William Nylander Value/Contract

[Menzinger]

Since it’s relevant to this thread on the last leafs a report podcast yesterday, Mirtle and Siegel said the Nylander camp was open to a contract offer from the Leafs last offseason - but don’t say if they wanted long vs short term deal

 

[diceman934]

gross, and the overrating of marner continues. Marner had a great season and still only had 9 more points that nylander, Matthews had an injury hit season and was ppg when he played. Had he played 82 he would of had 82 points 13 points better than marner against tougher competition. marner is closer to Nylander than he is to Matthews

edit: 8 more points than nylander, sorry

Marner in his first season matched Mathews point for point before he was injured and sick. Marner produce against the other teams best lines at over a point a game and was our best player from December onwards and that includes Mathews. Nylander has shown that he can produce when playing with Mathews and Marner has never had that luxury.

How is he being grossly overrated if fact I say he is being grossly underrated. Your post is proof as omitting facts.

 

[Walshy7]

Marner in his first season matched Mathews point for point before he was injured and sick. Marner produce against the other teams best lines at over a point a game and was our best player from December onwards and that includes Mathews. Nylander has shown that he can produce when playing with Mathews and Marner has never had that luxury.

How is he being grossly overrated if fact I say he is being grossly underrated. Your post is proof as omitting facts.

first of all please read my post properly. I said "Gross, and the overrating..." simple reading comprehension tells you that the gross was not part of the overrating part of the quote due the comma.

Over the whole season Matthews when playing played the tougher competition while he was out sure marner probably got tougher match ups that's 20 games, 20 games is too small a sample size because earlier in the season Marner has 2 goals in over 20 games im sure you weren't using that as evidence then. With how great he played this season he ended up with 69 points Matthews had 6 fewer in 20 fewer games, to say marner is our best player is overrating him. For the record someone can be a great player and still get overrated im not saying marner is shit or anything like that, just that Matthews is better that is all. Not a particularly hot take there.

Also to the bolded you seem to be trying to imply im saying nylander is better, my post was about Matthews being better and I said Marner is closer to nylander than Matthews. Marner right now is better than nylander obviously, but the gap between those 2 is closer than marner Matthews.

 

[Mugzy97]

I believe 2 of the big 3 get 8 years... I think Willy is getting the bridge.

 

[Nithoniniel]

I believe 2 of the big 3 get 8 years... I think Willy is getting the bridge.

A lot of the immediate cap problems would go so much smoother with a bridge deal for him, even if it in isolation is not the best choice.

I've been thinking a bit about it, and I think I honestly don't really care. I don't think our cap management will be dependent on whether we pay a few million too much for our five best players. You pay for your top talent because that's not something you get access to again. What creates problems is if you start paying out big money to your 6-15 guys, and they turn out to be replaceable pieces. If we avoid that, what the core costs won't matter.

Another benefit is that if we do a three year bridge, we can tie him up for 11 years which would cover all the years he can be reasonably expected to be a core player. I think getting a last contract that is reasonable is probably easier with him at 33 and on the decline than it would be at 30, where he is likely putting up seasons not that far from his peak.

 

[Mugzy97]

A lot of the immediate cap problems would go so much smoother with a bridge deal for him, even if it in isolation is not the best choice.

I've been thinking a bit about it, and I think I honestly don't really care. I don't think our cap management will be dependent on whether we pay a few million too much for our five best players. You pay for your top talent because that's not something you get access to again. What creates problems is if you start paying out big money to your 6-15 guys, and they turn out to be replaceable pieces. If we avoid that, what the core costs won't matter.

I agree. The reason I think Willy gets the bridge is because he's RFA right now and it appears management isn't even sure what position he is going to play and still has a lot to prove. Instead of cracking the bank on the unknown, it's better to bridge it on a "prove it" contract. Make sure you're paying for a star C or not. It just seems to make sense IMO.

 

[FreeBird]

I believe 2 of the big 3 get 8 years... I think Willy is getting the bridge.

Willy should get half of what Pastrnak is getting he's half the player, Pastrnak goes to the Net more in one game than Willy does in a year.

 

[Buds17]

I believe 2 of the big 3 get 8 years... I think Willy is getting the bridge.

Not certain about a bridge (2-3 yrs?), but I could see him getting the lowest term of the three because of the potential position change. I think Matthews and Marner could get the same (max) term if one signs now so the deals expire at different times.

 

[Knightnight]

Not true 3rd liners dont play top minutes so it goes hand in hand that if you get icetime you are on the top 2 lines or play a ton of specialty teams. Kessel 3rd line but regularly double shifted with top lines. Please show me one player in the top 20 in the NHL playing on a 3rd line. Actually name more than 2 in top 50 playing sheltered minutes. I am waiting for your analytics.

 

[MyBudJT]

What specific aspect of on-ice impact do you consider separates key players from complimentary? I'm just asking to fully understand what areas of the game you think holds Nylander back from being a key player.

Personally, I'd say that the reasonable expectation is that he'll follow the average development curve, and to see a correction of the absurd PP situation he and Matthews were in. Even if his development from now on is below average, that would peg him as someone who can produce about 70 points in tough matchups while producing high-end individual numbers for everything from puck retrievals to transition to playmaking. That sounds like a key player to me.

I think having a linchpin talent like Matthews and a guy who looks poised to be a superstar sooner rather than later in Marner makes people overlook just what a rare talent Nylander really is. The step down from that comparison to complementary status is quite big, in my opinion.

. Maybe it’s a style thing, but when I watch nylander play, the compete doesn’t match that of a star player. It’s the drive train and iq that’s lacking IMO. I think having skill is very important, but skill alone doesn’t make an elite player. It can make a very good one (which nylander is)... a very good player can still be a key player (ie:jvr) but that’s not a star player imo. As you know, development isn’t linear! There are many cases where players don’t significantly improve off of their soft more places. There are also many players and prospects who get overrated because they played with a superstar line mate... just another reason to have caution before pegging nylander as a sure fire superstar.

 

[MyBudJT]

gross, and the overrating of marner continues. Marner had a great season and still only had 9 more points that nylander, Matthews had an injury hit season and was ppg when he played. Had he played 82 he would of had 82 points 13 points better than marner against tougher competition. marner is closer to Nylander than he is to Matthews

edit: 8 more points than nylander, sorry

marner is younger than nylander though! That should also be taken into account here

 

[Walshy7]

marner is younger than nylander though! That should also be taken into account here

sure and marner got to play on the pp unit that one of the best pp forwards in the league on it (JVR) and bozak being the worst player on it. Meanwhile a ice cold marleau was 3rd best on matthews/nylander unit that had komarov and brown on it at various times. 27 pp points there. Again im only saying marner is closer to nylander than he is matthews that is all, marner has the edge right now and looks the goods no argument here

 

[WTFMAN99]

amd why i'm saying to bridge him

at 4-5M?

 

[Menzinger]

. Maybe it’s a style thing, but when I watch nylander play, the compete doesn’t match that of a star player. It’s the drive train and iq that’s lacking IMO. I think having skill is very important, but skill alone doesn’t make an elite player. It can make a very good one (which nylander is)... a very good player can still be a key player (ie:jvr) but that’s not a star player imo. As you know, development isn’t linear! There are many cases where players don’t significantly improve off of their soft more places. There are also many players and prospects who get overrated because they played with a superstar line mate... just another reason to have caution before pegging nylander as a sure fire superstar.

But none of Nylander’s underlying number s suggests he’s being propped up offensively by Matthews.

He’s been a prolific scorer at every level of hcokey he’s played - including playing in the AHL/SHL as teen.

I can understand somebody liking Marner more, but what I have a hard time grasping is why folks, of all things, are somehow sceptical of Nylander’s offense and its potential. Imo that’s one of the safest things the team could bet on improving.

 

[therealkoho]

at 4-5M?

5

the Leafs hold all the cards

 

[Menzinger]

A lot of the immediate cap problems would go so much smoother with a bridge deal for him, even if it in isolation is not the best choice.

I've been thinking a bit about it, and I think I honestly don't really care. I don't think our cap management will be dependent on whether we pay a few million too much for our five best players. You pay for your top talent because that's not something you get access to again. What creates problems is if you start paying out big money to your 6-15 guys, and they turn out to be replaceable pieces. If we avoid that, what the core costs won't matter.

Another benefit is that if we do a three year bridge, we can tie him up for 11 years which would cover all the years he can be reasonably expected to be a core player. I think getting a last contract that is reasonable is probably easier with him at 33 and on the decline than it would be at 30, where he is likely putting up seasons not that far from his peak.

I do like the idea of locking him up for that 11 year range. It certainly makes that Second RFA contract fall under more favourable years. But the problem I keep circling back to is, If he hit 70 points or so over the next two years you’re looking at potentially as much is 8.5 million or so to lock him up on the next deal.

I almost lean towards now a medium range deal of five or six years at a lower caphit is the best option. That would allow the leafs to still lock him up on his first UFA deal over a good age range

 

[kindalaidback]

sure and marner got to play on the pp unit that one of the best pp forwards in the league on it (JVR) and bozak being the worst player on it. Meanwhile a ice cold marleau was 3rd best on matthews/nylander unit that had komarov and brown on it at various times. 27 pp points there. Again im only saying marner is closer to nylander than he is matthews that is all, marner has the edge right now and looks the goods no argument here

Marner fans think we want to discredit his accomplishments which is nonsense. But it's fair to recognize that Babcock (or whoever is responsible for the PP) didn't do much to support Matthews and Nylander, especially Willie whenever Auston was not playing.

and lol @ Nylander lacking IQ.

 

[diceman934]

first of all please read my post properly. I said "Gross, and the overrating..." simple reading comprehension tells you that the gross was not part of the overrating part of the quote due the comma.

Over the whole season Matthews when playing played the tougher competition while he was out sure marner probably got tougher match ups that's 20 games, 20 games is too small a sample size because earlier in the season Marner has 2 goals in over 20 games im sure you weren't using that as evidence then. With how great he played this season he ended up with 69 points Matthews had 6 fewer in 20 fewer games, to say marner is our best player is overrating him. For the record someone can be a great player and still get overrated im not saying marner is **** or anything like that, just that Matthews is better that is all. Not a particularly hot take there.

Also to the bolded you seem to be trying to imply im saying nylander is better, my post was about Matthews being better and I said Marner is closer to nylander than Matthews. Marner right now is better than nylander obviously, but the gap between those 2 is closer than marner Matthews.

You said clearly that people are grossly over rating Marner when I said I believe he is far more under rated and again like the last post I address this with you. You continue to under rate Marner.

Mathews played very little head to head against the other teams top lines. He drew top D pairing but not top lines as he got the other teams shut down forwards which generally are not high octane offensive units. Marner at Christmas got moved to our shut down line playing against the other teams best lines and not only did he contribute to shutting them down he play at over a ppg pace. In year one for Both Marner and Mathews they were both produce the same amount of points per game until Marner got hurt and sick with less TOI by the way, yet you say that Marner is most close to Nylander and not Mathews when that simply is not true. From Christmas on Marner was our best player and it was not even close.

Mathews and Marner will always be close In points and I fully expect that Marner will lead us in point as many or more seasons then Mathews.

Just an FYI When Marner had two goals I posted that I expected him to get 20 this year and said time after time that Marner is a franchise player and I was told I was wrong. He did get 20 goals as he has far to much skill and drive to not, Bozak and JVR could not take advantage of the opportunities that Marner presented them. So he was move to a line with tougher zone starts and against top lines and he dominated. More skill to work with and an increase in ice time and he flourished.

 

[MyBudJT]

sure and marner got to play on the pp unit that one of the best pp forwards in the league on it (JVR) and bozak being the worst player on it. Meanwhile a ice cold marleau was 3rd best on matthews/nylander unit that had komarov and brown on it at various times. 27 pp points there. Again im only saying marner is closer to nylander than he is matthews that is all, marner has the edge right now and looks the goods no argument here

Marner's unit was the top PP unit because they performed better than the Matthews one, correct.... But give me Matthews and Marleau over JVR and Bozak any day of the week. It was Marner who was the driver of the #1PP unit, and I'd suggest if you switched Marner and Nylander, the Matthews unit would have become the #1 unit. The 'ice cold Marleau' scored more goals than Nylander without playing with Matthews...

But none of Nylander’s underlying number s suggests he’s being propped up offensively by Matthews.

He’s been a prolific scorer at every level of hcokey he’s played - including playing in the AHL/SHL as teen.

I can understand somebody liking Marner more, but what I have a hard time grasping is why folks, of all things, are somehow sceptical of Nylander’s offense and its potential. Imo that’s one of the safest things the team could bet on improving.

Can you elaborate on this, what 'underlying numbers' do you speak of?

I'm not suggesting Nylander is a bad player... I'm suggesting he's not a star play, and will not become a superstar. I think Nylander is a very good complimentary player who MIGHT be able to reach 70P once or twice in his career. I'd classify Nylander closer to a JVR or a Vanek than I would a Backstrom.

Marner fans think we want to discredit his accomplishments which is nonsense. But it's fair to recognize that Babcock (or whoever is responsible for the PP) didn't do much to support Matthews and Nylander, especially Willie whenever Auston was not playing.

and lol @ Nylander lacking IQ.

1) I don't think anyone thinks 'Nylander fans' are trying to discredit Marner...
2) So you're blaming Babcock on Nylander's 'failures'...? I'd love to hear your arguments supporting this...
3) You're taking my IQ comment out of context... I suggested his IQ is what separates him from advancing past a VERY good player to a star player... I expand on this furthur... He offensively has very good IQ... but when it comes to the whole game (defensive end, positioning, etc), I'm not convinced its all there.

 

[kindalaidback]

You said clearly that people are grossly over rating Marner when I said I believe he is far more under rated and again like the last post I address this with you. You continue to under rate Marner.

Mathews played very little head to head against the other teams top lines. He drew top D pairing but not top lines as he got the other teams shut down forwards which generally are not high octane offensive units. Marner at Christmas got moved to our shut down line playing against the other teams best lines and not only did he contribute to shutting them down he play at over a ppg pace. In year one for Both Marner and Mathews they were both produce the same amount of points per game until Marner got hurt and sick with less TOI by the way, yet you say that Marner is most close to Nylander and not Mathews when that simply is not true. From Christmas on Marner was our best player and it was not even close.

Mathews and Marner will always be close In points and I fully expect that Marner will lead us in point as many or more seasons then Mathews.

Just an FYI When Marner had two goals I posted that I expected him to get 20 this year and said time after time that Marner is a franchise player and I was told I was wrong. He did get 20 goals as he has far to much skill and drive to not, Bozak and JVR could not take advantage of the opportunities that Marner presented them. So he was move to a line with tougher zone starts and against top lines and he dominated. More skill to work with and an increase in ice time and he flourished.

Dude, stop. Marner got moved to the Kadri line on January 24; it was the game against Chicago. Until then he played mostly with Bozak and JvR and his 4 or 5 games on the fourth line.

 

[Knightnight]

Dude, stop. Marner got moved to the Kadri line on January 24; it was the game against Chicago. Until then he played mostly with Bozak and JvR and his 4 or 5 games on the fourth line.

You are quoting stuff and blow your credibility with 4 or 5 games on the 4th. It was 12 games. Count them 12 games throughout the start of the season. There was a reason Marner was 8th or 9th in icetime for most of the season and only moved up to 6th for forwards by end of year. If Lea was not hurt he probably would have been the seventh forward for TOI. Funny icetime went up in playoffs tougher match ups in playoffs and more points. Sheltered minutes is the biggest load of crap talked about on this site

 

[kindalaidback]

You are quoting stuff and blow your credibility with 4 or 5 games on the 4th. It was 12 games. Count them 12 games throughout the start of the season. There was a reason Marner was 8th or 9th in icetime for most of the season and only moved up to 6th for forwards by end of year. If Lea was not hurt he probably would have been the seventh forward for TOI. Funny icetime went up in playoffs tougher match ups in playoffs and more points. Sheltered minutes is the biggest load of crap talked about on this site

I'm saying 4 or 5 games because you guys always act like he spent there an entire season which is not true.

 

[Nithoniniel]

Maybe it’s a style thing

Yeah but that's why I asked about the specific impact that you feel he lacks. If he achieves results, does style really matter? If he is effective in all areas of the game, doesn't the lack of consistent effort just indicate upside?

just another reason to have caution before pegging nylander as a sure fire superstar.

Here's where I differ from most and might trip down the fandom path, but I think this is highly overstated.

If you look at individual work load on that line, Nylander actually does more of the work. Matthews wins more puck in the defensive zone, but Nylander does everything in transition more. In the offensive zone, he makes more plays than Matthews. He is the primary playmaker and they want Matthews to be the trigger man so no wonder, but still. And when it comes to puck retrieval, he's not that far behind.

And then you have their time apart, where Matthews saw a bigger drop in performance than Nylander. You could also look at their time with the same linemates (Hyman-Brown) in the same usage, and they have about equal production while Nylander has better underlying numbers. Which again, I don't necessarily think is about their relative ability, but more that Nylander is an absolute gem as a transition player, and those guys need someone to transport the puck for them.

To me, this indicates more of a mutually beneficial relationship, rather than a dependent one.

But the problem I keep circling back to is, If he hit 70 points or so over the next two years you’re looking at potentially as much is 8.5 million or so to lock him up on the next deal.

Yeah I did too, but then I ended up feeling that if we end up paying a million more to a core player, that's not the end of the world. It just means there's a little less room to make mistakes where it really matters, paying medium-range money to guys that might be replaceable assets.

Take Chicago, for example. People talk about Kane and Toews taking up so much cap space, but does that really matter compared to a replacement level player in Seabrook getting huge money?

 

[kindalaidback]

1) I don't think anyone thinks 'Nylander fans' are trying to discredit Marner...
2) So you're blaming Babcock on Nylander's 'failures'...? I'd love to hear your arguments supporting this...
3) You're taking my IQ comment out of context... I suggested his IQ is what separates him from advancing past a VERY good player to a star player... I expand on this furthur... He offensively has very good IQ... but when it comes to the whole game (defensive end, positioning, etc), I'm not convinced its all there.

1) I'm necessarily not talking about you, but there are a few people on this board who think that way.
2) I'm not implying anything or blame Babcock on Nylander's failures. I'm saying that he didn't do much to support them, like, trying to spark them. That doesn't mean I believe he is at fault for his two players not producing.
3) Yeah, this is your opinion, but I disagree with you.

 

[WTFMAN99]

5

the Leafs hold all the cards

I'd offer 6 for 7, no need to offer 5 on a bridge.