News Article: Yes, It’s Time to Trade Jean-Gabriel Pageau (This time, it’s different.)

[stempniaksen]

Tough to predict - but after a decent rookie season it took $5/ to sign White. I expect Brown, Brady, Bath, EB, our 2020 1RD’s and maybe some of the 1RD dman are all possibly $5+ off their ELC’s in 2022+

If we run a $42 million offence for 12 players we are down to $32 (White/Pager). If Brady is $7 we have $2.7/player for the other 9 guys. Tough to fit Brown, Norris, Batherson, Duc. If they each took $5 we have $1 mill each for our 2020 1RD picks and a 4th line. Byfield alone is probably $8.

You're still using the 2019-20 cap number as your reference. But the time the 2020 pick will be coming off of his ELC the cap will have risen another $6+ million (unless there's a plateau, but with the US TV deal and expansion coming down the pipe I have a hard time seeing that happening).

White got paid because he signed the long-term deal. It would be surprising (but certainly not impossible) based on recent history to see all of the kids signed long-term. A few of them are bound to be bridged and/or moved. There's enough kids and picks in the system that the Sens will be able to move on from pieces that aren't part of the core.

I just think it's (really) early to be talking about making a decision between White and JGP when they 1) are spending ~30 million below the cap ceiling and 2) I'm not convinced White and JGP are earmarked for the same role.

 

[aragorn]

Why you guys are comparing White and Pageau? Who would stay? NO. The real question is Pageau or Tierney and I hope Tierney is the one who is trade.

I think both Pageau & Tierny should be traded, but Tierny is an RFA, they might want to keep him around for insurance for another yr & move him at next yr's deadline along with Anisimov. Add some extra assets for the 2021 draft too.

 

[Sweatred]

You're still using the 2019-20 cap number as your reference. But the time the 2020 pick will be coming off of his ELC the cap will have risen another $6+ million (unless there's a plateau, but with the US TV deal and expansion coming down the pipe I have a hard time seeing that happening).

White got paid because he signed the long-term deal. It would be surprising (but certainly not impossible) based on recent history to see all of the kids signed long-term. A few of them are bound to be bridged and/or moved. There's enough kids and picks in the system that the Sens will be able to move on from pieces that aren't part of the core.

I just think it's (really) early to be talking about making a decision between White and JGP when they 1) are spending ~30 million below the cap ceiling and 2) I'm not convinced White and JGP are earmarked for the same role.

Yes I agree ... I am just being cautious. I also think we may not be a full cap team and $6 million extra is only about $275000 per player on average more. As you said I don’t think there is any risk through 2020,2021, and 2022. Years 2023-24 could be clogged a bit with White’s $6.25 and what ever Pager may make, especially if Pager declines and White never develops. The 2020 1RD picks could be coming off ELC etc.

I strongly believe we are going to have to sell high on a few shiny young assets as they emerge to restock the cupboard and protect our internal cap. Ideally that keeps us competitive for a few years.

 

[JungleBeat]

They can if they are spending less on guys in the top-four/top-six (the easiest way being guys on ELCs). Brady is still on his ELC next season, Norris will be here on his ELC in the next year or two, the 2020 1st will likely also be playing significant minutes on an ELC.

Your math is also under the current cap. The number will continue to rise, leaving more room to re-sign the guys that deserve a raise.

Players aren’t going to be on their ELC forever. For projecting long term cap flexibility having a couple third liners making that much money will be crippling.

 

[bert]

Players aren’t going to be on their ELC forever. For projecting long term cap flexibility having a couple third liners making that much money will be crippling.

100 percent. Plus the sens have players coming.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

Trade him. Lots of teams will be interested. We should be able to get a first without giving anything else up Pierre. I could see Dorion trying to package Boedker with him

 

[Cacciaguida]

Pageau is singlehandedly pulling us out of the basement. The fact we keep trading players like him away is why I don't want to commit to the Sens.

 

[Sweatred]

100 percent. Plus the sens have players coming.

Trade White and give Pager his money x5.... unless you think the White contract can’t be moved .

 

[OD99]

I'm a huge JGP fan but to suggest in any way he is the key to our rebuild seems like so much hyperbole.

If we can get a 1st for him we take it and run - there is potential to sign him in off season or another high character vet if that is what we want.

He has 4 assists as a C! Yes he has been hot and has been finding the back of the net but 0 chance he shoots 20%+ for much longer. If some GM wants to pay a 1st for JGP playoff cred and perhaps a magical season to push his team over the edge we have to take it.

In no reality is JGP so valuable to us we can pass up a 1st round pick for him.

 

[MakeOttawaGreatAgain]

Players aren’t going to be on their ELC forever. For projecting long term cap flexibility having a couple third liners making that much money will be crippling.

Overpaying 4th liners and bottom pairing defencemen is our specialty though.

 

[Wondercarrot]

I love Pageau and would try hard to sign him in the summer but if we can get a 1st for him then you have to do it.
Let’s say it ends up a 20th over all, it’s an asset to use to move up higher in the draft with SJ pick or in combination with our 2nds

 

[HSF]

Pageau is singlehandedly pulling us out of the basement. The fact we keep trading players like him away is why I don't want to commit to the Sens.

Dude that boat sailed last year. Pageau is definitely a core member of the team but is also a 3rd liner. We have some good tweener centres coming through.

The boat for trading away good players sailed last year. At this point just blow the whole thing up and tank

 

[Matsens15]

Dude that boat sailed last year. Pageau is definitely a core member of the team but is also a 3rd liner. We have some good tweener centres coming through.

The boat for trading away good players sailed last year. At this point just blow the whole thing up and tank

yup. Last year the boat sailed.

 

[stempniaksen]

Everybody talking about trading Pageau for a 1st like it's a foregone conclusion. Do people's opinions on trading him change if the return is underwhelming?

Is it more about Pageau not having a role long-term? Or blocking the kids? Or taking up too much of the cap?

I'm just curious if people's opinions change if JGP ends up slowing down and all we can recoup is (for example) a 2nd and 'B' prospect.

 

[armani]

JGP is punching above his weight now wrt offence, but he produces offensively in the playoffs.​

Pageau is the perfect defensive centre for a contending team in the playoffs. His shutdown game of elite players, PK, short-handed and clutch goal scoring abilities make him even more valuable in do-or-die playoff games than, say, a typical 2nd line centre with inferior defensive game acumen.

The intangibles are almost elite - he is grown into a leader with his tenacity, hard work, and great hockey sense. I find he sacrifices offence as his priority is to shutdown the other line's top guys.

The ultimate warrior. But, he needs to be traded as Ottawa is not a contender anytime soon. With the way he plays with his size, the wear and tear may become inevitable in his early 30s. So he is more valuable to a playoff bound team with immediate playoff aspirations. And they will pay the premium (a 1st+ or a legit prospect) to strengthen their hopes by roping in an in-form defensive centre - an early season Selke nominee.

Dorion should play this well, should not be rushing into it, but the time to trade him is neigh (perhaps after Christmas).

 

[Sen sational]

Everybody talking about trading Pageau for a 1st like it's a foregone conclusion. Do people's opinions on trading him change if the return is underwhelming?

Is it more about Pageau not having a role long-term? Or blocking the kids? Or taking up too much of the cap?

I'm just curious if people's opinions change if JGP ends up slowing down and all we can recoup is (for example) a 2nd and 'B' prospect.

IMO JGP is a very valuable player. For me, my willingness to trade him is based on a number of factors: 1 I would only be willing to trade him if the likely range of draft pick would provide Ottawa with a, as much as possible, can't miss top 6 F or top 4 D. If the projected draft position is more likely to produce a 3rd line or bottom 6 player then I would be more inclined to keep JGP. I asked this question on here about 1 month ago and the consensus (small sample) was that in this years draft a pick in the 20 to 30 range would most likely end up as a top 6 player;
2 I would not want to sign JGP for 6 years, my preference would be 3 years and he would likely want 5. I would be willing to over pay for a 3 year contract on the basis that we will not be to the Melnyk cap by then and because he does add a lot to the team;
3 he is a small, heart and soul player, who will likely be worn down by his style of play and will tail off as he gets into his 30s.

To me the perfect team to get a 1st from would be a team that is currently on the fringe of making the play offs with a poor penalty kill and a need to show progress to its fan base. Buffalo is currently ranked 26th with a 74.4% kill, Colorado 21st at 77.8%; TO 27th at 73.8% (although if I were TO I would wait to see if the coaching change improves to PK); Nashville 29th at 72.7% and perhaps Winnipeg at 75% (although with Buf out and the arbitration coming they might still need to keep space for him). All of these teams should be thinking of JGP as a PK specialist, remembering last year when he came back from injury Ottawa went from 31st in PK to low 20s within weeks, with really nice upside as a 3C.

 

[BonHoonLayneCornell]

JGP is punching above his weight now wrt offence, but he produces offensively in the playoffs.​

Pageau is the perfect defensive centre for a contending team in the playoffs. His shutdown game of elite players, PK, short-handed and clutch goal scoring abilities make him even more valuable in do-or-die playoff games than, say, a typical 2nd line centre with inferior defensive game acumen.

The intangibles are almost elite - he is grown into a leader with his tenacity, hard work, and great hockey sense. I find he sacrifices offence as his priority is to shutdown the other line's top guys.

The ultimate warrior. But, he needs to be traded as Ottawa is not a contender anytime soon. With the way he plays with his size, the wear and tear may become inevitable in his early 30s. So he is more valuable to a playoff bound team with immediate playoff aspirations. And they will pay the premium (a 1st+ or a legit prospect) to strengthen their hopes by roping in an in-form defensive centre - an early season Selke nominee.

Dorion should play this well, should not be rushing into it, but the time to trade him is neigh (perhaps after Christmas).

If you take out his 3 and 4 goal games in the playoffs, he actually hasn't produced all that much.

 

[RaMai]

If you take out his 3 and 4 goal games in the playoffs, he actually hasn't produced all that much.

Looks even worse if you take out all games he had points!

 

[BonHoonLayneCornell]

Everybody talking about trading Pageau for a 1st like it's a foregone conclusion. Do people's opinions on trading him change if the return is underwhelming?

Is it more about Pageau not having a role long-term? Or blocking the kids? Or taking up too much of the cap?

I'm just curious if people's opinions change if JGP ends up slowing down and all we can recoup is (for example) a 2nd and 'B' prospect.

Mostly Budget for me, but also don't quite have the love affair most seem to. Just not all that interested in locking up much for non star players while this all shakes out.

This is not a team that will have the luxury of any mistakes and Dorion is going to have to be almost perfect in regards to contracts if he wants a contender on a ~70% of the cap budget.

 

[Cosmix]

Dude that boat sailed last year. Pageau is definitely a core member of the team but is also a 3rd liner. We have some good tweener centres coming through.

The boat for trading away good players sailed last year. At this point just blow the whole thing up and tank

I think Melnyk wants a low salary roster and to make the playoffs. I do not see any commitment by Menyk to paying near the salary cap ever in his future ownership years. I am in favor of tanking and getting 2 or 3 years of high draft picks to restock this team with higher end offensive talent but I truly think that is NOT the objective.

 

[BonHoonLayneCornell]

Looks even worse if you take out all games he had points!

Just saying, he had two massive nights and not a whole lot else offensively. Seems like a fair distinction to say he had 2 massive nights out of 35 and that to call him a playoff producer might be somewhat inaccurate.

 

[RaMai]

Just saying, he had two massive nights and not a whole lot else offensively. Seems like a fair distinction to say he had 2 massive nights out of 35 and that to call him a playoff producer might be somewhat inaccurate.

All good, I understand your point of view. But I couldn't pass on the opportunity.
But to be fair, he played the games he scored the goals...and at least in my memory I was never watching and thinking "man, Pageau went cold" or something.
Those offensive outbursts are not really expected from him, but he was always responsible.
To me he is a good Playoff performer.

 

[Micklebot]

All good, I understand your point of view. But I couldn't pass on the opportunity.
But to be fair, he played the games he scored the goals...and at least in my memory I was never watching and thinking "man, Pageau went cold" or something.
Those offensive outbursts are not really expected from him, but he was always responsible.
To me he is a good Playoff performer.

I think part of that is his role was never to produce pts in the playoffs, it was a bonus if he did. Still, those 2 games represent 7 of his 16 career playoff pts. 43% of his offense in 6% of his games

 

[BonHoonLayneCornell]

All good, I understand your point of view. But I couldn't pass on the opportunity.
But to be fair, he played the games he scored the goals...and at least in my memory I was never watching and thinking "man, Pageau went cold" or something.
Those offensive outbursts are not really expected from him, but he was always responsible.
To me he is a good Playoff performer.

Haha fair enough. I'm not trying to put him down either, he is clearly quite effective in the playoffs, just a distinction I noticed and his playoff offense beyond those two games is underwhelming, but then again, that's how hockey goes sometimes.

Similar to Fisher, I was just never as enamored over his play as much as the concensus seemed to be. I'm guilty of preferring flashy players like Hoffman for example. I always wanted Vermette in his role and to move Fish, but that didn't get a lot of agreement.

 

[Matsens15]

Pageau is slowly cooling down...