Yzerman quoted i have a long beautiful list of free agents its just wether or not they are still available. Agreed he doesn't want to tank and he won't. We will finish where we finish and he will go for there. Everyone is right horny to get in the lottery which i'm over, he will just get tons of picks again. For a example take our very own Zadina at 6th overall and where was say Kucherov drafted again? He tends to find players and he will do it again.
Would you be happy/mad at making the playoffs next season?
- Thread starter Frk It
- Start date
You abandon the draft if you make the playoffs. We have what one player on the roster from 10 years of #15-26 1st round draft picks and that is Larkin only. I know it might have been almost 80% of a decade but we can remember how most often bottom half of the first round usually only contributes 250 games played so say 3.2 seasons worth of games.
DetroitRed
Crashes the Crease
If they get to the TDL and they are in a playoff spot already, I'd even be alright with them buying. But I'm still dead inside.
Shaman464
No u
Not really, pushing to make the playoffs at the expense of long term success can take many forms. From trying to get the last bit out of aging vets to pushing a team that isn’t ready to contend.
OgeeOgelthorpe
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What? You abandon the draft? And guys drafted late first or later can’t be impact players? What an absolute load of crap.
How about Fabbri? He was a late first. Then there’s Veleno who was a late 1st. And Namestnikov. Or Lindstrom and Hronek and Bertuzzi who were 2nds. What about Ned?
Go look at Carolina, St. Louis, New York Rangers, LA Kings, Tampa Bay, Calgary, Boston, Dallas, and I’m sure I’m forgetting a few others. They have a couple, but they aren’t constructed only of top picks.
You make it sound like you need 10 top 10 picks to have a team worth a damn. The last team I can think of that had 10 top ten picks on their roster was the 20-21 Sabres. That didn’t go so well.
InjuredChoker
Registered User
guys drafted late first or later can be impact players but the best players, especially top centers are usually found at the top of the draft. what those teams have in common is that they have an elite center or two larkin level Cs on their roster. dallas and calgary (and perhaps bruins) probably don't have that and it'll probably bite them in the playoffs.
i wouldn't move out of the rebuilding phase until there's a larkin level C in the system. and i don't care how that player is acquired. maybe you find a sucker to give you one (zibanejad) or get lucky after the 1st round (aho, point). but the most surefire way to get an elite C is at the top of the draft. next year draft looks exceptionally deep at C. could find another larkin with a top 10 pick.
OgeeOgelthorpe
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Ok.
Sebastian Aho
Brayden Point
Anthony Cirelli
Robert Thomas
Ryan O'Reilly
Philip Danault
Andrew Copp
Vincent Trochek
Patrice Bergeron
Evgeni Kuznetsov
Joe Pavelski
Roope Hintz
JT Miller
Chandler Stephenson
William Karlsson/Jonathan Marchessault (depending on which is centering that line)
Joel Eriksson-Ek
Frederick Gaudreau
Charlie Coyle
Brock Nelson
Tage Thompson
Jared McCann
Yanni Gourde
Paul Stastny
Jack Roslovic
Boone Jenner
Nick Schmaltz
Adam Henrique
Josh Norris
Drake Batherson
Mikael Backlund
These are guys that are or were legit top 6 centers that were drafted 18 or later, or were signed as free agents. I'm sure I'm missing a few. It's not impossible to get a good center mid 1st round or later. Yes, we usually see the Draisaitl level and above guys go in the top 10. However, it's not entirely impossible to get your top center, or a top 6 center, outside of the top half of the draft.
#stopthetank
Frk It
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What do you consider “moving out of the rebuild phase”?
Like actually trying to sign some free agents and not have empty cap space? Or what
OgeeOgelthorpe
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I agree. I still feel that it would have really benefited this team to pick up Danault as a 2021 FA because you're realistically looking at 3-4 years as a 2C with great defense and years 5 and 6 of his contract you're hoping he's your 3C with great defense behind Larkin and whatever kid from 2021, 2022 or 2023 we draft.
Copp is the FA I want most for this team because he really fits the mold of utility 2C very well. Trocheck my number 2, but I think a couple of the guys on the list I posted can be had for the right price. If there were any way to get Brock Nelson off the island that wouldn't be the worst thing. That team is going to be hurting for cap space soon.
I could also see Ottawa shitting the bed and trading one of Norris or Batherson to keep the team below their internal salary cap after Dorion's latest stroke induced comment to the press.
And Vegas is another team that could be targeted after missing the postseason. The 2022-23 season hasn't even started and they're at the cap with RFAs to sign. Offer them a package for Stephenson and Hague?
InjuredChoker
Registered User
#1. i never said it was impossible to get good center mid 1st or later. it's just a lot harder to find top centers outside the top of the draft.
#2. i wouldn't be satisfied with most of the guys on that list as a top 6 C alongside larkin. some might be ok if 1C is mcdavid or matthews. larkin ain't that good.
#3. and some of those guys who i consider to be good enough, were either signed as FAs (like pavelski) or were acquired via trade when they were about receive a large contract extension (JT miller). there were little to no cap savings via that route as opposed to drafting when you get 3 ELC years. which is why finding one at the draft is more ideal. also you get more prime years.
that would leave aho, hintz, thomas, kuznetsov, point, ROR, pavelski (drafted version) and bergeron as guys i'd want alongside larkin as top 6 C. that's just 8 guys in almost 20 years out of thousands draft picks. maybe i could be convinced stastny v. 2.0 would be enough. anyway, not good odds. larkin + any other C on that list besides those guys probably won't lead to sustained success.
but like i said, if one can get larkin-caliber player without sucking another year, i'm all for it.
Another thing to consider is the factor of "team chemistry". Sometimes the whole is greater than the parts. Or less. Team-building isn't a formula where you can just plug in players (and coaches!) by their stats like some Avalon Hill NHL Simulator game.
We all know that some players make other players better under certain conditions. Some with great numbers are busts. Some are busts under the wrong coach. Or because they meet and fall in love with the wrong nurse's assistant in the wrong town, or whatever. Or they turn out to be lazy.
So given all that I've never understood people who insist on focusing on the draft to the exclusion of all else. It's a gamble. You don't rely on a gamble as your main strategy unless you want to end up giving handies in back alleys in Reno.
-dale
InjuredChoker
Registered User
in a word, yes.
but i'm usually strongly against FA anyway. (over)paying market value to players who are past their prime or soon will be past their prime isn't something i'd consider to be a good idea.
OgeeOgelthorpe
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Well, we don't know that. Since 2017 when Larkin was center full time, the next best center on the team was a debilitated Zetterberg. After Zetterberg retired this team's 2C was Nielsen, then stretches of Fabbri and Pius Suter since 2019-2020. Nobody that could have helped lift the burden off Larkin's shoulders at any juncture in a season, so we don't know how good the team could be with a 2C that can actually match up defensively against another team's top 2 lines.
Sure it would have helped to sign Danault, but this is free agency we are talking about. We cannot force players to sign with us.
I am with you on Copp. I think he is the best semi-realistic option for us. Again though, we cannot force him to sign with us. The only thing we have complete, unilateral control over is the draft.
About those back alleys I mentioned...
Seriously though, that's not true. At best you can influence how many lottery tickets you can buy, and what type. But it's still a lottery - there is no control possible. That's why it exists, to help prevent control.
No, the point is that we actually control who becomes an asset of the organization by picking the player, not where exactly we pick within the draft. You are correct that we cannot control picking earlier than third.
jkutswings
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You have total control in who you select. But compared to free agency, this is the "unknown commodity" end of the spectrum. Detroit could have a guy fall in their lap at 8 - or even snag a top 2 pick - and he still becomes the next Joe Veleno (or Pius Suter) instead of the next Dylan Larkin (or better).
Yes, there are a plethora of advantages to drafting as many of your players as possible. But while we can certainly debate when the moment happens, it's a foregone conclusion that there will be a moment when you have enough pieces to start climbing the standings, and you have to use more than just the draft to accomplish what you need to do.
Lazlo Hollyfeld
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Based on his press conference it sounds like Yzerman agrees with you.
As much as you can draw conclusions from anything he said, it seemed like he's planning on more middle of the road type UFAs versus competing in any big fish UFA sweepstakes.
jkutswings
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But even if he WANTS to make a splash, you don't SAY so. Then you've tipped your hand and lost leverage.
InjuredChoker
Registered User
well yzermans biggest mistakes came arguably july 1st. and whatever the date was when he extended callahan.
i think middle of the road types are far better option. except maybe i'd be interested in copp on a 4-5 yr deal. just 28 and could see him being valuable even in final years of the deal. but the UFA market is kind of bad this year and copp is the type of player that gets overpaid in FA.
OgeeOgelthorpe
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Copp is going to get a 6 year+ deal and will want probably 5.75 to 6.25 million a season. I'm betting he re-signs in New York where he has ties to players in that room and the Rangers did give up a lot of assets to get him.
Also Wings fans here need to get it in their heads that premier UFAs aren't going to sign for 3 and 4 year contracts. "But we don't want them when they're declining after age X!" is the wrong stance to take because you have to pay a premium for the upside of the player from age 28 to 32 or 33 and understand that you'll have to eat 2 or more seasons of declining play. And that is fine as long as the wheels don't fall off completely like they did with Nielsen, who was predictably bad as an over 32 year old FA signing.
InjuredChoker
Registered User
that is why i prefer mostly to stay out of UFA. and i don't see that as fine unless the team is going to rebuilding during the final years of those deals.
OgeeOgelthorpe
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And that's why our team sucks.
Look at the LA Kings - they improved their win percentage from 0.438 to 0.604 and are in the postseason.
Their big offseason additions? Alex Edler, veteran UFA defenseman, and Philip Danault, veteran UFA center and traded a 2nd and a 3rd for Viktor Arvidsson. They also got a solid rookie performance from Sean Durzi, a breakout year from Adrien Kempe and got a few goals from Andreas Athanasiou when healthy. He even finished a plus 7 this year!
How many of these moves were ground breaking, earth shattering moves? Not a single one of them. But what it DOES for the Kings, a team that was in the same boat as the Wings were in 2020-21 and with a prospect pool just as deep, is allow for their youth to come in and play 3rd and 4th line roles or 4th/5th/6th defensemen roles. Or when their kids DO play up the lineup then they're paired with a really savvy vet instead of serial loser Sam Gagner.
I'm not saying go out with a blank check like the 2002 wings and try to build a winner via free agency, but you fill in a couple of gaps because it will help the rest of the lineup play to their appropriate level. That's when you'll see more improvement out of the middle of the lineup where the Red Wings are hurting the most.
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