Player Discussion Zemgus Girgensons

[jvirk]

I think we see him as a top 6 winger not just next season but for years to come. That's probably where he's best suited to be. I believe at the end of the season TM stated that he sees Girgensons "somewhere in the top 6", so I'm going off that, as well as what I think of his play.

IF somehow we decide to roll 3 deep lines, I can see him centering the 3rd line, for example if we're in the playoffs or something. Otherwise I think he belongs on the 1st/2nd line as a winger. It would be nice to see him on a line with ROR just absolutely hounding the opposition for the puck.

 

[TalkingProuder]

I see him playing with Eichel on the second line. He might start the year at center and then move to wing. I doubt Buffalo moves him out of the top 6 as he is a much better 5 on 5 player than other options we have and could score 25-30 this year under the right conditions.

Long term I see him as a 2-way power forward.

 

[SamuraiArt]

Longterm, (and this is where the question is - because short-term he's essential - IMO) I see him on a Kane-Reinhart-Girgs line (With an Ennis-Eichel-O'Reilly line as first). Second line, big defensive matchups, crashing the net, creating turnovers, and generally being a P-I-T-A for opposing teams. I don't think calling him a second line player is doing him a disservice -- while, he's not the scoringest player we'll have, I'm certain that his tenacity will be a major difference maker when we compete for a cup.

 

[Correct]

I actually think it's pretty much the opposite. If this was all about the mental makeup then Girgensons would be a surefire superstar imho, but my fear is that some day he will reach a point where all his character and determination won't be enough to overcome the natural "skill-barrier" anymore. This point could come later in his career when he is already an established first line caliber player or it could come relatively soon, but I believe that for Zemgus the limit isn't determined by his mental attributes but by his talent or natural skill or however you wanna define it.

I actually had a few interestings discussions about this topic with a friend by the way who insists that there is no such thing as "talent", I didn't agree with him but it's a nice somewhat philosophical discussion to have

I couldn't disagree more.

The last few years there's been lots of "X can't be taught" ideas floating around sports, particularly in football.

For example: "Size can't be taught". Would you say Steph Curry has the size to be the MVP, NBA Champion, and future HOFer he is? What about Russell Wilson and Drew Brees? Future HOFer Martin St. Louis? Danny Briere? Tyler Ennis?

The point is, even if something limits you, it can always be overcome in some other way. They say if a determined will can't go through something, it finds a way around it, over it, or underneath it. What that means is that, wherever Zemgus is limited, if he finds a unique way to overcome it (like the way Gretzky found a way to overcome every limitation he had) then not only will he be as good as other players, but better.

When they did a sociological paper on swimmers, they found that the biggest difference between the highest levels had nothing to do with talent, but HOW they did things DIFFERENT from others. How hard you worked didn't matter, if you were doing things the wrong way. The other 2 main points were discipline and attitude.

How far can talent get you if you wasted too much energy on your slap shot motion, or your backchecking. A far less skilled player would outplay you if he performed the moves more efficiently. That's where the relentless, driven players like Girgensons get ahead.

You could argue that if you watched him 5 years ago, you'd think the way he's playing now is above his ceiling. With your argument, that would already be impossible.

 

[Chainshot]

He fits wherever Bylsma puts him and he'll fit there well. Wing, center... it matters not.

 

[7 11 14]

Girgensons-O'Reilly-Reinhart

Good luck scoring.

 

[Onslow]

He'll be a top six winger in a couple years who hopefully puts up 25/25 and plays somewhat of a power forward game. And he'll fill in at center when injuries to Eichel and Reinhart happen.

 

[sabrebuild]

Girgensons-O'Reilly-Reinhart

Good luck scoring.

This line with ROR switching with Reinhart as needed, I'd the best second line in hockey for the next 7 years. This line takes on every nasty 1st line in the league and either stops them or slows them down hugely.

Let eichel, Kane and Ennis absolutely crush offensively.

Larson, Moulson and gionta/mcginn/foligno/prospects eat up third line matchups.

The more line combos get brought up the more I think this offense will be top 5 in the east. Who is ahead of them?

2 ny teams
pitt
caps/Detroit maybes???

I think the first three teams are the only teams I'd say are definite.

Pull a couple lhds Murray, make it happen, put on your velvet robes and strut around the city like ric flair.

Edit: obviously tampa, that's what happens when u rush

 

[AndrewGaze]

Don't know where the old Girgenthread got lost, but I think the Locomotive needs one.
Post away!

 

[AndrewGaze]

How has he been playing so far in the preseason?

 

[Ness]

Zemgus Girgensons? Love him.

 

[BeTheBallDanny]

In a couple of years I think you will find ROR & Girgensons on the wing of Reinhart & Eichel. Everyone else will be filled in around that.

 

[OscarsCards]

Well, I'm just curious. Does game action like assists on goals scored and plus / minus are reviewed after the game to specify the statistics? Because Z was on the ice when McCabe scored a goal against Panthers and he wasn't on the ice when the goals were scored against.
Boxscore & Game summary

 

[rylt]

They gave his +1 to Reinhart

 

[Woodhouse]

Heh, I noticed that too when I was updating the log .. I had to correct that when I wanted to note Girgensons was crashing the net.

 

[Heraldic]

While it's still a bit too early because of the sample size, let's take a look how Zemgus has done defensively.

First take a look at his usage.

His corsi-based QOC-number is third highest among forwards. His rel-number is slightly lower than ROR's, and absolute number is sligthly higher. Other players who have played as a center (Reinhart, Larsson, Legwand, Schaller, Eichel) have significantly lower number, meaning, he is having the toughest minutes with ROR among centers. His Corsi-on number is second highest in the team among forwards (both relative and absolute). His sv% on-ice is highest among forwards (94,7 %). His o-zone-start % is fourth lowest among the team (48,2, while the highest is 59,7 (Reinhart)).

How about his 5v5 GA60 with and without?

Overall it is 0.36. Teammates with Girgs and without him:

Johnson:
W: 0.50 WO: 3.32

Moulson:
W: 0,00 WO: 4.34

Gionta:
W: 0.00 WO: 3.24

Ristolainen
W: 1.02 WO: 2.98

Gorges:
W: 1.03 WO: 2.31

Franson:
W: 0.00 WO: 3.79

Pysyk:
W: 0.00 WO: 2.32

Weber:
W: 0.00 WO: 3.00

Ullmark:
W: 0.00 WO: 2.84

McCabe:
W: 0.00 WO: 3.65

Foligno:
W: 1.58 WO: 3.33

O'Reilly:
W: 0.00 WO: 2.48

etc....

EVERY SINGLE METRIC is absolutely ASTONISHING. He is having really tough matchups and z-starts and his effect to EVERY SINGLE players' GA is extremely clear. He also is doing really, really well puck possession wise. And he doesn't even have great or even good defensive wingers with him (or hasn't had)...

And there is this narrative about Girgs being a bad player defensively...?

 

[JLewyB]

While it's still a bit too early because of the sample size, let's take a look how Zemgus has done defensively.

First take a look at his usage.

His corsi-based QOC-number is third highest among forwards. His rel-number is slightly lower than ROR's, and absolute number is sligthly higher. Other players who have played as a center (Reinhart, Larsson, Legwand, Schaller, Eichel) have significantly lower number, meaning, he is having the toughest minutes with ROR among centers. His Corsi-on number is second highest in the team among forwards (both relative and absolute). His sv% on-ice is highest among forwards (94,7 %). His o-zone-start % is fourth lowest among the team (48,2, while the highest is 59,7 (Reinhart)).

How about his 5v5 GA60 with and without?

Overall it is 0.36. Teammates with Girgs and without him:

Johnson:
W: 0.50 WO: 3.32

Moulson:
W: 0,00 WO: 4.34

Gionta:
W: 0.00 WO: 3.24

Ristolainen
W: 1.02 WO: 2.98

Gorges:
W: 1.03 WO: 2.31

Franson:
W: 0.00 WO: 3.79

Pysyk:
W: 0.00 WO: 2.32

Weber:
W: 0.00 WO: 3.00

Ullmark:
W: 0.00 WO: 2.84

McCabe:
W: 0.00 WO: 3.65

Foligno:
W: 1.58 WO: 3.33

O'Reilly:
W: 0.00 WO: 2.48

etc....

EVERY SINGLE METRIC is absolutely ASTONISHING. He is having really tough matchups and z-starts and his effect to EVERY SINGLE players' GA is extremely clear. He also is doing really, really well puck possession wise. And he doesn't even have great or even good defensive wingers with him (or hasn't had)...

And there is this narrative about Girgs being a bad player defensively...?

He should be getting more credit on here than he is. His effect on Moulson and Gionta is really impressive. The undue criticisim you speak of seems to be happening too much after one bad game for a bunch of Sabres this season.

 

[OkimLom]

While it's still a bit too early because of the sample size, let's take a look how Zemgus has done defensively.

First take a look at his usage.

His corsi-based QOC-number is third highest among forwards. His rel-number is slightly lower than ROR's, and absolute number is sligthly higher. Other players who have played as a center (Reinhart, Larsson, Legwand, Schaller, Eichel) have significantly lower number, meaning, he is having the toughest minutes with ROR among centers. His Corsi-on number is second highest in the team among forwards (both relative and absolute). His sv% on-ice is highest among forwards (94,7 %). His o-zone-start % is fourth lowest among the team (48,2, while the highest is 59,7 (Reinhart)).

How about his 5v5 GA60 with and without?

Overall it is 0.36. Teammates with Girgs and without him:

Johnson:
W: 0.50 WO: 3.32

Moulson:
W: 0,00 WO: 4.34

Gionta:
W: 0.00 WO: 3.24

Ristolainen
W: 1.02 WO: 2.98

Gorges:
W: 1.03 WO: 2.31

Franson:
W: 0.00 WO: 3.79

Pysyk:
W: 0.00 WO: 2.32

Weber:
W: 0.00 WO: 3.00

Ullmark:
W: 0.00 WO: 2.84

McCabe:
W: 0.00 WO: 3.65

Foligno:
W: 1.58 WO: 3.33

O'Reilly:
W: 0.00 WO: 2.48

etc....

EVERY SINGLE METRIC is absolutely ASTONISHING. He is having really tough matchups and z-starts and his effect to EVERY SINGLE players' GA is extremely clear. He also is doing really, really well puck possession wise. And he doesn't even have great or even good defensive wingers with him (or hasn't had)...

And there is this narrative about Girgs being a bad player defensively...?

Not exactly. IIRC, There's a narrative that Girg's hustle, and grit points to good defensive play and there's a debate about that. Then there's a narrative that Girg's defensive play is overrated. And then there is a narrative where the defensive game of Larsson and Girgs is compared. Well, at least I haven't seen one where he's being portrayed as a bad player defensively.

I personally would fall under the "Girg's defensive game is a little overrated" category. It's not the same as saying he's a bad defensive player.

 

[Heraldic]

Not exactly. IIRC, There's a narrative that Girg's hustle, and grit points to good defensive play and there's a debate about that. Then there's a narrative that Girg's defensive play is overrated. And then there is a narrative where the defensive game of Larsson and Girgs is compared. Well, at least I haven't seen one where he's being portrayed as a bad player defensively.

I personally would fall under the "Girg's defensive game is a little overrated" category. It's not the same as saying he's a bad defensive player.

I recommend you to look several pages back in the "Roster speculation" thread.

 

[Heraldic]

But I agree that the hype regarding Girgs got out of hand at the first part of last season, and the hype carried a bit too far. There was a lot of discussion about Girgs becoming even a legitimate first line center etc.

But the hype didn't arise out of nowhere. Girgs game overall and his defensive game was really good (not elite) for 20 years old guy. Nolan, Murray and Devine all praised Girgs. Sure, he fell while the whole team fell (Ristolainen was really bad after November/December throught TDL), and he got injured while the whole team got a lot better after the TDL.

It's fair to say that those talks about Girgs becoming a legitimate first line center were too jumpy, but I haven't really seen those kind of comments in a long, long time.

But it's pretty bizarre that for some reason the whole attitude has turned 180 degrees. Yes, it's true that the team is a lot better and especially at centre compared to last season. And it's clear that he is not the best center in the team.

But it's pretty strange to see Girgs getting so much criticism. He is far from perfect defensively (not even ROR is, he has made a lot of defensive lapses but his offense draws the attention elsewhere), but he has been one of the best forwards defensively. Despite him not being as productive offensively as hoped, he has been one of the biggest reasons for this team to be so good possession wise and defensive wise. All the metrics and at least my eye-test confirms it. He does a lot of good things defensively (but he makes mistakes as well).

When Girgs started in NHL, I remember Devine talking that they are viewing him as a power-forward winger. When Darcy got axed, and Murray came, he wanted Girgs to be a center, and he has been a center basically all the time since end of 13-14 season.

At the start of the season Murray said that Girgs might be a winger or a center. He was a winger only briefly, and was put back to center. And he has been playing a shut-down role, and has been really good at it. And I think that the management sees him a capable defensive center who has potential to be really good one defensively.

His 5v5 GA60 is ridiculous compared to other players. And his matchups and zone-starts combined have been the toughest in the whole team (even tougher than ROR's) and he has played most of his time with defensively challenging players.

http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/rat...s=50&teamid=4&type=goals&sort=A60&sortdir=ASC

(I don't think he will sustain those kind of numbers, though)

He's not perfect, he makes mistakes and he's a work in a progress... But he needs a lot more credit for his play as a 21-years old guy playing in a really tough situation. I understand that shiny new toys like Reinhart, ROR and Eichel get all the attention, but I'm pretty baffled to see him getting as much criticism as he does. Is it all because of the lack of offence? Or is it all because of this pretty artificial Girgs vs. Larsson thing? I don't know.

 

[Paxon]

While it's still a bit too early because of the sample size, let's take a look how Zemgus has done defensively.

First take a look at his usage.

His corsi-based QOC-number is third highest among forwards. His rel-number is slightly lower than ROR's, and absolute number is sligthly higher. Other players who have played as a center (Reinhart, Larsson, Legwand, Schaller, Eichel) have significantly lower number, meaning, he is having the toughest minutes with ROR among centers. His Corsi-on number is second highest in the team among forwards (both relative and absolute). His sv% on-ice is highest among forwards (94,7 %). His o-zone-start % is fourth lowest among the team (48,2, while the highest is 59,7 (Reinhart)).

How about his 5v5 GA60 with and without?

Overall it is 0.36. Teammates with Girgs and without him:

Johnson:
W: 0.50 WO: 3.32

Moulson:
W: 0,00 WO: 4.34

Gionta:
W: 0.00 WO: 3.24

Ristolainen
W: 1.02 WO: 2.98

Gorges:
W: 1.03 WO: 2.31

Franson:
W: 0.00 WO: 3.79

Pysyk:
W: 0.00 WO: 2.32

Weber:
W: 0.00 WO: 3.00

Ullmark:
W: 0.00 WO: 2.84

McCabe:
W: 0.00 WO: 3.65

Foligno:
W: 1.58 WO: 3.33

O'Reilly:
W: 0.00 WO: 2.48

etc....

EVERY SINGLE METRIC is absolutely ASTONISHING. He is having really tough matchups and z-starts and his effect to EVERY SINGLE players' GA is extremely clear. He also is doing really, really well puck possession wise. And he doesn't even have great or even good defensive wingers with him (or hasn't had)...

And there is this narrative about Girgs being a bad player defensively...?

I would say there isn't enough sample size to put much stock in the GA60 numbers as one goal would make a significant difference at this point. The other numbers represent a better sample. Either way Zemgus has played well despite poor offensive production.

 

[Gras]

He's bringing his pornstache back so watch the points pile up.

 

[Heraldic]

I would say there isn't enough sample size to put much stock in the GA60 numbers as one goal would make a significant difference at this point. The other numbers represent a better sample. Either way Zemgus has played well despite poor offensive production.

The sample size regarding any stats is far too small for any really accurate analysis at this point. But that's what we have.

While I think his GA60 number will get clearly worse, I don't think his number is just a result of accidents. There is pretty sure a decent spoonful of luck, but also something Girgs has done well.

 

[26CornerBlitz]

 

[Namejs]

I spent an unhealthy amount of time watching Girgs individual movements, positioning, decisions on the ice, etc., in his rookie and sophomore seasons.

A lot of people on these boards got carried away by his offensive production last year, when his shooting efficiency was significantly above average combined with a lot of ice time and skilled linemates, and a lot of people seemed to form their expectations based exclusively on that (as well as projecting his future point production based on the 14/15 season, while adding a bunch of point on top of it due to 'future growth'). I don't think that made a lot of sense.

Girgs usage was obviously going to change with a bunch of talented players joining the Sabres. Whenever he's played on the 3rd line (under both Rolston or Nolan, or Bylsma now), he hasn't been stellar offensively at all. Now it's been exacerbated by his extremely low shooting % (3% before the game vs. DET), but that is bound to normalize in the long term.

Zemgus is a good two-way defensive forward. He can play as a shutdown center, he can chip in on the 2nd line if there's a need for that. He can play on the PK/PP. But he's never going to be an elite forward or a playmaking center, who's going to rack up 60, 70 or 80 points per season. He's probably going to be a 30 or 40 point guy.

I also don't see Girgs progressing a lot. Honestly, it doesn't look like he's improved too much over the last couple of years. He has the same little shortcomings and faults he had in his rookie season (weak on his skates, falls down a lot; he tries to throw a lot of hits, but too often he ends up barely bumping into guys without speed and ends up losing position himself, meaning he's going to be late on the backcheck when that happens; sometimes he gets lost in the defensive zone, particularly when they're hemmed in their own end for a while; he also doesn't excel at making the first pass and getting out of the defensive zone - often you'll see him with his head down and looking at the puck instead of looking for options and passing lanes, etc.).