Why do "experts" always undervalue the Habs in their offseason predictions?

[NobleSix]

Montreal hasn't iced an above average team in several years. Also no one outside of Montreal cares about the Canadians. Sooo not a surprise.

This is a flat out lie. They have millions of fans world wide and are one of the most popular teams in the NHL.

Gtfo with this trash post.

 

[sandysan]

Yes he actually is. This was proven when he became injured and the habs had the worst record in the NHL.

before price got hurt the projections were that the habs make the playoffs 99%. That one percent came back and bit us in the ass.

The habs only go as far as Price takes them. Where he goes, we go. It's probably not a great strategy to use but I don't think that there in another teams whose fortunes are tied to a single player more than the habs and Carey Price.

 

[Leafidelity]

This is a flat out lie. They have millions of fans world wide and are one of the most popular teams in the NHL.

Gtfo with this trash post.

I think you misunderstood him. I think he mean't to say, nobody is worried about them. Which is true. They're just kind of there. Make some noise in the regular season, then fodder for whoever gets them in the playoffs.

 

[Eyeseeing]

Honestly I think it's nobody expects Price to be able to carry the team like he does most seasons, it's too bad the team never gives him the offense in the post season.
I think the Habs are bubble material this year if Price isn't to his usual form I really do

 

[aufheben]

Because they did it 3 times in the past 5 years with the same core? (Except Weber has replaced Subban and Drouin has replaced one year of Radulov).

Everyone in this thread has explained how this doesn't make sense.

 

[1989]

The Canadiens simply don't have the personnel on the ice or in management to make noise.

I don't have anything against the Habs; they're simply not good enough to be predicted as strong frontrunners for anything other than a somewhat-above mediocre finish and they'd be considered slight underdogs and in general, a surprise if they succeed.

That perception could change but I don't think it's as unjustified as OP makes it out to be regardless of the results. Division winners aren't special in a league of parity. Conference champs, President's Trophy winners at least set themselves apart with a sense of real distinction.

 

[Man Bear Pig]

before price got hurt the projections were that the habs make the playoffs 99%. That one percent came back and bit us in the ass.

The habs only go as far as Price takes them. Where he goes, we go. It's probably not a great strategy to use but I don't think that there in another teams whose fortunes are tied to a single player more than the habs and Carey Price.

I agree. The Habs are so meh across the board. A few notable players and a superstar in Price. If I'm a Habs fan, I'm having a hard time getting excited because even if he stands on his head come playoff time, its hard to see him doing it for multiple rounds. Price IS that team.

 

[wesleysnipe]

Montreal hasn't iced an above average team in several years. Also no one outside of Montreal cares about the Canadians. Sooo not a surprise.

and yet we have 2x your fans bases around the league

 

[wesleysnipe]

Yes, they are literally the definition of mediocre. Know what's more relevant than Montreal's 5on5 stats? Their overall stats, which puts them in the middle of the pack in goals for and only puts them high in GA due to Price.

you make lot of sense habs is a mediocre team they are ''in the middle of the pack in gf and top tier in ga'' but yet they are a mediocre team..who for some magical reason are top tier in wins in the past 5 seasons

 

[syc]

An elite goalie who has only 2 Vezina nomination in the past 5 years. Sure, he's elite, but he's not the sole reason for the team success.

Lol yes it's is!

One thread habs fans tell us price is the best goalie on the planet and the next thread it's habs fans telling us that's true but he's not the reason for them winning games.

my money is on habs fans eating crow stew this year, not the so called experts.

 

[The Winter Soldier]

Price, Weber, and Julien will keep the Habs playoff bound. Can't wait to see how Drouin in his 1st year in Montreal. I can see a good year.

 

[DaPhazz]

The Habs are a mediocre team propped up by an elite goalie.

Pittsburgh without Crosby and Malkin would suck badly...not a good argument pal

 

[DaPhazz]

Because the best team was Tampa. Edit: and Boston.

Apparently not

 

[garyturner3]

Because on paper their roster simply isn't that strong and it hasn't been for a few years, it's not rocket science. However, the equalizer has been Price and he's more than made up for it. It's much safer to assume a star player like Crosby will continue to carry a team compared to a star goalie carrying a team. Goalie is usually a more volatile position and unfortunately if Price even has an average season, the Habs will struggle.

 

[DaPhazz]

Isn't that what you're questioning? The intelligence of the experts?

Unless you have some good evidence why people should have picked Montreal instead of Boston or Tampa, it is exactly the same.

Maybe people suck at evaluating hockey talent and intangibles, who knows

 

[DaPhazz]

Tell us why someone ever would predict they win the division -- aside from 'Carey Price'.

Because someone might want to be right once in a while

 

[lifelonghockeyfan]

Why: They seem to be have declined

Montreal go off to a fast start last year, but after December 1, did not have a good record.
And this year they lost two good players....Markov and Radulov and really got only one in Drouin. Alzner isn't that special.
So just being objective, I can see Tampa easily surpassing the Habs. And so could Leafs, Sens and Bruins.
Habs don't seem to have many cheap ELCs that can come in and be good NHL regulars.

And don't use "Price" as the difference maker. He's been great for years and where has got the Habs? Kinda mediocre maybe a bit more. He's still Price, but the rest of the team isn't better.

And next year Price get's paid 4m more. He's still Price, but won't be any better.

 

[PatrikBerglund]

Montreal is like The Cable Guy.

No one likes them.

 

[LeafGrief]

Last year the Habs came roaring out of the gate, going 8-0-1 in October. They then put up a respectable but unimpressive 39-26-8 for the rest of the season. and were eliminated in the first round.

In 2015/16 the Habs came roaring out of the gate, going 18-4-3 in a staggeringly impressive October/November. Then the wheels came off in historical fashion, and they missed the playoffs by 11 points.

In 2014/15 the Habs were very good all year. They were second in the conference and only three points behind the President's Trophy winning NY Rangers. They were eliminated in the second round by an extremely strong Tampa Bay team.

In 2013/14 the Habs were a solid team and made it all the way to the third round.

In 2012/13 they were a good team team, but eliminated in the first round.

Predictions for the following season are based on what the team did the year prior. The Habs have strung together considerable regular season success over the past five years no doubt, but their playoff success made it clear that there were better teams in the mix. Predicting Tampa or New York to be ahead of Montreal in the standings when they made it to the Cup Final makes way more sense, even if the Habs had an outstanding regular season the year before.

Furthermore, for 2016/17, are you really surprised that only one guy had the Habs picked to win the division when they had a historical collapse the year prior? Frankly, considering how astonishingly bad the Habs were for 3/4's of 2015/16, the experts picking the Habs to finish second or third in the division speaks volumes about how respected the team was and how they were expected to bounce back.

Looking forward to this year, you also start to wonder about the habit of hot starts. While all 103 points from last year count, the mid season doldrums certainly showed that the team has a lot of weaknesses. While adding Julien helped turn around the end of the season, it's clearly a team with a lot of question marks.

 

[DaPhazz]

Montreal is like The Cable Guy.

No one likes them.

You're right, that's typical with legendary teams

 

[tony d]

People do undervalue them. I think if Price is good again this year. The addition of Drouin could help the team. I don't see them winning the division but have them making the playoffs once again.

 

[Archangel]

Here's a challenge for the HFboards community :

I'm challenging you to find any magazine, "expert" or professional website that has predicted the Montreal Canadiens to finish 1st in their division, for any of the last 6 seasons (including the current offseason). Do this knowing that Montreal won their division title for 3 of the last 5 years.

I've done the same research myself, and while it's not exhaustive, the result is really mind blowing. How many expert have predicted a division title for the Habs over the last 5 years?

Answer : ONE! Just a single one!! And a guy I've never heard about. Look at those predictions :

2012-13

What experts predicted :

The Hockey Writers
1- Boston
2- Ottawa
3- Montreal

Bleacher report
1- Boston
2- Buffalo
3- Ottawa
4- Montreal

The Hockey News
1- Boston
2- Buffalo
3- Ottawa
4- Toronto
5- Montreal

2012-13 final standings
1- Montreal
2- Boston
3- Toronto

2013-14

What experts predicted :

The Hockey Writers
1- Boston
2- Detroit
3- Montreal

Bleacher Report
1- Boston
2- Tampa
3- Montreal

The Hockey News
1- Boston
2- Detroit
3- Ottawa
4- Montreal

2013-14 final standings
1- Boston`
2- Tampa
3- Montreal (just 1 point behind Tampa)

2014-15

What experts predicted :

2014-15"]The Hockey Writers
1- Boston
2- Tampa
3- Montreal

Bleacher Report
1- Tampa
2- Boston`
3- Montreal

The Hockey News
1- Boston
2- Tampa
3- Montreal

2014-15 final standings
1- Montreal
2- Tampa
3- Detroit

2015-16

What experts predicted :

The Hockey Writers
1- Tampa
2- Montreal
3- Florida

Bleacher Report
1- Tampa
2- Montreal
3- Ottawa

The Hockey News
1- Tampa
2- Detroit
3- Montreal

TSN
1- Tampa
2- Montreal
3- Detroit

2015-16 final standings
1- Florida
2- Tampa
3- Detroit
4- Boston
5- Ottawa
6- Montreal

2016-17

What experts predicted :

The Hockey Writers
1- Tampa
2- Montreal
3- Florida

Bleacher report
1- Tampa
2- Florida
3- Montreal

The Hockey News
1- Tampa
2- Florida
3- Montreal

TSN
1- Tampa
2- Montreal
3- Florida

ESPN
Out of 10 experts, 10 of them project Tampa to win the division

NHL.COM
Out of 20 experts, 17 project Tampa to win the division. 2 says it's gonna be Florida. And... tadam! You have one guy, the only one I could find in 5 years, who predicted Montreal would win the division. And he was right! Congratulations Rob Vollman!!

2016-17 final standings
1- Montreal
2- Ottawa
3- Boston

And the trend continues this offseason. Despite underestimating the Habs massively for 3 of the last 5 years, I'm still unable to find a single expert who projects the Habs to win their division in 2017-18. They project Tampa, who just missed the playoffs and replaced Drouin with Kunitz. I've seen Toronto, who lost 14 games in a row against Montreal. I've seen Ottawa too. But nobody is taking a chance on Montreal, once again.

So the question is : why are experts so often underestimating the Habs? Here's a few possible answers :

1- Experts underestimate the impact of a star goaltender on the overall result
2- Experts are shy about placing the Habs first, because of what they represent, and because this is a team loaded with emotivity, good and bad. They prefer to take a safe bet and place them 2nd or 3rd every year, so they avoid controversy.
3- The Habs players and coaching staff have been greatly underestimated over the years
4- Habs overachieved 3 years out of 5. I assume this will be a popular option, but it's hard to believe. Habs have the 7th best regular season record in the past 5 years. Such consistent success cannot be overachieving.
5- Any other explanation?

if you are using them as experts you are lowering the classification of experts . try post tsn, thn, sportnest. espn listing for me to take you serious. those experts you posted? are ALL click bait sites that post stupid things to get certain fan bases annoyed

 

[The Winter Soldier]

They will be very competitive this year and if they are overlooked may surprise. I look at their line up and it has the necessary pieces for Julien to coax them into the playoffs again.

Price if he is Price will be a major plus for this.

But this is not a one man team.

Weber is still one of the best #1's in the game.
Drouin and Galchenyuk should have 1 of their better seasons this upcoming year.
PLEKANEC in his final year of his contact should be motivated. Underrated player.
Pacioretty should be better this season.

It's not a perfect team, but I see a team that should make the playoffs if they can stay healthy.

 

[bobholly39]

It's always all about track record for me.

With Price Montreal is a perennial division winner contender. Should be no different this year, and anyone saying otherwise is delusional.

I can't guarantee they win the division. But if Price is healthy and barring any major collapse/injuries - they will 100% be in the running to win the division.

And i'd have them #1 out of all teams in division in terms of likelihood to finish at the top. Tampa may be a strong team on paper but have a lot of consistency issues in the regular season. Both Ottawa and Toronto haven't really proven they can compete for division year in year out. Who else? Boston?

I'm sorry but imo Habs are the favorites for division title again this year.

 

[PatriceBergeronFan]

You're right, that's typical with legendary teams

Nothing legendary about that team in recent decades.