Speculation: 2017 - 2018 Roster Discussion

[rt]

There's an emerging body of evidence that the most important factor for prospect development is quality of linemates, not usage or quality of competition. This is especially true for a playmaker, whose entire game is built around putting his linemates in a position to score. Strome needs good linemates to develop into the top six center we want him to become. If he's stuck with plugs at the NHL level, his development will stall or even regress.

The AHL is the right spot for him for now.

This is malarkey. His AHL linemates will be trash and his NHL linemates would be solid.

Support:

So you're okay with letting Strome develop into the NHL by playing 4th line minutes with two plugs? Because that's exactly where he was slotted and it isn't going to change for a while.

This isn't binary. It's not either he's in the AHL or he's on a 4th line getting no minutes in the NHL.

In his two games in the NHL this season Strome averaged 10 mins of EV TOI/GP and 2 mins of PP TOI/GP.
Christian Dvorak has averaged 12.5 mins of EV TOI/GP and 3 mins of PP TOI/GP.
I'd say go ahead and reverse the PP usage there. Make Strome the #2 PP C after Stepan, rather than Dvorak.

Let's look at our "centers" in terms of number of face-offs taken per game:
1. Stepan - 21
2. Dvorak - 17
3. Richardson - 14
4. Strome - 9
5. Cousins - 7

Nick Cousins has averaged 13 mins of EV TOI/GP and nearly a minute of PP TOI/GP.
Domi-Stepan-Keller averages about 16 EV TOI/GP and Nick Cousins is currently the 4th highest among all forwards in EV TOI/GP.
Number 5 is Dvorak with 12.5
Number 6 is Fischer with 12
Number 7 is Rieder with 12
Number 8 is Richardson with 11
Number 9 is Duclair with 11
Number 10 is Martinook with 10.5
Number 11 is Crouse with 10
Number 12 is Strome with 10

So line number one is roughly 16
Line number two is roughly 12 EV
Line number three is roughly 11
Line number four is roughy 10 EV

Let's build them:
Domi-Stepan-Keller 16 min EV TOI
Perlini-Dvorak-Duclair 12 min EV TOI (Duclair gets an extra minute as a result)
Rieder-Strome-Fischer 11 min EV TOI (Fischer and Rieder drop a minute while Strome picks one up)
Crouse-Richards-Nook 10 mins EV TOI (Richardson loses one minute and Nook loses half of one)

So that's Strome with 11mins EVTOI/GP and 3mins of PP TOI/GP for 14mins TOI/GP total (up the 12mins he's already averaged) - on the 3rd line with talented scoring wingers in Rieder and Fischer.
What's bad about that? Seems fine to me. Not outgrageous. Not even too far off of reality in the four games we've already played.

Domi-Stepan-Keller
Perlini-Dvorak-Duclair
Rieder-Strome-Fischer
Crouse-Richardson-Nook
Cousins

...is a balanced, scrub free line-up.

You could even tinker and go...

Perlini-Stepan-Keller
Domi-Dvorak-Duclair
Rieder-Strome-Fischer
Crouse-Richardson-Nook
Cousins

or...

Rieder-Stepan-Keller
Domi-Dvorak-Duclair
Perlini-Strome-Fischer
Crouse-Richardson-Nook
Cousins

...and it still works. And Strome still has reasonable minutes and reasonable linemates without it hurting more worthy players.

In ANY of those scenarios the only guy getting totally screwed over is Nick Cousins. By icing the roster we have the last three games, instead of the three rosters I just posted above, all we have done with minutes and linemates is choose Cousins over Strome.

Strome is better than Cousins. That's closer to a binary scenario than the one you've proposed (4th line scrubs or AHL).

Speaking of Strome on a line with worthless scrubs; have you SEEN Tucson's current roster? Yikes. That's not going to help him much.

 

[PhoPhan]

There's all of two or three decent veteran wings on this roster. There aren't enough to go around. I'd rather him play with decent AHL guys against AHL competition than rookies or scrubs at the NHL level against NHL competition.

I don't know why he got the two games to start the year, but he belongs in the AHL for now.

 

[Jakey53]

Yea you are. I'm saying that a good player looks good regardless of who he plays with. In Strome's case, we'd see all those great passes to wings who do nothing with them. We'd see high quality shots when the puck is on his stick. We'd see great defensive plays.

Just like Kempe and Cousins? There is no way Strome should be in Tucson when you have these two on the roster. Would you rather have Cousins on the PP than Strome?

 

[Jakey53]

There's all of two or three decent veteran wings on this roster. There aren't enough to go around. I'd rather him play with decent AHL guys against AHL competition than rookies or scrubs at the NHL level against NHL competition.

I don't know why he got the two games to start the year, but he belongs in the AHL for now.

I disagree. If you play in the AHL, you are there for a reason, and that reason is you are not good enough for the NHL. Strome playing with rookies or scrubs in the NHL is much better than playing with scrubs in the AHL.

 

[Bonsai Tree]

Just like Kempe and Cousins? There is no way Strome should be in Tucson when you have these two on the roster. Would you rather have Cousins on the PP than Strome?

Sure, if you were in a "win now" situation, but we're not. We are still developing our best players. Some were ready for the NHL, Strome was not, so we let him develop more while we have scrubs playing on the team until Strome is ready to take their places.

 

[SniperHF]

Even with linemates of superior quality in the NHL, even relative to each league, I think Strome is better off in the AHL.

Our 2nd and third lines haven't done much at all. I don't think Strome is the difference maker there. So if he's playing over half his shifts in the NHL on his heels with the rest of his linemates because they are buried it's not much good for development even if his linemates are theoretically better in the NHL.

He's already in the AHL, might as well see what happens there for at least a few weeks worth of games. I'm not sure exactly where the team is at but if Strome goes down there and puts up some points (say .8 ppg or more) I'd be totally willing to call him right back up. Especially because the big club might be in better shape at that point.

 

[rt]

There's all of two or three decent veteran wings on this roster. There aren't enough to go around. I'd rather him play with decent AHL guys against AHL competition than rookies or scrubs at the NHL level against NHL competition.

I don't know why he got the two games to start the year, but he belongs in the AHL for now.

The Roadrunners don't have those. You are dealing in concepts that don't align with the reality of our specific situation.

All of Rieder, Duclair, Perlini, and Fisher are much higher caliber linemates than any of the the wingers in Tucson who aren't even good for AHLers. Etem is. Merkley MIGHT be. Garland is crape. Kempe is up here. There is nothing in Tucson for Strome to work with. That roster is a travesty.

If he stayed in Glendale he wouldn't get Domi or Keller. He also does NOT have to get stuck with Cousins or Kempe. Hell, he probably doesn't even have to get stuck with Martinook or Crouse, although both are sinificantly better than anyone in Tucson. He'd almost certainly get two of Rieder, Duclair, Perlini and Fischer. Much more talented and productive players than anyone in Tucson. This is clearly the better place for him.

 

[PhoPhan]

All of Rieder, Duclair, Perlini, and Fisher are much higher caliber linemates than any of the the wingers in Tucson who aren't even good for AHLers. Etem is. Merkley MIGHT be. Garland is crape. Kempe is up here. There is nothing in Tucson for Strome to work with. That roster is a travesty.

Relative to their AHL competition, Etem and Merkley are just fine. Kempe will probably return when Perlini is healthy again. There are no ringers like Cunningham or Mueller (and I agree that's less than ideal), but they'll be okay. Strome will also be getting top powerplay minutes and probably 15 minutes of ES time every night. It's still a step forward from the OHL, too.

If he stayed in Glendale he wouldn't get Domi or Keller. He also does NOT have to get stuck with Cousins or Kempe. Hell, he probably doesn't even have to get stuck with Martinook or Crouse, although both are sinificantly better than anyone in Tucson. He'd almost certainly get two of Rieder, Duclair, Perlini and Fischer. Much more talented and productive players than anyone in Tucson. This is clearly the better place for him.

Why would he "almost certainly" get two of those guys when he didn't in the first two games? Even so, Fischer is a rookie, Perlini might as well be, and Duclair has his own issues to sort out. Rieder is one of the few vets I was talking about, but he's been (and should be) deployed in a defensive role anyway.

I thought he looked okay in those two games, but obviously Tocchet didn't think he was good enough for top six minutes. If he's not going to put in that position, with quality veteran linemates, he should be tearing it up in the AHL.

 

[TheLegend]

Roadrunners should have their lineup posted about 5pm for the game in Bakersfield. So we'll see where Van Ryn slots Strome and with who.

 

[RemoAZ]

The Stome demotion was a panic move when none was needed. They certainly haven't played any better without him and they looked their best in the first game when he was in the line up. Now their offense is lagging when they could use an offensive center. Tocc probably won't call him up now because he doesn't want to look like he made a mistake.sending him down. Crap situation all the way around. Hopefully he at least plays with Metkley.

 

[PhoPhan]

Interesting. Where can I find this?

Most of what I'm going off of has been Twitter conversations I've observed over the past couple years and I'm having trouble finding a good explainer as it pertains to prospect development. Let me do some digging.

 

[TheLegend]

So it's Sislo - Strome - Merkley

 

[Bonsai Tree]

We saw the effect of poor goalies on both Calgary and the ass hats last year. Unless Raanta turns it around, we will have to address the goalie situation again this coming off season. We're not going anywhere with the play in our own net as it is.

 

[The Feckless Puck]

We saw the effect of poor goalies on both Calgary and the ass hats last year. Unless Raanta turns it around, we will have to address the goalie situation again this coming off season. We're not going anywhere with the play in our own net as it is.

We need a bigger sample size on Raanta.

 

[BUX7PHX]

The Stome demotion was a panic move when none was needed. They certainly haven't played any better without him and they looked their best in the first game when he was in the line up. Now their offense is lagging when they could use an offensive center. Tocc probably won't call him up now because he doesn't want to look like he made a mistake.sending him down. Crap situation all the way around. Hopefully he at least plays with Metkley.

I think it is less panic move and more exactly what Tocchet had discussed - players are taking themselves out of position trying to cover for others and the trickle down effect happens that way. Now, the question for a player like Strome is whether or not he is taking himself out of plays trying to cover for someone, or if he is not moving and making decisions at a quality enough pace so that it puts other players on his line in a position to where they have to cover for him. I think the latter is a definitive reason for why he was sent down. Get comfortable with competing fast and making quicker decisions on the ice. Then, we have to worry less about him being a liability as his game grows.

And it is not just Strome that is affected by this - many others are actually the former scenario where they are trying to do too much. Including some vets and some youth.

 

[The Feckless Puck]

Looks like Tocchet must be reading our threads...

 

[SniperHF]

Kempe at center eh? I don't remember him playing there in preseason

Richardson has definitely underwhelmed to start the season, wonder if he's getting a "maintenance" day?

 

[Bandit34]

Tocchet broke up the 1st line. Interesting. Lets see if this works.

 

[Grimes]

Dont like Reider with Domi on the top line but glad they are splitting up the offense, and Reider probably does deserve a shot up there.

How bad will the faceoff % be without Richardson in the lineup?

 

[Neighborhood Coyote]

Kempe at center eh? I don't remember him playing there in preseason

Richardson has definitely underwhelmed to start the season, wonder if he's getting a "maintenance" day?

Also, he's supposedly one of the RA's (rotating assistants), and honestly I haven't seen a ton from him at all. Just personally haven't noticed him out there much from what I have seen. Looks like the new lines will spread some of that offense out... we hope!

 

[SniperHF]

Tocchet broke up the 1st line. Interesting. Lets see if this works.

Last game they were completely shut down so in this case I think it's worth mixing it up. I was against splitting them up while the combo of Domi and Keller were putting up a point per game each. But Domi's turd of a game against Boston changed the calculation.

I still think Stepan is playing too many minutes as well. He's never been a 20+ minute guy and we're running him into the ground regardless of his conditioning coming in. Little easier to get away with that for wingers.

 

[TheLegend]

New look today.....



Translates to:

Domi - Stepan - Reider
Keller - Dvorak - Duclair
Cruise - Cousins - Fischer
Ronaldo - Kempe - Martinook

OEL - Hjalmarsson
Connauton - Demers
Goligoski - Schenn
Clendening

Richardson not on ice this morning.

 

[BlazingBlueAnt]

The fact that Zac Rinaldo is still on this roster after five games is horrifying

 

[BigDoaner]

Connauton - Demers

Kinda scared.

 

[RABBIT]

Demers play has picked up in my opinion. He was rusty the 1st 2 games but i like what iv'e seen since. KConn has been burned a few times so im not too high on him right now

Rinaldo will be fun to watch We need a spark. As long as he can avoid any additional minor penalties!