Willy Part XVI - The Zurich Summit

[Cor]

Educate me then.

What am I missing about him? Mezinger already said it - he's a standard shutdown 2nd pairing D-man. Take him out of that defense-first Carolina system and his partner Slavin and he'd be a fish out of water. He's essentially the Braun to the Vlasic or the Oduya to the Hjalmarrson. What special skills does he have that I'm missing here?

Psssst. Pesce is the Hjalmarsson. He's not even paired with Slavin this season, and still has good numbers (as does literally everyone on the Canes team, but still).

Slavin-Pesce is my dream pairing. They are so good. Both of them. I think Rielly-Pesce could be as good or better. While things don't need to be changed right now for Carolina, I doubt it'll be too long before Slavin-Pesce are back together and Hamilton plays with De Haan.

I don't even know why Carolina would be trading Pesce. Even for Nylander. He's a core piece there. He looks even better now that he has some easier usage and zone starts while Hamilton is playing with Slavin.

The idea of Dermott, Pesce and Zaitsev working our PK for the next decade hopefully gets my gitty. Rielly and Liljegren on the PP. Oh Boy!

 

[New Liskeard]

You do seem high on him. Be real here - do you see him being a shutdown guy of the caliber of say a Hjalmarrson, Vlasic or Slavin or potentially becoming that level down the road?

Pesce's a name that's been thrown out for awhile on here now, so I've kind of made a point to watch him when I can.

He crosses every box for the Leafs. Cor's post below is spot on reffering to PP and points. I dont know where his ceiling is, but is still quite young for a D, is a top pairing right hand D that can pass the puck and has size. Not to mention his contract is excellent and will go a long way to solidify the blueline and help with the cap. Is Pesce fair value for Nylander? That is a fair argument. What isnt is the fact that Pesce is a very good young D on a great contract and exactly what the Leafs need.

 

[hockeeyyy]

Howso...? I think Zaitsev undeservedly gets a bad rap on these boards... he's a solid #3 in my opinion

Yea, but for whatever reason, Gardiner and Zaitsev just don't work well together as a pairing. I would like to see Zaitsev play with Rielly or Dermott.

 

[ChurchOfMatthews]

Neither do I, but its becoming quite clear the Leafs arent going to budge.

...and I'm extremely happy they aren't.

 

[deletethis]

It shouldn't be forgotten that a competent defenseman with a lower AAV for term is just what the doctor ordered when comes to signing the other star forwards. It would be super sweet if every player were star caliber but just like everything else those old crazy dreams just kinda came and went (in 2005).

 

[TDotMassive]

If Nylander sits out the season, and the Leafs go on to win the cup (not a totally unrealistic scenario)... imagine the conversation his agent has to have.

"Sorry Willy, you don't get your name carved into the cup, but think long term about your contract future."

Has this ever happened before? Has a prominent RFA ever sat out a season, only to have his team win a cup without him?

 

[saffronleaf]

*whispers* Pesce isn’t a top pairing d man and at 24 is as good as he’s going to be....

Wouldn't be surprised if Nylander pulls a Hall. We should not trade him unless the return is as great as Nylander will be.

 

[Kiwi]

Hindsight is 20/20 pal. If kapanen continued his pace from last year you probably would be trying to chase him out the door.

Hell, let's just look at Johnsson, who hasn't got a real shot yet. What do you want to do with him? Sign him to an 8 year deal this summer?

No, I wanted to keep Kapanen at the lowest cap hit possible so we can keep him instead of possibly having to throw him overboard because our cap situation sucks

I want Johnnson to not break out until after he's signed this year, just like Rielly and Kadri did

 

[Menzinger]

It shouldn't be forgotten that a competent defenseman with a lower AAV for term is just what the doctor ordered when comes to signing the other star forwards. It would be super sweet if every player were star caliber but just like everything else those old crazy dreams just kinda came and went (in 2005).

Sure, but generally you can acquire those types without giving up a star player.

 

[Cor]

Yea, but for whatever reason, Gardiner and Zaitsev just don't work well together as a pairing. I would like to see Zaitsev play with Rielly or Dermott.

While it's still too early, I said before the season I expect the Leafs defense to go down the stretch as;

Rielly - Ozhiganov
Dermott - Zaitsev
Gardiner- Hainsey

2nd/3rd pairings can flipped whatever way people want them. I think Ozhiganov is gonna do extremely well. His early numbers are very encouraging. At 5v5, he's started just 53% of his starts in the offensive zone, and while above average, not as sheltered as you'd expect a rookie d-man to be. Attached to that when you score adjust the numbers, he has a CF% of 59.86% (RelTM is 10.61) and his xGF% is 50.58 (RelTM is 2.16).

Again, he's facing low QOC, and starts 53% of the time in the offensive zone, but those numbers, even adjusting them Relative to the rest of the team are extremely encouraging.

If he continues it, it won't be long before Babcock begins to give him more minutes, and potentially move up the lineup. Which we could see Zaitsev and Rielly paired together for a bit and Hainsey dropped down. My theory of MoOz comes from the fact that Rielly & Zaitsev didn't really work well last time they were paired together, so it that happened again, Oz could get a shot there.

 

[deletethis]

Just viewed a highlights video of Pesce. He's nothing terribly special. I'd say he's a notch below Zaitsev, a right handed Ron Hainsey with fresher legs.

 

[TheProspector]

Regardless of what happens long term, if he's not traded, they'll do a bridge deal on Nov 30.

 

[IPS]

Psssst. Pesce is the Hjalmarsson. He's not even paired with Slavin this season, and still has good numbers (as does literally everyone on the Canes team, but still).

Slavin-Pesce is my dream pairing. They are so good. Both of them. I think Rielly-Pesce could be as good or better. While things don't need to be changed right now for Carolina, I doubt it'll be too long before Slavin-Pesce are back together and Hamilton plays with De Haan.

I don't even know why Carolina would be trading Pesce. Even for Nylander. He's a core piece there. He looks even better now that he has some easier usage and zone starts while Hamilton is playing with Slavin.

The idea of Dermott, Pesce and Zaitsev working our PK for the next decade hopefully gets my gitty. Rielly and Liljegren on the PP. Oh Boy!

Pesce is behind both Hamilton and Faulk in ice-time. He's 4th on the team among D-men in TOI and plays under 20 minutes a game. Would he get a lot more ice-time with us? Absolutely. But I certainly wouldn't go so far as to call him Hjalmarrson.

It's imperative that we get a great defensemen back for Nylander. This might be our only shot to get such a dman.

 

[deletethis]

Sure, but generally you can acquire those types without giving up a star player.

You can? Like who?

 

[TheProspector]

I actually think the best possible outcome for the Leafs would be to bridge Nylander at HUGE money -- $12-13m, whatever takes them up to the cap on Dec 1 -- and then sign him for 8y at much a lower AAV next season. Willie gets paid what he would be missing out otherwise, Leafs get to keep the team together now and in the future. Everyone wins.

 

[daner]

Sure Pesce isn’t top top tier we’d hope to get back for Nylander but at 4M a season he’s signed to a great contract. That low cap hit holds value that is very important to teams spending to the cap ceiling such as the leafs. If we trade for a 7M defenceman we are in the same cap situation as we would be if we sign Nylander.

It’s certainly not an ideal trade skill for skill but we kind of have our backs against the wall. Wall being the salary cap.

If you ask me I’d rather have Pesce (4M) and Kapanen (3M) over Nylander (7M).

 

[deletethis]

Pesce is behind both Hamilton and Faulk in ice-time. He's 4th on the team among D-men in TOI and plays under 20 minutes a game. Would he get a lot more ice-time with us? Absolutely. But I certainly wouldn't go so far as to call him Hjalmarrson.

It's imperative that we get a great defensemen back for Nylander. This might be our only shot to get such a dman.

Hjalmarsson might be bang on. We won't be able to pay a great defenseman.

 

[Not My Tempo]

The fan in me wants us to keep Nylander just because I like watching high event hockey. Defense is for boring teams

 

[Menzinger]

You can? Like who?

Hamonic, McDonagh, Hamilton (from Boston), Shartenkirk all acquired in recent years without giving up a major bluechip asset like Nylander.

 

[Judas Tavares]

Just viewed a highlights video of Pesce. He's nothing terribly special. I'd say he's a notch below Zaitsev, a right handed Ron Hainsey with fresher legs.

I highlighted the word we don't need with the dman we need. We don't need highlights. We need a dman we didn't notice cause he did all the little boring things right. We aren't getting a Doughty or Karlsson type. So if we notice the dman we get, odds are we noticed him pulling a Gardiner derp.

 

[socko]

We're likely to have Nylander, Gardiner, and Marleau all coming off the books. We can afford a good defenseman.

 

[deletethis]

We don't know what else would come back with a Pesce, there's no way that it would a one for one deal. It would have to include significant futures as well.

 

[Snip Genos]

I actually think the best possible outcome for the Leafs would be to bridge Nylander at HUGE money -- $12-13m, whatever takes them up to the cap on Dec 1 -- and then sign him for 8y at much a lower AAV next season. Willie gets paid what he would be missing out otherwise, Leafs get to keep the team together now and in the future. Everyone wins.

That just doesn’t seam right tho

 

[TDotMassive]

I actually think the best possible outcome for the Leafs would be to bridge Nylander at HUGE money -- $12-13m, whatever takes them up to the cap on Dec 1 -- and then sign him for 8y at much a lower AAV next season. Willie gets paid what he would be missing out otherwise, Leafs get to keep the team together now and in the future. Everyone wins.

That's not a bad move, but could they make such an agreement? They couldn't put that in writing, it's sort of gaming the CBA.

 

[Menzinger]

We don't know what else would come back with a Pesce, there's no way that it would a one for one deal. It would have to include significant futures as well.

Perhaps this is where we would differ but a quantity package wouldn’t interest me in the slightest for a 22 year old guy Like Nylander: quality > quantity

Even if the Leafs were to trade Nylander I’d prefer they first sign him to a bridge deal and then trade him later when his valuebis at its peak, rather than now when the Leafs would certainly have to “sell low” on him