Hellebuyck was .913

.925 on 652 shots against. The tale is barely 1/3rd written. This is part of the whole "variance in SV% is insane" thing. A Vezina goalie has a 1 in 6 chance *through nothing but dumb luck alone* of putting up a league average SV% for a 15 game stretch. That's about 450 shots against.

Laurent Brossoit: .911 in 1,221 career shots against
Hellebuyck: .913 in 1,872 shots last year; .915 in 5,817 career shots against.

 

[AlphaLackey]

Brossoit had a 0.955 save pct and 1.00 GAA in the preaseason. How is it possible he’s not allowed to challenge for the #1 job, or at least alternating starts?

He's always allowed to. If he fails to, just don't confuse his inability to win the job with politics keeping him down, that's all.

 

[Ggg99]

He's always allowed to. If he fails to, just don't confuse his inability to win the job with politics keeping him down, that's all.

.925 on 652 shots against. The tale is barely 1/3rd written. This is part of the whole "variance in SV% is insane" thing. A Vezina goalie has a 1 in 6 chance *through nothing but dumb luck alone* of putting up a league average SV% for a 15 game stretch. That's about 450 shots against.

Laurent Brossoit: .911 in 1,221 career shots against
Hellebuyck: .913 in 1,872 shots last year; .915 in 5,817 career shots against.

Sure Brossoit sucked for periods playing for a crappy Edmonton team and that brings his career number down to 911.

My argument uses his stats for last year since both he and Hellybuyck played behind the same Jets team so is the best comparison of the two goalies. And for that sampling Brossoit was better. As he was in the pre-season which is a small sample size but is relevant as it's an indicator of how they are performing out of the gate.

 

[Jets4Life]

Sure Brossoit sucked for periods playing for a crappy Edmonton team and that brings his career number down to 911.

My argument uses his stats for last year since both he and Hellybuyck played behind the same Jets team so is the best comparison of the two goalies. And for that sampling Brossoit was better. As he was in the pre-season which is a small sample size but is relevant as it's an indicator of how they are performing out of the gate.

We have seen this before with Montoya and Hutchinson. Both goalies had exceptional seasons for the Jets as backup goalies. However, they could not sustain their level of play for a longer duration of play. Brossoit had has a good season as an Oilers backup (2016-17) and a mediocre season as a backup (2017-18).I hope he continues to play well, but saying he should be the starting goalie for the Jets is somewhat premature.

 

[Jets4Life]

is Helle the worst starter in the division?

No.

Better than:

Corey Crawford (Chicago)- turning 35 and over the hill.
Jordan Binnington (st.Louis)- same age as Helle, but has only played 1/2 a season in the NHL. Could come back to Earth easily.
Davan Dubnyk (Minnesota)- age 33. Past his prime, and receding. Inferior stats to Helle since 2017.

Similar to:

Pekka Rinne (nashville)- age 37. Performs well during regular season, but has bombed in the playoffs for two years in a row.
Phillip Grubner (Colorado) comparable stats to Hellebuyck, with fewer games played.
Robin Lehner (Chicago) signed with Chicago in off-season. Could replace Crawford as starter.

Inferior to:

Ben Bishop (Dallas)- one of the best goalies in the league.

 

[AlphaLackey]

Sure Brossoit sucked for periods playing for a crappy Edmonton team and that brings his career number down to 911.

My argument uses his stats for last year since both he and Hellybuyck played behind the same Jets team so is the best comparison of the two goalies. And for that sampling Brossoit was better. As he was in the pre-season which is a small sample size but is relevant as it's an indicator of how they are performing out of the gate.

That exact logic also concludes that Christopher Gibson is a better goalie than Vezina finalist Robin Lehrer and that Landon Bow is a better goalie than Vezina finalist Ben Bishop.

 

[DannyGallivan]

Geez...you must have been great to listen to during the Pavelec years.

What part of better than average do you not understand about Hellebuyck? He has been above average for the past two seasons. With the way you are going on about him, one would think Eric Comrie started in net for 3/4 of the past season.

Here's the thing, like it or not: Hellebuyck was very effective two seasons ago. Last year he was inconsistent and rarely gave us clutch goaltending. He stunk in the pre-season. So, which Hellebuyck shows up for the regular season this year? We'll see...

 

[DRW204]

No.

Better than:

Corey Crawford (Chicago)- turning 35 and over the hill.
Jordan Binnington (st.Louis)- same age as Helle, but has only played 1/2 a season in the NHL. Could come back to Earth easily.
Davan Dubnyk (Minnesota)- age 33. Past his prime, and receding. Inferior stats to Helle since 2017.

Similar to:

Pekka Rinne (nashville)- age 37. Performs well during regular season, but has bombed in the playoffs for two years in a row.
Phillip Grubner (Colorado) comparable stats to Hellebuyck, with fewer games played.
Robin Lehner (Chicago) signed with Chicago in off-season. Could replace Crawford as starter.

Inferior to:

Ben Bishop (Dallas)- one of the best goalies in the league.

just coming off last year, Helle would rank last in SV% and GSAA of all the starters in the division. He didn't look great in the POs and (i know it's only pre-season) his pre-season play didn't really instill any confidence. he's had 1 good year

 

[Gil Fisher]

Sure Brossoit sucked for periods playing for a crappy Edmonton team and that brings his career number down to 911.

My argument uses his stats for last year since both he and Hellybuyck played behind the same Jets team so is the best comparison of the two goalies. And for that sampling Brossoit was better. As he was in the pre-season which is a small sample size but is relevant as it's an indicator of how they are performing out of the gate.

If you're into arbitrary endpoints to justify your save percentage, why not use the second half of last year for Brossoit's and see what you get. At the end of the day, you need about 3000 shots against to reliably set expectations going forward, so use that largest size you can get for Brossoit (which gives you a .911) and the last 100 games approximately for Helly (which gives you .918).

Now anecdotally, I agree that Brossoit is likely better than a .911, but based on the second half of last year, it remains to be seen.

 

[Jets4Life]

just coming off last year, Helle would rank last in SV% and GSAA of all the starters in the division. He didn't look great in the POs and (i know it's only pre-season) his pre-season play didn't really instill any confidence. he's had 1 good year

Can you entertain the forum with stats to back up your claims?

 

[kylbaz]

.925 on 652 shots against. The tale is barely 1/3rd written. This is part of the whole "variance in SV% is insane" thing. A Vezina goalie has a 1 in 6 chance *through nothing but dumb luck alone* of putting up a league average SV% for a 15 game stretch. That's about 450 shots against.

Laurent Brossoit: .911 in 1,221 career shots against
Hellebuyck: .913 in 1,872 shots last year; .915 in 5,817 career shots against.

And Brossoit played for the Oilers for half of that, so it's not a good comparison.
I would absolutely love for Helle to prove me wrong, but I've had zero confidence in him since we lost to Vegas a couple years ago. I said he was mediocre vs Vegas and got jumped on my fans here saying he played well. Then he went on with his mediocre play for the next year and another mediocre playoff. I wonder how many that jumped on me for saying he was mediocre vs Vegas now have the same sentiments. He's shown he can be amazing, but often he is letting in soft goals. I'm sure the team has little confidence in him. Like I said I hope he can go back to how he was a couple years ago during the regular season and prove me wrong. Is Brossoit the guy? Probably not, but he deserves a chance if Helle looks bad again. I'll sound like a broken record but with good goaltending we should have at the very least been in the finals last two years.

 

[leer2006]

just coming off last year, Helle would rank last in SV% and GSAA of all the starters in the division. He didn't look great in the POs and (i know it's only pre-season) his pre-season play didn't really instill any confidence. he's had 1 good year

Do you think the equipment change has really affected his game that much. Does his style of play require the bigger pads?

 

[Ggg99]

If you're into arbitrary endpoints to justify your save percentage, why not use the second half of last year for Brossoit's and see what you get. At the end of the day, you need about 3000 shots against to reliably set expectations going forward, so use that largest size you can get for Brossoit (which gives you a .911) and the last 100 games approximately for Helly (which gives you .918).

Now anecdotally, I agree that Brossoit is likely better than a .911, but based on the second half of last year, it remains to be seen.

Nothing arbitrary about comparing two goalies playing behind the same team over the course of the latest full season.

 

[DRW204]

Can you entertain the forum with stats to back up your claims?

2018-19 NHL Goalie Statistics | Hockey-Reference.com

GSAA:
Bishop (1st)
Lehner (3rd)
Binnington (12th)
Rinne (14th)
Grubauer (16th)
Dubnyk (19th)
Helle (20th)

SV% (min 32 games)
Bishop (1st)
Lehner (2nd)
Binnington (4th)
Rinne (11th)
Grubauer (14th)
Dubnyk (17th)
Helle (18th)

He was on par with Dubnyk last year.

looking at the last 3 seasons (all strengths)

Player	SV%
Jordan Binnington	0.927
Pekka Rinne	0.921
Ben Bishop	0.921
Philipp Grubauer	0.921
Robin Lehner	0.919
Devan Dubnyk	0.918
Connor Hellebuyck	0.915

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Player	GSAA/60
Jordan Binnington	0.39
Pekka Rinne	0.29
Philipp Grubauer	0.29
Ben Bishop	0.26
Robin Lehner	0.24
Devan Dubnyk	0.19
Connor Hellebuyck	0.11

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

obviously Binnington only has played like half a season and is still a question mark. I doubt Binnington will be playing at that high of a level however STL was one of the better teams in the league at limiting Shots allowed (CA, SA) and quality chances (xGA) so his job is relatively easier. I think Helle will have to over-perform a lot this year given our D personnel

 

[nobody imp0rtant]

Do you think the equipment change has really affected his game that much. Does his style of play require the bigger pads?

I recall him complaining about the equipment changes. I also think Helly is volatile enough that he might have let that get into his head. I don't think it takes much to throw him off his game. I'm surprised teams don't use that strategy more.

 

[DannyGallivan]

Do you think the equipment change has really affected his game that much. Does his style of play require the bigger pads?

His dip in play seemed to coincide with the new pads. It actually hurt more goalies than him. Some were able to adjust, some not so much.

 

[Gil Fisher]

Nothing arbitrary about comparing two goalies playing behind the same team over the course of the latest full season.

maybe not arbitrary, but selective enough to capture the only significant hot streak of his career.

 

[Ducky10]

His dip in play seemed to coincide with the new pads. It actually hurt more goalies than him. Some were able to adjust, some not so much.

Lowest league average sv% in 10 years. Definitely more than a coincidence.

 

[Jetfaninflorida]

Have you bothered to look up actual stats on Hellebuyck ?

After All Star break, Hellebuyck was well above average for NHL goalies, even finishing 0.926% during the month of March. For the season, he finished with a 0.913% saving percentage, which was better than the league average of 0.909%. He even outplayed Binnington in the series against St.Louis (0.913 vs 0.908).

Some people will be critical of anyone and anything,

Helle was ~ average last year. He sure gets paid a lot to be ~ average. Brossoit was better and underutilized by Maurice. Being better than Binnington is no great feat, Binnington is crap.

 

[Jets4Life]

Helle was ~ average last year. He sure gets paid a lot to be ~ average. Brossoit was better and underutilized by Maurice.

You are revising history.You may want to go back a couple of pages in this thread in look at ACTUAL stats after All-Star break. Brossoit was horrible. He went 3-5-1 down the stretch, with a sub 0.900 record. Hellebuyck was lights out in March, going 0.926%.

Sorry if I sound rude, but it's frustrating to keep pointing out that Brossoit was horrible down the stretch. Maurice, with the exception of starting Comrie in one game, definitely made the right decisions.

In fact, the season was eerily familiar with the 2014-15 season, when Hutch was on fire until All Star break, when teams figured him out. Maybe that could have been what occurred with Brossoit.

 

[Gm0ney]

Helle was ~ average last year. He sure gets paid a lot to be ~ average. Brossoit was better and underutilized by Maurice. Being better than Binnington is no great feat, Binnington is crap.

Hellebuyck's paid slightly more than average. The average cap hit percentage for the Top 31 highest paid goalies is 7.21%. Hellebuyck's cap hit percentage is 7.8%. He was signed coming off a season where he was a Vezina finalist and just led the Jets to the WCF.

Now it's probably a generally bad idea to pay a goalie that much for that long, but it's certainly defensible.

 

[DRW204]

Binnington had one really bad game against the Jets in the PO's the one he let in 6. But other than that game which drags down his sv% considerably in a 6 game sample, I thought he was solid, especially considering being a 'rookie' tendy with 32 nhl games to his name. Stl is a stout defensive team though that helps him out.

 

[Ducky10]

Helle was ~ average last year. He sure gets paid a lot to be ~ average. Brossoit was better and underutilized by Maurice. Being better than Binnington is no great feat, Binnington is crap.

Actually with the league average sv% being .910 and Helle being .913, he was by definition, above average.

Binnington is crap because you say so?

 

[Jetfaninflorida]

Actually with the league average sv% being .910 and Helle being .913, he was by definition, above average.

Binnington is crap because you say so?

That's what the squiggly line thing means. "~" means about or approximately. So I said Helle was about average last year, as proven by the sv% you posted. Yes, slightly above league average last year.

Binnington is crap because Helle was better.

 

[Ducky10]

That's what the squiggly line thing means. "~" means about or approximately. So I said Helle was about average last year, as proven by the sv% you posted. Yes, slightly above league average last year.

Binnington is crap because Helle was better.

Thank you.