News Article: Yes, It’s Time to Trade Jean-Gabriel Pageau (This time, it’s different.)

[aragorn]

I will probably go into this question in more detail in the Colin White thread just to not completely derail this one, but who would you guys say has more value at the moment, Pageau or White??

And would the option of trading White and signing Pageau to a 5 year deal make sense? Think about it before replying with extreme emotion.

Well given that White had a pretty good rookie season, has already signed a long term contract & is younger & with the emergence of Logan Brown & Norris coming probably as soon as next season I think the writing is on the wall regarding Pageau. Beaudin & Chlapik have also both played well & Tierny is still around so the Sens have plenty of centres.

I would be surprised if Pageau is re-signed but not shocked given what the community thinks about Pageau in this market, but they have traded home grown talent before as well as guys that people loved on this team. IMO PD sticks with the rebuilding plan & trades as many as he can leading up to the deadline.

 

[TheDebater]

My reasoning for suggesting the "Pageau or White" comment was simply to gauge others thoughts on which player would return more in a trade and which of the two has a more defined role with the team.

If Pagaeau is the perfect 3rd line centre, then you keep him and make room by moving out a younger player with more value in a position that we are currently crowded in.

If not, then you trade Pageau and take your chances that White develops into at least a defined 3rd line centre or at best a 2nd line offensive center. Since we still do not know what White's potential is, this topic is up for discussion more than some think.

 

[aragorn]

My reasoning for suggesting the "Pageau or White" comment was simply to gauge others thoughts on which player would return more in a trade and which of the two has a more defined role with the team.

If Pagaeau is the perfect 3rd line centre, then you keep him and make room by moving out a younger player with more value in a position that we are currently crowded in.

If not, then you trade Pageau and take your chances that White develops into at least a defined 3rd line centre or at best a 2nd line offensive center. Since we still do not know what White's potential is, this topic is up for discussion more than some think.

Pageau is clearly the better player right now, but White is much younger & has more potential for the team long run on a rebuilding team. IMO they have to go with the younger player especially given that they just signed him to a long term contract.

 

[stempniaksen]

My reasoning for suggesting the "Pageau or White" comment was simply to gauge others thoughts on which player would return more in a trade and which of the two has a more defined role with the team.

If Pagaeau is the perfect 3rd line centre, then you keep him and make room by moving out a younger player with more value in a position that we are currently crowded in.

If not, then you trade Pageau and take your chances that White develops into at least a defined 3rd line centre or at best a 2nd line offensive center. Since we still do not know what White's potential is, this topic is up for discussion more than some think.

Willing to "risk it" with White on age alone. Guy will still be in his prime when his current contract is up, whereas Pageau's decline could start before we're half way through the contract. Under the assumption this team is building for FYOUS they need to prioritize the U25 core so that most of the team is "peaking" around the same time.

I may still be leaning "both" depending on the terms of JGP's contracts, but if you're maknig me one or the other it's easily White given where this team is currently at.

 

[Matsens15]

Why you guys are comparing White and Pageau? Who would stay? NO. The real question is Pageau or Tierney and I hope Tierney is the one who is trade.

 

[JungleBeat]

Why you guys are comparing White and Pageau? Who would stay? NO. The real question is Pageau or Tierney and I hope Tierney is the one who is trade.

White and Pageau are both third liners. There’s no room for both of them and having $10M in two third liners isn’t wise when building a contender.

 

[stempniaksen]

White and Pageau are both third liners. There’s no room for both of them and having $10M in two third liners isn’t wise when building a contender.

Labelling them as "3rd liners" is a bit lazy, imo. Pageau has shown (in spurts) that he can play in the top-six and produce. If he's brought back next year he probably still ends up playing the first or second most even strength minutes of all the centers and would likely be in the top-two overall when accounting for his PK time. While White is struggling now I don't think it's wise to cap his ceiling as a 3rd liner. He's shown that he can score (at every level), has a pedigree and is a workhorse all over the ice. He's easily a guy that can slide in at RW2 if needed and a guy that may ultimately have 2C upside when it's all said and done.

Having good players on the 3rd line would also be a huge bonus for a team like the Senators, who lack skill up front. Even if Pageau and White end up on the "3rd line" (bit of an irrelevant title the way DJ rolls the lines, imo) they'd be forming 2/3rds of one of the best 3rd lines in the league, imo. That could be worth it for a team that should ealistically be expecting their top-six to score at a lower rate than most contending teams top-sixes.

The term is an issue for JGP and I can fully get on board with no paying a 32+ year old Pageau a chunk of money. I just think it's an nuanced argument and that "$10 million on the 3rd line" is an oversimplification.

 

[stempniaksen]

Well the Coyle contract is official, $5.5 X 6 ($33 million total).

Sets an interesting comparable for JGP. Makes the $5 X 6 rumours more believable.

Coyle: 27 years old, topped 50 points once, topped 40 points twice, 14 points in 24 games this year, "3rd line C"
Pageau: 27 years old, topped 50 points 0 times (on pace this year), topped 40 points once, 19 points in 24 games, "3rd line C"

 

[Sweatred]

Well the Coyle contract is official, $5.5 X 6 ($33 million total).

Sets an interesting comparable for JGP. Makes the $5 X 6 rumours more believable.

Coyle: 27 years old, topped 50 points once, topped 40 points twice, 14 points in 24 games this year, "3rd line C"
Pageau: 27 years old, topped 50 points 0 times (on pace this year), topped 40 points once, 19 points in 24 games, "3rd line C"

Seems like this will be $5 x 5 or 6. Pager has played many of the years in a non point producing rolls. There is also the White contract paying $4.9 avg over the next 5 years. I can’t see Pager making less than White or more than Coyle.

 

[JungleBeat]

Labelling them as "3rd liners" is a bit lazy, imo. Pageau has shown (in spurts) that he can play in the top-six and produce. If he's brought back next year he probably still ends up playing the first or second most even strength minutes of all the centers and would likely be in the top-two overall when accounting for his PK time. While White is struggling now I don't think it's wise to cap his ceiling as a 3rd liner. He's shown that he can score (at every level), has a pedigree and is a workhorse all over the ice. He's easily a guy that can slide in at RW2 if needed and a guy that may ultimately have 2C upside when it's all said and done.

Having good players on the 3rd line would also be a huge bonus for a team like the Senators, who lack skill up front. Even if Pageau and White end up on the "3rd line" (bit of an irrelevant title the way DJ rolls the lines, imo) they'd be forming 2/3rds of one of the best 3rd lines in the league, imo. That could be worth it for a team that should ealistically be expecting their top-six to score at a lower rate than most contending teams top-sixes.

The term is an issue for JGP and I can fully get on board with no paying a 32+ year old Pageau a chunk of money. I just think it's an nuanced argument and that "$10 million on the 3rd line" is an oversimplification.

I stated “when building a contender” in my post. Isn’t that the end goal? Building a team that can consistently contend for a cup and be able to win? No team is going to win with Pageau as their main stay second line centre IMO. Like I said, he’ll slot into the third line which is already occupied by White for the next six years. There’s no room for both of them.

 

[stempniaksen]

I stated “when building a contender” in my post. Isn’t that the end goal? Building a team that can consistently contend for a cup and be able to win? No team is going to win with Pageau as their main stay second line centre IMO. Like I said, he’ll slot into the third line which is already occupied by White for the next six years. There’s no room for both of them.

And 22 year old Colin White can't turn into a 2nd liner (whether C or RW) because...reasons?

This team should be able to cycle quality players through the top-nine on ELCs for the next ~4 seasons. That seems like the perfect time to have a vet stabilizing player on the 3rd line making $5 million. I mean, it's basically what the Bruins are doing as well with Coyle on the 3rd line and guys like Bjork filling in the open spots as needed.

It might be an issue if the plan is ultimately to contend on a budget, but I have a hard time seeing the potential cap issues (at least until the 23/24 season where the team is hopefully in a position where they have to pay a young star forward coming off ELC) if FYOUS is real and EM (or whoever) spends to the ceiling.

 

[JungleBeat]

And 22 year old Colin White can't turn into a 2nd liner (whether C or RW) because...reasons?

This team should be able to cycle quality players through the top-nine on ELCs for the next ~4 seasons. That seems like the perfect time to have a vet stabilizing player on the 3rd line making $5 million. I mean, it's basically what the Bruins are doing as well with Coyle on the 3rd line and guys like Bjork filling in the open spots as needed.

It might be an issue if the plan is ultimately to contend on a budget, but I have a hard time seeing the potential cap issues (at least until the 23/24 season where the team is hopefully in a position where they have to pay a young star forward coming off ELC) if FYOUS is real and EM (or whoever) spends to the ceiling.

Regarding your first point on White, you said on your original post that White can easily slide in on 2RW. I disagree because White looks considerably worse at the wing, he’s a centre and should play as such. Now, you’re banking on White developing into a second liner while signing Pageau long term as the number 3C. This is an unnecessary risk because if he doesn’t we'll be in trouble with both of them as third liners.

 

[stempniaksen]

Regarding your first point on White, you said on your original post that White can easily slide in on 2RW. I disagree because White looks considerably worse at the wing, he’s a centre and should play as such. Now, you’re banking on White developing into a second liner while signing Pageau long term as the number 3C. This is an unnecessary risk because if he doesn’t we'll be in trouble with both of them as third liners.

I doubt the organization would have committed that kind of money and term to a guy they didnt envision eventually grabbing that 2C spot. 20 bad games (coming off an injury) won't change their minds, imo.

I just don't understand the aversion to paying our better players for fear they get relegated to the 3rd line. If the team ends up with both these guys on the 3rd line it will be GREAT news for the rebuild, because it means they've got two damn good centers in front of them.

I guess I'm just not sure what the issue is with $10 million on the 3rd line in the short-medium term when this team will have a hard enough time hitting the cap floor, let alone the ceiling.

 

[Matsens15]

White and Pageau are both third liners. There’s no room for both of them and having $10M in two third liners isn’t wise when building a contender.

Tierney is a 3rd liner also...

 

[Matsens15]

They will have to go with Brown, White and Pageau un no particular order as their 3 center. This mean that Tierney will go.

 

[Sweatred]

I doubt the organization would have committed that kind of money and term to a guy they didnt envision eventually grabbing that 2C spot. 20 bad games (coming off an injury) won't change their minds, imo.

I just don't understand the aversion to paying our better players for fear they get relegated to the 3rd line. If the team ends up with both these guys on the 3rd line it will be GREAT news for the rebuild, because it means they've got two damn good centers in front of them.

I guess I'm just not sure what the issue is with $10 million on the 3rd line in the short-medium term when this team will have a hard enough time hitting the cap floor, let alone the ceiling.

A team can’t pay third line players $5 million each and pay top 6 elite forwards, top 4 D and or a $5 million goalie. The average player spot takes about $3.6 mill of the cap -

 

[Ice-Tray]

A team can’t pay third line players $5 million each and pay top 6 elite forwards, top 4 D and or a $5 million goalie. The average player spot takes about $3.6 mill of the cap -

Sure you can. You can pay your top checking forward 5 million, it doesn’t mean everyone on the third line makes that.

Im not saying that JPG has to stay, but to be a contending team, you want some elite talent around that excels at shutting down other teams stars, and you need to pay good money for that.

You don’t put scrubs or rookies in that role, or just a random player. One of those guys has to be the top echelon anchor to a checking line. Maybe that ends up being White, but he has a lot to learn.

 

[stempniaksen]

A team can’t pay third line players $5 million each and pay top 6 elite forwards, top 4 D and or a $5 million goalie. The average player spot takes about $3.6 mill of the cap -

They can if they are spending less on guys in the top-four/top-six (the easiest way being guys on ELCs). Brady is still on his ELC next season, Norris will be here on his ELC in the next year or two, the 2020 1st will likely also be playing significant minutes on an ELC.

Your math is also under the current cap. The number will continue to rise, leaving more room to re-sign the guys that deserve a raise.

 

[Sweatred]

Sure you can. You can pay your top checking forward 5 million, it doesn’t mean everyone on the third line makes that.

Im not saying that JPG has to stay, but to be a contending team, you want some elite talent around that excels at shutting down other teams stars, and you need to pay good money for that.

You don’t put scrubs or rookies in that role, or just a random player. One of those guys has to be the top echelon anchor to a checking line. Maybe that ends up being White, but he has a lot to learn.

I was referencing the White and Pager third line comment - my bad if I wasn’t clear. $10+ million on the third will get sacrificed somewhere else in the lineup.

 

[Sweatred]

L

They can if they are spending less on guys in the top-four/top-six (the easiest way being guys on ELCs). Brady is still on his ELC next season, Norris will be here on his ELC in the next year or two, the 2020 1st will likely also be playing significant minutes on an ELC.

Your math is also under the current cap. The number will continue to rise, leaving more room to re-sign the guys that deserve a raise.

For sure - but for every Brady on a ELC there is also a Ryan etc. The Sens have really cleaned up the bad contracts but that will start again when they start paying guys.

 

[Ice-Tray]

I was referencing the White and Pager third line comment - my bad if I wasn’t clear. $10+ million on the third will get sacrificed somewhere else in the lineup.

Gotcha, yeah we don’t need both of them on the third line at those dollars

 

[Nac Mac Feegle]

They can if they are spending less on guys in the top-four/top-six (the easiest way being guys on ELCs). Brady is still on his ELC next season, Norris will be here on his ELC in the next year or two, the 2020 1st will likely also be playing significant minutes on an ELC.

Your math is also under the current cap. The number will continue to rise, leaving more room to re-sign the guys that deserve a raise.

Cap doesn't matter when the team won't spend to the cap.

As much as I want a good 3rd line, we just can't end up paying $13+ million for it.

 

[stempniaksen]

Cap doesn't matter when the team won't spend to the cap.

As much as I want a good 3rd line, we just can't end up paying $13+ million for it.

My posts were made under the guise that the team would be contenders (i.e FYOUS), in this particular scenario the team spending to the ceiling would have no issue fitting in both White and Pageau into the lineup, imo.

Assuming FYOUS is a flop and this team doesn't spend to the cap ceiling than we don't need to worry about it, since teams that spend significantly below the ceiling don't compete for the Stanley Cup.

My main point is just that (imo) we don't need to make a choice between White and Pageau, while a handful of posters here seem to have them earmarked for the same spot in the lineup.

 

[stempniaksen]

L



For sure - but for every Brady on a ELC there is also a Ryan etc. The Sens have really cleaned up the bad contracts but that will start again when they start paying guys.

The team will have more cap space in the short/medium term than they'll know what to do with, imo. I don't see how having Pageau and White hurts the team in the next 3 seasons (basically what I've been on record as being the length of an ideal JGP extension).

Summer 2020 OUT: Callahan, MacArthur, Boedker, Hainsey, Anderson, Namestnikov? Boro/Demelo? Pageau/Tierney?
Summer 2020 IN: Chabot extension (7 mill), Duke/Brown extension (+5 mill?), JGP/Tierney etension (+2 mill?)

Summer 2021 OUT: Gaborik, Anisimov, Nilsson?
Summer 2020 IN: Tkachuck extension (+6/7 mill), L.Brown extension (1-4 mill?), Batherson extension (1-4 mill?)

Summer 2022 OUT: Ryan

Tough to project out 3 years out for a roster that is inevitably going to go through a ton of changes, but the point is that for the next 3 off-seasons the team will clear significant space in the way of bad contracts. The LTIR/dead cap deals we've got on the books (Gaborik, Callahan, McArthur) are really skewing the cap picture. This is still a team spending ~50 million in salaries currently, there's a ton of wiggle room to "sign our own".

 

[Sweatred]

The team will have more cap space in the short/medium term than they'll know what to do with, imo. I don't see how having Pageau and White hurts the team in the next 3 seasons (basically what I've been on record as being the length of an ideal JGP extension).

Summer 2020 OUT: Callahan, MacArthur, Boedker, Hainsey, Anderson, Namestnikov? Boro/Demelo? Pageau/Tierney?
Summer 2020 IN: Chabot extension (7 mill), Duke/Brown extension (+5 mill?), JGP/Tierney etension (+2 mill?)

Summer 2021 OUT: Gaborik, Anisimov, Nilsson?
Summer 2020 IN: Tkachuck extension (+6/7 mill), L.Brown extension (1-4 mill?), Batherson extension (1-4 mill?)

Summer 2022 OUT: Ryan

Tough to project out 3 years out for a roster that is inevitably going to go through a ton of changes, but the point is that for the next 3 off-seasons the team will clear significant space in the way of bad contracts. The LTIR/dead cap deals we've got on the books (Gaborik, Callahan, McArthur) are really skewing the cap picture. This is still a team spending ~50 million in salaries currently, there's a ton of wiggle room to "sign our own".

Tough to predict - but after a decent rookie season it took $5/ to sign White. I expect Brown, Brady, Bath, EB, our 2020 1RD’s and maybe some of the 1RD dman are all possibly $5+ off their ELC’s in 2022+

If we run a $42 million offence for 12 players we are down to $32 (White/Pager). If Brady is $7 we have $2.7/player for the other 9 guys. Tough to fit Brown, Norris, Batherson, Duc. If they each took $5 we have $1 mill each for our 2020 1RD picks and a 4th line. Byfield alone is probably $8.