Willy Part XVI - The Zurich Summit

[TDotMassive]

Regardless of what happens long term, if he's not traded, they'll do a bridge deal on Nov 30.

I hope you're right, I want to see a Kapanen-Matthews-Nylander line. But... how stubborn can an agent and father be? Stubborn enough to sit a season out?? It's all speculation, but it's happened before. Imagine then we go on to win the cup... that's a hard sell right there.

 

[Cor]

Pesce is behind both Hamilton and Faulk in ice-time. He's 4th on the team among D-men in TOI and plays under 20 minutes a game. Would he get a lot more ice-time with us? Absolutely. But I certainly wouldn't go so far as to call him Hjalmarrson.

It's imperative that we get a great defensemen back for Nylander. This might be our only shot to get such a dman.

Pesce is 4th in overall TOI, but is literally seconds behind Dougie Hamilton for 3rd.
Pesce is 3rd in ES TOI, again about 1 minute behind Hamilton for 2nd, and only 4ish minutes behind Slavin for 1st
Pesce is 2nd in PK TOI, behind just Slavin.

He's their #3 guy behind Slavin and Hamilton. All 3 of those guys are top pairing guys. I personally consider Slavin a #1 guy, and Hamilton/Pesce as #2 guys.


Again, I totally understand the hesitatance to potentially moving Nylander for him. I sorta feel the same way, but Pesce would drastically change the look of our defense for the better, and would be a perfect partner for Rielly.

 

[Melo Meds]

Pesce is a nice piece but would need to be an add from Carolina to consider it. We don't want to end up regretting it after. Looking at you Edmonton.

 

[Cor]

I think, if a deal can't be struck, on December 1 they'll sign some sort of 1 year deal and revisit things in the summer.

There's 0 chance Nylander sits out the entire season.

 

[Mikeyg]

add for slavin, overpay for great players dont settle for good ones. Simple.

 

[socko]

Do a lot of posters think it's only cap space that prevents us from signing Willy? I think it's because he's asking for $2 million per year more than they think he's worth. I think they could pay it if they really wanted to. They don't want to overpay.

 

[Cor]

That's not a bad move, but could they make such an agreement? They couldn't put that in writing, it's sort of gaming the CBA.

They could technically sign the deal on December 1 and then sign the extension on January 1.

Not going to happen that way, but technically legal. Same thing as the speculation Leafs could have signed Tavares to a 1 year MAX contract and then extending him to an 8 year lower AAV deal on January 1 as well.

 

[New Liskeard]

Pesce is a nice piece but would need to be an add from Carolina to consider it. We don't want to end up regretting it after. Looking at you Edmonton.

That or overpaying for Nylander, making it difficult to sign Matthews and Marner and having to get rid of players for pennies on the dollar due to the cap issues. Chicago fans know this all to well

 

[Stephen]

If trading Nylander for Pesce or any other D man makes the Leafs better now and in the future, than that's what you do. I think it's a fair trade straight up, but I'd also be very happy if Carolina had to add.

Trading Nylander for Pesce takes a surplus guy who isn't in the lineup currently to fill a position of relative weakness elsewhere, but don't confuse that with making the Leafs better, because that's a massive downgrade in rare and likely difficult to replace talent.

Pesce is a good defenseman, but with the resources they are pumping into drafting and development I don't think that's a player we should have trouble building in house. Whereas, a top ten talent like Nylander likely won't be coming around very often if the Leafs are going to be in constant contention.

 

[deletethis]

Hamonic, McDonagh, Hamilton (from Boston), Shartenkirk all acquired in recent years without giving up a major bluechip asset like Nylander.

Interestingly Hamonic and Hamilton went for higher than the compensation level for signing an RFA in the range of $6-8M. McDonagh cost a lot more than that. Shattenkirk was a playoff rental.

 

[ITM]

Continuing from the last WN thread...You said:

What success? It’s the same thing with this guy every time a negotiation comes up for his high profile clients. He demands something outlandish, the team rightfully tells him to take a hike, then he pouts all offseason and sometimes into the regular season until he eventually caves and has his client sign for something reasonable.

Wow, what a master negotiator. He oughtta teach a class.

Citing that an agent with high-profile clients in the NHL is successful is essentially a tautology. He has...clients...in the NHL. It's self-evident. And it's isolated in it's implication.

More importantly, my point, the actual context intended, addressed the likely difficult situation William Nylander is faced with given his circle of influence. Detached from real-life consequences, it's effortless to point out what one person should or shouldn't do. But as completely removed from his situation as any single person can be, you know very little, to a certitude, what's gone on behind closed doors and certainly next to nothing about the kind of dynamic Nylander's facing or the tools he has to navigate with in that situation.

I'm a Leafs fan and I want what's best for the club and could care less about the bottom line of Nylander's agent. The post you replied to, gave the benefit of the doubt to Nylander, not Gross.

 

[Melo Meds]

That or overpaying for Nylander, making it difficult to sign Matthews and Marner and having to get rid of players for pennies on the dollar due to the cap issues. Chicago fans know this all to well

That's why I'm glad we're playing hardball with him.

 

[ITM]

If the idea is to acquire a cheap, reliable, RHD, why not kick tires on Markus Nutivaara? He appears to have a higher offensive upside, and is signed to an even cheaper contract than Pesce.

Bottom line...Trading William Nylander as a principal in the deal should see Brett Pesce as the supplemental piece, not the primary piece returning.

 

[TDotMassive]

They could technically sign the deal on December 1 and then sign the extension on January 1.

Not going to happen that way, but technically legal. Same thing as the speculation Leafs could have signed Tavares to a 1 year MAX contract and then extending him to an 8 year lower AAV deal on January 1 as well.

Interesting... that's really not such a bad idea then. Nylander get's paid (and alot upfront), and we get a low cap hit. It seems so insanely brilliant... why isn't this happening? Must be something we're not seeing.

 

[Stephen]

How many points does he put up and how much PP time does he get? He is better than you are making him out to be; that i can assure you.

Bad Leaf teams of old usually fell for the trick of "Player X is in a somewhat limited role behind so and so, but given free reign and more opportunities you could see him blossom into that guy your team really, really needs." Jonathan Bernier, Vesa Toskala, Francois Beauchemin, Mike Komisarek, Pavel Kubina, David Clarkson, etc. at various positions all fall into that category. You take a guy who is well insulated in Pesce and start talking PP time, you're probably going down a bad road.

 

[Stephen]

If the idea is to acquire a cheap, reliable, RHD, why not kick tires on Markus Nutivaara? He appears to have a higher offensive upside, and is signed to an even cheaper contract than Pesce.

Bottom line...Trading William Nylander as a principal in the deal should see Brett Pesce as the supplemental piece, not the primary piece returning.

Agreed on all accounts.

If we have an amazing pro scouting and analytics department, I'd expect them to find a hidden gem for cheap than to pay premium for a guy who has been benefiting from a hipster promotional campaign for a few years now. Carolina is quite notorious for pumping up the value of their D.

 

[56 Years No Cup]

I actually think the best possible outcome for the Leafs would be to bridge Nylander at HUGE money -- $12-13m, whatever takes them up to the cap on Dec 1 -- and then sign him for 8y at much a lower AAV next season. Willie gets paid what he would be missing out otherwise, Leafs get to keep the team together now and in the future. Everyone wins.

Why is this repeatedly brought up?

It. Can't. Be. Done. Without. Huge. Risk.

 

[ITM]

Bad Leaf teams of old usually fell for the trick of "Player X is in a somewhat limited role behind so and so, but given free reign and more opportunities you could see him blossom into that guy your team really, really needs." Jonathan Bernier, Vesa Toskala, Francois Beauchemin, Mike Komisarek, Pavel Kubina, David Clarkson, etc. at various positions all fall into that category. You take a guy who is well insulated in Pesce and start talking PP time, you're probably going down a bad road.

Sticky and repeat.

And this is precisely the case with Brett Pesce.

 

[Stephen]

I actually think the best possible outcome for the Leafs would be to bridge Nylander at HUGE money -- $12-13m, whatever takes them up to the cap on Dec 1 -- and then sign him for 8y at much a lower AAV next season. Willie gets paid what he would be missing out otherwise, Leafs get to keep the team together now and in the future. Everyone wins.

Yeah that's what I was thinking too. When would the re-negotiation window open? Like a month later? Give him the cash and bonus up front and then re-sign him to a lower AAV a month later.

 

[deletethis]

Perhaps this is where we would differ but a quantity package wouldn’t interest me in the slightest for a 22 year old guy Like Nylander: quality > quantity

Even if the Leafs were to trade Nylander I’d prefer they first sign him to a bridge deal and then trade him later when his valuebis at its peak, rather than now when the Leafs would certainly have to “sell low” on him

I haven't posted this thought yet but I've been thinking there is going to need to be a strategy going forward to create a steady influx of cheap quality youth over the next decade to maintain the team as a contender. Futures that have a higher chance to develop into cheap options when other forwards get too expensive will be a necessity. That's other team's 1st/2nd round draft picks, other team's quality prospects. This is something Chicago had to do when useful young players like Byfuglien/Versteeg/Ladd/Brouwer/Niemi had to go when raises were due to them.

Forget to say: a bridge deal seems to make complete sense. I can only assume it's Nylander's camp that doesn't want to go in that direction.

 

[New Liskeard]

Bad Leaf teams of old usually fell for the trick of "Player X is in a somewhat limited role behind so and so, but given free reign and more opportunities you could see him blossom into that guy your team really, really needs." Jonathan Bernier, Vesa Toskala, Francois Beauchemin, Mike Komisarek, Pavel Kubina, David Clarkson, etc. at various positions all fall into that category. You take a guy who is well insulated in Pesce and start talking PP time, you're probably going down a bad road.

You are taking my post out of context. It was in response to a poster asking about his defensive awareness and upside. As you cans see it references looking at his whole body of work to see what he is and what roles he has been put in.

He is already a very good top 2 right handed D who is young on an excellent contract. That does not change anything. If asking about offensive deficiencies, refer to my post.

 

[56 Years No Cup]

DELETE.

 

[kb]

I actually think the best possible outcome for the Leafs would be to bridge Nylander at HUGE money -- $12-13m, whatever takes them up to the cap on Dec 1 -- and then sign him for 8y at much a lower AAV next season. Willie gets paid what he would be missing out otherwise, Leafs get to keep the team together now and in the future. Everyone wins.

OK. now go to the CBA and find out what the Leafs have to offer him by the CBA rules as the minimum on his next year's salary. Then come back and tell me if this is a good idea.

 

[Snip Genos]

Do a lot of posters think it's only cap space that prevents us from signing Willy? I think it's because he's asking for $2 million per year more than they think he's worth. I think they could pay it if they really wanted to. They don't want to overpay.

But it’s all about cap space for sure though, especially 2, 3, 4+ years down the line.

 

[56 Years No Cup]

OK. now go to the CBA and find out what the Leafs have to offer him by the CBA rules as the mbase on his next yer's salary.

Yup.