Will Ovechkin beat Gretzky in all-time goals?

Status
Not open for further replies.

OppositeLocK

Registered User
Nov 18, 2017
1,587
2,097
Why not though? If he plays until he's 40, that's about 550 more games. He'd need to score 0.50 goals a game.

He's consistently been scoring over 0.60...
 

OppositeLocK

Registered User
Nov 18, 2017
1,587
2,097
I dunno guys, with the NHL already as soft as it is, and only getting softer, I see his longevity increasing ten-fold. He has no injury concerns.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Riseonfire

RageQuit77

Registered User
Jan 5, 2016
5,200
3,724
Finland, Kotka
If someone can its Ovi. I wouldn't write off even another 60+ season yet, and by measures of pure endurance and staying power, there are very few guys can compete with him. Sure there will be some kind decline coming sooner or later if he continue to play, but with Ovi I tend to think - later.

I predict some 800-850 G. Which would put him far above Gretzky and Hove in the art goal scoring, considering goal scoring environment and eras.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Hippasus

Artorius Horus T

sincerety
Nov 12, 2014
19,133
11,839
Suomi/Finland
Hell no! Can't do it if/when you are not playing. I'm guessing he retires from the NHL when his contract ends in 20-21 and goes back to Russia.As a Russian player, he has already had a surprisingly long NHL career.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Capitals40

BertCorbeau

F*ck cancer - RIP Fugu and Buffaloed
Jan 6, 2012
55,037
35,304
Simcoe County
I think he does.

He would need to average 40 goals per year (including this season) to age 40 to do it. Lofty, but not totally unrealistic considering he averages 49 goals per 82 games.

Now there's the supposed pending decline as he ages, which could happen but I get the vibe from him that he's this unique elite athlete that will remain productive even as he ages into his late 30's
 
  • Like
Reactions: egelband

OppositeLocK

Registered User
Nov 18, 2017
1,587
2,097
I think he does.

He would need to average 40 goals per year (including this season) to age 40 to do it. Lofty, but not totally unrealistic considering he averages 49 goals per 82 games.

Now there's the supposed pending decline as he ages, which could happen but I get the vibe from him that he's this unique elite athlete that will remain productive even as he ages into his late 30's

I could even see him pulling a Selanne or Chelios and playing into this 40's. I think he's the type of guy where if he's close to being #1 all-time in NHL goals, he'll stick around just to get it.
 

Habaneros

Habs Cup champs 2010
Oct 31, 2011
16,456
6,835
If he wants to play into his 40s i think he got a legit shot of breaking 894.....

33 yrs 49 goals
34 yrs ..40 goals
35yrs 35 goals
36yrs 30 goals
37yrs 30 goals
38 yrs 25 goals
39 yr 25 goals
40 yrs 20 goals
41 yrs 20 goals...
42 yrs 15 goals
43 yrs old 10 goals
---------

Would give Ovy8 a total of 906 career reg season goals...
 

The Panther

Registered User
Mar 25, 2014
19,114
15,573
Tokyo, Japan
The most amazing thing about Ovechkin -- besides his goal productivity, that is -- is his resistance to injury. Only once in 13+ years has he even missed more than 4 games in a season. (Seven times he's missed one or no games.)

It's not so surprising in recent years. He's older now and lets teammates do more of the 'heavy lifting', by which I mean he doesn't do a great deal of the hard-digging and driving the net one against three, and he more so waits for passes to come to him in order to shoot. That's all normal when a star player reaches a certain age.

But what's amazing is how resilient he was when he was younger. He was a wrecking ball and yet never seemed to get hurt.

Regarding the all-time goals record, what's working in his favor is some changes in the NHL. The game is just a lot softer now than almost any time in the past, which will extend the careers of some players (not that he seems to need 'soft' as I've described above, but at least he doesn't have to worry about Chelios, Pronger, or Matt Cook head-hunting him now).

His record of resistance to injury certainly provides a stark contrast to Crosby in his 20s, despite the NHL getting less and less physical through that period.

I still don't think Ovechkin has much hope of scoring another 276-or-whatever goals, though. That's a heck of a lot of goals past age 33. In the past 40 years, six players have scored 200+ goals from about age 33 onward (Selanne, Jagr, Messier, Brett Hell, Alfredsson, Recchi), but none in these 40 years have scored as many as Ovechkin would need (Selanne scored about 248 past age 33).

However, Gordie Howe did score about 332 goals past age 33 ,and that with six seasons lost to the WHA. Bobby Hull (who is Ovechkin's closest historical comparable) was sitting at 604 NHL goals by age 33 when he defected for the WHA. So, he was almost exactly at where Ovechkin is now in career totals, at the same age. Hull continued scoring at a furious rate in the WHA (including a 77-goal season!), but was pretty old when he came back for one last try in the big League in 1979-80, scoring 6 goals in 27 games before calling it a career.

I guess if Ovechkin ages as well as Howe did (or maybe as well as Hull, though it's debatable), he can possibly do it. That's a pretty steep slope, though, with maybe two or three goal-scorers in history aging that well.

Pessimistically, I can't help but think that Ovechkin is kind of overdue for some sort of semi-serious injury. It's almost other-worldly how he's managed to avoid it.

But it's exciting that we can even have this conversation!
 

Kalamazoo Wings

Registered User
May 4, 2010
3,212
592
Knee Deep
It would be cool to see him do it and given his passion for the game I could see him sticking long enough to do it. And his frame would seem durable enough to help matters.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Krautso

RageQuit77

Registered User
Jan 5, 2016
5,200
3,724
Finland, Kotka
If you make one hour long youtube video about OV's scoring, currently you would've on average little bit more than 5.8 seconds to reel each of his regular season goal.

If playoffs goals are included too, you have now some 5.3 secs per goal.

If he makes it to 900, then you would have 4 secs/G.
 

Sun God Nika

Palestine <3.
Apr 22, 2013
19,861
8,246
if theres another lockout no chance, but if he plays into his 40's he has better odds than some are giving him. You know the caps will give ovechkin 1 yr contract as long as keeps asking for them otherwise it would be franchise suicide.
 
  • Like
Reactions: grentthealien

OppositeLocK

Registered User
Nov 18, 2017
1,587
2,097
The most amazing thing about Ovechkin -- besides his goal productivity, that is -- is his resistance to injury. Only once in 13+ years has he even missed more than 4 games in a season. (Seven times he's missed one or no games.)

It's not so surprising in recent years. He's older now and lets teammates do more of the 'heavy lifting', by which I mean he doesn't do a great deal of the hard-digging and driving the net one against three, and he more so waits for passes to come to him in order to shoot. That's all normal when a star player reaches a certain age.

But what's amazing is how resilient he was when he was younger. He was a wrecking ball and yet never seemed to get hurt.

Regarding the all-time goals record, what's working in his favor is some changes in the NHL. The game is just a lot softer now than almost any time in the past, which will extend the careers of some players (not that he seems to need 'soft' as I've described above, but at least he doesn't have to worry about Chelios, Pronger, or Matt Cook head-hunting him now).

His record of resistance to injury certainly provides a stark contrast to Crosby in his 20s, despite the NHL getting less and less physical through that period.

I still don't think Ovechkin has much hope of scoring another 276-or-whatever goals, though. That's a heck of a lot of goals past age 33. In the past 40 years, six players have scored 200+ goals from about age 33 onward (Selanne, Jagr, Messier, Brett Hell, Alfredsson, Recchi), but none in these 40 years have scored as many as Ovechkin would need (Selanne scored about 248 past age 33).

However, Gordie Howe did score about 332 goals past age 33 ,and that with six seasons lost to the WHA. Bobby Hull (who is Ovechkin's closest historical comparable) was sitting at 604 NHL goals by age 33 when he defected for the WHA. So, he was almost exactly at where Ovechkin is now in career totals, at the same age. Hull continued scoring at a furious rate in the WHA (including a 77-goal season!), but was pretty old when he came back for one last try in the big League in 1979-80, scoring 6 goals in 27 games before calling it a career.

I guess if Ovechkin ages as well as Howe did (or maybe as well as Hull, though it's debatable), he can possibly do it. That's a pretty steep slope, though, with maybe two or three goal-scorers in history aging that well.

Pessimistically, I can't help but think that Ovechkin is kind of overdue for some sort of semi-serious injury. It's almost other-worldly how he's managed to avoid it.

But it's exciting that we can even have this conversation!

Great post.
 
  • Like
Reactions: MC2D
Status
Not open for further replies.

Ad

Upcoming events

Ad

Ad

-->