Alright so here's my much-too-long contribution to this inflamed Zadina discussion. Pre- and post-draft, I thought he'd step straight into the NHL and produce pretty well. This has turned out to not be the case, and that's fine. I haven't really adjusted my long-term projection (30-30 1W with the potential for more), but obviously in the short term we need to adjust.
Why is he struggling more than anticipated IMO? Mostly I think it's game speed. Zadina is a smart player that relies very heavily on his reads to produce. If you give him space he'll pull up and laser a puck on net so defenders have to play him tight. In the Q when they closed on him he was ready and beat them with his hands. Now in the AHL they're closing on him quicker and when he tries the same moves they're stuffing him because they're bigger and faster than him.
Furthermore he's used to having that second to read his opponent before he acts. Now all of his decisions are a little too late. How is he adjusting? He's having to be less selfish (passing it off when pressured), improve his skating/strength and readjust his moves to the tougher pace- in juniors if he managed to fake someone, his speed was enough to pull away, but in the AHL they're managing to defend him when he gets that half step. I think he's adjusting to those things well, thus I'm not worried about the long-term projection. My short-term projection was off because I thought his reads would be quick enough to compensate for the faster pace, but that hasn't been the case.
What are Zadina's strengths that still make me super excited? For me it's all about his versatility. He's that guy with an answer to every way you try to defend him. His shot is his only truly elite quality so it starts there. Give him the space to use it and he'll score. Defenders are always going to have to close on him. Lots of shooters can't handle that pressure, but I think what makes Zadina special is how well he can handle that interaction:
"Pressured him from this angle, beat you with a toe drag, tried this, beat the triangle on you. Tried this, never seen that move before. Tried completely taking the body? It was on his teammate's stick behind you before you knew he was there. Decided the only option is to back off? He scored with his shot that coach warned you about before the game. Why'd you give him that space?! That's the 'one' thing you can never do."
In juniors, Zadina'd wait for the D to make their move and already had his dangle through them, or pass ready. His hands and his vision for these things are both really good so if he can read the D, he'll burn them.
Physically he's definitely too slow and weak for the AHL/NHL right now, but once he's up to speed, he can out-think his opponents well enough to mitigate that. I'm not worried about that aspect of things, over time he should develop into someone that's about average NHL size and probably quicker than average. I don't think those things will ever be big strengths, but once they're not weaknesses he can rely on his offensive versatility without getting pushed around.
Right now he's a step behind so he's only producing when he's given the time to shoot. That he's actually producing pretty well despite being clearly a step behind is a testament to how good he can be when he catches up. Now you could say "I don't think he's that smart so he'll always be a step behind," and I guess that's a valid projection- we are trying to guess how a prospect will develop after all. If that's the case he'll probably be limited to resembling a bigger, shoot-first Hudler (to be fair that would still be a decent player). But from what I've seen, he's a really smart player so I'm projecting that it's just a matter of time before his complete set of tools go on display in the AHL and then the NHL.
