Will Ovechkin beat Gretzky in all-time goals?

[The Zetterberg Era]

I think there is little to no chance he ever leaves Washington to play hockey.

He is now a God in Washington Sports History.

I don't think you quite understand what he means to Russian hockey either in this statement.

 

[Fazkovsky]

#625 tonight ties him with Iginla and Sakic for 15th all time.

It took Iginla 527 more games and Sakic 351 more games to hit the 625 goal mark.

Man thats crazy

 

[filinski77]

I'll say no to OPs question because I think he heads to the KHL in a couple of years… I have doubts he finishes his contract. It just seems that the great Russians like returning home for a few seasons while they can still play at a high level.

Federov stayed in the NHL until he was 39
Mogilny stayed until 36 (Didn't go back to KHL)
Kovalev stayed until 39
Datsyuk stayed until 37
Kozlov until 37

Ovi is only gonna be 35 by the end of his contract, and will more than likely still be extremely impactful in the NHL at that point, why would he leave? The whole stigma around some of the Russian players seems like a lazy excuse to say that he can't break the record.

 

[The Zetterberg Era]

Even then it would be tough.

Right now he needs 270 goals to catch Wayne and maybe he score 35 more this year.

Next year he would be turning 34 and would need about 235 more goals.

Only 11 players have scored 40 or more goals (the pave AO would need for 6 straight years) over the age of 33 all time.

Only 1 player Selanne has down it more than once.

Player Season Finder | Hockey-Reference.com

The most goals anyone has scored past the age of 33 is 250 by Johnny Bucyk, who played in a higher scoring era and 2nd was Howe who played a little longer than most folks do at 230.

3rd is Jean Ratelle, who also played in a much more favorable climate with 196.

I used to think that AO might hang on and really try to beats Wayne's record but I think it would end embarrassingly as everyone ages.

Yes but he enters this whole discussion as the best goal scorer we have seen to date entering this phase. He is looking like a Selanne in terms of he isn't aging a whole lot and even his half a step loss had elite skating and acceleration to begin with so he is still very fast like most players that have aged well.

Ovie is a break the mold player and a physical marvel really in the way he has often played the game. He hasn't broken down doing so yet, that is really my fear for him as your eluding to with other players falling off, but to date he still isn't slowing really at all in terms of a goal scorer. He remains a guy that scores from the same areas where nobody has an answer still. It isn't like we don't know how Ovechkin is going to score either, so until that starts to fade in terms of the one-timer and for instance that was the last thing that left Brett Hull in my opinion he has a chance at this.

 

[wetcoast]

Yes but he enters this whole discussion as the best goal scorer we have seen to date entering this phase. He is looking like a Selanne in terms of he isn't aging a whole lot and even his half a step loss had elite skating and acceleration to begin with so he is still very fast like most players that have aged well.

Ovie is a break the mold player and a physical marvel really in the way he has often played the game. He hasn't broken down doing so yet, that is really my fear for him as your eluding to with other players falling off, but to date he still isn't slowing really at all in terms of a goal scorer. He remains a guy that scores from the same areas where nobody has an answer still. It isn't like we don't know how Ovechkin is going to score either, so until that starts to fade in terms of the one-timer and for instance that was the last thing that left Brett Hull in my opinion he has a chance at this.

Fair enough those are excellent points and I hope that he gets there.

Would be super exciting in the actual world, plus spark off about 100 new threads a week on how he is better than Sid.

BTW, what is that creature in your avatar?

 

[Lazlo Hollyfeld]

Scary this is that he'd be closing in on 700 goals right about now without the lockout and strike shortened seasons.

There was no strike shortened season in Ovie's career. Just the lockouts.

And he won't make it in part because of those lockouts and the impending one.

 

[The Zetterberg Era]

Fair enough those are excellent points and I hope that he gets there.

Would be super exciting in the actual world, plus spark off about 100 new threads a week on how he is better than Sid.

BTW, what is that creature in your avatar?

Pufferfish.

 

[The Zetterberg Era]

There was no strike shortened season in Ovie's career. Just the lockouts.

And he won't make it in part because of those lockouts and the impending one.

That is true, we really need labor peace for this to matter at all because he cannot miss more significant time. It's still doable right now, but something like that could throw it in the ditch in a hurry.

 

[KevinRedkey]

Goals past the age of the season where they turned 33:
Brett Hull: 214
Jagr: 229
Selanne: 272
Messier: 242
Recchi: 230

The most goals scored by age (modern era):
Age 33: Jagr - 54
Age 34: Messier - 47
Age 35: Selanne - 40
Age 36: Selanne - 48
Age 37: Sakic - 36
Age 38: Hull - 37
Age 39: Doan - 28
Age 40: Selanne - 31
Total: 321

Ovie needed 287, and he already has 18... so 269 to go. No one has ever done that in the modern era, and those who came close played until they were 43+

I'd say there's a very very slim chance he passes Gretzky, but he might pass Howe to become 2nd all time.

 

[wetcoast]

Goals past the age of the season where they turned 33:
Brett Hull: 214
Jagr: 229
Selanne: 272
Messier: 242
Recchi: 230

The most goals scored by age (modern era):
Age 33: Jagr - 54
Age 34: Messier - 47
Age 35: Selanne - 40
Age 36: Selanne - 48
Age 37: Sakic - 36
Age 38: Hull - 37
Age 39: Doan - 28
Age 40: Selanne - 31
Total: 321

Ovie needed 287, and he already has 18... so 269 to go. No one has ever done that in the modern era, and those who came close played until they were 43+

I'd say there's a very very slim chance he passes Gretzky, but he might pass Howe to become 2nd all time.

Good post and realized that my link upthread had a mistake when I searched.

 

[ryan callahan]

Goals past the age of the season where they turned 33:
Brett Hull: 214
Jagr: 229
Selanne: 272
Messier: 242
Recchi: 230

The most goals scored by age (modern era):
Age 33: Jagr - 54
Age 34: Messier - 47
Age 35: Selanne - 40
Age 36: Selanne - 48
Age 37: Sakic - 36
Age 38: Hull - 37
Age 39: Doan - 28
Age 40: Selanne - 31
Total: 321

Ovie needed 287, and he already has 18... so 269 to go. No one has ever done that in the modern era, and those who came close played until they were 43+

I'd say there's a very very slim chance he passes Gretzky, but he might pass Howe to become 2nd all time.

Ovechkin is easily the goat goalscorer. He has shown no signs of slowing down in the past few years so why should we predict a decline.

 

[blankall]

Goals past the age of the season where they turned 33:
Brett Hull: 214
Jagr: 229
Selanne: 272
Messier: 242
Recchi: 230

The most goals scored by age (modern era):
Age 33: Jagr - 54
Age 34: Messier - 47
Age 35: Selanne - 40
Age 36: Selanne - 48
Age 37: Sakic - 36
Age 38: Hull - 37
Age 39: Doan - 28
Age 40: Selanne - 31
Total: 321

Ovie needed 287, and he already has 18... so 269 to go. No one has ever done that in the modern era, and those who came close played until they were 43+

I'd say there's a very very slim chance he passes Gretzky, but he might pass Howe to become 2nd all time.

Part of being the best ever means doing something no one else has done.

If Ovie gets 50+ this season and next, he's got a chance to beat Gretzky.

 

[DapperCam]

If he wins the Rocket this year, he’s the GOAT goal scorer even if he doesn’t break the career record.

 

[DrDangles]

Dunno if it's been mentioned, but the only player with more career goals and less games played is Mario with 690.

Whether or not he touches Gretzkys record doesn't mean we're not witnessing amazing hockey history.

 

[Khrox]

Depending on the next CBA, Ovi has a chance. Ovi reminds me a lot of LeBron in his staying power. The guy is a beast, and is definitely one of the top in the sport, both in the modern era, and all time.


If there is no lockout from CBA (or if it's less than 20 games), and Ovi plays until around 40-43, I could see him passing Gretz goal record. At the very least, I see him finishing 3rd. I don't think he bolts to the KHL after his contract, I could see him staying in Washington until he retires.

 

[Vancouver Canucks]

He has a chance.

 

[MikeyMike01]

Yes 100%
And that should make him the greatest of all time, no one thought Gretzky’s records would ever be broken

I don’t think anyone thinks the goal record is untouchable.

Call me when someone scores over 200 points in a season.

 

[Holtbyisms]

He's on pace for 60 lol. No reason he can't continue to do this for a couple more season after this one. He's a freak of nature physically. Then he can coast at 30ish a year for awhile and make it happen. I don't see any reason why he can't do it. He's also the type of person who's highly motivated to break records. Think back to the seasons where he was entering the last game or two on the cusp of 50 goals. He pushed extremely hard because it's a challenge for him. He does well with goals and I'd be shocked if he's not looking at 99's goal record and planning on going after it before he retires.

 

[gtrower]

He's on pace for 60 lol. No reason he can't continue to do this for a couple more season after this one. He's a freak of nature physically. Then he can coast at 30ish a year for awhile and make it happen. I don't see any reason why he can't do it. He's also the type of person who's highly motivated to break records. Think back to the seasons where he was entering the last game or two on the cusp of 50 goals. He pushed extremely hard because it's a challenge for him. He does well with goals and I'd be shocked if he's not looking at 99's goal record and planning on going after it before he retires.

Devils robbed him in the season finale last year. Sitting at 49 and they refuse to pull their goalie while trailing in the final minutes.

 

[SeanConn]

Assuming scoring is going up, there's absolutely no reason to expect Ovi to slow down to the point where he doesn't have a chance to break Gretzky goal scoring record. Let's assume scoring is going up, and stays up for a while... or continues upwards for the next 10+ years... Ovi should have a real chance to absolutely SMASH Gretzky's career goal totals, despite possibly facing 3 lockouts...

Let's say Ovi does in fact score 60 this season, and that he ends up playing until age 43, (like Selanne did) . Perhaps he won't play this long if he's able to pass Gretzky, but maybe he really would want to chase 1000+ goals. I see no reason to predict a sudden drop off from his current totals to sub 45, sub 40... not quite yet, and even from there, I think we see him stay closer to 40 at age 40, but for the purposes of slowing his decline, I went with these numbers...

If I had to place a bet on it, I'd at least bet on him passing Wayner... now passing 1000 goals, that's a whole other story... but I truly think we'll see Ovechkin pass Gretzky, barring any career altering injuries or multiple lockouts.

Age:G's
33:60
34: 55
35: 50
36:45
37: 40
38: 40
39: 35
40: 35
41: 30
42: 30
43: 26

1053 career goals. It's not exactly impossible!

 

[Laveuglette]

Scoring has gone up so who knows. Seems more and more likely. Still unlikely, I would bet against it, but not as unlikely as it was before.

 

[Ovechkins Wodka]

Also look at Tom Brady he's 41. Atheltes take better care of themselves and last much longer. He can easily play as long as he wants to in the NHL.

 

[BallardEra]

#626

If he finishes anywhere in the 800's for career goals it will be an insane accomplishment.

 

[BallardEra]

“Only” 265 more goals to tie Gretzky.

 

[Madifer]

After the end of his current contract one of the following happens:

- He goes back to Russia to play in the KHL. This is highly unlikely. Although theres one man in Russia who can try to force OV to pursue this path.

- He signs another contract in the NHL. I can totally imagine WSH easily giving him a 4-5 year deal with a reasonable cap hit. This is imo the most likely scenario. In this scenario OV has a legitimate chance to approach Gretzky.

- Last and hopefully unlikely scenario: OV ends his carreer at the end of this contract either to pursue other things or due to an injury.