Will Ovechkin beat Gretzky in all-time goals?

[vippe]

and he STILL needs 272 more and he will be 34 before next season.

Stop it, use logic

Guy is still better than most players at the league, 33 years old or not. He's also the best goalscorer at the league aged 33. He's not your average nhler in terms of goalscoring.

8 players in history managed to score over 200 goals after they turned 33 so for Ovechkin to get another 72 on top of that is far from ridiculous. It might not happen, but ridicolous? please..

 

[beowulf]

Not impossible but I don't think he will make it. He will likely end up in the low to mid 800s.

 

[Chimaera]

I mean, if he wanted to play until 42-43, yeah, he probably can do it. The big if hanging over has always been health, and all of this is contingent on that.

But I don't think he has any desire to play that long. He has always mentioned he would like to end his time in Russia, and that he wouldn't be one to hang around forever.

that said, if he's still highly productive, and his growing family is comfortable here, I think he might stick around. It also helps that the Caps are decent and have players around him he likes playing with. If that changed, it might make a difference.

Doing the math, if you figure he needs 272, that's a ton of goals still left.

He got 49 last year, but only 33 the year before. I think it's reasonable to consider him getting 40 this year without much debate. It might go up, it might go down. I think having talent on the Caps hurt for a bit actually means he has to press a bit more in the regular season, which could mean a higher output, but that's still an if.

I think it's reasonable to expect 40 for this year and probably next.

If that puts him at (272-25 [remainder of this year]-40 [next]=207) at 207, but at 35/36, that means he would need to have six more seasons of 35+ goals. I don't think that's unreasonable, but that's tough to think you'll see him still here at that point. Note, my math might be a bit off, because it's not completely my thing, but it's possible, not probable. What would make it way more likely is if he was somehow able to get 50 or very close in the next two or three seasons. If he did 3 years of 45-50 (this year and the subsequent 2), he would be within shooting distance of needing around ~ 140 in 5 or so seasons from 36-40ish. That would be much more likely.

I mean, with his shot, and his size, he can certainly get 30-35 goals in a season for as long as he wants, and as long as the PP works. Playing with Kuznetsov should add to his totals. He does need to do more of the post up in front of the net and smash rebounds/deflections during regular play, but I think you'll see that.

The question is still a matter of does he want to go for it?


One side note, it is quite ridiculous that we're talking about a player having a shot at that record. I don't think we will see that anytime again in our lifetimes, unless goal scoring goes up dramatically.

 

[Patmac40]

Depends how long he can play for of course.

I think he can keep up around a 50 goal pace for at least a few more seasons. He needs 272 to reach it as of today. He can probably hit 50 this year and likely each year until the lockout which will bring him to around 800 or so goals. Then it'll be a matter of how he looks post-lockout and if he can put together two or three more good years which don't need to be 50 goal years. I think he can do it.

 

[gtrower]

He needs to show signs of not being able to put up 50 before I doubt his ability to put up 900. On pace for 61 right now.

Biggest thing in his favor might be the emergence on Kuznetsov - the de facto #1 center moving forward (and Russian to boot). Caps look like they have developed a good enough post-core core with Kuzy/Holtby/Carlson/Oshie/Orlov to be competitive for a number of years. And it’s not like Ovi/Backstrom are really falling off production-wise.

 

[RageQuit77]

If someone can, Its OV.

OV can also start hug more oncoming junior goalies for an extra assurance that will likely happen. (Yes, the act was high class! Don't call me for that.)

43-45 yo Grand Master playing 3rd line minutes in a bottom 10 expansion team hanging around his typical spot in the PP-office, lacking 5 more Goals when playing last 10 games of his 6th 'one more year' deal...

Do you know what would happen? Grand master would play every damn PP minutes, and every goalie (some 2 decades younger than he is) would gladly take some reduction to their SV% of that game only for the respect of the deed and the legend, particularly then when if OV's expansion project would be trailing few goals in that game only few minutes remaining.

Such is the power of a hug from The Grand Master of Hockey Goal Scoring.

 

[PuckItUp27]

I sure hope so!

 

[16thOverallSaveUs]

I think it’s definately plausible that Ovechkin breaks Gretzky’s record. However, I don’t think he will. Regardless of if he hits the mark or not, Ovi will cement himself as the greatest goal scorer in nhl history and I think he knows that. I don’t see him playing until he’s 43 just to break Gretzky’s record. Although if he did that would be some feat considering goal scoring was way up in Gretzky’s era.

 

[abo9]

Depends how long he can play for of course.

I think he can keep up around a 50 goal pace for at least a few more seasons. He needs 272 to reach it as of today. He can probably hit 50 this year and likely each year until the lockout which will bring him to around 800 or so goals. Then it'll be a matter of how he looks post-lockout and if he can put together two or three more good years which don't need to be 50 goal years. I think he can do it.

Its crazy to think Ovy could go through 3 lockouts and beat Gretzky in goals (losing 2 and a half season).

 

[Conspiracy Theorist]

Caps look like they will be contenders for the foreseeable future so maybe he will stick around for over 5 years.

 

[pezpunk]

i'm a huge Ovechkin fan and i believe he's already pretty clearly the greatest goal scorer in NHL history, considering the low scoring era he's played in, and the fact he's missed 1.5 seasons to lockout.

i'd put his chances of beating Gretzky's record well below 50/50, though. i just doubt he wants to play into his forties. those lockout seasons may well end up being be the difference.

 

[Dondini]

50 goals this year and 50 next year would make things interesting. However I just think he needs to hit 802 goals to become the greatest goal scorer of all time and that’s defintely within his sights.

 

[feffan]

Plausiable, not probable. He´s been ridicilous injury free and is an athletic freak, so if that continues and he wants to continue it´s possible. He also have a few years left of a prime Backstrom and to that a Kuznetsov who just entered his prime. Good surrounding for when he has eventually down periods.

He´s had the to me best prime of a goal scorer. On that only Bobby Hull can challenge him, but to me Ovechkin is ahead as of the few last seasons.
Peak is still Gretkzkys with his ridicilous 81/82-84/85. And no, not everyone and their grandma was scoring at thoose paces back then. Bossy, recognised as a top 10 goal scorer as well and as I see it just behind Ovechkin on season v.s. season basis, for example had 64 goals when Gretzky had 92. When Gretzky had 87G in 74GP, the next player had 56. Gretzkys peak
And as I see it, Lemieux had a few more impressive individual goal scoring seasons as well.

So to me the term "Best Goalscorer" is to broad to answer. For peak, season, PO:s and one game, it´s still Gretzky for me. And I have a hard time seeing a Ovechking piling up goals and passing him changes that. Or Lemieux for that mather. Even if Ovechking 07/08-08/09 sure is up there and have their arguments. In thoose seasons he had that magical sence of "I score when I want to...". An aure Gretzky and Lemieux as well had - but they had that aura for longer. Even if not as long steady prime as Ovechking.
Ovechkin will if he continues cement his to me already status as the greatest and longest prime ever for a goal scorer. And I have a hard time seeing anyone during my lifetime achieving what he has done if he succeeds.

 

[FinnWin]

Looking at his current form and taking into consideration that there's not a great threat for a career ending injury as Tom Wilson is signed long term to his own team - I'd say there's a chance.

 

[Absolut]

I can't imagine it happening, but it's certainly not impossible.

 

[Bertuzzzi44]

Playing in this era and putting up these numbers is insane. When you factor in era adjusted goal scoring he’s already number 1. Ovechkin > Hull’s, Lemieux, Gretzky, Bossy as the greatest goal scorer of all time.

 

[bigbabybuda]

If he decides to play until he is 40 and doesn't have a big injury he will break the record. There is no reason to believe he won't be the best goal scorer of all time after the age of 33 as he was the best before that age.

 

[BallardEra]

Maybe it’s possible that that he does play into his 40s so that his kids get to watch him play and are at an age where they remember it.

Then again, this could also happen in the KHL.

 

[mrv52]

Looking at his current form and taking into consideration that there's not a great threat for a career ending injury as Tom Wilson is signed long term to his own team - I'd say there's a chance.

Agreed. Wilson's slap pass setting up Ovies first goal last night was pretty good.

 

[truthbluth]

No, but relative to the league, Ovechkin is the greatest goal scorer in NHL history.

 

[Duffalufagus]

He's not scoring 40 goals at age 38-40...

 

[txpd]

He's not scoring 40 goals at age 38-40...

Doesn't need to. If he plays thru his 40 year old season, he has 8 seasons. That's not hard to imagine.

He started this season at 607. He needs 293 to make 900. He is showing that he could make 50 this season. 243. For the next 7 seasons he needs to average 34.7 goals per season. If you figure he does 40s for years 34 and 35, he's at 163 with the minimum 80. That's an average of 32 over his final 5.

Its not a cake walk, but he would not need anything like 40 goals from 38 to 40.

 

[Thenameless]

He's been fantastic the last two years, but I worry about any player in their mid to late 30's hitting a wall, when even 20+ goals starts to become a struggle, and trying for more than that starts to cost the team in wins.

 

[Tavares to Marner]

He's already better of a goal scorer

 

[txpd]

He's been fantastic the last two years, but I worry about any player in their mid to late 30's hitting a wall, when even 20+ goals starts to become a struggle, and trying for more than that starts to cost the team in wins.

As a Caps fan I took a quick look at Peter Bondra. He was 36 when dealt to Ottawa at the trade deadline and leading the NHL in PPG's. He scored 21 goals in 60 games for Atlanta at 38.