Why is it taking so long to extend Chabot?

[AchtzehnBaby]

I agree - but in fairness no player would want to stay in the environment the team has been in the past few years. A strong rebuild may change things.

I think the shit show is over.

I doubt the current young players would dwell on the past. Most stronger minded people move on and put that shit behind them fast.

These are professional athletes. They don’t sit around developing negative thoughts about shit that is not on their radar. I think most are excited be around a rebuilding team that will be like the David vs Goliath team.

There is a reason I love the Senators: they are always the underdogs

 

[Tuna99]

All the talk in Montreal is how they need a LD puck mover who is young to stabalize that aging D and play with Weber.

Offer sheet or not, the Montreal threat of an offer sheet to Chabot will drive up his price for Ottawa. And Montreal has signing bonus money Melnyck can’t even dream of.

Price, Weber and the GM are in a win now mode and the contract for Chabot will be effected by what happened this summer without Aho - once the Montreal media gets a hold of this it will be Bobby Ryan in Philly x1000.

 

[YouGotAStuGoing]

I think the **** show is over.

Anything to base this off other than a gut feeling? Because based solely on facts, we're in the middle of the quagmire with no end in sight.

 

[danielpalfredsson]

4 first rounders is an over pay for 5 years of Chabot. As you mentioned EM prob matches anything less and I doubt any team offers more. 8 years of Stone was worth a single first rounder and EK/MD were a late first plus lesser pieces.

I don’t think loosing him to an offer sheet is a big risk. I’d be more concerned about PD failing to secure him beyond 5 years or possibly trading him in advance of a bonus payout some year for a package less valuable that the offer sheet compensation.

A team does not have to give up four first rounders to get 5 years. If a team gives up 4 first rounders, it will be an 8 year offer.

The Aho offer sheet is the type of offer sheet that is most likely to happen if a team pulls the trigger and Chabot signs one. That offer sheet required a 1st/2nd/3rd. I'm sure almost every team with cap space would gladly give that up along with 8.5M worth of cap space to get Chabot.

The risk isn't so much losing him to an offer sheet as it is having the Sens trade him BECAUSE of the threat of an offer sheet. If losing him to an offer sheet is a risk, he won't get to July 1st because the Senators can't stomach losing him for only a 1st/2nd/3rd. We still won't get full value for him because of the nature of the trade but we'll get more than a 1st/2nd/3rd.

 

[The Lewler]

An offer sheet from Montreal on Chabot would be hilarious.

In a really dark humour kinda way.

The shit show isn't over until we see proof it's over.

 

[BonHoonLayneCornell]

I don't know how you can say the shit storm is over until we see some money committed and we have a real front office. Only thing that's happened so far is the gutting from the same two people in charge that caused the need to rebuild in the first place.

Maybe another cheap coaching hire will fix everything though.

 

[AchtzehnBaby]

Anything to base this off other than a gut feeling? Because based solely on facts, we're in the middle of the quagmire with no end in sight.

I really think someone got the message and will stay out of the limelight for a while.

I really think the front office rebuild will be here before the season starts.

I can’t see it any other way. The bottom of the barrel is now.

The only thing that worries me is PD’s comment saying they still talk all the time.

 

[YouGotAStuGoing]

I really think someone got the message and will stay out of the limelight for a while.

I really think the front office rebuild will be here before the season starts.

I can’t see it any other way. The bottom of the barrel is now.

The only thing that worries me is PD’s comment saying they still talk all the time.

Wishful thinking doesn't fix rot.

 

[JD1]

I don't know how you can say the **** storm is over until we see some money committed and we have a real front office. Only thing that's happened so far is the gutting from the same two people in charge that caused the need to rebuild in the first place.

Maybe another cheap coaching hire will fix everything though.

Did the gutting cause the need to rebuild or did the need to rebuild cause the gutting?

 

[BonHoonLayneCornell]

Did the gutting cause the need to rebuild or did the need to rebuild cause the gutting?

The two men in charge one way or another caused the need to rebuild and the gutting that followed.

The primary issues were not being able to spend competitively on or off ice, or being able to allocate the little resources they had available, effectively.

A cap spending team with quality management, and coaches that arent hired primarily because of their pay grade would have succeeded with the core they moved on from.

 

[Tuna99]

Until Melnyck has put up $150 million to sign Chabot and Tkachuk this is still the biggest gong show in sports.

He paid $106 million for the entire franchise and stadium so if anyone thinks he’ll put up $150 million for two players you’re not paying attention.

This doesn’t end well because nothing with Melnyck ever ends well in ottawa - Alfie, Karlsson, Stone, the coaches, Heatley, Spezza, his financial management, Lebreton, the outdoor game. Dorion said he would never trade EK and would sign him, and 1 year later he traded him.

Melncyk thinks he’s bigger then everyone, that’s why he bragged he bullied a 10 year old who thought he the Sens were crappy when they were the worst team in the NHL

 

[branch]

I really think someone got the message and will stay out of the limelight for a while.

I really think the front office rebuild will be here before the season starts.

I can’t see it any other way. The bottom of the barrel is now.

The only thing that worries me is PD’s comment saying they still talk all the time.

Ya I don't think the shitshow is over until Eugene sells or we get a DT arena. We will continue to toil in Kanata until one of those two things occur.

 

[The Lewler]

I really think someone got the message and will stay out of the limelight for a while.

I really think the front office rebuild will be here before the season starts.

I can’t see it any other way. The bottom of the barrel is now.

The only thing that worries me is PD’s comment saying they still talk all the time.

You are obviously entitled to believe that, but I think there are a large number of us that will point out you could have literally posted that at any point during this debacle of a downward spiral, and we just keep setting record lows.

I can't change your belief, but we have still seen zero evidence to indicate we are pulling out of the dive.

We have repeatedly thought the bottom of the barrel was X point.

 

[Tnuoc Alucard]

The biggest RFA, this off season, is of course Mitch Marner ... and I've not even heard whisper of a rumour that he'd be targeted for an offer sheet.

Perhaps the compensation is too high, and the team making the offer sheet knows the Leaf would match.
Will Chabot, after next season, rise to heights that Mitch Marner is at now?

Perhaps, but probably not, but will still be a highly regarded player, that may or may not attract an offer sheet or two, if the teams making these offer sheets believes he's worth the compensation, and that Ottawa would not match, or be able to match.

Personally I believe that Ottawa will try very hard to sign Chabot, before he's able to enter into negociations with other teams, and entertains an Offer Sheet, and if Chabot signs an Offer Sheet, Ottawa will match.

If they do not match, I believe that would be the straw that breaks the Camel's Back for the average Senators fan in this market.

There are things Chabot must consider ...... an offer from the Senators before he becomes a RFA, might be better, than what may be available after the new CBA is negotiated ...... I'm assuming this current CBA will be ending after this season, and that other teams and GMs would like to see some changes to contract structure, reducing or eliminating Signing bonuses, and the reduction in contract terms (years). Also that they'll be unable or unwilling to present an offer sheet to a RFA, after the current CBA expires next July
Offer Sheet (AAV) Compensation

$1,395,053 or below: None
Over $1,395,053 to $2,113,716: 3rd rd. pick
Over $2,113,716 to $4,227,437: 2nd rd. pick
Over $4,227,437 to $6,341,152: 1st, 3rd rd. picks
Over $6,341,152 to $8,454,871: 1st, 2nd, 3rd rd. picks
Over $8,454,871 to $10,568,589: (2) 1st, 2nd, 3rd rd. picks
Over $10,568,589: (4) 1st round picks

• The picks must be a team's own, original draft picks
• If a team has traded their pick previously, they can trade to get it back
• All draft picks must be for the next draft, with the exception of multiple first round picks
• When having to give up multiple first round picks teams get an extra year, but they are the next draft picks available when the offer sheet is submitted so no picking and choosing
• A team can have more than one offer sheet outstanding, as long as they aren't using the same picks

 

[Back in Black]

Personally, I think Chabot has had one foot out the door since the broken locker room season.

Not getting the playing time, Guy, the vibes of the team. All bad. Then watching the trades and the contract “negotiations” unfold followed by more trades. And more trades.

agreed! Chabot has seen this since day 1. He'll be eager to get out as soon as the money flows....

 

[stempniaksen]

The biggest RFA, this off season, is of course Mitch Marner ... and I've not even heard whisper of a rumour that he'd be targeted for an offer sheet.

Perhaps the compensation is too high, and the team making the offer sheet knows the Leaf would match.
Will Chabot, after next season, rise to heights that Mitch Marner is at now?

Perhaps, but probably not, but will still be a highly regarded player, that may or may not attract an offer sheet or two, if the teams making these offer sheets believes he's worth the compensation, and that Ottawa would not match, or be able to match.

Personally I believe that Ottawa will try very hard to sign Chabot, before he's able to enter into negociations with other teams, and entertains an Offer Sheet, and if Chabot signs an Offer Sheet, Ottawa will match.

If they do not match, I believe that would be the straw that breaks the Camel's Back for the average Senators fan in this market.

There are things Chabot must consider ...... an offer from the Senators before he becomes a RFA, might be better, than what may be available after the new CBA is negotiated ...... I'm assuming this current CBA will be ending after this season, and that other teams and GMs would like to see some changes to contract structure, reducing or eliminating Signing bonuses, and the reduction in contract terms (years). Also that they'll be unable or unwilling to present an offer sheet to a RFA, after the current CBA expires next July

The CBA expires in September. Teams will have 2+ months to make a bonus filled offer to Chabot's camp before having to worry about changes in the next CBA. It would be silly to think Chabot won't have a contract in place prior to the current CBA expiring (whether with Ottawa or someone else).

 

[Gil Gunderson]

Ya I don't think the ****show is over until Eugene sells or we get a DT arena. We will continue to toil in Kanata until one of those two things occur.

I don't think DT would make much of a difference in whether Melnyk spends or not.

 

[HoweHullOrr]

Until Melnyck has put up $150 million to sign Chabot and Tkachuk this is still the biggest gong show in sports.

He paid $106 million for the entire franchise and stadium so if anyone thinks he’ll put up $150 million for two players you’re not paying attention.

This doesn’t end well because nothing with Melnyck ever ends well in ottawa - Alfie, Karlsson, Stone, the coaches, Heatley, Spezza, his financial management, Lebreton, the outdoor game. Dorion said he would never trade EK and would sign him, and 1 year later he traded him.

Melncyk thinks he’s bigger then everyone, that’s why he bragged he bullied a 10 year old who thought he the Sens were crappy when they were the worst team in the NHL

Melnyk.

 

[Tnuoc Alucard]

The CBA expires in September. Teams will have 2+ months to make a bonus filled offer to Chabot's camp before having to worry about changes in the next CBA. It would be silly to think Chabot won't have a contract in place prior to the current CBA expiring (whether with Ottawa or someone else).

Yeah, I was not 100% sure as to when the current CBA could expire, if not extended this September.

In any case the Senators would match, as letting him go to another team and accepting the compensation would not sit well with the fence sitters, who are looking for EM to put his $$$$ where his mouth is.

 

[BondraTime]

Yeah, I was not 100% sure as to when the current CBA could expire, if not extended this September.

In any case the Senators would match, as letting him go to another team and accepting the compensation would not sit well with the fence sitters, who are looking for EM to put his $$$$ where his mouth is.

If the offersheet gets made, it will be ~23-25 million in the first calendar year, ~13 million due as soon as he signs and ~11 million due the following July 1st. Melnyk has paid a total of 10 million in bonus money since he bought the Senators, he'd have to more than double that in a 12 month period, and more than quadruple that over the contract duration.

The compensation would be 1st, 1st, 2nd, 3rd, at best, which is peanuts for any playoff team to pay. No team will go over the threshold to 4 1st's when the whole premise is the big bonus contracts to teams who have questionable spending power.

Something like 5 x 10.5, with 48 million'ish in bonus money. I have a very, very, very hard time seeing Melnyk open to paying Chabot more than half in a calendar year than what he is paying for the entire roster this year.

Hard to see Melnyk want to match that, as the offersheet would look similar to this, unless Montreal want to make sure they don't have a chance again by staying in the 1st, 2nd, 3rd range like they did this year, though I'd think that they would have altered their thought process after the Hurricanes easily matched.

Melnyk has already shown he cares more about his immediate wallet than what fans and “fence sitters” are thinking, I don’t see why this would be any different, as it would be a gigantic amount of money, that he has never even come close to spending in his entire time owning the team, without any of the usual in season revenue that he would normally have in his usual biweekly payments to players.

 

[GrantLemons]

If the offersheet gets made, it will be ~23-25 million in the first calendar year, ~13 million due as soon as he signs and ~11 million due the following July 1st. Melnyk has paid a total of 10 million in bonus money since he bought the Senators, he'd have to more than double that in a 12 month period, and more than quadruple that over the contract duration.

The compensation would be 1st, 1st, 2nd, 3rd, at best, which is peanuts for any playoff team to pay. No team will go over the threshold to 4 1st's when the whole premise is the big bonus contracts to teams who have questionable spending power.

Something like 5 x 10.5, with 48 million'ish in bonus money. I have a very, very, very hard time seeing Melnyk open to paying Chabot more than half in a calendar year than what he is paying for the entire roster this year.

Hard to see Melnyk want to match that, as the offersheet would look similar to this, unless Montreal want to make sure they don't have a chance again by staying in the 1st, 2nd, 3rd range like they did this year, though I'd think that they would have altered their thought process after the Hurricanes easily matched.

Melnyk has already shown he cares more about his immediate wallet than what fans and “fence sitters” are thinking, I don’t see why this would be any different, as it would be a gigantic amount of money, that he has never even come close to spending in his entire time owning the team, without any of the usual in season revenue that he would normally have in his usual biweekly payments to players.

Chabot will almost certainly be looking for something to take him to UFA. He has more than enough leverage to do so. He's an elite 1D putting up big points and only improving, and the team he's on is a dumpster fire.

I expect the Sens to go for 8 years, but if I'm Thomas Chabot and his agent, I'm not budging. The offer sheets will be lucrative with signing bonus money, and someone will give him the 5 year deal to take him to UFA.

I just don't see the Sens having much of any leverage in this negotiation. The only thing they have is they can offer 3 more years right now, but because of how good Chabot is, he can easily bet on himself on a 5 year deal to take him to age 27, then sign a max term deal when he hits UFA.

It's likely just going to come down to whether or not Eugene can/will dish out an Aho'esque signing bonus to him. Either way it's going to be fascinating to watch it play out.

 

[Tuna99]

Melnyk.

The ‘C’ stands for Cheap

 

[Micklebot]

The biggest RFA, this off season, is of course Mitch Marner ... and I've not even heard whisper of a rumour that he'd be targeted for an offer sheet.

Seriously? Not a whisper? Might want to get your hearing checked...

How close did the Blue Jackets come to offer-sheeting Mitch Marner? - Sportsnet.ca

Toronto Maple Leafs: Isles Reportedly Preparing Marner Offer



There has definitely been rumours about him being targeted.

 

[Tnuoc Alucard]

Seriously? Not a whisper? Might want to get your hearing checked...

How close did the Blue Jackets come to offer-sheeting Mitch Marner? - Sportsnet.ca

Toronto Maple Leafs: Isles Reportedly Preparing Marner Offer



There has definitely been rumours about him being targeted.

Thanks for those.
I honestly did not hear of any of these.

 

[Tnuoc Alucard]

If the offersheet gets made, it will be ~23-25 million in the first calendar year, ~13 million due as soon as he signs and ~11 million due the following July 1st. Melnyk has paid a total of 10 million in bonus money since he bought the Senators, he'd have to more than double that in a 12 month period, and more than quadruple that over the contract duration.

The compensation would be 1st, 1st, 2nd, 3rd, at best, which is peanuts for any playoff team to pay. No team will go over the threshold to 4 1st's when the whole premise is the big bonus contracts to teams who have questionable spending power.

Something like 5 x 10.5, with 48 million'ish in bonus money. I have a very, very, very hard time seeing Melnyk open to paying Chabot more than half in a calendar year than what he is paying for the entire roster this year.

Hard to see Melnyk want to match that, as the offersheet would look similar to this, unless Montreal want to make sure they don't have a chance again by staying in the 1st, 2nd, 3rd range like they did this year, though I'd think that they would have altered their thought process after the Hurricanes easily matched.

Melnyk has already shown he cares more about his immediate wallet than what fans and “fence sitters” are thinking, I don’t see why this would be any different, as it would be a gigantic amount of money, that he has never even come close to spending in his entire time owning the team, without any of the usual in season revenue that he would normally have in his usual biweekly payments to players.

I have not done the research, but perhaps someone already has, to find how many teams, with their Stanley Cup Contending Window(s) Open, that meet the criteria below, that also have the Cap Space to make an Offer Sheet that fits your example (above).

• The picks must be a team's own, original draft picks
• If a team has traded their pick previously, they can trade to get it back
• All draft picks must be for the next draft, with the exception of multiple first round picks
• When having to give up multiple first round picks teams get an extra year, but they are the next draft picks available when the offer sheet is submitted so no picking and choosing

I still have to believe that Ottawa will match any offer, because if they do not, it's the beginning of the end of the NHL in Ottawa ........ unless there is a complete overhaul of the CBA.