Player Discussion: 2019-2020 Goaltending

[GaryPoppins]

Curious to see how this year shakes out in terms of our goaltending.

Hellebuyck seems tough to read, IMO. He was fantastic the first year, struggled second, played out of his mind the next, and was superbly average the next.

Leads me to ask this.... If Hellebuyck has another "down" year and Brossoit continues to trend upward, do we then explore the possibility of moving Hellebuyck and going with Brossoit?

As I mentioned, very interested to see how Helle plays this year.

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[surixon]

Curious to see how this year shakes out in terms of our goaltending.

Hellebuyck seems tough to read, IMO. He was fantastic the first year, struggled second, played out of his mind the next, and was superbly average the next.

Leads me to ask this.... If Hellebuyck has another "down" year and Brossoit continues to trend upward, do we then explore the possibility of moving Hellebuyck and going with Brossoit?

As I mentioned, very interested to see how Helle plays this year.

Helle has enough of a sample that a safe bet would be around .915 save percentage. He really has only had one down year in his career the other years he has been league average or better.

I am going to say he finishes a bit over his average and posts a .918 this season which is all we will need.

Brossoit has alternated between very good and non NHL levels his whole career but the sample is incredibly small at 49 games. I don't think he is a starter but I think he is a quality backup even if he gives us his career average save percentage of .911

 

[Derfel]

Hellebuyck will likely put up ~0.910 save percentage this year, which will be "good enough".

Brossoit will have slightly better numbers but will be retained in a back-up position and really only see limited service.

 

[Whileee]

I'm bullish on Hellebuyck. I think he's driven to improve and works hard and he has a lot of strong assets. I think the Jets goaltending will be a considerable strength this season, and they will probably need it to be good.

 

[Zhamnov5GoalGame]

I thought Helle rebounded from his terrible start last year.
We wasted some pretty good efforts from him in the second half with our bone headed play.

Hopefully he can stand tall with our new D.
Especially early in the year while the team figures itself out.

 

[ps241]

On my two things I said we need to have a big season I think I mentioned Helly being back in the Vezina conversation and Laine getting 50 goals.

I am hopeful our team returns to a playing like a hungry group and our forwards defend away better this season especially our top 9.

If we hang Helly out to dry this could be a long season but I am hopeful he carries us a bit.

 

[Eyeseeing]

I thought Helle rebounded from his terrible start last year.
We wasted some pretty good efforts from him in the second half with our bone headed play.

Hopefully he can stand tall with our new D.
Especially early in the year while the team figures itself out.

Agree he finished strong not worried about either one truthfully.

 

[Jets 31]

Helly had a weak start to the season last year but Brossoit played very good to save our ass . Second part of the year Helly played much better and Brossoit came back to earth . If both come out with slow starts we could be in big trouble , but i think Helly carries us to the playoffs .

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Curious to see how this year shakes out in terms of our goaltending.

Hellebuyck seems tough to read, IMO. He was fantastic the first year, struggled second, played out of his mind the next, and was superbly average the next.

Leads me to ask this.... If Hellebuyck has another "down" year and Brossoit continues to trend upward, do we then explore the possibility of moving Hellebuyck and going with Brossoit?

As I mentioned, very interested to see how Helle plays this year.

That might or might not become an interesting question at some point. I think it is premature to ask it now.

I think you overstate Helle's inconsistency. He was good in his first year, in a limited role, 26 games. He was mediocre in his 2nd year, his first full year as the starter. He has been very good and good since then. His .913 last year might look like a substantial drop from the year before but the league avg sv% was down last year. He was still above avg.

 

[Gm0ney]

Hellebuyck's a pretty good goalie - the best in Jets 2.0 history for sure...but I'm less confident in his abilities than I once was.

There are some fancy stats that suggest he's not really Vezina quality
2018-19 (1000+ TOI):
5v5 SV%: .920 - 27th (the Top 10 are .930+)
5v5 HDSV%: .807 - 41st (top 10 are .852+)
All Situations GSAA/60: 0.09 - 26th ( top 10 are 0.37+)

His numbers were better in 2017-18 (16th in 5v5 SV%, 28th in 5v5 HDSV% and 10th in All Situations GSAA/60)...still not Vezina quality but pretty good.

From my flawed eye-test I find he gives up some weak goals - backbreakers - and he's a terrible puck handler. Certainly had a bad game vs. the Blues when we needed a good one out of him. And I (maybe unfairly) blame him for a lot of what went wrong in the Vegas series the year before (Jets would dominate for long stretches, finally score then less than a minute later he lets in a soft one and there goes all the momentum and wind in our sails).

Brossoit had a good run but I'll be quite surprised if he comes close to matching his performance last season (.925 and a 13-6-2 record).

 

[surixon]

Hellebuyck's a pretty good goalie - the best in Jets 2.0 history for sure...but I'm less confident in his abilities than I once was.

There are some fancy stats that suggest he's not really Vezina quality
2018-19 (1000+ TOI):
5v5 SV%: .920 - 27th (the Top 10 are .930+)
5v5 HDSV%: .807 - 41st (top 10 are .852+)
All Situations GSAA/60: 0.09 - 26th ( top 10 are 0.37+)

His numbers were better in 2017-18 (16th in 5v5 SV%, 28th in 5v5 HDSV% and 10th in All Situations GSAA/60)...still not Vezina quality but pretty good.

From my flawed eye-test I find he gives up some weak goals - backbreakers - and he's a terrible puck handler. Certainly had a bad game vs. the Blues when we needed a good one out of him. And I (maybe unfairly) blame him for a lot of what went wrong in the Vegas series the year before (Jets would dominate for long stretches, finally score then less than a minute later he lets in a soft one and there goes all the momentum and wind in our sails).

Brossoit had a good run but I'll be quite surprised if he comes close to matching his performance last season (.925 and a 13-6-2 record).

What are the minimum requirements to be eligible to be on the list? One minimum number of games, shots or minutes etc. That could impact the results quite a bit if there are a number of goalies with far smaller sample sizes on the list.

 

[heilongjetsfan]

What are the minimum requirements to be eligible to be on the list? One minimum number of games, shots or minutes etc. That could impact the results quite a bit if there are a number of goalies with far smaller sample sizes on the list.

He said over 1000 minutes.

 

[SUX2BU]

Goaltending won't be the issue this year

Defense, on the other hand ......

 

[heilongjetsfan]

Hellebuyck's a pretty good goalie - the best in Jets 2.0 history for sure...but I'm less confident in his abilities than I once was.

There are some fancy stats that suggest he's not really Vezina quality
2018-19 (1000+ TOI):
5v5 SV%: .920 - 27th (the Top 10 are .930+)
5v5 HDSV%: .807 - 41st (top 10 are .852+)
All Situations GSAA/60: 0.09 - 26th ( top 10 are 0.37+)

His numbers were better in 2017-18 (16th in 5v5 SV%, 28th in 5v5 HDSV% and 10th in All Situations GSAA/60)...still not Vezina quality but pretty good.

From my flawed eye-test I find he gives up some weak goals - backbreakers - and he's a terrible puck handler. Certainly had a bad game vs. the Blues when we needed a good one out of him. And I (maybe unfairly) blame him for a lot of what went wrong in the Vegas series the year before (Jets would dominate for long stretches, finally score then less than a minute later he lets in a soft one and there goes all the momentum and wind in our sails).

Brossoit had a good run but I'll be quite surprised if he comes close to matching his performance last season (.925 and a 13-6-2 record).

As far as backbreakers go, he's one of the last guys I blame for the Blues series. You could see the guys in front of him settling in just before we gave up critical goals. Scheif can call it pastrami or smoked turkey or whatever deli meat he wants, but they didn't seem to want to win if they had to fight for it.
I also don't think it's fair to hang the WCF loss at his feet. Blame McPhacker, blame Lawless or give Flowers the credit he deserves.

 

[surixon]

He said over 1000 minutes.

Must have missed that. Whoops. Having said 1000 minutes results to 17 ish full games which isn't a sufficient sample imo.

He likely should be compared against other starters so likely 41 ish games played or roughly 2500 minutes played.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

As far as backbreakers go, he's one of the last guys I blame for the Blues series. You could see the guys in front of him settling in just before we gave up critical goals. Scheif can call it pastrami or smoked turkey or whatever deli meat he wants, but they didn't seem to want to win if they had to fight for it.
I also don't think it's fair to hang the WCF loss at his feet. Blame McPhacker, blame Lawless or give Flowers the credit he deserves.

I think some people are forgetting that last game against the Blues. We were down 3 games to 2 and had the opportunity to tie the series. The Jets just completely failed to show up. The whole team. No way you can hang that on Helle. The Jets played like it was a pre-season game. It was embarrassing to watch.

 

[surixon]

Something else to keep in mind, over the last two years Helle is 5th in playoff save percentage among all goalies who have played at least 10 games with a very solid .919. So while 23 games isn't a huge sample size he has shown so far that he performs very well in the playoffs.

 

[GaryPoppins]

Agree he finished strong not worried about either one truthfully.

He also lost game 2 for us in the series vs St.Louis. Team played well enough to win.

 

[Huffer]

He also lost game 2 for us in the series vs St.Louis. Team played well enough to win.

Agreed. And when the Jets went up 2 in game 5, IIRC, he let in a softie to get them back in.

The whole team did lay an egg in game 6 though. That was an embarassment.

 

[Eyeseeing]

He also lost game 2 for us in the series vs St.Louis. Team played well enough to win.

Yeah players have bad games, he was also statistically better than the Binner for the series.

 

[rubikscube]

I think some people are forgetting that last game against the Blues. We were down 3 games to 2 and had the opportunity to tie the series. The Jets just completely failed to show up. The whole team. No way you can hang that on Helle. The Jets played like it was a pre-season game. It was embarrassing to watch.

Exactly. We were outshot like 35-12 or something

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Exactly. We were outshot like 35-12 or something

Something like that - and that flattered us. We could have done as well sending the Moose.

 

[QuietContrarian]

Helle has enough of a sample that a safe bet would be around .915 save percentage. He really has only had one down year in his career the other years he has been league average or better.

I am going to say he finishes a bit over his average and posts a .918 this season which is all we will need.

Brossoit has alternated between very good and non NHL levels his whole career but the sample is incredibly small at 49 games. I don't think he is a starter but I think he is a quality backup even if he gives us his career average save percentage of .911

Pretty much this..

 

[White Out 902]

Bump.

So. Not good so far for Helley huh

 

[tbcwpg]

I guess after these two preseason games, Hellebuyck is a write-off?

I'm really hoping this season doesn't turn into Pavelec era type posts of three page analysis of every goal against, but based off of the preseason I think that will be the case.