Will Ovechkin beat Gretzky in all-time goals?

[member 300185]

You guys forget that Gretzky only got to play with one winger almost his whole career. McSorley and Semenko to name a few. How about we take off one of Ovi's wingers and replace him with say a Colton Orr type. Centre is also harder to play. In that era, Gretzky had to have a goon as a winger or D man. Ovi is much larger than 99 also. Because of Ovi's size, he can protect him self much better than the smaller Gretzky. You guys are always looking at the numbers only when that is not the best way to look at it. There are other factors.

Ovi is not even close to Gretzky's talent.

 

[member 300185]

I mean it all depends on if he stays healthy, how well the caps play (assuming he stays with them) and ultimately, how long he plays in the NHL. Personally, I think that if anybody could do it, it's him. He shows no signs of slowing down and arguably the best sniper ever. He has a few more 50 goal seasons in him and then I could see him potting in 30's for a long time. I think he's going to play until he does it, just like Jagr. And let's be honest, it's harder to score now then it was then. Gretzky will always be The Great One but Ovechkin has made his case to be not too far behind. The NHL is different post 2005 than it was in the 80's and 90's

Another Ovi homer. Come on man. Gretzky only had one winger most of his career because he had a goon on his line. If Gretzky had another talented winger or D man all the time like Ovi does, you could easily tack on another 150 to 200 goals over the length of his career.

 

[member 300185]

I tell you what, lets put Semenko or McSorley on Ovi's line for 90% of his career and see how many less he scores. Its a real thing few here seem to recognize.

 

[tgoat]

Everytime Gretzkys record is broken, it's really amazing in this new era of hockey

 

[SherVaughn30]

I think he can do it if he can squeeze 1 or 2 more 50 goal seasons after this one. Wouldn't it be something if he finished his career with 899!

 

[KoozNetsOff 92]

I tell you what, lets put Semenko or McSorley on Ovi's line for 90% of his career and see how many less he scores. Its a real thing few here seem to recognize.

OK sure. Just make sure you give OV a prime Paul Coffey too.

 

[Plural]

OK sure. Just make sure you give OV a prime Paul Coffey too.

I think he could benefit from Kurri and Messier too. Tikkanen wasn't that bad either.

 

[Windy River]

OK sure. Just make sure you give OV a prime Paul Coffey too.

And make sure he’s trying to get pucks through these powerhouses his whole career

 

[Kingsfan1]

If he hits 50 goals or close to it next 2 seasons and this year he will be at around 760 by the age of 35. He can easily hit 30 for 2 more seasons after that he will be around 74 goals away from Gretzky’s record at the age of 37. Wow unbelievable he truly has a real shot . Its remarkable and I’m glad I’m alive to see it .

 

[SML2]

Just realize that even if Ovi does surpass Wayne, goal scoring was kind of like his side job. Fortunately for Ovi getting older and losing a step shouldn't affect his output since all he does is stand still and wing writers from the dot. He could probably do that until he's 50 if he wanted to.

 

[Caps8112]

I tell you what, lets put Semenko or McSorley on Ovi's line for 90% of his career and see how many less he scores. Its a real thing few here seem to recognize.

Lol guess robitaille, kurri, coffey, messier, leetch were all terrible players.
Let's transport joey crabbe, Chris clark, jeff halpern, beagle (love beagle) and all the other failed winger experiments back in time and see if gretzky can make them score goals. Mcsorley was on the great ones line to protect him. How is that ovis fault that ovi doesnt need protecting. Even with what people on here would deem decent players, Brouwer, ward, steckel, Johansson, were black holes offensively. Most were career 2nd line players tops but were put on the top line because the caps forever lacked that secondary scoring option. There was a good two year period when ovi had Backstrom and Johansson as his linemates. There was articles in the newspaper here pleading for those two to shoot the puck.

 

[BallardEra]

So we've gone from washed up to only scores on the PP to only scores on one timers to McSorley and Semenko excuses.

Good job there buddy. Can't wait to hear the new excuses if he ever breaks 894.

 

[JudgeandJury]

247 to tie

 

[member 300185]

Lol guess robitaille, kurri, coffey, messier, leetch were all terrible players.
Let's transport joey crabbe, Chris clark, jeff halpern, beagle (love beagle) and all the other failed winger experiments back in time and see if gretzky can make them score goals. Mcsorley was on the great ones line to protect him. How is that ovis fault that ovi doesnt need protecting. Even with what people on here would deem decent players, Brouwer, ward, steckel, Johansson, were black holes offensively. Most were career 2nd line players tops but were put on the top line because the caps forever lacked that secondary scoring option. There was a good two year period when ovi had Backstrom and Johansson as his linemates. There was articles in the newspaper here pleading for those two to shoot the puck.

Its not Ovi's fault. Never said it was. But Ovi is far inferior a player compared to Gretzky and people have to compare fairly. But at least you admit Gretzky had a far inferior supporting class.

 

[Plural]

Its not Ovi's fault. Never said it was. But Ovi is far inferior a player compared to Gretzky and people have to compare fairly. But at least you admit Gretzky had a far inferior supporting class.

Gretzk had vastly better supporting cast in Edmonton. And he also vastly better player than Ovechkin

 

[VeeMerk]

Another Ovi homer. Come on man. Gretzky only had one winger most of his career because he had a goon on his line. If Gretzky had another talented winger or D man all the time like Ovi does, you could easily tack on another 150 to 200 goals over the length of his career.

I think you're taking this topic way too seriously. At the end of the day, there's a million variables than need to be considered with no clear answer. I agree, Gretzky had less talent on his line for a while but it was A LOT easier to score back then than it is nowadays. There's honestly no way to compare BUT other than Ovi, there is no other modern day player that would even enter this conversation.

 

[Windy River]

247 to tie

Yeah... still seems like a long shot at best. Unfortunately injury lurks for anyone, moreso as their careers progress.

 

[member 300185]

I think you're taking this topic way too seriously. At the end of the day, there's a million variables than need to be considered with no clear answer. I agree, Gretzky had less talent on his line for a while but it was A LOT easier to score back then than it is nowadays. There's honestly no way to compare BUT other than Ovi, there is no other modern day player that would even enter this conversation.

People keep saying that. I don't agree and neither does Brodeurs 149 regular and playoff shutouts. Thats like going over a season and a half without having a goal scored on you. Terry Sawchuk with 103 shutouts without a mask. George Hainsworth with 94 and Hall with 84. Then you have Beezer in NYR, Hasek, Fuhr, Moog, etc.

Not as easy to score as people think.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

247 to tie

Tall order but achievable. And that is simply remarkable considering the era he's played in.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

You guys forget that Gretzky only got to play with one winger almost his whole career. McSorley and Semenko to name a few. How about we take off one of Ovi's wingers and replace him with say a Colton Orr type. Centre is also harder to play. In that era, Gretzky had to have a goon as a winger or D man. Ovi is much larger than 99 also. Because of Ovi's size, he can protect him self much better than the smaller Gretzky. You guys are always looking at the numbers only when that is not the best way to look at it. There are other factors.

Ovi is not even close to Gretzky's talent.

Gretzky's in a league of very few when it comes to talent. Orr, Lemieux, Howe...

But, I can't let you get away with this "only got to play with one winger" stuff. He played on stacked teams for most of his career. Please, let's not try to argue otherwise.

 

[filinski77]

People keep saying that. I don't agree and neither does Brodeurs 149 regular and playoff shutouts. Thats like going over a season and a half without having a goal scored on you. Terry Sawchuk with 103 shutouts without a mask. George Hainsworth with 94 and Hall with 84. Then you have Beezer in NYR, Hasek, Fuhr, Moog, etc.

Not as easy to score as people think.

Gretzky's good scoring years came from 79/80 to 89/90.

Brodeur, Sawchuk, Hainsworth, and Hall never played while Gretzky played though, so how could you use that as an argument towards it not being easier to score goals back then?

From 79/80 to 89/90 (Gretzky's 1st 40+ goal season to his last one) vs. Ovi's career so far:

- Avg goals per game: Wayne = 3.77 - Ovi = 2.84 (Ovi era = 33% less)
- Sv% : Wayne = 87.8% - Ovi = 91.1% (Ovi era = 3.29% lower sv%)

Ovi has over 5,100 shots. If he scored an extra 3.3% of the time, that would be = ~168 goals already. If he scaled properly with Wayne's era of higher scoring, his 647 goals x 33% avg goals increase = ~213 goals. If Ovi played in Wayne's era, statistically at least, without looking at random variables that we couldn't account for, Ovi could very well have over 850 goals already.

 

[Sam Spade]

The biggest thing that killed any chance Ovechkin had were/are lock outs. 2004, 2012, and the next one coming up.

 

[wetcoast]

Yeah... still seems like a long shot at best. Unfortunately injury lurks for anyone, moreso as their careers progress.

This and father time is slowly creeping into the picture as well.

247 goals (I'm guessing he gets around 10 more this year) is basically 5 more years of 45ish goals at age 34 plus.

It's only been done 11 times in NHL history (basically since expansion) by 10 different players, Johnny Buyck did it twice.

Player Season Finder | Hockey-Reference.com

I used to think that he might get there but the older he gets the less likely it is to happen IMO.

He still already is the greatest goalscorer of all time but Wayne will be out of reach I think.

 

[wetcoast]

Gretzky's good scoring years came from 79/80 to 89/90.

Brodeur, Sawchuk, Hainsworth, and Hall never played while Gretzky played though, so how could you use that as an argument towards it not being easier to score goals back then?

From 79/80 to 89/90 (Gretzky's 1st 40+ goal season to his last one) vs. Ovi's career so far:

- Avg goals per game: Wayne = 3.77 - Ovi = 2.84 (Ovi era = 33% less)
- Sv% : Wayne = 87.8% - Ovi = 91.1% (Ovi era = 3.29% lower sv%)

Ovi has over 5,100 shots. If he scored an extra 3.3% of the time, that would be = ~168 goals already. If he scaled properly with Wayne's era of higher scoring, his 647 goals x 33% avg goals increase = ~213 goals. If Ovi played in Wayne's era, statistically at least, without looking at random variables that we couldn't account for, Ovi could very well have over 850 goals already.

Ovechkin is currently 4th all time in adjusted goals (he just passed Selanne) by hockey reference (which is as good or bad as any adjustments that I have seen out there)

Howe 925
Jagr 841
Gretzky 758
Ovechkin 742
Selanne 741

NHL & WHA Career Leaders and Records for Adjusted Goals | Hockey-Reference.com

 

[Master Yoda]

The biggest thing that killed any chance Ovechkin had were/are lock outs. 2004, 2012, and the next one coming up.

True. Arguably, he could/would have about 50~60 more goals