Will Ovechkin beat Gretzky in all-time goals?

[shtorm2005]

- Last and hopefully unlikely scenario: OV ends his carreer at the end of this contract either to pursue other things or due to an injury.

 

[gtrower]

That thought of anybody putting together ~18 seasons of ~50 goals in today’s game is just stupid. The thought of anybody even coming close is ludicrous. But Ovi just keeps chugging along.

 

[Dondini]

That thought of anybody putting together ~18 seasons of ~50 goals in today’s game is just stupid. The thought of anybody even coming close is ludicrous. But Ovi just keeps chugging along.

Yah I mean I don’t think he’s hitting 894 but I’ve said this before if he hits 802 he deserves the crown of hockey’s greatest goal scorer by hockey historians

 

[JianYang]

Yah I mean I don’t think he’s hitting 894 but I’ve said this before if he hits 802 he deserves the crown of hockey’s greatest goal scorer by hockey historians

He's already the greatest goal scorer in my mind, and if he hits 802, that would be a real symbolic stamp of dominance.

 

[Dondini]

He's already the greatest goal scorer in my mind, and if he hits 802, that would be a real symbolic stamp of dominance.

To be honest Mario Lemieux is the best goal scorer in history. He doesn’t get that title tho because he doesn’t have the raw totals. No doubt in my mind if he ya Gretzky like health he scores 1000 goals. But he didn’t. I hear ya tho Ovechkin obviously has a very strong case but I just think he needs to hit 802 for the majority of historians to agree

 

[Alex K]

To be honest Mario Lemieux is the best goal scorer in history. He doesn’t get that title tho because he doesn’t have the raw totals. No doubt in my mind if he ya Gretzky like health he scores 1000 goals. But he didn’t. I hear ya tho Ovechkin obviously has a very strong case but I just think he needs to hit 802 for the majority of historians to agree

On the other hand the ability to stay healthy is a part of greatness too, you're not building your legacy when you don't play. So it's debatable.

 

[Oddbob]

Why not though? If he plays until he's 40, that's about 550 more games. He'd need to score 0.50 goals a game.

He's consistently been scoring over 0.60...

Yeah, because there is guaranteed going to be no slow down in his career. Even greats like Lemieux and Gretzky slowed down with age/injuries, what makes Ovechkin immune to age?

 

[Oddbob]

To be honest Mario Lemieux is the best goal scorer in history. He doesn’t get that title tho because he doesn’t have the raw totals. No doubt in my mind if he ya Gretzky like health he scores 1000 goals. But he didn’t. I hear ya tho Ovechkin obviously has a very strong case but I just think he needs to hit 802 for the majority of historians to agree

Why are you and your assumption of others setting the benchmark of 802 to pass Howe for 2nd? That makes no logical sense, Gretzky set the mark of 894 and if not topped, then Ovechkin is not the greatest goal scorer ever. A great scorer no doubt, one of the best, NOT THE BEST! People always seem to forget also, that Gretzky played a play making style mostly looking to setup others for goals. If he had shot the same percentage as guys like Hull, Ovechkin and other snipers, he would have breezed past 1000 goals. And the goalie excuse isn't valid either, as no other player in Gretzky's era, besides Lemieux came anywhere near to those totals. If it was just bad goalies and defence, others would have followed Gretzk'y path of amazing numbers.

 

[ZZamboni]

I’m gonna go out on a limb. A crazy unheard of limb. A limb so weak, it may not hold up.

No. No Ovi won’t score more NHL goals than Gretzky.
And to add.... Ovi also won’t get more NHL assists than Gretzky.
And to add.... Ovi also won’t get more NHL points than Gretzky.

Crazy! I know!

 

[ALLCAPSALLTHETIME]

In terms of adjusted goals, considering Gretzky played a majority of his career in a no defense era, Gretzky sits at 758 and Ovechkin is at 750. So, he's almost caught him there. Jagr is at 841 and Howe at 925, though.

 

[RorschachWJK]

I’m gonna go out on a limb. A crazy unheard of limb. A limb so weak, it may not hold up.

No. No Ovi won’t score more NHL goals than Gretzky.
And to add.... Ovi also won’t get more NHL assists than Gretzky.
And to add.... Ovi also won’t get more NHL points than Gretzky.

Crazy! I know!

An era-adjusted comparison is much more honest than raw totals. Scoring in Gretzky's time was WAYYYYY easier. Taking that into account, Ovi will pass Wayne very soon.

 

[Mulletman]

To be honest Mario Lemieux is the best goal scorer in history. He doesn’t get that title tho because he doesn’t have the raw totals. No doubt in my mind if he ya Gretzky like health he scores 1000 goals. But he didn’t. I hear ya tho Ovechkin obviously has a very strong case but I just think he needs to hit 802 for the majority of historians to agree

Well to be completely honest, Lemieux also mostly has himself to blame. He retired after the 1996-97 season after scoring 50 goals and then didn't play for 3 seasons. When he returned in 2000-01 he scored 35 goals in 43 games. That's 3 seasons he just gave up on. Easy 120 goals for a guy like Lemieux. And he also sat out the half season back in 1994-95 because he didn't "feel" like playing. Add another easy 20 goals right there.

 

[KCC]

To be honest Mario Lemieux is the best goal scorer in history. He doesn’t get that title tho because he doesn’t have the raw totals. No doubt in my mind if he ya Gretzky like health he scores 1000 goals. But he didn’t. I hear ya tho Ovechkin obviously has a very strong case but I just think he needs to hit 802 for the majority of historians to agree

That's all shoulda, woulda, coulda. Facts are facts and he's not.

 

[48g90a138pts]

Bossy was pretty good too

GP 752, G 573, 0.75 GPG Avg

Would have been nice to see where he would have ended up with a full career.

 

[Halberdier]

Bossy was pretty good too

GP 752, G 573, 0.75 GPG Avg

Would have been nice to see where he would have ended up with a full career.

0.75 GPG is just sick. Obviously those were the days, but still.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

Perhaps it's already been mentioned, but scoring is really on the rise. Definitely helps his chances.

 

[Kingsfan1]

The crazy thing is I know lot of people think Ovy won’t beat Gretzky’s record because no one thinks it’s possible but man he has a great chance . Let’s say he gets another 25-30 goals this year he will sit at 660 by the end of the year . Say he gets 80 goals in the next 2 years and 60 the following 2 years which is very possible with how Marleau and others are able to score at their ages Ovy is a more pure goal scorer and won’t lose his touch . He will be at 37 years old and have 94-100 goals left to beat Gretzky at that point Ovy will play til 40-41 to beat it and he will sooner than people think.

Let’s go Ovy I’m rooting for you bud !

 

[Halberdier]

Perhaps it's already been mentioned, but scoring is really on the rise. Definitely helps his chances.

Depends on why scoring is on rise. If it's rising only because there is a flow of young scoring generation (Laine, Matthews, McDavid and also Barzal, Connor, etc.) pouring in, that doesn't help his cause.

My take is that those goalie equipment changes and a bit more strict reffing is increasing goal scoring for everyone and helping also Ovy, but those youngsters looking for dethroning Ovy and other old-timers like Crosby and Malking are not helping his cause, even when they increase goal scoring average.

 

[Laveuglette]

In terms of adjusted goals, considering Gretzky played a majority of his career in a no defense era, Gretzky sits at 758 and Ovechkin is at 750. So, he's almost caught him there. Jagr is at 841 and Howe at 925, though.

So sick of that crap. Sure, hockey evolved since then, but it wasn't as ridiculous as kids on here think. Of course if you only watch highlight goals the defense looks foolish, but if you watch a full game it's different.

 

[Plural]

Bossy was pretty good too

GP 752, G 573, 0.75 GPG Avg

Would have been nice to see where he would have ended up with a full career.

That's insane for sure. For reference, here's Gretzky's numbers for the first 10 seasons of his career:

GP 774, G 637, 0.82 GPG Avg

As great as Bossy was, Gretzky simply was greater for longer. And this is not even taking in to account the fact that many of those first 10 seasons Gretzky wasn't actually looking to score first (not that Bossy was purely one dimensional) but to make plays.

 

[Refuse]

Why are you and your assumption of others setting the benchmark of 802 to pass Howe for 2nd? That makes no logical sense, Gretzky set the mark of 894 and if not topped, then Ovechkin is not the greatest goal scorer ever. A great scorer no doubt, one of the best, NOT THE BEST! People always seem to forget also, that Gretzky played a play making style mostly looking to setup others for goals. If he had shot the same percentage as guys like Hull, Ovechkin and other snipers, he would have breezed past 1000 goals. And the goalie excuse isn't valid either, as no other player in Gretzky's era, besides Lemieux came anywhere near to those totals. If it was just bad goalies and defence, others would have followed Gretzk'y path of amazing numbers.

Not downplaying 99's greatness, but it wasn't just bad goalies and defence of the era. It was also playing on an extremely stacked team that set team goal scoring records a number of times in the highest scoring era of the league. The year Gretzky scored 92, the Oilers had a 2C scoring 50 (Messier). The numbers are a bit inflated, and as you said, he wasn't a shoot first guy. In my mind the title of goal scorer isn't just about the number of goals, it's subjective to play style and number of goal scoring titles as well as considering the amount of goals being scored in total.

 

[pezpunk]

Why are you and your assumption of others setting the benchmark of 802 to pass Howe for 2nd? That makes no logical sense, Gretzky set the mark of 894 and if not topped, then Ovechkin is not the greatest goal scorer ever. A great scorer no doubt, one of the best, NOT THE BEST! People always seem to forget also, that Gretzky played a play making style mostly looking to setup others for goals. If he had shot the same percentage as guys like Hull, Ovechkin and other snipers, he would have breezed past 1000 goals. And the goalie excuse isn't valid either, as no other player in Gretzky's era, besides Lemieux came anywhere near to those totals. If it was just bad goalies and defence, others would have followed Gretzk'y path of amazing numbers.

nobody takes this argument seriously. everyone knows different eras were different. anyone who is actually interested in determining the "greatest ever" will absolutely take those factors into account. any other approach is disingenuous and willfully unintelligent.

 

[alphabetical]

To be honest Mario Lemieux is the best goal scorer in history. He doesn’t get that title tho because he doesn’t have the raw totals. No doubt in my mind if he ya Gretzky like health he scores 1000 goals. But he didn’t.

The same could be said of bossy.

 

[BallardEra]

The same could be said of bossy.

Yep. People point to Bossy's gpg which was amazing but it pretty much covers his prime. I'm pretty sure Gretzky had a better gpg over that same span.

Had he played as long as Gretzky did we would have seen a much lower gpg for Bossy.


EDIT: Just saw that Plural posted Gretzky's gpg over his first 10 seasons.

 

[Oddbob]

Not downplaying 99's greatness, but it wasn't just bad goalies and defence of the era. It was also playing on an extremely stacked team that set team goal scoring records a number of times in the highest scoring era of the league. The year Gretzky scored 92, the Oilers had a 2C scoring 50 (Messier). The numbers are a bit inflated, and as you said, he wasn't a shoot first guy. In my mind the title of goal scorer isn't just about the number of goals, it's subjective to play style and number of goal scoring titles as well as considering the amount of goals being scored in total.

The reason those teams were "stacked" was cause of Gretzky! Without Gretzky, that Oilers team wouldn't have been that great. Look at them once Gretz was gone, they were not close, and none of the players on that team came close to those numbers with Gretzky not on their team. Whereas Gretzky continued to dominate without them. Messier may have scored 50, but Gretzky would have drawn the best defenders, leaving Messier to pick apart the rest. Kurri's talent was highly tied to Wayne, as without him, he is nowhere near the numbers he put up. Point being, the Oilers could have had a much worse roster and Wayne would still have put up awesome numbers. He also did quite well on the Kings who weren't exactly the greatest team. Also, not like Ovechkin has been playing with scrubs for teammates. He had Semin when he was still good, and has had one of the best centers in the game, for pretty much his whole career in Backstrom.