Why is it taking so long to extend Chabot?

[Senscore]

It's not Chabot's choice to leave, when he becomes a RFA, it would be the Senators choice to let him go.

I feel like I should bookmark this.

 

[Benttheknee]

It's not Chabot's choice to leave, when he becomes a RFA, it would be the Senators choice to let him go.

It absolutely is Chabot's choice. All he has to do is wait and become an RFA. Then when that happens he waits for the offer sheet from Montreal to appear and sign it. It will be full of bonus money up front which will be hard for Eugene to swallow. Ottawa will get 4 first rounders, but assuming Montreal is stable, they will be 20+ for 4 years and Chabot is worth that price.

 

[FormentonTheFuture]

It absolutely is Chabot's choice. All he has to do is wait and become an RFA. Then when that happens he waits for the offer sheet from Montreal to appear and sign it. It will be full of bonus money up front which will be hard for Eugene to swallow. Ottawa will get 4 first rounders, but assuming Montreal is stable, they will be 20+ for 4 years and Chabot is worth that price.

Ottawa must keep chabot at all costs. Personally I don’t see an offer sheet scenario occurring, but I especially don’t see any team making an offer that would require four firsts. Has that ever happened? That would be way too much for teams IMO.

 

[BonHoonLayneCornell]

It absolutely is Chabot's choice. All he has to do is wait and become an RFA. Then when that happens he waits for the offer sheet from Montreal to appear and sign it. It will be full of bonus money up front which will be hard for Eugene to swallow. Ottawa will get 4 first rounders, but assuming Montreal is stable, they will be 20+ for 4 years and Chabot is worth that price.

He was being captain obvious as usual that it will technically be Ottawa's choice to match an offer sheet or not. He knows this will be their biggest financial challenge yet to get this deal done and that its an uphill battle if an offer sheet comes in to play.

If a Chabot contract gets signed in Ottawa, its going to be the largest AAV contract the organization has ever handed out, the first significant long term deal given since Bobby Ryan 5 years ago, and 10-20 mil in bonus money in year one alone. Your skepticism is warranted.

 

[Gil Gunderson]

It absolutely is Chabot's choice. All he has to do is wait and become an RFA. Then when that happens he waits for the offer sheet from Montreal to appear and sign it. It will be full of bonus money up front which will be hard for Eugene to swallow. Ottawa will get 4 first rounders, but assuming Montreal is stable, they will be 20+ for 4 years and Chabot is worth that price.

We won’t get 4 1st rounders. They could get it done with just giving us a 1st, 2nd, and 3rd.

 

[Senscore]

We won’t get 4 1st rounders. They could get it done with just giving us a 1st, 2nd, and 3rd.

And even if that won't get it done they can offer a yearly salary average of up to $10.1 million (based on 2018 averages) and would only lose two 1sts, a 2nd, and a 3rd.

For a guy like Chabot that's a pittance, especially from teams expecting late round picks.

 

[Tnuoc Alucard]

It absolutely is Chabot's choice. All he has to do is wait and become an RFA. Then when that happens he waits for the offer sheet from Montreal to appear and sign it. It will be full of bonus money up front which will be hard for Eugene to swallow. Ottawa will get 4 first rounders, but assuming Montreal is stable, they will be 20+ for 4 years and Chabot is worth that price.

It's not Chabot's choice to leave, when he becomes a RFA, it would be the Senators choice to let him go.

IF he receives an offer sheet, and signs it....... that's it for him, then it's all up to the Senators to decide whether to match, or to accept whatever the commensurate compensation is, with the offer sheet.

It's up to the Senators whether he would remain a Senator, not Chabot.

 

[PoutineSp00nZ]

If the Senators let Chabot go to an offer sheet I am done with this team until Melnyk is gone.

 

[Benttheknee]

It's not Chabot's choice to leave, when he becomes a RFA, it would be the Senators choice to let him go.

IF he receives an offer sheet, and signs it....... that's it for him, then it's all up to the Senators to decide whether to match, or to accept whatever the commensurate compensation is, with the offer sheet.

It's up to the Senators whether he would remain a Senator, not Chabot.

Of course you are correct, but when you have management bleeding hockey assets for cash, there is a decent chance Melnyk will not match a bonus laden contract. Montreal sent out an offer sheet this year and Chabot would be perfect (French Canadian) for their roster. They need quality defensemen and to get him all they have to do is pay what he is worth and draft picks.

This is the power Chabot has. He could force the NHL to step in and save the Senators from a man who hasn't got the money to be and NHL owner any longer. I am pretty certain that Bettman won't move the team though.

 

[danielpalfredsson]

Here's my simplified take.

-Chabot won't be signed this season.
-This is because Chabot's agent knows he can go to July 1st and attract the Aho offer sheet (5 x 8.5 w/full front loaded bonuses)
-Even if the Sens will match this offer sheet, it would be foolish to cave now and give Chabot a bonus laden 5 x 8.5M contract. It's better to wait it out and hope that offer sheet never comes.
-5 x 8.5M would be the most lucrative contract a defender has gotten off of their ELC in the cap era. This is even adjusting for cap hit percentages. It is more lucrative than Ekblad/Karlsson/Doughty/Pietrangelo because it gets Chabot a similar cap hit percentage without giving up as much term or UFA years.
-The offer sheet being a threat is a direct consequence of Melnyk's ownership. It's the same way that Montreal only made the offer sheet because Carolina is also a budget team.

Don't expect Chabot to be signed anytime this summer. If he is, I will be shocked. If he does get signed it means the player really wants to be here to the extent that he is leaving cash on the table. There's no strategic reason for Chabot to sign now.

The Senators will be doing the right thing by not caving if Chabot's people do end up anchoring what they want from Ottawa to the possibility of an offer sheet. That isn't me absolving the team of the responsibility for the bed they've made for themselves with their lack of financial commitment to winning. It's just that it doesn't make sense to give Chabot that contract now if the team is willing to match. They can wait and hope that an offer sheet doesn't come. If it does come, they end up giving him the same thing anyways, if it doesn't come. they'll get a better deal.

The big question will be, can Melnyk pay 20 million dollars over roughly 1 year in bonuses? If he can't, the Senators WILL NOT leave Chabot open to an offer sheet. They can't risk the proposition of losing Chabot for a 1st/2nd/3rd. They'll trade Chabot before July 1st if this is the case.

If Melnyk is willing and able to pay those bonuses, they won't trade Chabot because trading Chabot is a hockey move this team can't win. Although, maybe that's not relevant since this team's track record makes it seem as if we don't make hockey moves, we make money moves.

 

[Micklebot]

we should go get some other team to offer an offersheet we are willing to match just to make him think that's what other teams value him at... I know, collusion and all, but I thought it would be funny.

 

[danielpalfredsson]

we should go get some other team to offer an offersheet we are willing to match just to make him think that's what other teams value him at... I know, collusion and all, but I thought it would be funny.

Chabot has to sign the offer sheet. A team can't just sign him to one against his will. So that wouldn't solve anything. Chabot is not signing an offer sheet for less than he'd sign with Ottawa, so there'd be no advantage to that collusion.

The best case scenario is that the Sens are willing to match the Aho sheet. They wait it out an either the offer sheet never comes, or the bonus rules change in the CBA before Chabot can be signed to an Aho sheet.

 

[Micklebot]

Chabot has to sign the offer sheet. A team can't just sign him to one against his will. So that wouldn't solve anything. Chabot is not signing an offer sheet for less than he'd sign with Ottawa, so there'd be no advantage to that collusion.

The best case scenario is that the Sens are willing to match the Aho sheet. They wait it out an either the offer sheet never comes, or the bonus rules change in the CBA before Chabot can be signed to an Aho sheet.

Yeah I get that, the offer would have to be competitive, but it was more a joke than anything else,

 

[Back in Black]

11 pages, and we all know Chabot will walk.....

 

[Sweatred]

I can’t imagine a situation where EM doesn’t match below $10 million/year. I doubt any team would give 4 first rounders for him but I worry these numbers will move in the next CBA.

 

[Upgrayedd]

I can’t imagine a situation where EM doesn’t match below $10 million/year. I doubt any team would give 4 first rounders for him but I worry these numbers will move in the next CBA.

A decent sized signing bonus should do the trick imo

 

[Nac Mac Feegle]

I can’t imagine a situation where EM doesn’t match below $10 million/year. I doubt any team would give 4 first rounders for him but I worry these numbers will move in the next CBA.

It's a bit early in the morning for me....is his next contract due before or after the next CBA? (Even if it's before, we will have Brady on the clock a year later, so....)

 

[Ice-Tray]

Here's my simplified take.

-Chabot won't be signed this season.
-This is because Chabot's agent knows he can go to July 1st and attract the Aho offer sheet (5 x 8.5 w/full front loaded bonuses)
-Even if the Sens will match this offer sheet, it would be foolish to cave now and give Chabot a bonus laden 5 x 8.5M contract. It's better to wait it out and hope that offer sheet never comes.
-5 x 8.5M would be the most lucrative contract a defender has gotten off of their ELC in the cap era. This is even adjusting for cap hit percentages. It is more lucrative than Ekblad/Karlsson/Doughty/Pietrangelo because it gets Chabot a similar cap hit percentage without giving up as much term or UFA years.
-The offer sheet being a threat is a direct consequence of Melnyk's ownership. It's the same way that Montreal only made the offer sheet because Carolina is also a budget team.

Don't expect Chabot to be signed anytime this summer. If he is, I will be shocked. If he does get signed it means the player really wants to be here to the extent that he is leaving cash on the table. There's no strategic reason for Chabot to sign now.

The Senators will be doing the right thing by not caving if Chabot's people do end up anchoring what they want from Ottawa to the possibility of an offer sheet. That isn't me absolving the team of the responsibility for the bed they've made for themselves with their lack of financial commitment to winning. It's just that it doesn't make sense to give Chabot that contract now if the team is willing to match. They can wait and hope that an offer sheet doesn't come. If it does come, they end up giving him the same thing anyways, if it doesn't come. they'll get a better deal.

The big question will be, can Melnyk pay 20 million dollars over roughly 1 year in bonuses? If he can't, the Senators WILL NOT leave Chabot open to an offer sheet. They can't risk the proposition of losing Chabot for a 1st/2nd/3rd. They'll trade Chabot before July 1st if this is the case.

If Melnyk is willing and able to pay those bonuses, they won't trade Chabot because trading Chabot is a hockey move this team can't win. Although, maybe that's not relevant since this team's track record makes it seem as if we don't make hockey moves, we make money moves.

MTL also sent an offersheet to Point in Tampa Bay.

I think we need to see a lot more offer sheets being offered and signed before we start assuming that they play a part in negotiations. Four (edit) signed in a decade doesn’t make it a trend. One team declining one year to give it a try also doesn’t make it a trend.

Offersheets aren’t attractive because of how much compensation is needed for good players, but also because it basically blacklists a GM. The situation with Aho was an isolated instance of the player breaking out of the team trying to leverage him. Point didn’t even bother to sign his offer, as it looks like he’d rather just negotiate with the team.

Unless the Sens treat TC like Carolina treated Aho, I don’t see an offer sheet being a big issue at this point, especially at a low level of compensation.

We really need to see a lot more offer sheet action before adding it to the list of things to be ‘scared’ of. In my opinion of course.

 

[Sweatred]

It's a bit early in the morning for me....is his next contract due before or after the next CBA? (Even if it's before, we will have Brady on the clock a year later, so....)

The CBA expires after 20-21 with an opt out window for the NHL in Sept 2019.... Chabot is a RFA after 19-20... so I guess the answer is “possibly”. As you mentioned the potential for the floor of the upper compensation group to increase will apply to someone down the line (Chabot, Brady.. etc)

 

[danielpalfredsson]

MTL also sent an offersheet to Point in Tampa Bay.

I think we need to see a lot more offer sheets being offered and signed before we start assuming that they play a part in negotiations. Four (edit) signed in a decade doesn’t make it a trend. One team declining one year to give it a try also doesn’t make it a trend.

Offersheets aren’t attractive because of how much compensation is needed for good players, but also because it basically blacklists a GM. The situation with Aho was an isolated instance of the player breaking out of the team trying to leverage him. Point didn’t even bother to sign his offer, as it looks like he’d rather just negotiate with the team.

Unless the Sens treat TC like Carolina treated Aho, I don’t see an offer sheet being a big issue at this point, especially at a low level of compensation.

We really need to see a lot more offer sheet action before adding it to the list of things to be ‘scared’ of. In my opinion of course.

You are Chabot's agent....you know the following

-Aho just got an offersheet or about 8.5 x 5
-The offersheet was predicated on the idea that CAR would have trouble with the bonus structure.
-Your player plays for a team that (might) have trouble with the bonus structure.
-Therefore, your player could wait until July 1st 2020 and see if teams take the same approach as with Aho since the situations are parallel.

Do you:
-Take less than 8.5 x 5 w/ buyout proof bonuses?
-Or, anchor the value of the contract ask to the Aho offer sheet until July 1st, and if the offer sheet doesn't come after July 1st, re-adjust your strategy?

You are right about two things, offer sheets don't happen because of compensation required, and Aho was an isolated incident.

Guess what teams conditions are similar to the team Aho plays for? The Ottawa Senators. When was the last time we paid a player? We're operating on one of the lowest payrolls relative to the ceiling ever seen in the cap era.

This makes us a perfect target for an Aho style offer sheet to Chabot. The Aho style offer sheet requires significantly LESS compensation than the player is actually worth. That's why Montreal did it.

I've been calling this for months about Chabot, and then it happens to Aho. I'm not special. I'm just a fan on a message board. If I was calling this as a possibility, and the same thing happened to a player on a team with parallel (but probably better finances) than our team, what do you think Chabot's agent who is actually in the know and has more info is doing? He's probably looking forward and predicting the same thing. There's no point in Chabot signing for any less than 8.5 x 5 with bonuses, because looking at everything that happened, anybody can predict there is a very reasonable chance Chabot will be offered that by another team if he hits July 1st 2020 as a free agent.

The only exception would be if things internally aren't as bad as they appear by all accounts, Melnyk is willing to pay 20 million in bonuses, sign stars, spend to the cap (which will be needed to keep our young stars), and this is well known among agents/executives in the NHL. Then the offer sheet becomes a moot point. All discussion has been predicated on the idea that this isn't true. The point of my post isn't to argue whether or not Melnyk is unable to spend, it's to argue that IF he is unable to spend, this is what I think the situation is.

 

[danielpalfredsson]

I can’t imagine a situation where EM doesn’t match below $10 million/year. I doubt any team would give 4 first rounders for him but I worry these numbers will move in the next CBA.

If Chabot gets an offer sheet that isn't four first rounders, Melnyk will match.

It is kind of a trick question though, because if Melnyk cannot match an offer sheet, Chabot should be traded before he becomes a free agent because his trade value even in a soft deal will be much higher than a 1st/2nd/3rd or a 1st/1st/2nd/3rd.

Chabot would have a strong incentive to sign an Aho offer sheet. Roughly 8.5 (whatever the comp. level comes in at next year) x 5 is a very lucrative deal for Chabot. It's a similar cap hit percentage to what all the other superstar RFAs got off of their ELC, except Chabot wouldn't have to give up 7-8 years, he would only have to give up 5 which then would set him up to cash in in his prime.

It's the reason why it was obvious the Aho offer sheet would be matched. Outside of Carolina being mismanaged to a ridiculous level, they would not have left Aho open to an offer sheet on July 1st if they couldn't match the worst case scenario (which is what MTLs offer sheet was, low compensation in picks, high bonuses).

I'm not saying they expected an offer sheet, but they knew it was a possibility, and it would have been incredibly risky to even take a small chance that they could lose a superstar forward for a 1st/2nd/3rd.

 

[Ice-Tray]

You are Chabot's agent....you know the following

-Aho just got an offersheet or about 8.5 x 5
-The offersheet was predicated on the idea that CAR would have trouble with the bonus structure.
-Your player plays for a team that (might) have trouble with the bonus structure.
-Therefore, your player could wait until July 1st 2020 and see if teams take the same approach as with Aho since the situations are parallel.

Do you:
-Take less than 8.5 x 5 w/ buyout proof bonuses?
-Or, anchor the value of the contract ask to the Aho offer sheet until July 1st, and if the offer sheet doesn't come after July 1st, re-adjust your strategy?

You are right about two things, offer sheets don't happen because of compensation required, and Aho was an isolated incident.

Guess what teams conditions are similar to the team Aho plays for? The Ottawa Senators. When was the last time we paid a player? We're operating on one of the lowest payrolls relative to the ceiling ever seen in the cap era.

This makes us a perfect target for an Aho style offer sheet to Chabot. The Aho style offer sheet requires significantly LESS compensation than the player is actually worth. That's why Montreal did it.

I've been calling this for months about Chabot, and then it happens to Aho. I'm not special. I'm just a fan on a message board. If I was calling this as a possibility, and the same thing happened to a player on a team with parallel (but probably better finances) than our team, what do you think Chabot's agent who is actually in the know and has more info is doing? He's probably looking forward and predicting the same thing. There's no point in Chabot signing for any less than 8.5 x 5 with bonuses, because looking at everything that happened, anybody can predict there is a very reasonable chance Chabot will be offered that by another team if he hits July 1st 2020 as a free agent.

The only exception would be if things internally aren't as bad as they appear by all accounts, Melnyk is willing to pay 20 million in bonuses, sign stars, spend to the cap (which will be needed to keep our young stars), and this is well known among agents/executives in the NHL. Then the offer sheet becomes a moot point. All discussion has been predicated on the idea that this isn't true. The point of my post isn't to argue whether or not Melnyk is unable to spend, it's to argue that IF he is unable to spend, this is what I think the situation is.

I get what you’re saying, I do. It seems to me that you keep ignoring the reason WHY Aho signed his offersheet, while also ignoring the fact that Point did not sign. Aho signed because Carolina took an aggressive approach to leverage Aho into a cheap contract due to his inability to leverage himself a better deal, that is the most important part of the whole thing. Had Carolina been trying to negotiate a deal based on his production rather than his contract status, it’s doubtful he even considers signing an offer sheet.

I’m not as worried about this one time bonus situation. I think TC gets matched no matter what, and then things change in the next CBA.

Having said that, I think it’s more likely that TC goes the route of Point than Aho, as long as the team is not trying to string arm him, which given the way they have talked about him it’s extremely doubtful. PD has said numerous times that they are looking for term.

Like I said, there is little reason to assume an offersheet will be offered given all of the actual history we have to look at, and it’s even less likely that he will sign one if offered.

I see little point in worrying about things that have proven to be extremely unlikely to occur. To me this is an extension of the fear that spreads around here each time a college player comes time to sign.

Offer sheets are extremely rare to be offered, and even less likely to be signed. One team making offers does not make a trend.

 

[Sweatred]

4 first rounders is an over pay for 5 years of Chabot. As you mentioned EM prob matches anything less and I doubt any team offers more. 8 years of Stone was worth a single first rounder and EK/MD were a late first plus lesser pieces.

I don’t think loosing him to an offer sheet is a big risk. I’d be more concerned about PD failing to secure him beyond 5 years or possibly trading him in advance of a bonus payout some year for a package less valuable that the offer sheet compensation.

 

[Que]

Personally, I think Chabot has had one foot out the door since the broken locker room season.

Not getting the playing time, Guy, the vibes of the team. All bad. Then watching the trades and the contract “negotiations” unfold followed by more trades. And more trades.

If we have a productive season, as in to say some fans come back, we show improvement on the ice, DJ proved to be a good hire, good chemistry, etc, Thomas might consider staying.

But like Erik - there’s no discount, he’s paid what he’s worth. IMO, anyways.

 

[Sweatred]

Personally, I think Chabot has had one foot out the door since the broken locker room season.

Not getting the playing time, Guy, the vibes of the team. All bad. Then watching the trades and the contract “negotiations” unfold followed by more trades. And more trades.

If we have a productive season, as in to say some fans come back, we show improvement on the ice, DJ proved to be a good hire, good chemistry, etc, Thomas might consider staying.

But like Erik - there’s no discount, he’s paid what he’s worth. IMO, anyways.

I agree - but in fairness no player would want to stay in the environment the team has been in the past few years. A strong rebuild may change things.