Value of: Willam Nylander trade scenarios

780il

edm
May 29, 2018
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Edmonton AB
We need scoring on the Oilers. Period.

But Nylander sure as hell isn't worth one of Nurse/Klefbom and Larsson isn't worth Nylander. All we could offer are non-Bouchard futures.

TBH I'd much rather have Kapanen, he'd come cheaper in terms of cap hit and acquisition cost, actually plays a 2 way game, kills penalties, and is the same age. 2 2nds for Kappy? Maybe throw in a prospect like Bear?
 

Martin Skoula

Registered User
Oct 18, 2017
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We need scoring on the Oilers. Period.

But Nylander sure as hell isn't worth one of Nurse/Klefbom and Larsson isn't worth Nylander. All we could offer are non-Bouchard futures.

TBH I'd much rather have Kapanen, he'd come cheaper in terms of cap hit and acquisition cost, actually plays a 2 way game, kills penalties, and is the same age. 2 2nds for Kappy? Maybe throw in a prospect like Bear?


Why would we consider 2 2nds for Kapanen for even a second? He's a first round pick that has done nothing but improve his value every year.
 

Brian McDavid

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Aug 4, 2017
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I have a hard time judging offer-sheets in general but out of curiosity, what kind of offer-sheet goes unmatched for Kap and Johnsson? 4*4 range? Similar for both players?
 

63 others

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Mar 3, 2018
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With the way he has now competed in multiple playoffs as a perimiter skilled winger I cant see him having much trade value until proven otherwise. If he didnt have that albatross of a contract maybe he would have some value but no one is hitching their wagon to this player with that kind of salary commitment.



Lol What?! Big plus coming from the leafs here and they make out like bandits, Ellis is exactly what the leafs need.
Ellis was not good this season. Picking up points beside josi and has quite the aav. I think you overrate his trade value
 

780il

edm
May 29, 2018
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Edmonton AB
And the Oilers are the only team willing and able to help us out by giving us half the market value that Kapanen would normally get if any team was allowed to trade for him.
What do you expect in return for him? A high 2nd + another 2nd + good prospect seems fair
 

Martin Skoula

Registered User
Oct 18, 2017
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What do you expect in return for him? A high 2nd + another 2nd + good prospect seems fair

It makes no sense to move him unless it's for a top-4 RHD. 2 non-1st picks and a nothing prospect is absolutely useless for us next year.

If we needed to liquidate him for futures to spend on an RHD, we'd get a 1st easily, likely in the teens.
 
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bert

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Nov 11, 2002
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Ellis was not good this season. Picking up points beside josi and has quite the aav. I think you overrate his trade value

Watched him for years, he gets the job done in every facet in every situation its not about points he is a two way defenseman.
 

780il

edm
May 29, 2018
12,622
14,463
Edmonton AB
It makes no sense to move him unless it's for a top-4 RHD. 2 non-1st picks and a nothing prospect is absolutely useless for us next year.

If we needed to liquidate him for futures to spend on an RHD, we'd get a 1st easily, likely in the teens.
You wouldn't get a top4d for him, well not one under the age of 30. Also probably wouldn't get a 1st in the teens. Jmo
 

ER89

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Jul 25, 2018
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So let me roleplay as the GM of the Montreal Canadiens.

I call up Dubas, and I offer him Man Mountain at 7m (857k retained), Paul Byron (3.4m) and Andrew Shaw (3.9m) as well as our 15th overall pick, and our 2020 2nd

In return, we take Nylander (7m), Kadri (4.5m), Zaitsev (4.5m) and the last year of the Horton (5.3m) deal.

The Leafs free up 7m in cap space, while improving defensively. They resign Marner, and have cap space to look at another player if they really wanted to (Panarin or Skinner to improve the left side, maybe?)

Hyman/Tavares/Marner
Johnsson/Matthews/Kapanen
Marleau/Shaw/Byron (look at Shaw's faceoff % since coming to Montreal if you need any evidence he can play the position)
Moore/Gauthier/Brown

Rielly/Weber
Dermott/Muzzin
Sandin/Liljegren

If Leafs aren't interested; I'd just offer sheet Marner 13 x 7 and see what happens.
Nothing, cus marner would use that contract as TP
 

Martin Skoula

Registered User
Oct 18, 2017
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You don't have the cap space for another 4m dollar + dman. Clearing cap is the primary reason to moving Kapanen.

That's my point, Kapanen is roughly equal in raw value to the package that got us Muzzin who is a top pairing quality D. Kapanen can get a top-4 on his own if that's the way we choose to go.
 
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Weltschmerz

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Apr 22, 2007
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That's my point, Kapanen is roughly equal in raw value to the package that got us Muzzin who is a top pairing quality D. Kapanen can get a top-4 on his own if that's the way we choose to go.

So you have no room to sign Kapanen so you trade him for a top 4 defenseman who you have no room for either, that's your point?
 

63 others

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Mar 3, 2018
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Watched him for years, he gets the job done in every facet in every situation its not about points he is a two way defenseman.
Yeah, i like him too. One of the most underrated players for years. This season, his play dropped significally though
 

Djp

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Jul 28, 2012
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Alexandria, VA
I have a hard time judging offer-sheets in general but out of curiosity, what kind of offer-sheet goes unmatched for Kap and Johnsson? 4*4 range? Similar for both players?

havent released the offersheet number ranges for the 2019 offseason.

the ideal amount is max amount allowed to only cost a 2nd round pick. the length is only 2-4 yrs making them a UFA at the end of the term meaning if Toronto matches they could be free agents

I think the dollar amount will be on the low $4M range
 
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bernmeister

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Jun 11, 2010
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I think our cap problems are sometimes underestimated. I'm not seeing a way of signing Marner + Johnsson + Kapanen unless there are some serious cuts made elsewhere.

The Leafs can sign all their RFAs the summer. It's just they won't be able to retain everyone. If Marleau stays, I figure it's about 7m in cap space this has to move. And as you suggest, I think it's Nylander that goes. Leafs have wingers to take his place. Trades aren't easy when no money is returned....so the trade would be pick/prospects. IMO the return is going to very low.....maybe a second rounder would be the best offer. But that's part of the cost of having high priced "stars" and also signing Tavares for free.
PS. It is no really cap hell when you are able to trade players and be cap compliant. Cap hell is when you have give up big sweetener in a trade, having to buyout players or have lot of retained money on traded players.....that's cap hell.

Because we would not part with what you would want. And this UFA summer for forwards is gonna be absolutely bonkers.

Duchene, Panarin, Dzingel, Stone, Skinner, Eberle etc

Along with old Rangers players like Zuccarello, Hayes, Hagelin and Brassard that could possibly bring some dept alongside leadership.

Even as a fellow Swede, i dont think William is worth his contract, and i would not like if Rangers parted with any future picks or prospects.

If you grab Mark Staal, Brendan Smith and Belesky i would consider it.
nope.

=================
1. Two w/Toronto
A.
Staal, 5.7 [50% retained] x 2 = 2.85 for Marleau, 6.25 expiring
instant cap relief for Leafs w/Staal able to be bought out cheap
trade him at half and cap hit is minuscule 1.425
Rangers can hold onto Marleau as a useful stopgap, or if he prefers, deal him as an expiring rental
cap dif is min 6.25 - 2.85 = 3.4 instant minimal relief to Leafs, with options for more cap savings

B.
Georgiev .7925m expiring elc + Namest 4.0 at half retained = 2m expiring + Strome 3.1 expiring + Rangers 2019 early 2nd
total cap is ballpark 6.8925+
for
Nylander 6.9 +Liljigren, elc .894,166 = 7.794,166
this is another ballpark 1m cap savings
total cap relief to TOR both deals = 3.4 instant + 1 = 4.4m immediate cap savings
with more cap recovery possible depending on if/when/how Staal moved/bought out, etc.

Analysis:
Leafs might get lucky, but do not seem to have enough netminder quality to win it all. Georgiev totally stoned them, has emerged, and on an elc, so he is cost controlled for the immediate future. If all things were equal, Rangers, making room for Shesty to join Hank, should deal him out of conference. Thus, Leafs have to step up with return. Stopgaps are Strome (finally found game with NYR) and Namest (overpriced at 4 but nice for depth at 2). Early Ranger 2nd get TOR a pick w/in top 40. A huge consideration, obviously, is the cap space needed to make Marner a happy camper; this deal achieves that, Leafs effectively repurpose star quality F into need area G, with some depth; prospect Liljigren a throw in.
Rangers repurpose depth for righty F add.
 

Boondock

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Feb 6, 2009
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[QUOTE="IGGY2JOHNNY, post: 159783779, member: 302093" I think if the leafs want to resign all 3 of Marner , Johnsson , Kapanen then Nylander is the odd man out.

The leafs would no doubt try to get back defense in any deal to replace Gardiner and such.

Opinions ?? What else do the leafs do to get out of cap hell and resign Marner and company for next season ?

I think our cap problems are sometimes underestimated. I'm not seeing a way of signing Marner + Johnsson + Kapanen unless there are some serious cuts made elsewhere.


Toronto Maple Leafs - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

We have 19 players under contract with only $7.2 m of cap space to work with (assumes $83 m cap). I'll add the LTIR Horton of $5.3 m to give us a total of $12.5 m to play with.

What is not included in the above are the RFAs and UFAs that we have.

UFAs - Gardiner & Hainsey are the significant UFAs. I'm assuming that Marincin, Hutchinson & Ennis will be let go.
RFAs - Marner, Johnsson, Ozhiganov, Kapanen

If we sign Marner at let's say $10 m, that gives us $2.5 m to sign a defender. Could be Hainsey if he's willing to take a $500k pay cut, or another UFA defender at $2.5 m/year.

All of the rest (players identified in blue font) would have to exit, and we would play with a 21 man roster versus the more customary 23 players.[/QUOTE]
The danger of fielding a 21 player roster is that you have zero flexibility in case of an injury, suspension or personal leave. The Leafs will need to make a few deals to put their team together next year, but that's the price of having a really good team. See Chicago and all the talent they moved out during their hay-day.
 

Martin Skoula

Registered User
Oct 18, 2017
11,821
16,661
So you have no room to sign Kapanen so you trade him for a top 4 defenseman who you have no room for either, that's your point?

How do we not have room for Kapanen? We can't do Kapanen + a top 4 defenseman, but we can certainly do one of those.
 

Ricky Bobby

Registered User
Aug 31, 2008
8,457
312
Nylander had his contract heavily front loaded and therefore the teams that will value him the most are teams that have an internal budget.

After he collects his 8.3. M signing bonus on July 1st, he will be owed 24.7 for 5 seasons.

Nylander at under 5M in real dollars per season has a ton of value to teams to internal budget teams like the Canes, Devils, Avs or Coyotes and are all teams that he'd fill a big hole for.
 

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