William Nylander Value/Contract

[Walshy7]

You said clearly that people are grossly over rating Marner when I said I believe he is far more under rated and again like the last post I address this with you. You continue to under rate Marner.

Mathews played very little head to head against the other teams top lines. He drew top D pairing but not top lines as he got the other teams shut down forwards which generally are not high octane offensive units. Marner at Christmas got moved to our shut down line playing against the other teams best lines and not only did he contribute to shutting them down he play at over a ppg pace. In year one for Both Marner and Mathews they were both produce the same amount of points per game until Marner got hurt and sick with less TOI by the way, yet you say that Marner is most close to Nylander and not Mathews when that simply is not true. From Christmas on Marner was our best player and it was not even close.

Mathews and Marner will always be close In points and I fully expect that Marner will lead us in point as many or more seasons then Mathews.

Just an FYI When Marner had two goals I posted that I expected him to get 20 this year and said time after time that Marner is a franchise player and I was told I was wrong. He did get 20 goals as he has far to much skill and drive to not, Bozak and JVR could not take advantage of the opportunities that Marner presented them. So he was move to a line with tougher zone starts and against top lines and he dominated. More skill to work with and an increase in ice time and he flourished.

1st bold: no that is not what i said. I said "gross, and the overrating of marner..." im not sure what is so hard for you to understand here. I did not say marner is grossly overrated, i said the overrating of him continues. Ok ill put it another way "YUK, and the overrating of marner..." is that better?.

2nd bold: Did matthews not get hurt this year and whilst playing not got PPG which is, i think, better than 69 points in 82 games could be wrong here.

edit: i dont underrate marner at all. He is a fantastic player i love him on the leafs. What he isnt though is better than Matthews. 40 goal rookie season and on pace again for it. He scored 1 less goal in year one than marner has in 2 seasons.

I could be wrong but werent you one of the posters saying Ehlers is better than Nylander due to goals?

 

[Notsince67]

5

the Leafs hold all the cards

It is a bit low. Easy offer-letter at 5.9MM would mean little in compensation

 

[MyBudJT]

Yeah but that's why I asked about the specific impact that you feel he lacks. If he achieves results, does style really matter? If he is effective in all areas of the game, doesn't the lack of consistent effort just indicate upside?

Well, if you want to be technical, I can list many things Nylander 'lacks'... Size, Physicality, Boardwork, Grit, Drivetrain, Defensive IQ, etc... but to be honest, each of these categories in its own is irrelevant.

Lots of good players 'acheive results'... I'm not saying Nylander is a bad player... but I am not convinced he has superstar potential.

The lack of consistent effort COULD indicate upside... I"ll concede that... BUTTTT It is ALSO a large red flag IMO. What precentage of players who lack the 'consistent effort' all of a sudden learn how to get it after playing four years of pro hockey...? I suspect more players fail to find this 'consistent effort "Boost" button' than the ones that find it.

Here's where I differ from most and might trip down the fandom path, but I think this is highly overstated.

If you look at individual work load on that line, Nylander actually does more of the work. Matthews wins more puck in the defensive zone, but Nylander does everything in transition more. In the offensive zone, he makes more plays than Matthews. He is the primary playmaker and they want Matthews to be the trigger man so no wonder, but still. And when it comes to puck retrieval, he's not that far behind.

And then you have their time apart, where Matthews saw a bigger drop in performance than Nylander. You could also look at their time with the same linemates (Hyman-Brown) in the same usage, and they have about equal production while Nylander has better underlying numbers. Which again, I don't necessarily think is about their relative ability, but more that Nylander is an absolute gem as a transition player, and those guys need someone to transport the puck for them.

To me, this indicates more of a mutually beneficial relationship, rather than a dependent one.

I don't think Nylander does more of the work on Matthews' line at all... I think you're ignoring how much room Matthews gets his wingers... Nylander has more time and space with the puck playing with Matthews than he would any other center on our team. Its obvious what Nylander can do when he has time and space..., but he his space largely deminishes when he is away from Matthews.

Can you show me this 'bigger dop in performance' when Matthews is away from Nylander? Regardless, I don't beleive it. I don't think anyone is suggesiting Brown or Hyman is better than Nylander... But Matthews WILL perform no matter who his linemates are... We have yet to see Nylander become the main driver of his line... we have yet to see him perform (consistently) away from Matthews.

I normally agree with most of your opinions Nith, but not on Nylander... Earlier you suggest he had Backstrom upside... Well... Nylander has a LOOOONNNGGGG Way to go before he reaches that! Backstrom at Nylander's age had 103 points in 96 seasons + playoff games at Nylander's age now... Nylander just finished a 65 point in 89 game campagin.

 

[Notsince67]

Marner's unit was the top PP unit because they performed better than the Matthews one, correct.... But give me Matthews and Marleau over JVR and Bozak any day of the week. It was Marner who was the driver of the #1PP unit, and I'd suggest if you switched Marner and Nylander, the Matthews unit would have become the #1 unit. The 'ice cold Marleau' scored more goals than Nylander without playing with Matthews...

This is exactly correct. I am not asking skeptics to believe this. Just pay attention next year when things shift yet again

 

[Boutette]

Well, if you want to be technical, I can list many things Nylander 'lacks'... Size, Physicality, Boardwork, Grit, Drivetrain, Defensive IQ, etc... but to be honest, each of these categories in its own is irrelevant.

Lots of good players 'acheive results'... I'm not saying Nylander is a bad player... but I am not convinced he has superstar potential.

The lack of consistent effort COULD indicate upside... I"ll concede that... BUTTTT It is ALSO a large red flag IMO. What precentage of players who lack the 'consistent effort' all of a sudden learn how to get it after playing four years of pro hockey...? I suspect more players fail to find this 'consistent effort "Boost" button' than the ones that find it.



I don't think Nylander does more of the work on Matthews' line at all... I think you're ignoring how much room Matthews gets his wingers... Nylander has more time and space with the puck playing with Matthews than he would any other center on our team. Its obvious what Nylander can do when he has time and space..., but he his space largely deminishes when he is away from Matthews.

Can you show me this 'bigger dop in performance' when Matthews is away from Nylander? Regardless, I don't beleive it. I don't think anyone is suggesiting Brown or Hyman is better than Nylander... But Matthews WILL perform no matter who his linemates are... We have yet to see Nylander become the main driver of his line... we have yet to see him perform (consistently) away from Matthews.

I normally agree with most of your opinions Nith, but not on Nylander... Earlier you suggest he had Backstrom upside... Well... Nylander has a LOOOONNNGGGG Way to go before he reaches that! Backstrom at Nylander's age had 103 points in 96 seasons + playoff games at Nylander's age now... Nylander just finished a 65 point in 89 game campagin.

Comparing Backstrom's 2008-2009 numbers to Nylander's is just utterly absurd. I mean, Backstrom was likely on the ice at least 20% more often than Nylander was this year. He was playing with Ovechkin (110 pts), Semin (79 pts) and Mike Green (73 pts) instead of Matthews (63), Hyman (40) and Gardiner (52). Hell, Ovechkin alone had about as many shots on goal in 2008-2009 as the entire Matthews line did this year. So silly.

 

[diceman934]

Dude, stop. Marner got moved to the Kadri line on January 24; it was the game against Chicago. Until then he played mostly with Bozak and JvR and his 4 or 5 games on the fourth line.

Yes and from Dec onward he was our best player.

And I do not need to stop as it is a fact jack.

 

[diceman934]

1st bold: no that is not what i said. I said "gross, and the overrating of marner..." im not sure what is so hard for you to understand here. I did not say marner is grossly overrated, i said the overrating of him continues. Ok ill put it another way "YUK, and the overrating of marner..." is that better?.

2nd bold: Did matthews not get hurt this year and whilst playing not got PPG which is, i think, better than 69 points in 82 games could be wrong here.

edit: i dont underrate marner at all. He is a fantastic player i love him on the leafs. What he isnt though is better than Matthews. 40 goal rookie season and on pace again for it. He scored 1 less goal in year one than marner has in 2 seasons.

I could be wrong but werent you one of the posters saying Ehlers is better than Nylander due to goals?

Lol sorry but you consistently underrate Marner why not admit it you think Nylander is better which is absurd.

 

[Menzinger]

Lol sorry but you consistently underrate Marner why not admit it you think Nylander is better which is absurd.

It’s not absurd, the two players are incredibly close even though Marner likely has the slight edge because of his youth. I perfectly understand favouring Marner, but they’re as close as two players can be.

 

[MyBudJT]

It’s not absurd, the two players are incredibly close even though Marner likely has the slight edge because of his youth. I perfectly understand favouring Marner, but they’re as close as two players can be.

This simply isn’t true. There are little to no stats that show Nylander is better than Marner. Marner has done more, with lower quality line mates, at a younger age. I probably wouldn’t take two Nylanders for one Marner...

 

[Nithoniniel]

Well, if you want to be technical, I can list many things Nylander 'lacks'

You are missing the point. Someone is a star or core player because what they provide on the ice in terms of results is beyond what the normal player can provide. Not because they tick of all the boxes in terms of individual attributes.

It's not like Patrick Kane ticks off all those things either.

So that's why I'm asking not what attributes he lacks, but what they lead to that is a problem. Because as far as I can see, I don't see any area of the game where he doesn't counter weaknesses with strengths and get good results.

Can you show me this 'bigger dop in performance' when Matthews is away from Nylander?

I'll see if I can find it for you. But Matthews did not produce all that well with Hyman and Brown, and his underlying metrics sank considerably. It's been noted quite a few times before.

But Matthews WILL perform no matter who his linemates are

Sure. His lines have not been successful no matter who his linemates are though, which to me indicates that there's something missing. I'm not saying Matthews has been bad, I'm saying that to get the most out of him, you want him with someone who can transition the puck and act as a primary high-end playmaker. Marner and Nylander can be that.

Earlier you suggest he had Backstrom upside

That would be Bäckström now, the PPG two-way center who can drive play. I don't think it's reasonable to expect Nylander to match what Bäckström did playing second fiddle to the most dominant player in recent time, in the most high-scoring years in recent times.

We have yet to see Nylander become the main driver of his line.

I've seen this said before, and it's another one of those times where I have to ask: "What does this actually entail?" Because as I see it, people apply that haphazardly to whomever they like the most on a line.

 

[Nithoniniel]

This simply isn’t true. There are little to no stats that show Nylander is better than Marner. Marner has done more, with lower quality line mates, at a younger age. I probably wouldn’t take two Nylanders for one Marner...

Here's their two-year stat comparison:

Player	TOI	G	A	P	P1	P/60	P1/60	CF%	Rel CF%	xGF%	Rel xGF%	ZSR
Marner	2130.62	29	44	73	54	2.06	1.52	50.92	0.27	51.11	0.46	54.88
Nylander	2176.42	23	51	74	53	2.04	1.46	51.89	1.57	51.49	1.08	51.23

[TBODY] [/TBODY]
[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Here's another comparison chart:

Here are their even strength scoring comparison:

Player	Points / 60 (Rank)	Primary Points / 60 (Rank)
Nylander	2.4 (31)	1.76 (43)
Marner	2.05 (73)	1.45 (106)

[TBODY] [/TBODY]
[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Marner is a year younger which is absolutely in his favor. I'd argue that he is on a steeper curve too, though I don't think we'd say that if the second PP unit hadn't fallen apart this season. But there's a very good case to be made that they are at the moment very close.

 

[Nithoniniel]

Yes and from Dec onward he was our best player.

And I do not need to stop as it is a fact jack.

This again? That is an opinion, not a fact.

 

[Walshy7]

Lol sorry but you consistently underrate Marner why not admit it you think Nylander is better which is absurd.

Because I don’t think nylander is better, I rate marner exactly where he is, a tier below Matthews. Anyone who thinks he is close to Matthews overrates him imo.

 

[Notsince67]

Because I don’t think nylander is better, I rate marner exactly where he is, a tier below Matthews. Anyone who thinks he is close to Matthews overrates him imo.

guess I over-rate him then

 

[Walshy7]

guess I over-rate him then

Yeah I guess so. No big deal it’s not a crime. Matthews is better at every aspect of hockey except maybe passing even then it’s very close. Anyway no need for a prolonged argument here it’s your opinion and I’ve got mine

 

[Nithoniniel]

Some more info on Nylander and Marner, this would be the frequency and type of passes during even strength.

Marner:
Tableau Public

Nylander:
Tableau Public

Here's the player comparison from above except for two years:
Tableau Public

 

[therealkoho]

I'd offer 6 for 7, no need to offer 5 on a bridge.

with an affordable bridge contract you have another shot at him as an RFA...the future is "right now" as they say

 

[Liminality]

Some more info on Nylander and Marner, this would be the frequency and type of passes during even strength.

Marner:
Tableau Public

Nylander:
Tableau Public

Here's the player comparison from above except for two years:
Tableau Public

Such a good website.

 

[ULF_55]

Even strength is important, especially if you're outscoring the opposition at even strength.

With the departure of van Riemsdyk and Bozak we could see the #1 PP unit starting with Matthews and Nylander on the ice. That's the easiest way to add points to your total.

It will be interesting to see if he ends up at center when they call up the graduating wingers from the Marlies.

 

[Its not your fault]

This thread just reminds me that its summer. Man still can't get over having 3 amazing forwards on the leafs. Way better then having Kessel JVR to look forward to watching.

 

[SniperOnTheWing]

This thread just reminds me that its summer. Man still can't get over having 3 amazing forwards on the leafs. Way better then having Kessel JVR to look forward to watching.

Too bad most of this fanbase is incapable of looking on the bright side, or having patience to let these kids develop. Leafs fans give players the shortest leashes of all and are quick to praise a guy one minute and run him out of town the next. We've got a good thing going here and yes, this team is 100x more interesting to watch then the days when Bozak was our first line center and we had no depth to speak of. I for one appreciate what we have and realize we've got another decade or more to make a lot of good things happen. It's not going to happen overnight.

 

[Notsince67]

Too bad most of this fanbase is incapable of looking on the bright side, or having patience to let these kids develop. Leafs fans give players the shortest leashes of all and are quick to praise a guy one minute and run him out of town the next. We've got a good thing going here and yes, this team is 100x more interesting to watch then the days when Bozak was our first line center and we had no depth to speak of. I for one appreciate what we have and realize we've got another decade or more to make a lot of good things happen. It's not going to happen overnight.

Fans never destroyed the team. They have loyally opened their wallets for decades. I've seen decent teams. I now want a cup. Anyone standing in the way may go. Anyone assisting to achieve this will be gods.

 

[Menzinger]

This simply isn’t true. There are little to no stats that show Nylander is better than Marner. Marner has done more, with lower quality line mates, at a younger age. I probably wouldn’t take two Nylanders for one Marner...

Nylander is the better even strength scorer - and if that 2nd unit PP hadnt been as dysfunctional Nylander could have had 8 or so extra Pp points.

Marner has consistently played with two well established vet scorers - including a 30 goal guy, he wasn’t exact playing with scrubs, not to mention he was on the 1st PP unit. He was also on a line that has been given more sheltered even strength usage - especially during his first season. That’s not to take anything away from Marner, whose been fantastic, but he wasn’t exactly in a disadvantageous position just because he didn’t play with Matthews

The two are neck and neck at the moment - just look at the stats that @Nithoniniel has posted. It’s one thing to like Marner more, that’s fine, it’s another to claim he’s already on another tier (when there’s next to nothing tangible that suggests is the case)

 

[Notsince67]

Nylander is the better even strength scorer - and if that 2nd unit PP hadnt been as dysfunctional Nylander could have had 8 or so extra Pp points.

Marner has consistently played with two well established vet scorers - including a 30 goal guy, he wasn’t exact playing with scrubs, not to mention he was on the 1st PP unit. He was also on a line that has been given more sheltered even strength usage - especially during his first season. That’s not to take anything away from Marner, whose been fantastic, but he wasn’t exactly in a disadvantageous position just because he didn’t play with Matthews

The two are neck and neck at the moment - just look at the stats that @Nithoniniel has posted. It’s one thing to like Marner more, that’s fine, it’s another to claim he’s already on another tier (when there’s next to nothing tangible that suggests is the case)

The separation of skills is already observable looking at progression. You can continue to push this point but it will become embarrassingly apparent to you in the new season that you are wrong...especially if Marner is moved to Matthews line.

Beyond the mental maturation , the physical development is becoming a factor as well. 2 years ago, Willy had faster North South speed that Mitch. The gap has decreased to almost nothing. At ~170lbs, Marner squats 400 lbs parallels. He has amazing pound for pound strength and you can tell he isn't fully grown. His ceiling is so high, I can't see it.

 

[Boutette]

This thread just reminds me that its summer. Man still can't get over having 3 amazing forwards on the leafs. Way better then having Kessel JVR to look forward to watching.

Just wait until next year when Kapanen, Johnsson and maybe Grundstrom get a chance to prove their worth as well